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4A1! trade ideas

Crude's Big BaseCrude Oil (September) Last week’s close: Settled at 76.84, up 0.65 on Friday and 3.32 on the week Crude Oil futures are higher by about 1% as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East run hot and Israel prepares for an attack by Iran. Inflation data from China Thursday night was also stronger than expected, and there seems to be positive momentum amid such a narrative, and we brace for data on New Loans overnight tonight. Price action in WTI Crude Oil futures finished last week strong, clearing previous resistance, which now creates two areas of major three-star support. The first aligns previous resistance with Thursday’s high at 76.40-76.52. The second is a potential floor aligning with Wednesday’s volume spike and Friday’s low 75.84-75.95. Ultimately, we will be watching our Pivot and point of balance closely, and continued action above this level at 76.84-76.87, will encourage a test towards $80. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 77.63***, 78.88-79.03**, 80.76**, 81.30*** Pivot: 76.84-76.87 Support: 76.40-76.52***, 75.84-75.95***, 75.12-75.27***, 74.45-74.60**, 73.96**, 73.46-73.56**, 72.74-72.94***, 72.23-72.42***, 70.703**, 70.00*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Decoding Money Flow within Markets to Anticipate Price DirectionI. Introduction In the intricate world of financial markets, understanding the flow of capital between different assets is paramount for traders and investors aiming to anticipate price movements. Money doesn't move haphazardly; it often follows patterns and trends influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and inter-market relationships. This article delves into the concept of money flow between markets, specifically analyzing how volume movements in one market can influence price directions in another. Our focus centers on two pivotal markets: the 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZN1!) and the Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!). Additionally, we'll touch upon other significant markets such as ES1! (E-mini S&P 500 Futures), GC1! (Gold Futures), 6E1! (Euro FX Futures), BTC1! (Bitcoin Futures), and ZC1! (Corn Futures) to provide a comprehensive view. By employing the Granger Causality test—a statistical method used to determine if one time series can predict another—we aim to unravel the nuanced relationships between these markets. Through this exploration, we aspire to equip readers with insights and methodologies that can enhance their trading strategies, particularly in anticipating price directions based on volume dynamics. II. Understanding Granger Causality Granger Causality is a powerful statistical tool used to determine whether one time series can predict another. While it doesn't establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship in the strictest sense, it helps identify if past values of one variable contain information that can predict future values of another. In the context of financial markets, this can be invaluable for traders seeking to understand how movements in one market might influence another. Pros and Cons: Predictive Power: It provides a systematic way to determine if one market’s past behavior can forecast another’s, helping traders anticipate potential market movements. Quantitative Analysis: Offers a statistical basis for analyzing market relationships, reducing reliance on subjective judgment. Lag Dependency: The test is dependent on the chosen lag length, which may not capture all relevant dynamics between the series. Not True Causality: Granger Causality only suggests a predictive relationship, not a true cause-and-effect mechanism. III. Understanding Money Flow via Granger Causality The data used for this analysis consists of daily volume figures for each of the seven markets described above, spanning from January 1, 2018, to the present. While the below heatmap presents results for different lags, we will focus on a lag of 2 days as we aim to capture the short-term predictive relationships that exist between these markets. Key Findings The results of the Granger Causality test are presented in the form of a heatmap. This visual representation provides a clear, at-a-glance understanding of which markets have predictive power over others. Each cell in the matrix represents the p-value of the Granger Causality test between a "Cause" market (row) and an "Effect" market (column). Lower p-values (darker cell) indicate a stronger statistical relationship, suggesting that the volume in the "Cause" market can predict movements in the "Effect" market. Key Observations related to ZN1! (10-Year T-Note Futures): The heatmap shows significant Granger-causal relationships between ZN1! volume and the volumes of several other markets, particularly CL1! (Light Crude Oil Futures), where the p-value is 0, indicating a very strong predictive relationship. This suggests that an increase in volume in ZN1! can reliably predict subsequent volume changes in CL1!, which aligns with our goal of identifying capital flow from ZN1! to CL1! In this case. IV. Trading Methodology With the insights gained from the Granger Causality test, we can develop a trading methodology to anticipate price movements in CL1! based on volume patterns observed in ZN1!. Further Volume Analysis with CCI and VWAP 1. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): CCI is a versatile technical indicator that when applied to volume, measures the volume deviation from its average over a specific period. In this methodology, we use the CCI to identify when ZN1! is experiencing excess volume. Identifying Excess Volume: The CCI value for ZN1! above +100 suggests there is an excess of buying volume. Conversely, when CL1!’s CCI is below +100 while ZN1! is above +100, it implies that the volume from ZN1! has not yet transferred to CL1!, potentially signaling an upcoming volume influx into CL1!. 2. