Crude Oil LongTriangle pattern. When it breaks out of the triangle it will make a big move to which ever side it breaks. I am bullish on crude and my play is that it breaks upwards.
Disclaimer: I have long positions in crude.
4A1! trade ideas
CRUDEOIL - INTRADAY SETUP - AUG 2ndTechnical Analysis: Crude Oil (1-Hour Timeframe)
Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Trade Setup:
Entry: Below 6410
Target: 6360
Stop Loss: 6436
Rationale:
The price is currently below the crucial level of 6410. A break below this level suggests a potential bearish trend. The target of 6360 represents a potential downside move. However, if the price moves above 6436, it invalidates the bearish setup.
Risk Management:
The stop loss at 6436 is placed to limit potential losses if the market moves against the trade.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on the provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Thursday Climb Crude Oil As this week has been short term Bullish I am looking for continuation today.
At around NY open I would like to head down into the 1hr FVG and then show signs it wants to move higher towards the BSL that is marked
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 29-AUG 2: OIL INDICES GOLD SILVERThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast JuLY 22 - 26th
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US OIL
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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QM BreakoutQM is up big on the session, likely due to war news regarding Iran and Israel. This could lead to a sustained breakout, but it is stalling now at previous highs. I'll be watching things like this, silver, and other commodities if the war escalation continues.
CL1! - Contracting Volatility, on watch for break of structureVolatility is down, will look for major news events / break of structure to see if we replicate. Will look for a break above / below weekly level and play the opposite direction with tight stops. Ideally watch daily for failed follow through on
entry.
US Crude Oil Prices Hover at $82: Bearish Setup in Sight?US crude oil prices continue to fluctuate within a sideways trading range, currently hovering around the $82.00 mark. This consolidation phase has presented an intriguing supply area, suggesting a potential bearish movement in the near term.
In this context, it's essential to consider the positions of various market participants. Commercial traders, who often include producers and large institutions, are maintaining a bearish stance. This bearish sentiment from the commercial side contrasts with the behavior of retail traders, who are currently in buying mode. This divergence between commercial and retail positions can be a significant indicator of potential market direction.
Given the current market conditions, we are monitoring this supply area for a bearish setup. On a daily timeframe, the possible targets for this bearish movement are the next demand areas. These zones represent potential levels where buying interest might re-emerge, providing support to the prices.
While there isn't a strong seasonal trend supporting a bearish continuation, statistical analysis suggests that there could be a bearish impulse lasting until mid-August. This potential decline aligns with historical patterns, even though the current market lacks a definitive seasonal bias for a prolonged bearish trend.
The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions provides a nuanced view of market sentiment. Commercial traders' bearish outlook, combined with the retail traders' bullish stance, creates a dynamic environment that could lead to significant price movements. This scenario highlights the importance of closely monitoring market sentiment and positioning to identify potential trading opportunities.
In conclusion, US crude oil prices remain in a sideways range around $82.00, with an interesting supply area indicating a possible bearish movement. The contrasting positions of commercial and retail traders add complexity to the market outlook. Despite the absence of strong seasonal trends, statistical analysis suggests a potential bearish impulse until mid-August. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these factors when developing their trading strategies in the current market environment.
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Short WTI Possible level to go short off on WTI Crude oil. Price coming back up into a trendline, resistance level (previous swing low), and low volume cave with the 200 ema acting as resistance and confirming trend. Also have yesterdays volume profile closing as a b shape with POC at lows and lower than pervious day. OBV is creating bearish divergence within this zone on the 30 and 5 min.
Wait to see if we can get a good breakout through this CTL and support level with an increase in volume
ES Oil the last day of the month.... almost.... we have one more day but I'm not redoing the video.
