Nice bearish posture in crude oilBacktesting that Daily trend line with a few top dots on this 4hr chart. Good posture to dump some points here so they can reload lower. Big money always wins, and they almost always come back for that liquidity.
3A1! trade ideas
Options Blueprint Series: Credit Spreads for Weekly PlaysIntroduction
Credit spreads are a sophisticated options strategy involving the simultaneous purchase and sale of options of the same class and expiration, but at different strike prices. This approach is particularly effective in scenarios where the trader seeks to capitalize on premium decay while maintaining controlled risk exposure. Commonly used in volatile markets, credit spreads can offer a strategic advantage by allowing traders to position themselves in accordance with their market outlook and risk tolerance.
Understanding Credit Spreads
Selling one option and buying another with the same expiration date but different strike prices is done to earn the premium (credit) received from selling the higher-priced option, offset by the cost of buying the lower-priced option. There are two main types of credit spreads: Call Spreads and Put Spreads, specifically Bull Put Spreads and Bear Call Spreads.
Bull Put Spreads: This strategy involves selling a put option with a higher strike price (receiving a premium) and buying a put option with a lower strike price (paying a premium), both on the same underlying asset and expiration. The trader anticipates that the asset's price will stay above the higher strike price at expiration, allowing them to keep the premium collected. This spread is termed "bull" because it profits from a bullish or upward-moving market.
Bear Call Spreads: Conversely, this strategy involves selling a call option with a lower strike price (receiving a premium) and buying a call option with a higher strike price (paying a premium). The expectation here is that the asset's price will remain below the lower strike price at expiration. This spread is called "bear" because it benefits from a bearish or downward-moving market.
Easy Way to Remember:
Bull Put Spread: Remember it as "selling insurance" on a stock you wouldn't mind owning. You're betting the stock price stays "bullish" or at least doesn't drop significantly.
Bear Call Spread: Think of it as "calling the top" on a stock. You're predicting that the stock won't go any higher, demonstrating a "bearish" outlook.
Risk Profile
The below graph illustrates the risk profile of a Bull Put Spread (Bullish Credit Spread that uses Puts):
WTI Crude Oil Options Contract Specifications
WTI Crude Oil options offer traders the opportunity to manage price risks in the highly volatile crude oil market. Key contract specifications include:
Point Value: Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil, with each point of movement equivalent to $1,000.
Trading Hours: Options trading is available from Sunday to Friday, providing extensive access to market participants around the globe.
Margin Requirements: Initial margins are set by the exchange and are adjusted according to market volatility. USD 6,281 at the time of this publication (based on the CME Group website).
Credit Spread Margin Calculation: For credit spreads, margins are typically lower as the margin for a credit spread in WTIC Crude Oil options is calculated based on the risk of the position, which is the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received. This calculation ensures that the trader has sufficient funds to cover the potential maximum loss. (for example: a spread using the 78.5 and the 77.5 strikes which are 1 point away would require USD 1,000 minus the credit received).
Understanding these specifications is crucial for traders looking to employ credit spreads effectively, ensuring compliance with financial requirements and alignment with trading strategies.
Application to WTIC Crude Oil Options
Credit spreads are particularly suited to the Weekly Expiration WTIC Crude Oil Options due to their ability to capitalize on the oil market's frequent price fluctuations. The strategy's effectiveness is enhanced by the oil market's characteristics:
Market Dynamics: Crude oil prices are influenced by a myriad of factors including geopolitical events, supply-demand dynamics, and changes in global economic indicators. These factors can lead to significant price movements, creating opportunities for options traders.
Strategy Suitability: Given the volatile nature of crude oil, credit spreads allow traders to take a directional stance (bullish or bearish) while limiting risk to the difference between the strike prices minus the credit received. This is particularly advantageous in a market where sudden price swings can occur, as it provides a safety buffer in case WTI Crude Oil moves against the trader and then comes to back towards the desired direction.
By employing credit spreads, traders can leverage such market characteristics to potentially enhance returns while maintaining a clear risk management framework.
Forward-looking Trade Idea
For above TradingView price chart presents a trade setup as we consider the current market conditions and employ a put credit spread strategy, focusing on two UFO (UnFilled Orders) Support Price Levels that indicate potential support below the current market price of WTIC Crude Oil Futures. These levels suggest that prices are unlikely to drop below these thresholds anytime soon.
Trade Setup: Utilize the 78.5 and 77.5 put strike prices for the credit spread.
