Is crude oil about to crap the bed? 80.32 coming soon? Had a decent chance for a long setup, but this move today is pushing the limits on bullish structure. Now there is a clear setup for lower if this level breaks. LOB
5A1! trade ideas
Learning to survive in the bouncer. The oil moves in an established area, if it touches 84 it will go up and if it touches 87 it will go down, until it is encouraged to establish new records, the key is to catch the same step as the oil to dance together.
Crude Oil Consolidating Within UptrendCrude oil stabilized this week around $84 per barrel on the May 2024 contract, from which we are seeing some nice rebounds after recent events between Iran and Israel. There is a risk that this escalation will not be over anytime soon, so energy prices may remain in an uptrend, possibly heading for a higher fifth wave back above last week's highs. If the market suddenly breaks below $84, there could still be support around $83.50, justifying a more complex pullback for wave four, but still indicative of a correction.
The Crude Oil SetupCrude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 85.41, down 0.25
Crude Oil futures have traded in a quiet range, going back through last week, outside of an early Friday morning geopolitical spike. A slate of economic data from China last night printed better Q1 GDP results at 5.3% versus 4.8%, but Industrial Production and Retail Sales whiffed. However, U.S. Retail Sales yesterday came in much stronger than expected, leading to a revision higher in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.8%. It is important to note that Crude Oil has reacted favorably to surprisingly resilient and strong U.S. economic data, especially that which highlights the consumer.
Waves of weakness over the last week have helped define a floor at $84 and just above, while the gap settlement from April 1st sits just below at 83.71. This establishes a line in the sand in which the bulls can become more comfortable leaning against. However, a break below could quickly open the floodgates.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.72-85.86**, 86.09-86.29**, 86.81**, 87.34-87.67***, 88.37-88.64***
Pivot: 85.32-85.35
Support: 84.69***, 84.04-84.33***, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Oil bouncing in it's safe area Looks like oil found its secure area for now, just bouncing between 84.01 and 87.60. Giving us short longs and small shorts hourly.
Crude Oil WTI ~ If $85 holds, then this count projects higher Standard ratio between Elliott Waves 1 through 3 versus wave 5 is 618/886 zone, which is shown in an aqua box. Call the target the $92 region for wave 5 of some degree.
Crude Oil MondayAs in previous post on Sunday -
So we have dipped our toes into the weekly fvg
May leave a low in place here to raid it again later, want to see weekley CE respected.. as its London and Monday this could be the judas swing... wait for more info and cme or 830 open.
Any Longs from me will need market to show displacement on 15min or 1hr tf... no rush
New supercycle soonI think that now there is wave 2 of the big 3rd wave of the supercycle. So in a few years oil will break its highs.
next possible HH or turnas its in uptrend, so its possible price can reach next HH after HL, lets see how these marked zone play in coming time
Oil prices fall after Iran attack -Oil prices fell during trade on Monday, as market participants dialled back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.
-Brent futures for June delivery fell 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $90.25 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 33 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.33 a barrel by 0225 GMT.
-The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.
-But the attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.
-An attack was largely priced in the days leading up to it. Also the limited damage and the fact that there was no loss of life means that maybe Israel's response will be more measured.
-As Iran currently produces over 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil as the fourth-largest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), supply risk includes more strictly enforced oil sanctions and that Israel's response could include targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, ING said in a client note on Monday.
Crude Oil Forecast1- A dip into weekly fvg would be ideal before a meaningful push up towards the daily eqh's
2- I don't see why they would raid them so soon so that where my intra day bearish stance is.
3-Overall Im Bullish
4- Staying above Monthly open and the FVG next to it is key to remaining bullish, yes we can wick into these areas but most importantly is the body of the candle doesn't close within.
Crude oil -Long a few micro contracts from Friday afternoon 4/12If the buyers are panicking, we will see a sizable gap up and continuation. Possible target to be seen this week: $91 to $92.65. Not advice, just some parameters.
Forecasting Next Week's Futures MarketsIn this video, I will delve into what to expect in the futures market for the upcoming week. I'll be covering the E-mini S&P, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Gold, and Crude Oil. Here, you'll get an understanding of the market environment, key levels to watch, and essential indicators to help make informed trading decisions. The indicators used include Bollinger Bands (20,3), the 5-day SMA, the Year to Date AVWAP, and my Beacon Indicator.
long crude oil after sell side raid-My previous idea failed although im still looking to take a long targetting that buyside liquidity.
- i want to see sellside purged and then a MSS on a 5min or sub and taget buyside
Crude Oil Technical AnalysisCL1! (Crude Oil) is forming a large head and shoulders pattern on 1hour chart. It is current retesting a previous support and holding at a demand area. A clean break below demand, below 84.85 would signal a price continuation down. For now, Jeanius is giving two buy signals which could be the beginning of another deep retracement upward. If we could get a strong bullish candle close above the current resistance, I would drop to a lower timeframe to confirm structural change to the upside to target the 1hour fair value gap and daily levels. Lets wait and see.
Crude Oil Swing IdeaCrude oil looks good for swing trade on Weekly timeframe. Wait for confirmation on daily candle. Chart is self explanatory.
Target and SL as per ur risk management.
This is not an investment tip, Just for educational purposes, Kindly do ur own analysis and trade accordingly.
Where Does Crude Invite Buyers?Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98
Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent.
Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.29**, 86.58-86.71**, 86.91-87.10***, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64***
Pivot: 86.02
Support: 84.90-85.10***, 84.55-84.69***, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
long on crude oil-break of structure
-1hr fvg into buyside
-wait for a 1min or 5 min displacement i the 1hr fvg
Wti 90 Strike is On Sale!There is something insightable happening with WTI oil.
90 strike and trade volume are attracting attention.
Check out Monday's trading data below. But to properly interpret it, we need to look at the data in the context of how the price of the asset has moved.
Comparing when the highest option trading activity was at the 90 strike and how the asset moved, the question becomes why the 90 option strike is being handoffed as prices move higher.
It's critical to note that open interest at the 90 strike did not increase, but the option flow from previous owners to new owners did (the amount of open interest did not increase, it actually decreased slightly).
Someone started buying at the 90 strike about 3 weeks ago and is now taking profits by selling their portfolio into the market, taking advantage of the rising price of call options. Our statistics show that such a scenario indicates a strong resistance level around the 90 strike and a likely bounce.
Let's ride this bullflag up ✨✨🙏🙏🙏Flag starting to form up
Can ride baby up to 90+
Me personally love trading 2x gush
Double the profits
👏👏🛢️🛢️📈📈📈
WTI remains on the 'buy the dip' statusMarket positioning data from the COT report shows that asset managers and large speculators are piling into longs, yet shorts remain subdued. The price on the 4-hour chart also shows an established uptrend within a bullish channel.
Prices have not yet completed a 3-wave retracement against the trend, hence the bias for a slightly deeper pullback before its trend resume. Also note that RSI (14) has not yet dipped into the oversold zone (which is now 40 given the strong uptrend).
Any pullbacks towards the internal trendline or $84 will pique our bullish interest for new longs, in anticipation of its next leg higher on route towards $90.