I wanted to talk about the last high or low pattern that I learned years ago when it really resonated with me in a significant way to change my thinking. the es is set up to go possibly a lot lower. I was asked to look at the oil as a long trade and I think that it is a reasonable long trade but not an easy trade. patterns like this can create very nice reversals that go in your direction, but it's easy for trades like this to turn on you and stop you out of the market and that's what would concern me about this trade especially when I look at the larger time frame it compare easier trades for much larger profit this trade. you know where your stop should be on this Market and if you can take the stop this could be a nice trade.... as long as you know that if it turns against you where you have a small stop... it's no big deal he gets stopped out. because the market is at a support area when I can compare the chart to the left my bias is to look to be a buyer not a seller even if I think the market can easily trade lower.... plus I like the ABCD pattern down to the support. I would not scale into a long trade and add a long position if it trades lower with the thought that it can only have a very small move lower.in other words if it moves significantly lower get out of the trade, sit on your hands and give the market some time before you enter back in the market.
D cup formation in CRUDEOIL Potential Trade Setup:
Based on the information provided, the trader is anticipating a bearish outlook for Crude Oil on a 1-day timeframe.
The formation of a D cup pattern suggests a potential target of 6200-6100.
Zone Modification Before Trading SessionThis is a short 20 minute video on modifying the Oil chart for todays U.S. Market trading session.
Turbo Tuesdays ? Crude OilNice ranged day on Monday leading me to think today won't be as expansive.
Nether less I am looking for Bearish movement but I would like some sort of BSL to be taken meaning I am anticipating a retracement come NY open 0830est roughly.
15min FVG and the 2hr -OB are areas if price was to retrace to I would look for shorts.
Targets are bellow the weekly ssl and the eql's.
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Lower low again after market formed a perfect double top with Globex high, which was couple of ticks above Globex open. Market is going down but barely. Bears taking profits at new lows and wait for market to go higher again before they sell it. 1h 20ema is a roller coaster. Need to trade small, have wide stops and wait for decent pullbacks.
current market cycle: trending trading range or broad bear channel, whatever you prefer to call it
key levels: 74 - 78
bull case: Bulls buying new lows and making money. That’s about it. They are too weak to push to make new highs and bears will probably stop at bigger resistance which I think is below 74.
Invalid below 73.
bear case: Bears in control but they are taking profits at new lows and thats why the channel down is so broad and we have two sided trading. Play the bear channel until it’s clearly broken. Do not try to be a rocket scientist here and start with macro schmackro stuff about oil. It’s going down, look for shorts. Be Forest Gump and not Cathie Wood.
Invalid above 78.
short term: Bearish. Play the channel.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Still short since 82.69.
trade of the day: Selling the double top Globex and EU high at 77.6. Had to get short latest at bar 42 but better 41 since it was also a head & shoulders or the top of the trading range. More than enough reasons to sell.
next sell opportunityI consider this scenario and will look for confirmation at indicated levels to short
Crude Oil: Bottoming or Failed Rally Attempt?Crude Oil (September)
Last week’s close: Settled at 77.16, down 1.12 on Friday and 1.48 on the week
WTI Crude Oil futures opened higher Sunday night amid Middle East tensions. A deadly rock strike on Israel by Iran-backed Hezbollah has eroded the hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, a firm tape overnight has dissipated, and Crude Oil futures are testing into the gap open and major three-star support at 76.0r-76.40. This support level is one in which price action tested multiple times last week and a higher low today will help build out an inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 77.69-77.81**, 77.98-78.08**, 78.64-78.92***, 79.22**, 79.81***, 80.70***, 81.30***
Pivot: 77.25
Support: 76.04-76.40****, 75.71-75.87*, 75.08-75.32**, 74.55-74.91***
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Crude**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the zone between 73.50 and 72.42, coinciding with a key level at 72.69.
Monday Drab Crude Oil We opened with a large Gap to the upside...
So far we have not moved in any direction with any purpose.
To stay bearish running into NY the DAILY -OB should be respected if we retrace back to that level.
Closing the NWOG with a displacement candle would be advantageous for sell side to be taken and the two targets I have noted with the magnets.
