CHANNAL PATTERN - KAJARIACERTechnical Analysis:
Current Price: ₹1,003.9
Target: ₹4,000. This is a very ambitious long-term target, implying a substantial increase.
"History Repeat Based": Identified a historical pattern that, if repeated, could lead to such a significant price move.
Time Frame: 1 Year to 3 Year (indicates a long-term investment horizon for the target).
Trendline Support and Parallel Channel Pattern: These are bullish technical indicators. Trendline support suggests that the stock is finding buyers at a certain level, preventing further declines. A parallel channel typically indicates a sustained trend within defined upper and lower boundaries; a breakout from such a channel can signify an acceleration of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis :
Market Cap: ₹15,984 Cr.
Current Price: ₹1,004
Stock P/E: 46.8 (Higher than the Industry P/E, indicating a premium valuation)
Key Fundamental Observations:
Valuation Premium: Kajaria Ceramics trades at a P/E of 46.8, which is higher than the industry P/E of 40.2. It is also significantly above its intrinsic value and Graham Number. This suggests the market is pricing in substantial future growth or recognizing its brand strength/market position.
Declining Profitability: The negative profit growth of -17.9% and the decline in EPS from the preceding year (₹26.5 down to ₹18.5) and also from the previous quarter (₹4.88 down to ₹2.67) are significant concerns. This indicates a recent slowdown or reversal in earnings.
Strong Financial Health: Very low Debt to Equity (0.10) is a positive sign of strong balance sheet management. ROCE (16.8%) and ROE (12.8%) are decent, but could be better given the high valuation.
Shareholding Pattern:
Promoters: Stable around 47.49% as of Mar 2025.
FIIs: Have decreased their stake from 23.38% (Mar 2017) to 15.79% (Mar 2025), with some fluctuations.
DIIs: Have consistently increased their stake from 5.76% (Mar 2017) to 27.68% (Mar 2025). This strong DII buying is a positive sign.
Public: Decreased from 23.47% (Mar 2017) to 9.06% (Mar 2025).
No. of Shareholders: Increased from 37,855 (Mar 2017) to 89,567 (Mar 2025), indicating increasing retail participation.
Balance Sheet:
Consistent Growth: Total Assets have steadily increased from ₹1,176 Cr (Mar 2014) to ₹3,756 Cr (Mar 2025). Total Liabilities have also grown but seem managed.
Reserves: Growing steadily from ₹514 Cr (Mar 2014) to ₹2,728 Cr (Mar 2025), indicating reinvested profits.
Borrowings: Have fluctuated but remained relatively low compared to overall size, reaching ₹274 Cr in Mar 2025.
Corporate Action & Latest News:
Recent news would primarily focus on the company's latest quarterly results (which, as per your data, show a decline in EPS and profit growth).
Any announcements regarding capacity expansion, new product launches, or market share gains would be relevant.
Given its position in the building materials sector, news on real estate demand, construction activity, and government infrastructure spending would impact its outlook.
Overall Assessment:
Technical analysis of Trendline Support and Parallel Channel Pattern suggests a bullish outlook for Kajaria Ceramics. However, the fundamental picture shows some conflicting signals:
Positive: Strong balance sheet with low debt, increasing DII participation, growing shareholder base, and a history of growth in assets/reserves.
Negative: High valuation (P/E above industry, above intrinsic value), and importantly, a significant negative trend in profit growth and EPS (both year-on-year and sequentially in the latest quarter).
Target of ₹4000 (1-3 years): This is an extremely ambitious target, requiring a nearly 4x increase from the current price. While "history repeat" can be a valid technical argument, it would require a significant turnaround in the company's profitability to fundamentally support such a valuation in the long term, especially given the current negative profit growth.
Conclusion:
While the technical patterns you've identified could indicate short to medium-term upward movement, the long-term target of ₹4000 seems very aggressive given the recent fundamental trends of declining profit and EPS. For such a target to be plausible, Kajaria Ceramics would need to demonstrate a strong and sustained turnaround in its earnings performance in the coming quarters/years.
