#SPY How to trade this downtrend? Analysis of the market. Did we change our trend? How you should plan downtrends, change of trends and possible good low entrys on good names. Wealth creation trading... Insights of a technical trader
4A1! trade ideas
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 13th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. The February 24 pivot forecast reversed crude from the strong 69.80 support level. This level was broken and eroded during the week, as I predicted last time. Based on timing and the chart, there are signs of the second phase beginning. In this context, I closed my short position from February 3. The price movement from the February 3 extreme forecast on CL futures provided $2K per contract.
⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. The next extreme forecast is March 3. Another extreme forecast is on March 19, combined with retrograde Mercury on March 17.
CL1 WeeklyThesre is a Wolfe Wave and Price hugging that Extended 1-4 Line in future is Possible .
For price to pop above that Channel to 110.00 Area is also possible .
All my Price levels are based on Fib's .
So we could be locked in this Channel for a few Months
WTI crude oil shows the potential for a bounceThis is a bit of a scrappy chart, but I still see the potential for a cheeky bounce.
WTI crude oil is trying to snap a 4-week losing streak, by stalling around a 50% retracement level. Last week's candle was an inverted hammer, and the previous two weeks have both closed above the 50% level.
A bullish divergence formed on the daily RSI (2) ahead price action finding support at the 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA.
From here, the bias remains bullish while prices hold above last week's low. Bulls could seek dips towards the 200-day MAs, with a near-term upside target of $72. A break above which brings $74 into focus, near the monthly pivot point.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Is CL looking bearish? Short below LIS/Yearly Open?NYMEX:CL1!
Macro update:
Will we see another bullish leg like Jan 2025? Or does crude oil have room to move further lower and resume its downtrend after putting in the high of the year?
In our opinion, most headlines since the new US administration have already been priced in by market participants.
Crude oil fundamentals—encompassing supply, production, and demand outlook—are likely to influence prices more significantly than headline news. Our analysis indicates that the market has rebalanced, trading above the Composite Volume Point of Control (CVPOC) at $68.45 per barrel, as derived from our 2022 anchored Composite Volume profile. Furthermore, the 2025 Volume profile is exhibiting a “b”-shaped formation, signaling a move toward balance in its lower range.
From a market auction perspective, two key price ranges are established:
Q4 2024 Lower Distribution: Approximately $65–$70, indicating a balanced market.
Q1 2025 Value Area: Approximately $70–$75, also reflecting balance.
In our analysis, it’s essential to adopt a broader view by examining higher timeframe levels to stay aligned with these key market levels. While intraday or intrawork trends may display bearish or bullish momentum, the overall market auction framework suggests further consolidation within these ranges—unless new developments significantly alter the crude oil fundamentals or breaking headlines emerge that have yet to be priced in.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
Jan 2024 CVPOC and mCVPOC Q4 2024 confluence: 68.45 - 68.25
Key Bull Support/LIS: 69.90 - 70.50
Feb 2025 VAL: 70.80
2025 mCVPOC: 72.82
Feb 2025 VAH: 72.70
mCVAH/Jan 2025 mid: 74.96 - 74.80
Scenario 1:
Price gets above key support to further consolidate within Feb 2025 Value Area
Scenario 2:
Intraday bullish price action with higher lows that fails to gain momentum above the 2025 VPOC.
Scenario 3:
Price holds below Yearly Open and LIS key support. A bearish head and shoulders pattern develops to push prices lower to test CVPOC 2022.
Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
Crude OilCrude Oil - US OIL
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A " Corrective Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
Tariff Tantrums & Rising Inventories Weighing Down on Crude OilOne month into his presidency, Trump has injected fresh uncertainty into oil markets. His rapid-fire policies aimed at boosting production, imposing tariffs, and pushing for conflict resolutions in the Middle East and Russia—are reshaping the energy landscape. His unpredictable and bold approach to trade has left markets on edge.
Bearish sentiment is being fuelled by weak economic indicators, particularly from the U.S. and China. Trump’s policies have added uncertainty, driving price swings.
At the start of the month, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (10% on Canadian oil) and 10% on Chinese goods. However, he swiftly delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada but kept the tariffs on China intact.
In response, China imposed tariffs of 15% on U.S. coal & LNG and 10% on crude oil, autos, and farm equipment, fuelling fears of a broader trade war that could weaken global growth & energy demand.