Sell a put option at the 78.5 strike price, where we expect the market will not fall below and collect 0.13 points (USD 130).
Buy a put option at the 77.5 strike price to limit downside risk and define the trade’s maximum loss and pay 0.07 points (USD 70).
Premium Collected: The credit received from this spread is the difference in premiums between the sold and bought puts, which contributes to the overall profitability if the options expire worthless. The net credit collected is USD 60 (130-70).
Expected Outcome: The best scenario is for WTIC Crude Oil prices to stay above the 78.5 strike at expiration, allowing the trader to retain the full premium collected while minimizing risk.
As seen on the above screenshot, we are using the CME Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
This trade is predicated on the belief that the underlying crude oil price will remain stable or increase, ensuring that the prices do not fall to the strike price of the sold put, thereby maximizing the potential for profit from the premiums.
Risk Management
Effective risk management is crucial when employing credit spreads in trading. Given the defined risk nature of credit spreads, several strategies can be implemented:
Position Sizing: Adjust the number of spreads to fit within the overall risk tolerance of the trading portfolio, ensuring that potential losses do not exceed pre-determined thresholds.
Stop-Loss Orders: Although credit spreads have a built-in maximum loss, setting stop-loss orders based on market price can help lock in profits or prevent excessive losses in volatile market conditions.
Monitoring: Regular monitoring of market conditions and adjusting positions as necessary can help manage risks associated with unexpected market movements.
Conclusion
Credit spreads offer a strategic advantage for options traders looking to leverage market movements while controlling risk. By focusing on premium collection and employing a disciplined approach to risk management, traders can enhance their chances of success in the volatile WTIC Crude Oil options market.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Crude Oil WednesdayToday On the Daily I am in confliction with bias meaning that it could be changing soon if we repeat another bullish closing day.
For this I have dropped down onto the 4hr TF and the most recent 4hr -ob is what I will be referencing as to Bullish or Bearish intra day PA.
Scalpers Market atm
If you un sure, sit still.
We did close above the Daily v.i as I have mentioned in my previous posts... so my bias for 80.50 is in jeopardy but as a trader your mind must be dynamic.
As I said sit still or scalp but not in the middle.
Crude Oil Makes a Higher LowCrude-oil futures have been climbing all year, and some traders may see further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the March 6 high of 80.67. CL1! Bounced there two weeks later, potentially turning old resistance into new support. That’s could be a bullish signal.
Prices then rallied to a new six-month high near 88 before pulling back. They bottomed on Monday at 80.70. That slightly higher low on the weekly time frame may suggest an uptrend is taking shape.
Next, stochastics are rebounding from an oversold condition.
Finally, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in early April. That may also suggest prices are turning higher over the longer term.
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Crude OilPair : Crude Oil
Description :
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of Upper Trend Line
S / R Level
WTI looks set to bounce above $80Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone.
A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near.
A bounce to $84 could be on the cards as part of a technical retracement against its prior move lower. Bulls could enter live around current levels with a stop beneath $80, or seek dips towards it in anticipation of an eventual move higher to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
QM (OIL)QM - Emini Crude Oil Futures.
Here where we are.
IF oil don't break support - it's going higher...
Oil/Crude oil - TuesdaySo we have achieved one target for price and that was to reach the Daily V.i and so far London has rejected going higher...
Would like to see price head down post 0930est
My target is still 80.50 just waiting for price to align with my thoughts is what is most important before pressing the button.
At minimum PDL would be a bearish target
I don't see why we would want to go higher until proven wrong - Closing above the Daily V.i...
Thanks
looking for shorting opportunitythere could be shorting while day tf is in uptrend, lets see from where the price gets rejected....
how we'll take this chance? BUY: 65.55
TP: 83.59
SL: 64.30
-If trade is higher 89.18, trade will be cancel & another entry area will update
26mar'24 19
Oil rises in early Asian tradingOil rises in early Asian trading, Middle East tensions remain in focus
Oil prices edged higher in early Asian trading on Tuesday, reversing losses from the previous session, as investors continued to assess the risk from geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.39 a barrel by 0033 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.30 a barrel.
Both benchmarks fell 29 cents in the previous session on signs that a recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran had little near-term impact on oil supplies from the region.
USOIL HTF Daily Rejection Candle indicating us to go SHORT...?NYMEX:CL1!
“If my mind can conceive it and my heart can believe it - then I can achieve it.” - Muhammad Ali
HOUSE CALL for a potential SHORT this week.....This is simple what I'll be looking for!
