UPL LTD stock forum
UPL The company sold a stake in Advanta seeds to raise 350mil. Also announced a Rights issue to raise another 400mil. Record date is 26Nov. Rights issue opens on 5Dec and closes on 17Dec. Shareholders can sell their Rights between 5 and 11 Dec.Eligible shareholders are those held by Public (64%) => 48Cr shares out of 75Cr total. Rights issue will add about 9.383Cr shares which is about 20% of 48Cr shares. The CMP has been moving up and currently is at 575. Look at the table below to see how Rights issue affects the share price. Let's say Y = Cost per share after Rights. Since the Rights is 1 share for every 8 shares held, the equation is: Y = (8*CMP+360)/9
Discount is CMP-₹360. Rights Profit is for those who sell off their Rights.
CMP Y Gain Gain% Discount Rights Profit
500 484 16 3.20% 140 28.00%
525 507 18 3.20% 165 28.00%
550 529 21 3.20% 190 28.00%
575 551 24 3.20% 215 28.00%
600 573 27 3.20% 240 28.00%
625 596 29 3.20% 265 28.00%
Now does 3.2% sound like a terrific advantage to buy the share to get Rights issue?
Or does 28% sound better for a short term investment in Rights? This certainly implies that much of the Rights issue will be sold in the period between 5 and 11 Dec. That's 9.383cr shares to sell. Sounds like a Xmas gift to FIIs and DIIs who are holding the shares anyway for long term to book a short term 28% profit on 13% additional investment to buy Rights.
"I feel it's a good bet to buy some UPL puts :)"
UPL The company has announced a Rights issue of 1 share at ₹360 for every 8 shares held at cmp ₹550. They call it at a 34% discount but is it really?8 shares at ₹550 = ₹4400 + 1 share at ₹360 = 9 shares at ₹4760
That gives per share price of ₹529! I, for one, am not thrilled at the prospect. I got out of my investment in UPL pronto. I think I will have more opportunities to buy it later at a better price to hold it for long term. Adios
UPL In a bear market, UPL posts bad results and gets hammered to 504 level. The stock sees a lot of buying indicating an expectance of Rights announcement at a fair value probably between 450-500 bringing their cost down. But how far down?Rights issue is now expected to be $400 million (instead of 500m) so around rs.340crs. A price of 450 means 10% additional shares, that of 500 means 8A% more shares to current total of 75crs. Either way the eventual price adjustment points to below 500. It usually takes 3-5 months for the Rights shares to show up in your a/c so we're looking at Mar25 or end of fy25 timeframe.
The management commentary makes it safe to assume that it'll take most of fy26 for the company to get out of the hole it's in. My question is why buy now if I can get it cheaper by fy25 end (unless you're looking at 2-yr min timeframe)?
UPL Great short idea here..460 to 420 soon. Nifty50 exit will have 105 million dollars of outflow …that’s 850 crore. Imagine the impact
UPL UPL Extends Fall After Posting First Quarterly Loss: Street Wrap
· UPL extended declines to a 10th day after the Indian agrochemicals maker posted a surprise quarterly loss Monday due to lower demand for its products in Latin America.
· The firm also guided for a flat revenue this year through March versus its earlier estimate of 1%-5% growth.
· The stock has plunged 26% this year, second worst performer among Nifty 50 companies
UPL bearish
UPL looks a decent bullish setup at the bottom of the 1M wedge , but the weekly and monthly TF chart looks sideways 