Trump also tightened U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude exports and signalled stricter enforcement. While this could reduce supply, his trade policies threaten energy demand, keeping downward pressure on prices.
Further supply risks emerged as Europe ramped up efforts to weaken Russia by targeting its shadow fleet and energy exports.
Meanwhile, Trump’s push for peace in Ukraine and the Middle East has shown progress, lowering the geopolitical risk premium on crude.
However, fresh supply concerns arose after a drone attack on a pipeline belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia, a key export route for Kazakhstan’s crude, disrupted shipments by 30% to 40%.
Repairs are expected to take months, adding to supply fears. Ukraine also escalated drone strikes on Russian refineries, intensifying concerns over Russian crude flows already constrained by Western sanctions.
Trump’s actions have had mixed effects, supporting oil prices in some cases while pressuring them in others. Combined with an oversupplied market, this has kept the overall outlook bearish, though uncertainty and short-term volatility persist.
U.S. CRUDE INVENTORIES CLIMB; EIA PROJECTS LOWER WTI PRICES FOR 2025-2026
Another factor weighing on WTI prices is the steady rise in crude inventories, following seasonal trends. Stockpile rises have exceeded analyst forecasts for four consecutive weeks.
Source: EIA and Investing.com
U.S. energy firms have increased crude stockpiles for four consecutive weeks, the longest streak since April 2024.
The EIA’s latest Short–Term Energy Outlook report ( STEO report ) reinforced a bearish outlook for WTI prices. It kept its 2025 and 2026 forecasts unchanged, with a slight 1.8% upward revision for Q1 2025. This raised the full-year 2025 estimate by 0.4% to USD 70.62/b, while the 2026 projection remained steady at USD 62.46/b.
Source: EIA STEO
The agency attributes the Q1 2025 price uptick to OPEC+ production cuts, which are expected to reduce global oil inventories by 0.5 million bpd. However, it kept price forecasts steady for the rest of 2025 and 2026, anticipating a supply increase from April 2025.
The EIA projects global oil inventories to rise by 0.9 million bpd in H2 2025 and 1.0 million bpd in 2026, driven by higher output and sluggish demand growth.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS INDICATE PERSISTENT BEARISH TREND
WTI appeared set for its first weekly gain in five weeks for the week ending 21/Feb, but bearish U.S. economic data offset support from supply disruptions in Russia.
The MACD indicator signals a renewed bearish trend, showing momentum has turned downward again after briefly easing.
The RSI hovers near the midpoint at 41.79, below its moving average of 44.34, signalling a shift toward a renewed bearish trend.
Source: TradingView
Furthermore, TradingView’s technical analysis dashboard reinforces a strong bearish trend.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
For the week ending 11/Feb, managed money’s net long positions in WTI crude oil (futures & options) dropped 13% WoW, marking a third weekly decline. Short positions surged 33% to 76,375 lots, while long positions inched up 0.3% to 198,612 lots.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Short positions have increased week-on-week since 28/Jan, highlighting a growing bearish sentiment among managed money.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Trump’s energy, trade, and foreign policies have heightened uncertainty in oil markets, creating a push-pull effect on prices.
However, the persistent supply-demand imbalance remains. Push for higher U.S. oil output and efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict will add further pressure on WTI prices by erasing war-risk premium.
While short-term price spikes and volatility are more likely, they are unlikely to alter market dynamics without a significant recovery in global oil demand.
Portfolio managers and traders can express a bearish view on WTI prices through CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. These contracts provide the same crude oil exposure as standard WTI futures but at 1/10th the size, offering greater accessibility and more precise hedging options.
This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Apr 2025) expiring on 19/Mar (MCLJ2025) with the following trade setup:
• Entry: 71.50/barrel
• Target: 67.50/barrel
• Stop: 74/barrel
• P&L at Target (per lot): +400 ((71.50 – 67.50) x 100)
• P&L at Stop (per lot): -250 ((71.50 – 74.00) x 100)
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.6x
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Investors can learn more about how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
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MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 12th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle is not yet complete but is very mature. Crude is pressing against strong support at 69.80 on the April futures contract, which must either be broken or eroded. I believe the maturity of the 1st phase in this context is not coincidental.
⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
Levels to consider for Crude oil Futures CL1!On this video i discuss what I think is the next long/short to consider and illustrate how not to get caught up in the noise of low probability setups .
Currently we are trading inside of a range between the POC and the VAH .
