INDIAVIX trade ideas
India VIX and Nifty Analysis: Last 5 YearsThis is the chart of India VIX (Volatility Index or Fear Index) over the last 5 years. Observations show:
Market Reaction: Whenever VIX rises, the market tends to fall or consolidate.
Historical Insight: From the COVID-19 period to today, this pattern holds true.
Current Scenario: Due to the upcoming election, VIX is suddenly increasing. This suggests the market may either fall or consolidate if the election results do not meet market expectations.
Stay informed and plan your investments accordingly.
Will the India VIX cool down from here?The India VIX recently has a hit a Daily SZ. It has risen from nearly 10% odd levels to greater than 20%. This is not a normal situation for this index. However there are elections in India and there will be a lot of uncertainty in the markets causing the VIX to rise in value. The India VIX and the Nifty are inversely co-related to one another. So if the VIX begins to cool down then this will bring a shift in all the equity indices and force them to move to the upside
[Bearish] INDIA VIX has broken out of long term trendline NSE:INDIAVIX has broken out from long term trendline and the impact was seen on NSE:NIFTY today which took nearly 300 point hit.
If VIX continues to stay above the trendline then chances are we have made a medium term top in NIFTY and next few weeks might result in more red days.
Be cautious if you're carrying longs on any NSE index.
Daily market analysis for tomorrow 11th julyDaily Show on NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, FINNIFTY and USDINR, where we try and predict the market direction for tomorrow by technical analysis, Open Interest (OI) data analysis, FII DII data analysis and much more. This show gives insights into the market and is especially useful if you are a beginner who has just started options trading and wants to learn how to trade using price action and other chart techniques.
Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation, advice, research report, or stock tip of any nature. We are doing this only to understand how to read derivative data and perform technical analysis. Strictly for educational purposes only.
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India VIXHello & welcome to this analysis
As nifty tests (and probably is to move further down) India VIX appears to have bottomed out.
This suggests volatility spike is very likely to happen from here onwards.
VIX spikes lead to gap openings and large candle formations intra day.
There is a high probability that VIX could test 18 & 20 if it sustains above 16.
While it gives fantastic yields when on the correct side of the trend (on a particular session) it can hurt much more if you are on the wrong side of the trade due to gap openings and faster breaks of support/resistance.
Conclusion reduce your derivative exposure for overnight trades and as always keep a stop loss in the terminal and respect it
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Is the VIX giving a warning signHistorically, for the last 10 years, whenever there has been a non confirmation between India VIX and Nifty at new highs or lows, it has been a indication of a change in market direction. So unless the ViX falls to a new low, the last high has not been confirmed.
For reference the VIX chart is inverted
India Vix About to Break Out but needs cooling off for nowAs you can see the Volatility Index of Nifty has leaped and on the verge of shooting through the roof. Therein lies the relief. If you look at Relative Strength Index of the Volatility Index, it has entered the zone from where it generally reverses. Reversing volatility might provide a relief rally or stability to the Index and we might see some buying from various kinds of investors.
Good budget or a budget without any negative news can play a positive role in Indices making a comeback or infusing stability. On many counts the index looks oversold and later on Monday / Tuesday or in that range we might see a rally.
This rally can be short lived as it will face resistance near 17950/18050 range but if that zone is overcome and if Budget has some very positive news for the investors we might see a sharp rally till 18400 or 18800 range.
In case of lackluster budget by Government of India the downside that we might be looking in Nifty can range between another 3 to 7%.
The index within Nifty that looks on the verge of Break Out is Auto Index. It is looking really strong. Tech companies can make a comeback because they have been beaten down the most and they may reflect the light from positivity of NASDAQ.