we are in sellers zone - short very volatile asset. i'm making small short contract from level 2430. i didn't analyse supply / demand, just TA.
CJ1! trade ideas
Weekly cocoa market 11/16/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA
Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed higher at $2,388 a ton.
Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling markets, Moderna announced very encouraging results on Monday. The pandemic is not weakening, we have just surpassed 54 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.320 million deaths. Faced with the second wave, Europe has been confined. The United States is the most affected country with more than 246,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases, and is also taking restrictive measures such as in New Jersey and Michigan.
The 2020/21 season is off to a strong start with arrivals in Ivorian ports of 485K tons as of November 8, against 362K tons at the same period the previous season. The dry period in West Africa begins in mid-November and producers are confident. Moisture in the soils should allow for an abundant harvest until the end of January-February. Crushing reports for the third quarter were down 4.7% in Europe, down 4.02% in the USA, and down 10.1% in Asia. Reconfinement and the closure of bars and restaurants in Europe will undoubtedly weigh on the fourth quarter.
Tensions in Ivory Coast following the presidential election have resulted in 85 deaths and 500 injured since August. President Ouattara was re-elected with more than 94% of the votes. The opposition does not recognize this election, deeming a third term unconstitutional, and to call for a transitional government. The government sent police units to surround the homes of opposition leaders, including that of Henri Konan Bédié, the former president. Guillaume Soro, in exile in France, called for an army uprising. Opposition spokesman Affi N'Guessan was arrested and investigated for "conspiracy against the authority of the state" and "acts of terrorism". The Constitutional Council officially validated the election. President Ouattara and Henri Bédié, former president and opposition leader, met for an exchange of about 40 minutes, both wanting to work for peace. Ouattara noted the handing over of a passport to Laurent Gbagbo, a further step toward reconciliation.
WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA
Ivory Coast and Ghana experienced above normal rainfall in October with an average of more than 150mm. Last week's rains were also above the five-year average in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-producing regions, with about 25-50 mm of rainfall. Forecasts in Ivory Coast and Ghana are now normal for next week, with rainfall probabilities of 25 to 50 mm. It should also be noted that the dry season usually starts in mid-November, early December.
ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS
Cocoa stocks are down to 3254 against 3361 thousand 60 kg bags the previous week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks rose above last season's stocks at the same time.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 92.755, after a sharp decline in early November. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be held on January 5 in Georgia. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. The Fed has announced that it will increase its "firepower" if necessary. Forex traders therefore anticipate an increase in the money supply.
The pandemic is not weakening, Europe has reconfirmed itself in the face of the second wave, the United States is also taking new measures of restrictions in certain states. The hope of a vaccine, with the announcement of Pfizer, calms the markets and prevents for the moment the dollar from playing its role as a safe haven. Caution is still called for, however, as many questions about vaccines remain unanswered. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated raw materials market.
Weekly cocoa market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
ANALYSE TECHNIQUE DU CACAO
Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed higher at $2,3333 per ton.
The pandemic continues unabated, we've just surpassed 50 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants.
After a very good 2019/20 harvest, the 2020/21 season is off to a strong start with arrivals in Ivorian ports of 406K tons on November 1st, compared to 287K tons at the same period the previous season. Crushing reports for the third quarter were down 4.7% in Europe, down 4.02% in the USA, and down 10.1% in Asia. Reconfinement and the closure of bars and restaurants in Europe will undoubtedly weigh on the 4th quarter.
Tensions in The Ivory Coast following the presidential election have resulted in about forty deaths since August. The opposition does not recognize this election and has announced the creation of a transitional government. In response, the government sent police units to surround the houses of opposition leaders, including that of Henri Konan Bédié, the former president. Guillaume Soro, in exile in France, called on the army to rise up. Opposition spokesman Affi N'Guessan was arrested and investigated for "conspiracy against the authority of the state" and "acts of terrorism".
According to Reuters, bean arrivals at Ivorian ports fell last week due to the risk of violence. Producers are afraid to return to the farms, and prefer to stay at home.
In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the moment, but there will be a second round in Georgia on January 5. If the Democrats win both seats, it would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. Therefore, uncertainties remain as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities.
WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA
Ivory Coast and Ghana experienced above normal rainfall in October with an average of more than 150mm. Last week's rains were also above the five-year average in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-producing regions, with about 50 mm of rainfall. Forecasts in Ivory Coast and Ghana are now above normal for next week, with high probability of rainfall above 50 mm. With the unrest related to the Ivorian election, some producers have been reluctant to visit farms. A prolonged absence with heavy rains could impact the quality of the beans. It should also be noted that the dry season usually begins in mid-November, early December.
ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS
Cocoa stocks are down to 3361 against 3456 thousand 60 kg bags last week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks are above last season's stocks at the same period.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy.
Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply.
On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the cocoa futures markets is down sharply this week to 6.908 K instead of 20.449 K.
Head & Shoulders for Cocoa ---Rare!Pretty rare to see this on the daily. Enjoy this nice pic. Also...even better, there's a pullback right now! What are you waiting for? Get in!
Disclaimer: Im not a financial advisor.
Weekly cocoa market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA
Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed sharply lower at $2,294 per ton, losing more than $200 in one week. First, the worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe had a strong impact on markets last week. In front of the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, this is the case of Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries like Spain or Italy and others are taking more and more drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings.
Then, after a very good harvest 2019/20, the season 2020/21, starts very strong with arrivals in Ivorian ports which are 317K tons as of October 25, against 208K tons at the same period the previous season. Grinding reports for the third quarter were down 4.7% in Europe, down 4.02% in the USA, and down 10.1% in Asia.
And finally, last week the Coffee and Cocoa Council learned that Ivory Coast was having difficulty selling the remaining 500K tonnes of its 2020/21 intermediate crop. Indeed, to guarantee a fixed price to producers, the harvest is mainly sold in advance.
The Ivorian presidential election held Saturday, October 31, had raised cocoa prices from 2330 to just over 2500 dollars per ton. Investors fearing violence. The toll is heavy with about thirty dead and a hundred injured since President Ouattara announced his candidacy for a third term. The election was held and Alassane Ouattara should be re-elected with an overwhelming majority. 23% of the polling stations could not open because of degradation or blockades, under the slogan of civil disobedience of the opposition. But the investors have decided, the situation is not serious enough to disrupt the supply of cocoa for the moment. The official results will be announced normally before Tuesday, and the reaction of the opposition and future events will be monitored.
In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and market tensions are not excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump will be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the U.S. economy.
WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA
Ivory Coast experienced above normal rainfall in September and October. Last week's rains were above the five-year average in most cocoa-producing areas of Ivory Coast, with 25-50 mm of rainfall, with very heavy rains in the south and southwest of the country. The Agboville region, for example, received up to 150mm of rainfall. The forecasts in Ivory Coast and Ghana are now in line with normal for the next 2 weeks.
ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS
Cocoa stocks are down sharply to 3456 against 3500 thousand 60 kg bags last week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks have risen above last season's stocks at the same time.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term.
On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and they assure that the key rates will remain permanently low.
A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the cocoa futures markets is up this week to 20.449 K instead of 13.928 K.
Head and Shoulders in CocoaNoticed since the big 2018 Rally that Cocoa has been trading more Technical then Fundamental, long term Cocoa traders have also mentioned that Algos have been very involved in Soft's last couples year.
Fundamentals look Bearish (Covid, La Niña considered favorable to Cocoa yields)
Only Bullish input is money is flowing back into Commodities so I wouldn't expect huge price downside.
Cocoa is off to the races, LONG to ~3000. BUYLast week confirms a major Buy, up ~400 more points from here, before it becomes a major sell.
cocoa gives us a 99.99% chance of being right if we buy it nowhello investors, the one who does not like and does not share the idea of its author, this is a way of telling him not to post any more ideas. the cocoa that had broken its uptrend is bullish again when it broke the $ 2590, so cocoa's next goal is to reach the value of $ 2936 which represents the maximum value reached by cocoa from May 15, 2018 to today 'hui hui, so if cocoa breaks this value with force, its second target will be $ 3347. Thank you and don't forget to add I LIKE
