Crude on BuyCrude Oil now on bullish because of start the tomorrow meeting for China, India & Russia 1st Target : 5960
4A1! trade ideas
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Bulls nowhere to be found. We are near the minor bull trend line starting from the September low below 64 and it is more likely that this trend line holds and we do not go below the October low 65.74. Can you long this based on that assumption? I would not. Wait for bigger buying pressure and break of the bear trend line currently around 70.4. Can you sell this? On a pullback yes, but not below 70.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher.
comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68.
current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: No more bullish thoughts from me for now. Only an event can save the bulls. Monday they had another chance and they blew it on Tuesday. Now market has formed a big bear wedge but the hope that this will break to the upside is slim. Bull trend line at 68 has to hold or bulls will give up until 65.
Invalidation is below 68
bear case: Bears won last week big time. Now they want to run all the stops below 65 and retest 63.46. Problem with their case is the bull trend line and the bear wedge. We are trading at the lows and above the bull trend line, which is a bad spot for new shorts. Any short around the daily 20ema near 71 is probably a decent trade.
Invalidation is above 72.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think.
→ Last Sunday we traded 75.56 and now we are at 68.69. That outlook was garbage.
short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bullish pattern, added bear gap and bear wedge.
Bullish Crude Oil Trade IdeaCrude oil is set up for a bullish move, driven by supply-side constraints and stronger demand. Recent inventory reports have shown lower-than-expected stock levels, signaling tightening supplies. Additionally, OPEC's continued production cuts and geopolitical tensions are likely to support oil prices in the near term. I'm anticipating a rally toward key resistance levels as the market reacts to these fundamental drivers.
WTI song remains the same increased volatility still in rangeAlthough we have had a choppy ride in oil in the past month due to tensions in the Middle East, has anything changed?
no did this chart at the beginning of the year and the song remains the same trapped inside a range. The clearly defined range is $54/$89 so until we break out cant see the picture changing
Light Crude Oil Futures: Bulls vs. Bears – Big Moves ComingAlright, trading fam, let me set the scene. We’re sitting at $69.40 right now, and the market is coiling like a wave that’s either going to barrel or wipe out everyone trying to ride it. This is one of those setups that makes you lean in because, whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a ride. You ready?
Bearish Path – Things Could Get Real Slippery
If the price slips below $62.30, it could open up a steep drop to as low as $17.12. Yeah, that’s a long way down. It’s like paddling into the wrong break and realizing there’s no way out without eating sand. If the bears manage to break that key support, all bets are off. Think demand drops, rising inventories, or a stronger dollar that sends oil spiraling lower. Traders who’ve been short are already eyeing this level—if it breaks, they’ll be riding that wave all the way down.
Bullish Path – Eyes on the Double Top
But here’s the flip side: if the bulls show up and break through $89.10, we’re talking about a potential double top formation. And if that double top gives way? It’s all gas, no brakes, with $129.25 in sight. It’ll take some momentum to push through—maybe supply cuts or geopolitical tensions—but if the bulls catch that wave, it could be a smooth ride to higher levels.
What’s the Move?
Right now, it’s all about staying patient and reading the flow. If $62.30 holds, you know the bulls still have some fight in them. But if they lose that level, the bears are going to have a field day. On the other hand, if the bulls break through $89.10, it’s game on to higher highs. This is one of those trades where the chart is giving us clear levels, and now it’s just a matter of who takes the wheel.
If this breakdown gave you some clarity, follow, share, and pass it along to anyone else riding these markets. Let’s keep an eye on these levels and catch the right wave when it comes.
Mindbloome Trader
Possible sellOil may drop towards the immediate support structures if it fails to stabilise above the above resistance barriers.
Crude Oil Mastery: Fib Levels, Blocks, & Money Flow MagicMy trading strategy for crude oil is based on a combination of Fibonacci levels, order block support, and money flow profile analysis. By using these tools, I aim to identify key areas of market strength and weakness, allowing for high-probability trade entries. The Fibonacci levels help pinpoint potential retracement zones, while order blocks provide insight into significant support and resistance levels. The money flow profile gives a clear view of liquidity and market participation, allowing me to track where large capital is moving in the market.
Cude OilCrude oil is gaining momentum, with market fundamentals supporting a potential rise in prices. Ongoing supply constraints, alongside steady demand, provide a favorable backdrop for further gains. With crude oil finding support at key intraday levels, I'm looking for a move higher toward the next resistance zone. Entering long on pullbacks offers a good opportunity to capture the upside.
