Playing COCOA /CJ to the long side for the next couple of monthsCocoa is building a base since March of this year. Eventually it looks like it wants to get it on and move to higher levels.
The price projection symmetry on the monthly provided good enough support and we see signs that this base is finally over and the next leg higher has already started.
Based solely on technicals , COCOA has a minimum 100-200 upside from here which these levels would be 2250-2350 .
That would be close to a 0.382 retracement from a weekly perspective .
I am long at 2136 as of today .
CJ1! trade ideas
Long above $2100This has broken from the very protracted downtrend and bottoming over the last 12 months. You can now see two horizontal lines of resistance - one of which the price is currently sat at - we also have a parallel channel on the RSI which I think needs to break.
To my eye we need to see to move above $2100 and we should be in for a long hold and run.
Cocoa Long Long TermCocoa has hit levels which has previously proven to be support levels in 2011/12 and again in 2013. I believe that this may be the turning point for the cocoa price, after a rough 2016 with a 32% decline. If the support level is broken, though, it's probably wiser to open a short position.
What's interesting is that the short interest in cocoa is very high, and many traders and institutions hold a short position in cocoa, which could open up for a so called "short squeeze".
The short interest is something I would monitor carefully, because if we see a decline in short positions, this could indicate that more people believe in a rise in cocoa prices, and have either just covered their short, or switched sides of the trade.