Technical Analysis: Crude Oil || MCX
Trade Setup:
Short Position: Below 6450
Target: 6400
Stop Loss: 6490
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Remember: Technical analysis is just one tool in a trader's arsenal. It's essential to combine it with other factors and conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Only question right now is, is that minor bear trend line support at 78.6 holding or do we break below? Friday was a big bear bar closing on it’s low and we can expect follow through but we don’t know if we get a lower high first. Not more magic to it. Horrible place to initiate trades, you have to be patient and let the market show you where it wants to go.
comment: Bears answered my question on Monday and just broke below and closed below. Whatever macro dude’s who “know” Oil writing, this market wants to go down and it’s going down. Oil found an intermediate bottom exactly at the 50% pb that is on my chart for many months but it’s the same for Gold as we are in a tight bear channel down and as long as it holds, it’s bearish. 74 is the first target the bears will probably hit over the next 2 weeks.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 74-83
bull case: Bulls failed on Monday and buying new lows for scalps and they are also quick to exit those longs. Got nothing for them with the current structure. If they manage to break above 80 again, it’s likely that bears give up until we hit 81ish again but that’s a weak argument at best. Another possibility is that bulls will fight for 76, since it’s the middle of the range and where most volume was traded over the last months.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears have all the arguments on their side and the bear channel is the main pattern to be traded here. 74 is my target for the next 2 weeks. Any pullback from the bulls should stay below 79, which is also the daily 20ema. Above that price and bears have failed and might step aside until market reaches 80/81 again.
Invalidation is above 79.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral until clear break below 78 with follow through. Not interested in buying.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.64 and now we are at 77.16. Outlook was good since the low was 76.03 and that was a trade for 260 ticks.
short term: Bearish for 74. Any stop fro that would be 79.5
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Took most off from my shorts from 82.58, at 77.
chart update: Added bear channel and I see this down move as a two legged move inside the big trading range.
How to stay current with this strategy What's good everyone, This another video following up from my first video. I wanted to go over how to stay current with what the market is creating. Let me know if you have any question I will be glad to help .
My zone set ups and Entries I decided to post my first video Ever... on how I get my zones on the chart & how I get my entries. Ive been working hard the last 4 years on becoming a full time trader and feel good about this trading style. Ive gone through so many styles on how to trade. This has been amazing for me. I love scalping , in and out of the market, I've learned I don't need to make 100 ticks every day. If this works for you awesome. Again I'm no content creator so have no idea what I'm doing lol.
CRUDE OIL: 21 Jul, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation).
Forecast: Bearish
Where are we in Elliott wave analysis? The chart on the left shows that we are bearish with the 3rd wave (Labeled wave (iii)-orange). Basically it will continue to push down even lower.
(1D Chart) The broader context suggests that wave (ii)-orange seems to have ended at the high of 84.52, and wave (iii)-orange is now unfolding to push lower. It is important that the price consistently remains below the high of 84.52 to maintain this view.
(4H Chart): The short-term outlook shows that since the high of 84.52, wave iii-grey is unfolding and subdividing into wave ((3))-navy. The price could continue to push lower, approaching the lows at 77.58 or 72.48. The price must always remain below 83.10 to maintain this view.
US Oil: Market Structure Shift
🚀 **US Oil: Market Structure Shift & FVG Targeting Buy-Side Liquidity!** 🚀
US Oil has been making waves in the market! 🌊 After a significant move that took out the sell-side liquidity, we've witnessed a powerful market structure shift. This pivotal change has created an exciting fair value gap (FVG) 🎯, setting its sights on the buy-side liquidity.
This shift signals a potential bullish momentum 📈, providing traders with lucrative opportunities to capitalize on the market's upward trajectory. As the FVG narrows, the target on buy-side liquidity becomes clearer, making it a critical zone for traders to watch. 👀
Stay tuned and keep your eyes on US Oil as it continues to navigate through this dynamic market landscape! 🌟💹
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