ABCAPITAL trade ideas
The weekly chart of Aditya Birla Capital Ltd
The weekly chart of Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. (ABCAPITAL_1W) on the NSE showcases a significant trendline that has been acting as a robust support level. This trendline, drawn from the lows of late 2022 to mid-2023, has been a critical area where the price has oscillated multiple times, indicating its importance as a support zone.
Recently, the price approached this trendline, testing it multiple times with several candlesticks closing near or on this line. The last few weeks have seen the price bouncing off this support, with three consecutive green candles indicating a potential reversal or at least a pause in the downtrend. This series of green candles suggests renewed buying interest as investors might see this trendline as a buying opportunity.
Today, the price broke through this trendline, which could signal either a continuation of the downtrend if the price closes below this line or a false breakout if it quickly reverses back above it. Given the recent green candles and the historical significance of this trendline, there's a possibility that this could be a buying opportunity for those who believe in the stock's long-term potential.
Volume analysis shows a spike in trading activity around the time the price touched the trendline, which often indicates increased market interest and could precede a significant move. If the price sustains above this trendline, it might attract more buyers, potentially leading to an upward trend. Conversely, if it fails to hold above the line, it could see further declines.
Overall, the chart suggests that the trendline has been a critical level for ABCAPITAL, and its recent interaction with this line could be pivotal for short-term traders and long-term investors alike.
ABCAPITAL TECHNICAL VIEWThe chart shows a daily timeframe for **Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. (NSE)** with a notable **ABCD harmonic pattern**:
### **Key Technical Observations:**
1. **ABCD Pattern:**
- The chart depicts an ABCD bullish harmonic pattern, suggesting a potential reversal from point **D**.
- **Point B** marks a strong support level around **₹185-190**.
- The **potential target (D)** is around **₹230-235**, indicating a bullish price expectation.
2. **Fibonacci Levels:**
- The harmonic pattern is supported by Fibonacci retracements, with point **C** near a retracement level.
- **Point D** aligns with a Fibonacci extension level, further confirming the target zone.
3. **Support & Resistance:**
- **Support Levels**: Around **₹190**, followed by **₹175**.
- **Resistance Levels**: Around **₹202**, **₹230**, and **₹235**.
4. **Risk-Reward Ratio:**
- The stop-loss level appears near **₹175**, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio given the projected upside.
### **Conclusion:**
The stock seems to be in a bullish setup with a target near **₹230-235**. Traders may consider entering near the current price with a stop-loss around **₹175**, but they should monitor broader market conditions and any fundamental news that could impact the trend.
Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. (NSE: ABCAPITAL) Technical AnalysisCurrent Price: ₹201.60 (-0.82%)
Price Target (Jefferies): ₹265, maintained at Buy
Technical Overview
Price Action: The chart reflects a strong support level near ₹197-₹201, where the price is currently hovering. The support zone is reinforced by a trendline that has been respected several times (highlighted with green arrows). This support level aligns with a high-volume node in the volume profile, indicating considerable buying interest around this area.
Volume Profile Analysis: A significant amount of trading activity has occurred around the ₹190-₹200 range, suggesting strong demand. On the upside, high trading volume can also be seen around ₹227 and ₹241, which could act as resistance if the stock attempts an upward move.
Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are providing additional support and resistance signals. The stock is currently trading near its 200-day moving average, which has historically provided solid support. A sustained break below this level could indicate bearish momentum.
Resistance Zones: The stock has encountered resistance around ₹240 (indicated by red arrows), with multiple attempts to break this level failing. This level will be crucial for the next bullish wave, and a breakout above it could lead to a new upward trend.
Key Pattern Observations: A broad ascending triangle pattern is observed, with the stock making higher lows since last year. This bullish structure indicates underlying strength, but a break below the support line could invalidate this pattern.
Technical Indicators
1.RSI: The Relative Strength Index is nearing the oversold territory, suggesting that the stock may be due for a reversal or consolidation phase.
