Dollar digests Powell’s ‘dovish’ message The greenback continues to bleed nearly across the board, digesting the unexpectedly “dovish” tone from Pow-ell. The Fed Governor stated that rates were just below neutral range and didn’t mention a future 'gradual path of rate hikes for next year. Such rhetoric made traders worry about the potential pausing hikes in 2019. As a result, the dollar came under aggressive selling pressure which has partially abated in mid-morning trading on Thurs-day.
The message from Powell implies that the buck could lose a strong bullish driver – the monetary policy diver-gence. At the same time, a more measured approach by the Federal Reserve bodes well for riskier assets. But in the short term only. By changing its tone, the Fed admits that the global economy is really cooling and a more substantial slowdown could be in the cards. In this environment, other major central banks may not find solid grounds for hiking rates as well. So, in the longer term, a more cautious stance by the US regulator won’t have a dramatic impact on the buck.
For now, USD will likely remain under some pressure until the dust settles. By the way, negative Brexit devel-opments could help the dollar to recover. After the recent rally, cable clipped below 1.28 as sterling failed to keep the upside momentum ahead of meaningful vote. Further selling pressure from this front may ease the negative sentiment surrounding the greenback.
DOLLAR trade ideas
Fed clips dollar’s wings At the start of a new week, the greenback is trading under a mild selling pressure after a steep decline on Friday. The American currency feels uncomfortable after the Fed officials expressed concerns about global growth. Investors took the recent comments as a signal that the central bank could slow down the process of monetary policy normalization, which discouraged dollar bulls.
Against this backdrop, the December rate hike expectations have declined from over 90% to just 73%, while the 2019 rate hike outlook has shifted as well. So far, the reemerged trade war fears cap the buck’s downside po-tential, but should the Federal Reserve officials confirm their softer stance on policy tightening due to global risks, the trade factor won’t be able to support the USD as its safe-haven status could weaken.
In this context, traders will closely follow comments by New York Fed President John Williams later today. As Williams is considered a centriston monetary policy, his statement could both support and pressure the buck, depending on his position.
In a wider picture, the dollar trading ranges could narrow this week due to a Thanksgiving day effect in FX mar-kets, followed by Black Friday. Amid the heightened uncertainty over the Fed’s position, the path of least re-sistance for the dollar is on the downside.