BF1! trade ideas
BR (Brent Oil)Possible breakout 66.5 for short selling to 63.
Buy Limit at 61.5-60
Don't take aggressive long positions!
Brent Long (BR) Medium Term AnalisysShort opportunity below 66.3.
Buy Limit 61.5, Sell Stop (SL) 59.8, Sell Lmt (TP) 66
#brent Short 67$ stop loss 68.30 take profit 60
and so the first stage for growth is care for $ 60 and then look for an opportunity in the area to enter oil prices in the medium term.
Brent Crude Oil Futures monthly demand, buy BrentBrent Crude Oil Futures has a monthly demand level located around $5038 that gained control a couple of months ago. The fact that we have had that monthly imbalance in control allowed us to make too decisions. 1) No shorts would are allowed trading against a big timeframe demand imbalance that has gained control. 2) Only longs would be allowed.
Brent Crude Oil has been rallying for a few weeks now creating a new weekly demand level around $53.91 and potentially creating a new one slightly higher around $62.00 a barrel. There is a clear long bias providing buy opportunities on Brent Crude Oil Futures, a lot margin for profit on the way up to monthly supply zone around $77.00 a barrel
We do not take into consideration any fundamental analysis to trade futures, no earnings announcements or volume, we do not need any of that to make a trading decision based on supply and demand imbalances. We just need to know where those imbalances are located and what is the bigger picture trend on the stock.
Still if you pay attention to news, in the beginning of February Oil prices have fallen after disappointing US factory data sparked fresh concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. Brent crude futures dropped 0.2% to $62.6 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.4% to $54.48 a barrel. Oil prices had been buoyed by a new round of supply cuts from Opec and its allies.
Can we really make sense out of this Brent Crude Oil news? Maybe you can, but do we really need it? No we don't. Price reached a very strong monthly demand level, we are allowed to buy Brent Crude Oil but we are not allowed to sell it.
You can also use various options strategies to take longs at demand imbalances, long calls, spreads or any other strategy that you might have on your trading plan.
no major movement ahead for oil at least in first half of 2019I think the supply side for oil will be abundant, considering the fact the tepid world economy will not consume as much oil as the last decade.
growth prospects of major economies looks dim except the US. Many institutes has trimmed down GDP growth rates in the last two month, citing significant headwinds for the world, like debt, trade disputes, geopolitical uncertainties and so forth.OPEC has every intention to reach a production cut deal for its members. Yet it can't control the behavior of non member states, especially the United States, which is the biggest producer in oil and gas and has become a net exporter. By cutting production, OPEC members probably will lose market share to other big players in export market.
Oil dead cat bounce continues but will be short lived.Oil is in a bear market and will eventually go back down to $28 a barrel. What we see now is a dead cat bounce that has done better than expected. However, I think it's coming to an end sooner or later. I will first start by identifying key levels. I identified four horizontal lines that solidified through the last decade. These are the $80, $70, $63, and $45 levels. Then we have our Consensio moving averages (15-day, 50-day, and 200-day). I tried fitting a Fibonacci retracement but my attempts failed.
So now we see a small rally that impressively crossed the 50-day MA after staying below it for 3 months. Both the daily and the weekly closed above it. So how long do we expect to stay above it?
Well the smaller the area we get squeezed in, the quicker we will fall back below it. The first hurdle to pass is the $63 resistance below which we are currently sitting. TD sequential tells us on daily and weekly timescales that we have momentum to cross above it since we see a green 2 trading above a green 1 and a green 3 above a green 2. Also last week's candle gave us a bullish pin bar. So we have two cases:
Case 1: If we do NOT close above $63 on the weekly, then we will quickly be squeezed between it and the quickly-closing-in 50-day MA. Once we're squeezed, we expect a break to the downside but we need to re-evaluate the probabilities then.
Case 2: If we close above $63 on the weekly then the next resistance is the $70 level and the 200-day MA. These two combined are formidable resistance and I give less than 20% chance that price will break through them in this bear market before establishing a bottom. Now if we trade between $63 and $70, then we will be squeezed between the 50-day and 200-day MAs, and we are more confident that the squeeze will lead to a breakdown that takes us down to $45.
We favor case 2 because it gives a clearer sign and stronger momentum for bearish action. It's also favorable if you want to trade this as a swing.
We will continue watching TD sequential count on the daily and the moving averages.
BRENT CRUDE OIL LAST DAY FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, NYMEXTrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 62.47
Stop Loss (SL) : 62.99
Take Profit (TP) : 61.43
Description
J26H2019 formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (62.47) and place stop after 0.618 level (62.99). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (61.43)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
$0.01 = +-$10/std-contract
Commission fee = -$2.44/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.52 = -$520
Contract size to open = 5 standard contracts
EP to TP = $1.04 = +$1,040
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$12.2
Loss = -$2,600
Gain = +$5,200
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.99
Brent oli 60 min chart. Time for a rally?It's oversold in daily chart and forming a rangebound in 60min chart. It's edge for a rally in the 60min chart.
Where Will Energy Bottom? Brent OilTaking another stab here at picking a bottom in oil. Midpoints are difficult to decipher in such drastic sell-offs but if you catch the bottom we'll be well rewarded with an inevitable massive short squeeze. Regardless, this is def a high-risk trade. The relentless sell-off seems to be heavily algo-driven and major energy funds liquidating (according to rumors) so if another major energy fund goes tits-up it could crash the price right through my buy zone.
A considerable dip below the 59.47 target shown here is likely so my stops wont be hit until below 55.50. VERY wide stops. Downsize positions and manage risk accordingly. Entries for me are 58.84 and down. No urgency to get entries filled today with the shortened US. Thanksgiving session.
Zoom this in on a daily timeframe and you'll note decent respect of all fib levels, suggesting this could be a valid setup.
Brent : A Top ?US has allowed some countries to import Crude Oil from Iran -- not completely stopped. So a reversal in sight . Could this be the Start of Wave 5 ?? But as Equities market have started to fall, there could be a fall coming in Crude Oil as well !!
Sell up PRZ - T/PHi guys
1-simple look
2- Price - Pattern - Time - Momentum
3-Technical
Have a great day everyone!
Oil Sell-off Almost CompleteStalking a very nice setup here on UK Oil...
Starting with the first fib anchor point at the swing high of 86.69, the yellow circle highlights a distinct candle pattern that qualifies as a midpoint (place 50% fib here). Target zone for considering the sell-off complete and consider getting long is 69.20 and slightly below.
As secondary confirmation that this fib setup has legitimacy, look how well price respected the other fib levels (which just land where they may when placing the 50% fib through the midpoint first and foremost)
Similar setup in WTI as expected