WTI crude hints at cheeky bounce to $72WTI has fallen over 11% in seven days, and the loss of momentum around $70 could appeal to bullish swing traders. We're not looking for anything heroic here given the mixed signals on futures positioning, but it might be able to deliver a cheeky bounce higher over the near term.
MS.
Oil SSLSell side liquidity will be taken on this monthly chart of OIL futures. It does not take a genius to work out that all these relatively equal lows will be taken and the unmitigated inefficieny of price will be filled. Now you know the direction for oil for the remaining 14 days on this month and possibly next month depending on what levels are hit and when....
CL1! Chart Idea - Swing Short SetupSwing Short Trade Setup - 8-10 Weeks
Entry: 82.00
TP1: 74.10
TP2: 66.86
SL: 84.84
RR: 5 to 1
OilI think there will be a significant drop in the price of oil because we are at the beginning of a seasonal bear trend and technically it indicates the same thing
What is happening to oil?This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
Bullish Crude: UPDATEDBack to square one on the crude oil position, currently sitting at breakeven with a combination of a 1% loss, 1.5% win, and a 0.50% loss.
Given that both the intraday crude charts and DXY are finding support at key levels, I see this as a prime opportunity to re-enter the market with a clearer view and a bit better RR. The market seems poised for a potential bounce, and I'm looking to get back into crude with a long position, aiming to capture the next leg up as bullish sentiment builds. Tight risk management will be key, with stops placed just below support.
Bullish CrudeCrude oil is gaining strength as global demand continues to rise, while supply constraints persist. Geopolitical tensions, OPEC production cuts, and a steady decline in inventories are all contributing to upward pressure on prices.
CRUDEOILCrudeoil is moving in a range bound condition. It is indecisive for moment and no directional move seen
This chart is only for educational purpose and do your own study before taking any trades
/CL 10.15.2024 London Session ShortUsing market structure and overall trend trading I was able to identify the lower high that was being formed on CL and entered off the 15M retest then placed profit targets on past DOLs/ Support ranges.
Entry: 70.97
Stop Loss: 71.39
Profit Target 1: 70.53
Profit Target 2: 70.13
Bullish Crude OilI’m expecting a bullish move in oil prices. This setup looks favorable for long positions, targeting the next resistance level as the market responds to improving fundamentals like reduced inventories and heightened geopolitical risks affecting supply.
Tracking Inflation with this Ratio - Crude Oil vs Gold RatioThe Fed is using this Crude Oil vs Gold ratio in tracking inflation.
The one in white is the inflation and the one in yellow is the Crude Oil vs Gold ratio.
We saw that when inflation peaked at 9% in June 2022, so did this ratio.
Although we recently saw a cut in interest rates, the yields are now moving higher, and gold has maintained its high point.
This makes us wonder: will inflation move toward the 2% target, or is it still at risk of rising further?
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Crude Oil (CL1!): Why We’re Still Expecting Lower LowsAt the end of last week, we fine-tuned our Crude Oil outlook, and we are still expecting lower lows to take out the sell-side liquidity below. Our limit order at $63.23 remains valid, even after last week’s pump, which was driven primarily by rising tensions and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Oil gained 13% over five sessions following Iran’s attack, as traders feared Israel’s response might target Iran’s oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country’s 1.7 million barrels per day of exports. There are also concerns that a broader war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However, the geopolitical risk premium may be fading due to Israel’s delayed response.
The geopolitical risk premium has an unclear and unpredictable expiration. When that moment comes and is not supported by real, fundamental factors—such as a substantial supply shortage due to the conflict—the upward movement in oil prices will not be sustainable. The longer this takes, the more the price increase will slow and potentially reverse, which is exactly what we are starting to see in the chart. While Crude Oil respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level almost perfectly, it found stronger resistance at the POC just above that level. Given the bearish RSI divergence, we continue to expect Oil to move lower, provided the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further.
Long - Oil FuturesOil has been trading in a down channel.
- It has bounced off lower bounds, making a higher high on 1HR
- Wait for price to consolidate and bounce off 0.5 Fib pull back for entry.
- 1st TP at 74.24, let the rest run.
- Down channel usually leads to an breakout to the upside.