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP represents the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. Predicting Price Direction: If Today’s VWAP is Above Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario indicates that the market's average trading price is increasing, suggesting bullish sentiment. In this case, if ZN1! shows excess volume (CCI above +100), we would expect CL1! to make a higher high tomorrow. If Today’s VWAP is Below Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario suggests bearish sentiment, with the average trading price declining. Here, if ZN1! shows excess volume, we would expect CL1! to make a lower low tomorrow. Application of the Methodology: Step 1: Identify Excess Volume in ZN1!: Using the CCI, determine if ZN1! is above +100. Step 2: Assess CL1! Volume: Check if CL1! is below +100 on the CCI. Step 3: Use VWAP to Confirm Direction: Compare today’s VWAP to yesterday’s. If it’s higher, prepare for a higher high in CL1!; if it’s lower, prepare for a lower low. This methodology combines statistical insights from the Granger Causality test with technical indicators to create a structured approach to trading. V. Case Studies: Identifying Excess Volume and Anticipating Price Direction Case Study 1: May 23, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +265.11 CL1!: CCI was at +12.84. VWAP: Below the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A lower low was made. Case Study 2: June 28, 2024 Charts for this case study are at the top of the article. Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +175.12 CL1!: CCI was at -90.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. Case Study 3: July 11, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +133.39 CL1!: CCI was at +0.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. These case studies underscore the practical application of the trading methodology in real market scenarios. VI. Conclusion The exploration of money flow between markets provides valuable insights into how capital shifts can influence price movements across different asset classes. The trading methodology developed around this relationship, utilizing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) to measure excess volume and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to confirm price direction, offers a systematic approach to capitalizing on these inter-market dynamics. Through the case studies, we demonstrated the practical application of this methodology, showing how traders can anticipate higher highs or lower lows in CL1! based on volume conditions observed in ZN1!. Key Takeaways: Granger Causality: This test is an effective tool for uncovering predictive relationships between markets, allowing traders to identify where capital might flow next. CCI and VWAP: These indicators, when used together, provide a robust framework for interpreting volume data and predicting subsequent price movements. Limitations and Considerations: While Granger Causality can reveal important inter-market relationships, it is not without its limitations. The test's accuracy depends on the chosen lag lengths and the stationarity of the data. Additionally, the CCI and VWAP indicators, while powerful, are not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools. Traders should remain mindful of the broader market context, including economic events and geopolitical factors, which can influence market behavior in ways that statistical models may not fully capture. Additionally, effective risk management practices are crucial, as they help mitigate potential losses that may arise from unexpected market movements or the limitations of any predictive models. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
Weekly Top Down ANALYSIS, can we SHORT from DAILY SUPPLY...?NYMEX:CL1! “Those times when you get up early and you work hard; those times when you stay up late and you work hard; those times when you don’t feel like working, you’re too tired, you don’t want to push yourself, but you do it anyway; that is actually the dream. That’s the dream. It’s not the destination, it’s the journey.” -Kobe Bryant #24/8 I have a neutral outlook this week on OIL due to the PA on the Weekly on TF... As you can see on the Weekly TF price just rejected the Weekly SWING EQ LEVEL ($74.35) Per Barrel. However when we drop down to the Daily TF, we have now officially entered the DAILY Supply Zone ($76.25) as buyers pushed price up to mitigate the the DAILY SWING EQ LEVEL ($77.00) Per Barrel based off the structure of PA.... NOW, ***THE MILLION DOLLA QUESTION is, Will Daily Supply / Daily EQ Level ($77.00) Per Barrel. HOLD Nd sellers push for lower prices? 1) On the 15m TF if we can get this current 30m Demand to Fail and we get a 15m CHoCh with sellers pushing price down past ($76.48) Per Barrel with confirmed candle closures underneath on the 30m TF N below then I'll be compelled to ENTER SHORT!!! ***Remember this 15M PA is happening all inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone/ 4Hr Supply Zone which means SELLERS are developing the stronger hand and starting to enter the market!!! ***Also we have a iR/LQ Trendline on the 30m TF that I believe is going to be swept to the downside with heavy momentum by sellers and this is essentially the move I am looking to capitalize on... 2) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with. Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by TreyHighPwr
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil8.8.24 I spent my time on oil because it's a potential reversal area to start moving lower and if you had entered the market at the support area you would be more than 3000 ahead which is not a bad return in the few days that you would have been in the market. on the other hand it looks to me like there are no sellers in the market and I would be looking for sellers but the price action suggests that the market still has more upside to it and I wanted to talk about that because if the market really is trading well in the direction that you're Trading you want to be able to stay a little bit longer in the market even if it only gets you a point or or so because that makes a huge difference on your wrist reward numbers your overall return. unfortunately when you haven't really thought out the distinctions that can allow you to modify your decisions... it is very easy just to get out of a trade because you absolutely do not want to lose money because you have fear of losing money probably because most Traders lose more money than they make when they trade so they make a decision based on emotion and not so much the patterns and behavior of the market itself and this makes a very big difference in your profile as a Trader. I decided to talk about Al Brooks because I purchased the program of his some years ago on the advice of a friend... had a love hate relationship without Brooks....Mostly hate. I would say it took me probably 2 or 3 years to get