[J.G.Chemicals Ltd ] CMP 409Date:26-12-2024
Time: 12:12PM
CMP: 409
Report by : Mujadid Saad
Evaluation of J.G. Chemicals Ltd for Long-Term Investment
1. Financial Health
• Revenue Growth: Revenue grew from ₹398 Cr (Mar 2020) to ₹757 Cr (TTM), with a notable dip in FY 2024 (₹666 Cr). TTM shows recovery.
• Net Profit Margin: Improved from ~3.5% (Mar 2020) to ~7.5% (Mar 2024), reflecting better operational efficiency.
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Reduced to 0.03, indicating financial prudence.
• ROE: Declined from 20% (3-year avg.) to 10% last year, suggesting recent inefficiencies.
• Free Cash Flow: Significant positive shift to ₹76 Cr (Mar 2024) from marginal levels earlier.
• EPS: Fluctuating, with recent growth to ₹14.65 (TTM). Dividend payout remains nil.
2. Market Position
• Market Share: Largest zinc oxide manufacturer in India with 30% share; global top 10 producer.
• Competitive Positioning: Leader in the sector, leveraging advanced French process technology.
• Customer Loyalty & Innovation: Stable but needs further emphasis on innovative applications for diversification.
3. Management and Governance
• Leadership Track Record: Stable leadership but lacking aggressive expansion strategies.
• Governance: No significant red flags, though dividend policy may signal management conservatism.
• Litigation/Ethical Concerns: No notable controversies observed.
4. Industry Trends
• Growth Outlook: Positive, driven by increased demand for zinc oxide in industrial and cosmetic applications.
• Emerging Trends: Limited focus on ESG initiatives and digital transformation, which are becoming critical in global markets.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Vulnerable to commodity price volatility, regulatory changes, and inflation.
5. Risk Analysis
• Market Volatility: Sensitive to zinc price fluctuations.
• Operational Inefficiencies: Decline in recent ROE and revenue suggests areas of improvement.
• Geopolitical Factors: Export reliance makes it prone to global trade dynamics and regulatory risks.
6. Valuation
• P/E Ratio: At 29.9, below industry average (34.6), indicating reasonable valuation.
• P/B Ratio: Higher than peers but supported by leadership position.
• Overall: Stock appears fairly valued with potential for growth.
7. Performance Metrics
• ROI/ROA: Moderately improving; needs consistent growth.
• CAGR: Sales CAGR at ~15% (3 years); profit CAGR at ~12%.
• Achievements: Market leader with improved cash flow and reduced debt.
Investment Decision: Yes
Justification:
1. Market Leadership: Dominant position with 30% market share in India.
2. Financial Prudence: Strong debt reduction and improving cash flows.
3. Valuation: Fairly valued relative to peers with potential upside as industry demand grows.
4. Growth Prospects: Supported by recovery trends in revenue and net profit.
Recommendations for Further Due Diligence:
• Analyze customer concentration risks and reliance on exports.
• Assess plans for diversification and ESG adoption.
• Monitor upcoming quarterly results for sustained recovery in financials.