1) On the Daily TF we have a HUGE rejection Candle at the Daily Resistance leave $84.00 Per Barrell and now Price is currently trading above this Daily Demand Zone that I eventually want to see fail...
2) If and when this Daily Demand Zone fails then I want to see candle closures underneath on the 30m TF & below....
3) Also If this Daily Demand Fails then the Price for OIL will fall underneath $80.00 Per Barrel in which is a big psychological Institution # within the Markets, so I was taught!!
4) If we can get the sequence of events to take place as I stated above then I'll be compelled to enter SHORT off the retest of $80.00 Per Barrel & cover the high for my stop.... Ill be targeting the next Major Un-Mitigated Daily Demand Zone below which is around pricing $77.75 Per Barrel... Roughly around 225 pts in our Favor, we can secure +2.5-3R % Gain depending on your given management system...ALSO once price breaks underneath $80.00 Per Barrel and we have confirmed candle closures underneath on the 30m TF & Below, price also need to be trading underneath the RED V-Wap as a last min. confirmation as its always a higher probable trade when we are trading in favor of the V-Wap IMO>>>
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our Job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
One more shove down before blastoff...?This can get a "c" wave down to the area on the chart, then begin a very bullish wave 5. One step at a time though! Looking for confirmation of a low somewhere between 618 and 886 fibs.
CL-Oil Moving forward..This week I have a eye on 80.50 for price to reach.
We have closed in the weekly fvg and now lying within a Daily FVG and Daily V.i
The Daily V.i is important to reference as Monday we can trade higher into this.
price is at crucial spot81.81-82.30 can play pivotal role for the next movement, if trade above, then 85.25 could be its target zone and if trade below, then oil can reach 78.81
Oil settles slightly higher as Iran plays down reported Israeli Oil settled slightly higher on Friday, but posted a weekly decline, after Iran played down a reported Israeli attack on its soil, a sign that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East might be avoided.
Brent futures settled up 18 cents, or 0.21%, at US$87.29 a barrel.
The front-month US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May ended 41 cents higher, or 0.5%, to US$83.14 a barrel. The more active June contract closed 12 cents higher at US$82.22 a barrel.
Both benchmarks spiked more than US$3 a barrel earlier in the session after explosions were heard in the Iranian city of Isfahan in what sources described as an Israeli attack. However, the gains were capped after Tehran played down the incident and said it did not plan to retaliate.
Investors had been closely monitoring Israel's response to Iranian drone and missile attacks on April 13 that was in turn a response to a presumed Israeli air strike on April 1 that destroyed a building in Iran's embassy compound in Damascus.
Meanwhile, US lawmakers have added sanctions on Iran's oil exports to a pending Ukraine aid package after Tehran's strike on Israel last weekend.
Iran is the third largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), according to Reuters data.
Oil is back into the rodeo areaAnd we are back into the dancing area. Of course the price went up because the news of the war, let's see tomorrow how the prices will dance, if in their "safety area" between 84.01 for longs and 87.60 for shorts... or will be up following Arabia Saudita wishes on 100
Oil leading to end of week.So as in my previous forecast we have now closed daily bellow the Weekly FVG
My next target will be 80.50 by end of week.
Thats it for this week.... :)
Why Is Today's Low Crucial For Crude Oil?Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.15, down 2.68
June WTI Crude Oil futures are now front month and our levels are updated below. A sharp move, in this case the two-day drop, is not uncommon during times of roll and post option expiration as Crude Oil tends to cleanse positioning. With geopolitics front and center as the weekend approaches, major three-star support was tested head on at 80.78-81.06. This aligns with the gap close and gap open after a pennant consolidation from March 20th through March 27th.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 82.70-82.82**, 83.32-83.44***, 84.01-84.39***
Pivot: 82.01-82.15
Support: 81.45**, 80.78-81.11***, 80.12***, 78.80-79.02***, 78.01-78.43
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Geopolitical Conflicts and Markets - Market outperform the rest!Which market is a better hedge when a geopolitical conflict started. I know many will say that it must be crude oil. Over the past 2 major conflicts, we could see that crude oil did not gain any momentum, in fact it came off.
So which markets have reacted positively to all these tensions so far, and will continue to remain this way with future tensions?
My name is Kon How, my work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities.
2-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
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Scalpers paradise is a thingLet's see where we are by the 5-7am EST window. This view is a combination of Elliott Wave analysis and supply/demand zones. Can be a powerful combo for scalping.
