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Premium Unleaded Gasoline 10 ppm Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) FuturesPP

Premium Unleaded Gasoline 10 ppm Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures

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A7L1! trade ideas

Not everybody is betting on cheap gasolineCowen on Crude: "We forecast a 1.8MM bbl crude build, in-line with API and seasonal historical levels. Imports could increase 0.4MM bpd w/w while exports fall 0.4MM bpd. We estimate that refinery throughput will increase 0.1MM bpd w/w. The production adjustment could fall 0.1MM bpd w/w." On Gasoline: "We forecast a 3.9MM bbl gasoline draw compared to API's 0.5MM bbl build and seasonal historical 2.6MM bbl draw. We estimate last week's demand was in-line with reported levels; our 4 week average demand is 2% below 2019 levels, compared to DOE's reading of flat. We estimate 2% lower demand from 2019 levels for this week, or a 0.5MM bpd decline w/w. We have refinery output flat w/w from our estimated level last week. Imports may also be flat w/w while exports could increase 0.2MM bpd."
NYMEX:RB1!
by GammaLab
Big things move slowly. How long Gasoline momentum can keep up?The gasoline market is huge and primarily depends on the Oil market which is even larger. When a big market shows a very high momentum most likely it is driven by speculations instead of real demand/supply based on usage (when things are normal). We can see a sharp price increase from March 2020. The price has faced only one major correction, and the rate looks too high to keep up. The gasoline market is ready for a big correction. The more it stays without a correction, the sharper the drop will be. It has rejected once from the horizontal resistance level however briefly recovered. For the past few weeks, the price has been increasing slowly. In the short to medium term, gasoline will be a bearish market. This is just an idea, not financial advice.
NShort
by titusj
RB Gasoline FuturesGasoline futures at resistance. We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
NShort
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
5
Documenting Your Trades (For Fun and Profit)How do you document your trades? In a spreadsheet? In a trading journal? Directly on the chart? How much is too much? How little is not enough? I say you need to document enough to tell the story properly. Every trade tells a story. As with all good stories you have a protagonist and an antagonist. Good guys and bad guys. The hero and the villain. And then, there's the journey. In the markets you are the hero and the market is the villain. One way I make trading "fun" and what helps me "tell the story of the trade" is to "Trade Like a Pirate" and use the vocabulary of Jack Sparrow. I have already written on this topic when it comes to analyzing profit targets (seizing treasure and plunder) but let's look at how we learn what we did on a trade by trade basis. When you do an after-the-trade analysis (what I call a postmortem) you should be able to see what you did right, what you could have done better, but most importantly, what you may have done wrong; not to beat yourself up, but to make sure that you *never* make that mistake or repeat that behavior again. (Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me!) For instance, I once lost three trades in a row and asked "How the heck did that happen?" and later when I looked at the actual trade screenshots I realized that both my trading timeframe and trend timeframe was the same! Somehow instead of having my charts on the 60-15 minute charts they were *both* 15 and I realized if I had my chart timeframes right I would have never entered those particular trades, saving me from experiencing those losing positions. Thanks to those trades, though, and thanks to my post-mortem analysis, the first item on my "pre-flight checklist" is now "Verify Trade Timeframes." Thanks to journaling and the postmortem process I'm *never* going to make *that* mistake again. But what about the *psychology* of the trade? *Why* did you enter it, *what* were you thinking once you were in it, *why* did you adjust your stop, *why* did you choose your target, *what* might you have done out of fear that got you out of the trade early or prevented you from realizing as much profit as you could have? Journaling your trade, or documenting the trade *properly* will help you with that. In the example above you can see a recent trade that presented itself to me and my pirate "Crew" in the Gasoline Futures market. I talk about the "weather conditions" before getting into the trade (the wind and the tide), other environmental factors like the "shark feeding frenzy area" helping me decide where I will target my profit (there be treasure *here*), what was going on when the trade actually entered, and finally, managing the trade to my target. In addition, during the postmortem I found an opportunity where if I had used a trailing stop, I could have gotten an additional 42% profit, or 'treasure'. As I mentioned in my Backtesting series, one of the reasons you backtest is that through repetition, you can often find patterns in your system that will prompt you to tweak it to either *improve* results or *eliminate* inefficiencies. In this same manner, through repetition in documenting your trades you may very well find a pattern of behavior that is holding you back from your full potential. For example, In the trade above, after securing 3R, (the minimum I am willing to take in a trade), if I followed price using my trailing stop strategy instead of a target, I found that I could have made an additional 2-3R profit. What if after documenting 20, 30, 40+ trades I find a similar pattern, that I am often "leaving money on the table"? I can then test several exit strategies to see which ones would give me the biggest bang for my buck and increase my R per trade. The other big benefit of having your trade journal "tell a story" rather than "state facts" is you begin to *personify* the market and see it as someone who exhibits certain behavior patterns, and that is what the markets present to us every day: PATTERNS. And if you can determine someone's patterns, you can predict their behavior. If I know that whenever my wife is browsing through a jewelry catalog and consistently goes "ooh" or "aah" over earrings with blue stones in them, I can guess with a high degree of accuracy that if I buy her a set of sapphire earrings she (and consequently*I*) will be a happy person. Likewise, if I can predict with a high degree what "Mister Market" is going to do based on certain patterns, I can keep setting sail, with confidence, day after day and see gains in my trading account (which makes me, my crew, and most importantly the missus, HAPPY! (Because when momma's happy, everybody's happy!). Trade well! (And Journal Well!) PS: Let me know how your journaling journey goes in the comments! I'd love to know how it "upped your trading game!" You can only improve what you analyze! -Anthony
NEducation
by ocaptain
8