Considerations:
Confirm Technical's: Ensure the trendline support and parallel channel patterns are clearly established and holding on the chart.
Monitor Fundamentals Closely: Pay very close attention to upcoming quarterly results. A reversal of the negative profit growth trend is essential to support higher valuations.
Risk vs. Reward: Evaluate the risk involved, especially with a stock trading at a premium valuation while showing declining profitability.
KAJARIACER trade ideas
KAJARIA CERAMICS GOING TO FLYKajaria Ceramics' daily technical chart suggests a neutral trend, with key indicators showing mixed signals.
Key Technical Indicators
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently in a neutral zone, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
- Moving Averages: The stock is hovering around its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting consolidation.
- Support & Resistance Levels:
- Resistance: ₹873.17, ₹890.58
- Support: ₹841.58, ₹824.17
- Momentum Indicators: Show sideways movement, with no strong bullish or bearish signals.
Market Sentiment
- Analysts suggest watching for a breakout above ₹890 for a bullish trend.
- If the stock falls below ₹824, it may indicate further downside potential.
Would you like insights on potential trading strategies based on this analysis?
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. has seen a significant surge in trading volume, with 2.25 lakh shares traded on the BSE as of May 13, 2025. This represents a 10.99-fold increase compared to its two-week average daily volume of 20,456 shares.
The spike in volume suggests strong market interest, possibly driven by technical movements or investor sentiment shifts. Would you like insights on whether this volume surge indicates a potential breakout or trend reversal?
Analysts have set short-term targets for Kajaria Ceramics based on technical and fundamental analysis:
- Emkay Global Financial maintains a BUY rating with a target price of ₹1,050, citing market share gains and expected profitability improvements.
- Prabhudas Lilladher has downgraded its rating to ACCUMULATE, with a target price of ₹878, citing weak demand and margin contraction.
- Technical Analysis suggests potential short-term targets of ₹931.71, ₹943.35, and ₹953.77, based on historical price action.
Kajaria Ceramics: Moving in rising wedge channelStock is moving in this rising wedge. Currently is at support level of the wedge
From here if it breaks and sustains the weekly High, then it can continue its journey for Upper band.
DISC: Not a buy or sell advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decision.
KAJARIACER - Bullish Consolidation BreakoutNSE: KAJARIACER is closing with a bullish consolidation breakout candle supported with volumes.
Today's volumes and candlestick formation indicates strong demand and stock should move to previous swing highs in the coming days.
The stock has been moving along the horizontal support for the past few days which is indicating demand.
One can look for a 8% to 12% gain on deployed capital in this swing trade.
The view is to be discarded in the event of the stock breaking previous swing low.
#NSEindia #Trading #StockMarketindia #Tradingview #SwingTrade
Having Kajaria Ceramics, in the portfolio mix can be beneficial.Entry in Kajaria Ceramics can be taken after closing above 1082. Targets will be 1173 and 1274. Long term target (12 to 14 months) in Kajaria Ceramics will be 1353. Stop Loss should be maintained at closing below 880. Kajaria Ceramics is a medium to long term investment idea. Negative aspect of the stock is valuation as the stock trends at a PE of 44.2. The positive aspect of the stock is that it is a low debt company with Zero promoter pledge where MFs and FIIs are increasing their stake. The momentum in price is strong, Annual Net profits are increasing and net cash flow of the company is also increasing.
KAJARIACERNSE:KAJARIACER
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offered to any person(s) with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks / futures and options.
You are also requested to apply your prudence and consult your advisers in case you choose to act on
any such content available as WE claims no responsibilities for any of your actions or any outcome of
such action
KAJARIACERNSE:KAJARIACER
please note that we are not a SEBI Registered Investor Adviser/PMS/ Broking House.
All the contents over here are for educational purposes only and are not investment advice or recommendations
offered to any person(s) with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks / futures and options.
You are also requested to apply your prudence and consult your advisers in case you choose to act on
any such content available as WE claims no responsibilities for any of your actions or any outcome of
such action