I look back on previous highs in the chart and how we reacted at those levels and what I potentially see looking forward . My bias overall is expecting more downside but I dont marry that one bias and simply look at the PA from both sides with a focus on having a plan in the event of a move up or Down .
WTI - Bulls in action!Hi All! A day off is a good time for reflection.
Oil Price Outlook: Potential Fifth Wave Impulse Up
There is a high probability that oil prices, having broken through the upper boundary of the regression channel, may continue their upward movement with a target in the 81.20–84.00 range. This could be the fifth wave of an upward impulse.
Wave Structure Analysis:
✅ Wave 1 – Leading diagonal
✅ Wave 2 – Double zigzag
✅ Wave 3 – Strong upward movement
✅ Wave 4 – Deep correction as a single zigzag, reaching the maximum possible level of 71.50
‼️ Further decline invalidates this scenario.
Technical Confirmation:
🔹 Bullish divergence is clearly visible on both the H1 and H4 charts.
🔹 AO and RSI indicators are turning upwards while the price continued to decline, indicating a trend reversal.
🔹 The price has not fallen below 71.50, where bulls have established strong support.
Fundamental Catalyst:
📢 Recent news about tariff increases, including on goods from Canada (such as oil), could be a bullish driver for oil prices.
Key Targets:
✅ First target: 77.36
✅ Local high: 81.00
✅ Major resistance level: 84.00
#CrudeOil #WTI #Brent #Trading #ElliottWaves #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #PriceAction #MarketUpdate #OilPrices
Elliott Wave View Crude Oil (CL) 5 Swing Structure Favors HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View in Light Crude Oil (CL) suggests the metal ended cycle from 1.16.2025 high. Decline from 1.16.2025 high unfolded as a 5 waves with wave ((i)) ended at 77.87 and wave ((ii)) ended at 79.44. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 72.38 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 75.18. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 70.12 which completed wave A in higher degree.
Oil is now looking to correct cycle from 1.16.2025 high in wave B. Internal subdivision of wave B is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave A, wave i ended at 72.07 and pullback in wave ii ended at 70.89. Wave iii higher ended at 73.04 and pullback in wave iv ended at 71.85. Final leg wave v ended at 73.25 which completed wave (i). Due to the 5 swing rally from 2.17.2025, the structure suggests further upside is more likely. Pullback in wave (ii) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.17.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 70.11 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
[Positional] Crude Buy BetSL at day's low. High chance of triggering.
Note -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives
Crude Eyes Bullish Reversal - Descending Trendline🚨 Crude Oil (MCX) 4 HOUR Chart Analysis 🚨
🔹 Bullish Indicators Identified: Breakout from a descending trendline, signaling potential trend reversal.
Price reclaiming the 55 EMA (6211) as a key resistance level.
🔹 Expanding Demand Zone: The breakout structure suggests a shift in market sentiment, increasing the probability of bullish continuation.
🔹 Target Levels: Watching for price movement towards the 6310 zone (Bearish OB).
T1 - 6250
T2 - 6300
T3 - 6350
🔹 Breakout Confirmation: A strong move above 6180 - 6200 will validate the bullish breakout.
🔹 Risk Management: Ensure proper stop-loss placement to manage risk effectively.
📈 Stay alert for confirmation & volume surge! 🚀
🔹 Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on available data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk; past performance is not indicative of future results.
❤️ If this helps, please like the post!
MICRO CRUDE OIL - BULLISH OR BEARISH INCOMING ACTION?Crude Oil looking to breakout this week. Downside or upside? Let's hear your thoughts.
Does our LIS hold? Weekly CL Trade IdeaNYMEX:CL1!
Macro Update:
There are a lot of market moving events taking shape on the macro landscape.
Peace negotiations between warring countries, reciprocal trade tariffs, and a US-Iran nuclear deal.
We need not mention that any of these events may potentially turn market sentiment risk on or risk off. It all depends on how these all unfold.
On the economic front, we have rate decisions from various central banks. Most central banks reiterate cautious cuts and turn hawkish amidst concerns about the rising inflation outlook. Central banks are also pointing towards rising uncertainty on the outlook itself as we mentioned above. It all depends on how events unfold.
