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WTI Crude Oil 6 Month Spread Synthetic

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4A1! trade ideas

#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls bought the daily 20ema and now we had gigantic up and gigantic down, means gigantic confusion. I favor another sideways to down movement for the second leg of the two-legged correction before bulls can try 77 or higher again. 75-76 is a bad spot to trade imo. Downside target is 74 or 73 and everything below would be bad for bulls. Quote from last week: comment: Wild, wild market currently. New low below 66.9, just to reverse for 13.95% or 925 ticks. You won’t see that move too often per year. So now what? Tough. Friday’s bar has a big tail above and we broke above the bear trend line, which could very well be a bull trap. A look at the monthly and weekly chart never hurts. They are both showing the same continuation pattern of a contracting market, since we did not break the lows below 63. Next bigger high which will most likely hold is the July one at 80.71. As of now bulls turned the market neutral again, where the middle of the potential range could be 72 if we use the July high and the September low. comment : Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels : 71 - 80 bull case: I continue to be bullish until bears can reject 77 or 78 again. Bulls now have formed a proper channel up and we are likely in W2 in a potential W5 series. Don’t trade based on that wave series because right now it’s a very rough guess. Invalidation is below 71.3. bear case: Bears had an amazing pullback last week and had to take profits on those 690 points. I don’t think we will see bigger bears coming around to fight for 75-76 they likely wait for 77/78 again. Otherwise I don’t have any arguments for the bears here. Invalidation is above 79. outlook last week: s hort term: Neutral. I would not short 74.38 right now but favoring the bears for a pullback but only on weakness. Will only turn more bullish above 76 or around 72/73 (if bulls buy it). Pullback could go as deep as 70. → Last Sunday we traded 74.38 and now we are at 75.56. Neutral was good. Big up, big down, big confusion. Likely to trade more in the middle of that range, which we are doing. short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added a potential 5-wave series.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-10-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oiltl;dr oil - 297 points given to you yesterday. Hope you made some. 76 could be resistance but I can see this printing 78 again tomorrow. Either way, bad place to buy right now. Need better pullback or a buy near the 1h 20ema or bull trend line. I got nothing for the bears here either. They made big bucks and did not fight this much. comment : Closed the given swing long for around 260. I hope you also made some. Bulls are in control again and I doubt bears want to fight this big time before 77 or higher. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 71 - 80 bull case: At 75.55 I don’t know how deep the pullback can get. Lowest should be around 74. There is a bull trend line and the 1h 20ema is around 75. Above targets are 77/78 and if bulls get wild again, we will print 80 soon. After such wild moves up and down, it’s more reasonable to not expect more extremes and maybe somewhat more contracting prices and sideways movement before the impulse. Invalidation is below 74. bear case: They gave up above 74.5 and their next target is to keep the market below 77 and turn more neutral again. I honestly don’t have decent arguments for the bears. They made big points on the pullback and now bulls try again. I would not look for shorts in this. Invalidation is above 76.5. short term: Bullish for 77 or higher. Neutral below 74. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Gave you the swing long yesterday at 73.28. That.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - 71.54 has a very good chance of being the low of this pullback. Confirmation is only above 74.7. Tough spot right now. I would not be surprised if Globex starts the pump early. Decent chance we see 76 tomorrow and 78 on Friday. Bears would surprise me below 71 and I do think we would see an even bigger flush below that price. comment : Yeah I know, oil again. Market is moving the most currently so embrace the volatility. I make it short today. 71.54 has a very good chance of being the low of this pullback. Market could retest 77, so 300+ ticks higher from here. If you would long this now, stop is either 69.8 or 71.5. Both are reasonable. Confirmation for the bulls is above 74.75. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 70 - 80 bull case: Bulls see the 3 legs down and a 200 tick buy from the lows. Next they want follow through to break above the bear channel and they know, bears will have their stops between 74.5 and 74.7. Above is no good resistance until 77 again. On the daily chart we can also see bulls bought the daily 20ema almost to the tick and the bull channel now looks proper. Enough reasons why a long now is a decent trade. Invalidation is below 71.5. bear case: Bears had a gigantic pullback and now 2 bigger tails below the daily bars. Are they gonna fight this or do they think they made almost 700 ticks from the highs and it’s probably reversing soon? If you look at the daily chart, you can not come to the conclusion that you want to short 73.35 right now. If we somehow manage to get below 71.5, the bulls case is probably dead but market would likely be more neutral than bearish. Invalidation is above 74.7. short term: Bullish with stop 71.5. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: Long 73.28, stop 70.5. Target 77 or higher. trade of the day: Shorts at 77 which was the big red line and August high. Market spiked and bulls who bought above 76.5 did not even had the chance to exit break even.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Crude oil saved by the 200-day MA (for now)A combination of factors saw crude oil snap its 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. China's equity markets plunged at double-digit levels when traders realised no new stimulus from China was to be unveiled after golden weak. US production forecasts were lowered by the EIA and concerns over the Middle East receded somewhat. An elongated bearish engulfing / outside day formed after its daily high met resistance at the September 2023 trendline. Yet the 200-day MA came to the rescue. For now at least. Given the 4-hour bullish hammer at the 200-day MA and weekly R1 pivot, alongside a heavily oversold RSI (2) on that timeframe, I suspect a cheeky bounce could be in order. Bulls could cautiously seek dips for a move to $75 or $76. Yet the magnitude of Tuesday's selloff suggests bears may be lurking at higher prices to re-enter upon any such bounce. Bears could wait to fade into such levels in anticipation of a return to the $70, near a high-volume node (HVN) and 61.8% Fibonacci level. MS
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
US WTI CRUDE OIL... Looking to BUY IT!US OIL Price has pulled back into the Weekly and Daily +FVG. There is a good chance 73-72.00 will hold support, sending prices higher. My eyes on the lookout for valid buy setups. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by RT_Money
2024-10-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Good pullback by the bears. Wait and see if bulls buy it and market found a bottom. Pullback could get some more but I doubt it will be much. 72-74 is neutral. Wait for strong momentum to the upside again. From yesterday: short term: max bullish but maybe one comment… No matter the reason for the short squeeze, it can turn down again violently and form a gigantic range. So imagine if we retest the breakout price of 72.36. How many traders would be trapped then? Don’t be early. comment : Low of the day was 72.71. Hope you listened. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 70 - 80 bull case: Bulls got a big pullback which will probably be a great buying opportunity for many who can hold through more pain and scale in lower. Was 72.71 the low for this pullback? Possible but market almost never prints one big surprise bar and then moves in the other direction. Need better confirmation and strong buying again. Targets above are obvious. As long as bulls stay above 71, I think they are good and we will retest 77 and maybe higher. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: I don’t think bears did much here. More likely bulls wanted to secure the windfall profits and reduce risk. Are bears shorting 73 now in hopes of an even bigger reversal down to 70? I highly doubt that. The breakout price was retested imo and we can move higher again. Best bears can get is more sideways movement around 73. Bears also had 2 decent legs down. A third one is possible but betting on it might not be that good of a strategy here. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Neutral around 73-74. Bullish above 75 and bearish below 70. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorts at 77 which was the big red line and August high. Market spiked and bulls who bought above 76.5 did not even had the chance to exit break even.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 16% in 5 days. Alrighty then. No matter your religious beliefs, you can not buy and pray for higher prices. Buying near the 1h 20ema was profitable since last Tuesday but the rally is so climactic that we will very likely see a bigger pullback soon that will be driven by traders taking profits and reducing their risk. Don’t be exit liquidity. Otherwise it’s obviously max bullishness and we can expect a test of 80 soon. Any decent pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t buy big bear bars and hope for the best. Wait until market turns up again. comment : Does not make sense to try to come up with a bull/bear case when the market is doing one of the nastiest short squeezes ever. It’s max bullish and your job now is to evaluate potential spots to get long. No matter how you put it, you can only long this on strong momentum or a decent pullback. The 1h 20ema was profitable for 4 trading days now, look for longs around that price. Can we go higher without a better pullback? Look at the rally 2023-06-28 to 2023-09-28. 3 months of a very strong bull rally and markets always have pullbacks. It could obviously still go higher before a pullback but I would not buy above 77 right now. Market has to form a better pattern for this to be sustainable. Right now it’s a short squeeze and we will soon see a bigger pullback because trader want to lock in profits in order to reduce their risk. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 70 - 80 bull case: Bulls are in control. Don’t look for shorts, can almost certainly only get burned. Potential targets for bulls to begin to take profits are above us. I got two bear trend lines around 77 - 79. I’d be surprised if we straight go for 80 without a better pullback. Any pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t long too early and get trapped in a deeper one you can not hold onto. Invalidation is below 73. bear case: Get outta here, no bear case. Invalidation is above 80. short term: max bullish but maybe one comment… No matter the reason for the short squeeze, it can turn down again violently and form a gigantic range. So imagine if we retest the breakout price of 72.36. How many traders would be trapped then? Don’t be early. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anywhere and have the balls to hold.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: US WTI CRUDE OILUS WTI Crude Oil expanded to the upside last week, with a convincing close. ON the Daily, a +FVG was formed. Things are in place for price to continue to move higher. My bias is bullish, and I am looking for buys. Consider the tension in the Mid East, pushing prices higher. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by RT_Money
1
CURDEOIL OCT 2024 KEY LEVEL FOR 07/10/2024//@description // All credit goes to Tony for the concept of this indicator. His Trading View link: www.tradingview.com // Note: The calculation method in this indicator differs from Tony's, but the concept is derived from his work. **Explanation:** This trading system helps you avoid blind trades by providing confirmation for better entries and exits. It considers volume, past prices, price range and indiavix. **Entry/Exit Points:** - **Entry/Exit Lines:** Use the BLACK line for long trades and the RED line for short trades, based on confirmation from your trading plan. - **Stop Loss:** For long trades, set the stop loss at the RED line below. For short trades, set it at the BLACK line above. - **Take Profit:** For long trades, target the next RED line above. For short trades, target the next BLACK line below. **Timeframe:** Use a 5 timeframe for trading. **Risk Disclaimer:** This setup is for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for your gains or losses. Check the chart for more details.
MCX:CRUDEOILV2024
by nandupk
OIL Buy SetupOIL Buy Time Frame: - Daily: (FVG Identification) - 4-hour: (FVG Identifiication) - 1-Hour: Waiting for Confirmation --- 1. Trend Confirmation: Identified a Change of Character (CoC) in OIL by the break of the previous high at 72.40, indicating a reversal in market sentiment and a new bullish trend. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): On the daily chart & H4, noted Fair Value Gap between 72.50-73.15. This gap is a potential reversal zone if the price rebounds. 3. Entry Signal Waiting for any reversal candle pattern on the 1-hour chart, if price touches the identified FVG zone. 4. Trade Execution Entry Price: Wait for confirmation SL: 72.10 (below H4 FVG) TP1: 77.50 (previous high) TP2: 79.00 (1.618 Fibonacci) Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:5 Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM 5. Outcome: Exit Price: Profit/Loss: pips ------------- Disclaimer The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
OIL Buy SetupTrade Setup OIL Buy Time Frame: - Daily: (FVG Identification) - 4-hour: (FVG Identifiication) -1-Hour: Waiting for Confirmation --- 1. Trend Confirmation: Identified a Change of Character (CoC) in OIL by the break of the previous high at 72.40, indicating a reversal in market sentiment and a new bullish trend. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): On the daily chart & H4, noted Fair Value Gap between 72.50-73.15. This gap is a potential reversal zone if the price rebounds. 3. Entry Signal Waiting for any reversal candle pattern on the 1-hour chart, if price touches the identified FVG zone. 4. Trade Execution Entry Price: Wait for confirmation SL: 72.20 (below H4 FVG) TP1: 77.50 (previous high) TP2: 79.00 (1.618 Fibonacci) Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:5.3 - 1:7.5 Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM 5. Outcome: Exit Price: Profit/Loss: pips ------------- Disclaimer The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think. comment : Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line. current market cycle : trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78. key levels : 66 - 74 bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises. Invalidation is below 70.4. bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls. Invalidation is above 74.2. short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude oil rejects key resistance despite elevated tensions Crude oil overnight shied away from our key resistance at $72.50 highlighted in this article here yesterday www.ig.com as the market pushed back expectations of an Israeli response to Iran's missile attack until the end of the Rosh Hashanah holiday tomorrow. While its possible, we think its unlikely that Israeli will launch an attack on Iranian oil fields as such a move would likely drive oil prices toward $80 - an outcome which would be frowned upon by Israel's allies, who are making strides against inflation. Instead, strategic Israeli strikes on critical weapons factories and military objectives are more probable, like the events in April. Furthermore, any potential loss of Iranian supply will likely be offset by the return of Libyan oil and increased Saudi production, as voluntary supply cuts expire on December 1st.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IG_com