through his package of short videos. I felt so annoyed with him at first it occurred to me that my response was so intense that I must be missing something and it's something was wrong with me. and honestly I think that course costs 4 or $500 which is nothing. to put it bluntly... my response to his program was so intensely negative I truly wondered if something was fundamentally wrong with my thinking since I hated what he was doing and I wasn't making money in the markets and that maybe there's something wrong with me. and I knew that Al Brooks had an incredible reputation and I had fear that if I threw out those videos that that might be my last chance of changing my ability at Reading the markets. I decided to give you a concept of what a spike is as Al Brooks might think of it even though this would not be the perfect example for him.... because the concept ended up being very important to my thinking even though I do almost everything else differently from Al Brooks who thinks it's fibonacci's are completely bogus and he likes to do bar counts and that's not at all how I think.... but he did provide value and he was part of the significant change in my thinking that it would take especially once I understood extensions and other things elsewhere.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
Have the Bulls Regained an Edge in Crude?Crude Oil (September) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.23, up 2.03 Price action in WTI Crude Oil Futures settled at the 75.12-75.27 resistance pocket, which now stands as our Pivot and point of balance. We may have seen a shift favoring the bulls in the near term as long as price action can build a floor at the 74.45-74.60 mark. However, if support is surrendered at 73.96, it will signal the early signs of failure. Key takeaways from yesterday’s EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report from Bloomberg: US crude inventories fell for the sixth consecutive week, reaching the lowest since February. The six straight weeks of decline is the longest streak since January 2022. The nationwide decline of 3.73 million barrels takes stocks to around 429 million. Crude inventories at Cushing rose to 30.429 million, a weekly gain of 579,000 that was the largest increase since May 31. Distillate inventories rose above the seasonal average of the past three years, while gasoline inventories rose even as imports fell along the East Coast. Jet fuel inventories recorded their largest draw in nearly four months at 1.1 million barrels, after soaring to a 14-year seasonal high over the last four weeks. Gasoline demand fell for a second straight week. On a four-week basis, gasoline demand ticked lower to 9.114 million barrels a day. Refinery utilization was at 90.5%, a slight improvement from last week. Still, utilization is at the lowest since the pandemic on a seasonal basis. One other nugget from imports data was that flows from Ecuador jumped to the highest this year, somewhat helping to make up Latin American imports after the drop from Mexico that Lucia noted. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 76.12-76.40***, 76.87**, 77.62*** Pivot: 75.12-75.27 Support: 74.45-74.60**, 73.96**, 73.46-73.56**, 72.74-72.94***, 72.23-72.42***, 70.703**, 70.00*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG from HTF Discounted Demand Levels?NYMEX:CL1! “The highest human act is to inspire.” - Nip Hussle Tha Great Top of the TOP Fam... As we get ready for the start of a new week and the beginning of a new month, Let's stay focused on our approach and refining our EDGE in the markets. Here in this video I have created a detailed narrative on Crude OIL for the HOUSE to go LONG this week... 1) Being that Sellers have pushed price into HTF Weekly Demand Zone, let's see if buyers can develop the stronger hand and we can get a LTF 15m CHoCh... *** If and when we can get a confirmed 15m CHoCh above price $75.05 Per Barrel. with candle closures above then I'll be compelled to enter the Market LONG from a LTF 15-5m Level of Demand and Target the HTF PIVOT ZONE above.... 2) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with. Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
Crude Oil Technical Analysis ( 6th AUG) Triangle pattern Current Outlook: Consolidation Crude oil is currently trading sideways around the 6221 support level. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: A sustained move above the 6245 level could signal a bullish trend, with initial resistance at 6300. Bearish Continuation: A breakdown below the 6210 support may lead to a retest of the 6135 level. Trader Action: Closely monitor price action for a clear breakout signal to determine the next potential move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by Shalvisharma5
1
Oil (CL) Should Continue Lower to Build an Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)). Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)) ended at 76.40 low. The market built an expanded flat correction as wave ((iv)) finishing at 78.60 high and turned lower again. CL broke below wave ((iii)) to end wave ((v)) of 1 at 74.59 low and also we ended wave 1 of (3). Up from wave 1, the market bounce in a zig zag correction ending wave 2 at 78.88 high and starting wave 3 of (3) to the downside. After 5 swings lower, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 71.67 low and currently we are calling 3 swings higher to end wave ((ii)) pullback before resuming lower. Therefore, we expect further downside to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 78.88 high stays intact, expect rallies to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
8.3.2024 Oil Weekend Pre Market AnalysisIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading. We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it.. Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
NYMEX:MCL1!
by MoneyDuck_Butch
Crude Steps and Forces- all rectangles are potential support/resistance with the last one blue being a probable exception - the 3 marked with dots levels can also become support/resistance, especially the first bottom blueish one, but they can also become like milestones levels or steps in the evolution of the price - the 2 green curves are also potential support/resistance acting as forces pushing the price up or down This snapshot considers the bullish scenario where the price remains above 66, with potential reversal patterns to occur near the red rectangle zone.
NYMEX:CL1!
by nen