WTI Crude Oil Big Picture:
Viewing a weekly full session WTI crude oil chart, we can see 3 weeks of one time framing up on the weekly chart starting Dec 30th, 2024. We then saw a rejection of uptrend and prices reverting to 2024 Value area. We can see four bearish weekly candlesticks from the week starting Jan 20th, 2025. Last week, the price action on the weekly timeframe formed an inverted hammer showing bearish pressure increasing on WTI crude oil. Our key LIS and key bull support show the confluence of multiple market generated levels has held up for the past 3 weeks.
Traders take note that WTI crude oil futures contract has rolled over to April 2025 contract. Symbol: CLJ2025
In addition, DOE WTI inventory numbers will be released on Thursday 11am CT due to US President’s Day on Monday February 17th, 2025.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
2025 mcVPOC: 72.82
Feb 2025 mcVAH: 7 2.48
2025 mcVAL: 70.56
Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52
Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12
Scenario 1: Range bound week ahead
In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area.
Scenario 2: Risk-off sentiment shift prices below key LIS
In this scenario, we may see a breakdown of our key bull support and Line in Sand. Price moves and stays below yearly open price, providing a possible shift lower towards composite volume point of control (CVPOC).
Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
CL 15M Bearish ICT Unicorn Breaker to go shortCL retraced back to Daily FVG zone, swept previous daily high and reversed sharply leaving 15M breaker aligned with 15M FVGs. Setting limit order to go short at the breaker.
CL 15M Bearish ICT Unicorn breakerCL is in Daily downtrend. It retraced to Daily FVG, swepr previous day high and reversed sharply. 15M ICT Unicorn breaker has formed. Setting limit order to go short
USOIL Sell Setup🔻 USOIL Sell Setup
📉 MSS Confirmed → Liquidity Grab
🎯 Target: Equal Lows (Sell-Side Liquidity)
🔍 Entry: Retrace to FVG / OB in Premium
⏳ Confirm: Volume + Momentum
🔥 Let me know if you need a chart! 🚀
Crude Oil Bearish Setup Crude oil is showing signs of potential downside movement. After a recent rally, price is facing strong resistance near $71.60-$72.65, where sellers are stepping in.
🔻 Key Observations:
1️⃣ Price previously broke out of a descending channel but failed to gain strong bullish momentum.
2️⃣ A lower high is forming, indicating that buyers are losing control.
3️⃣ There’s a strong support zone around $70.14-$70.89, which could be the next target.
4️⃣ A potential short opportunity is forming, with an entry near the current price and a stop above resistance.
Take Profit 1 - 70.89
Take Profit 2 - 70.14
Stop Loss - 72.65
Possible riseOil is now in a correction phase after having been descending, as noted on the left side of the chart. The price may move between 73.72 and 70.12 and a break of either side may lead to bull run or a bearish continuation.
For the immediate bullish rise, if price continues to be above 70.12, and passes 71.6 simultaneously settling above, the commodity may try to touch 73.000 zone
My View : CLJ2025 - Crude Oil Futures (April 2025)Summary analysis :
Price Movement: The current price is at 71.43, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 (-0.02%) from the previous close. The price has been relatively stable within a narrow range, with the high at 71.46 and the low at 71.38.
Trend Indicator s: The Heikin Ashi candles suggest a potential consolidation phase, as there is no strong directional movement indicated by the candles. The Bollinger Bands (BB20) show the price is near the middle band (SMA close at 71.10), indicating a balanced market without significant volatility.
Support and Resistance : Key support levels are around 71.00 and 70.50, while resistance levels are near 72.50 and 73.00. The price is currently hovering near the lower end of the recent range.
Volume and Momentum : The volume data is not explicitly provided, but the lack of significant price movement suggests low momentum. The ARIMA forecast (BQECASTHL) indicates a potential for minor fluctuations without a clear trend.
Fractals and Signals : The presence of fractals suggests potential reversal points, but without a clear pattern, it’s challenging to predict a strong move. The SELL and BUY signals are not strongly pronounced, indicating a neutral market sentiment.
Time Frame : The analysis is based on a 1-hour chart, which is suitable for short-term trading. Traders should monitor for breakout signals above 71.46 or below 71.38 for potential short-term opportunities.
In summary, the Crude Oil Futures market for April 2025 is currently in a consolidation phase with limited volatility. Traders should watch for breakout signals and monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.
OilCrude Oil
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Change in Characteristics
Falling Wedge in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
CL: Squeeze: sell ideaOn CL as you can see on the graph we have a squeeze. This means that we would have a high probability of seeing the market go downward over a time unit of one (1) hour, especially when the vwap is broken forcefully by a large red candle.