2.Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support : ₹197
Critical Support : ₹190
Resistance Levels: ₹211, ₹227, ₹241
Outlook and Conclusion
With Jefferies setting a revised target of ₹265 and maintaining a Buy rating, there is an optimistic long-term outlook. However, in the short term, the price may continue to consolidate around the ₹190-₹200 support region.
Bullish Scenario: If the stock bounces off the ₹197 level, supported by increased volume, it could make another attempt to reach ₹227 or even test the critical ₹240 resistance.
Bearish Scenario : A sustained break below ₹190 might attract further selling pressure, pushing the stock toward the ₹175 region.
Investment Idea: Traders may look for buy signals around the support zones of ₹190-₹200, with a potential target near ₹227 and ₹240, while maintaining a stop loss slightly below ₹190.
ABCapital Near its ATHOn monthly charts, stock has created inverted head and Shoulder pattern. Stock is consolidating near multiyear resistance and its all-time-high. short term target can be 260. If it sustains above 265, stock can show massive rally towards 450-500. But it will take time. Still, its good entry point if you can hold it for next 3 years.
Disclaimer : this is not stock suggestion. ideas are for educational purpose only.
volume is the key to momentum- ABCAPUnless a big player enters in stock - It is unlikely for stock to come in momentum for a longer period and when a biggie enter it is likely to stop on 5-10%
stock remains in momentum for many months sometimes many years.
HERE i have plotted 3 anchored vwap from point 1-2-3
now understand what does volume says -- it suggest someone who has much more money than an average retail/ who has much more information about business or say much more understanding about company wont bet for 5-10% or say trading...
They bet big
They bet size
your job is to catch momentum - now when will momentum come?
momentum will come when swing will break?
when will swing break - when all short term moving average breaks - all anchored vwap breaks all imp golden ratio breaks
now watch next chart for learning.
this chart is imp
ADITYA BIRLA CAPITAL S/R Support and Resistance Levels: In technical analysis, support and resistance levels are significant price levels where buying or selling interest tends to be strong. They are identified based on previous price levels where the price has shown a tendency to reverse or find support.
Support levels are represented by the green line and green shade, indicating areas where buying interest may emerge to prevent further price decline.
Resistance levels are represented by the red line and red shade, indicating areas where selling pressure may arise to prevent further price increases. Traders often consider these levels as potential buying or selling opportunities.
Breakouts: Breakouts occur when the price convincingly moves above a resistance level (red shade) or below a support level (green shade). A bullish breakout above resistance suggests the potential for further price increases, while a bearish breakout below support suggests the potential for further price declines. Traders pay attention to these breakout signals as they may indicate the start of a new trend or significant price movement.
20 EMA: The yellow line denotes 20 EMA, to interpret the 20 EMA, you need to compare it with the prevailing stock price. If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it signals a possible downtrend. But if the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it signals a possible uptrend.
Disclosure: I am not SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is important to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Tweets neither advice nor endorsement.
ABCAPITAL - Bear Trap ??#abcapital
🎯This could easily be a Bear trap.
🎯Observe that the breakdown came at an immediate support
🎯The immediate next candle is an insider candle pacing the fall
🎯 The breakdown level is at 50WEMA
🎯 If next week's price closes back in the range, We may see a bounce. Especially if we see a long lower wick candle touching the 155 level before shooting back up.
🎯 No good reason for it to correct at this point.
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
buy at zone - intraday / swingINTRADAY CONDITION
- entry inside zone
- sl is day close below zone
- for target draw fib retracement from C to latest swing low , use 0.236 fib as tgt 1 (safe place for intraday), 0.382 as tgt 2 (risk takers).
- don't trade , if u didn't get buying confirmation inside zone
- if day close is below this zone , this pattern becomes invalid.
SWING
this zone marked is potential reversal zone . expecting reversal from that zone.buyers can look for buying confirmation inside the zone.
-- for target , mark fib retracement on C to latest swing low and keep 0.5 fib value as tgt.
-- sl is candle close below zone
-- if candle closed below this zone , this pattern is invalid. ignore this pick