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Crude Oil Futures (Jun 2023)

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CLM2023 trade ideas

CL Futures Outlook May 27, 2025 Compression Near Structure ZonesToday, CL is trading just above a key mid-structure zone, continuing its sideways movement between defined supply and demand levels. 🔹 Current Technical Picture: Price remains inside a compression range Resistance at the top red zone where price was rejected yesterday Mid green zone acting as current structure support Lower green zone marked by last week's strong buyer reaction Volume profile is neutral, showing no aggressive buyer or seller dominance at the moment. A failed breakout attempt above the descending channel in the previous session keeps this structure coiled and reactive. 🔍 My Outlook: If price retests the middle zone with strong volume + bullish reaction, it could offer a continuation toward resistance. If price climbs into the red zone and rejects with weakness, there’s potential for a move back toward the middle zone. A sharp drop into the lower green zone with strong buyer confirmation would create a high-reward reversal opportunity. No trades are taken blindly. I only act when price shows clear intent at key levels. Today is a reactive environment — not one for forced setups. 📉 Analysis based on volume structure, order flow, and key S/R zones. ⚠️ This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves risk.
NYMEX:CL1!
by prolivetrader
2
Crude oil-----60.00-61.00 near more, target 62.00-64.00Crude oil market analysis: Today's crude oil is also expected to fluctuate. There is no obvious direction in the short-term. The general trend is still bullish. Continue to buy when it falls back. If it rebounds first, we will consider the opportunity to buy first. The daily moving average of crude oil has begun to hover. It needs a big fundamental to implicate it in a direction. In addition, the recent crude oil inventory data does not support crude oil buying. We need to consider whether it will continue the previous sharp drop. Consider buying around 60.00-61.00 today. Operational suggestions: Crude oil-----60.00-61.00 near more, target 62.00-64.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrazyInvestorTom
1
OPEC Countdown: Inverted H&S Signals Potential Oil Price Rise🧭 Market Context – OPEC in Focus As Crude Oil Futures (CL) grind in tight consolidation, the calendar reminds traders that the next OPEC meeting takes place on May 28, 2025. This is no ordinary headline event — OPEC decisions directly influence global oil supply. From quota adjustments to production cuts, their moves can rapidly shift price dynamics across energy markets. Every tick in crude oil reflects not just current flows but also positioning ahead of such announcements. OPEC — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries — coordinates oil policy among major producers. Its impact reverberates through futures markets like CL and MCL (Micro Crude), where both institutional and retail traders align positions weeks in advance. This time, technicals are speaking loud and clear. A compelling bottoming structure is taking shape. The Daily timeframe reveals an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern coinciding with a bullish flag, compressing into a potential breakout zone. If momentum confirms, CL could burst into a trend move — just as OPEC makes its call. 📊 Technical Focus – Inverted H&S + Flag Pattern Price action on the CL daily chart outlines a classic Inverted Head and Shoulders — a reversal structure that traders often monitor for high-conviction setups. The neckline sits at 64.19, and price is currently coiled just below it, forming a bullish flag that overlaps with the pattern’s right shoulder. What makes this setup powerful is its precision. Not only does the flag compress volatility, but the symmetry of the shoulders, the clean neckline, and the breakout potential align with high-quality chart pattern criteria. The confirmation of the breakout typically requires trading activity above 64.19, which would trigger the measured move projection. That target? Around 70.59, which is near a relevant UFO-based resistance level — a region where sellers historically stepped in with force (UnFilled Orders to Sell). Importantly, this bullish thesis will fail if price drops below 60.02, the base of the flag. That invalidation would potentially flip sentiment and set up a bearish scenario with a target near the next UFO support at 53.58. To properly visualize the dual scenario forming in Crude Oil, a multi-timeframe approach is often very useful as each timeframe adds clarity to structure, breakout logic, and entry/exit positioning: Weekly Chart: Reveals two consecutive indecision candles, reflecting hesitation as the market awaits the OPEC outcome.   Daily chart: Presents a MACD bullish divergence, potentially adding strength to the reversal case. Zoomed-in 4H chart: Further clarifies the boundaries of the bullish flag. 🎯 Trade Plan – CL and MCL Long/Short Scenarios ⏫ Bullish Trade Plan: o Product: CL or MCL o Entry: Break above 64.19 o Target: 70.59 (UFO resistance) o Stop Options: Option A: 60.02 (tight, under flag) Option B: ATR-based trailing stop o Ideal for momentum traders taking advantage of chart pattern combined with fundamental data coming out of an OPEC meeting ⏬ Bearish Trade Plan: o Trigger: Break below 60.02 o Target: 53.58 (UFO support) o Stop Options: Option A: 64.19 (tight, above flag) Option B: ATR-based trailing stop o Ideal for momentum traders fading pattern failures ⚙️ Contract Specs – CL vs MCL Crude Oil can be traded through two futures contracts on CME Group: the standard CL (WTI Crude Oil Futures) and the smaller-sized MCL (Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures). Both offer identical tick structures, making MCL a powerful instrument for traders needing more flexibility in position sizing. CL represents 1,000 barrels of crude per contract. Each tick (0.01 move) is worth $10, and one full point of movement equals $1,000. The current estimated initial margin required to trade one CL contract is approximately $6,000 per contract, although this may vary based on market volatility and brokerage terms. MCL, the micro version, represents 100 barrels per contract — exactly 1/10th the size of CL. Each 0.01 tick move is worth $1, with one point equaling $100. The estimated initial margin for MCL is around $600, offering traders access to the same technical setups at significantly reduced capital exposure. These two contracts mirror each other tick-for-tick. MCL is ideal for: Testing breakout trades with lower risk Scaling in/out around events like OPEC Implementing precise risk management strategies Meanwhile, CL provides larger exposure and higher dollar returns but requires tighter control of risk and account drawdowns. Traders can choose either—or both—based on their strategy and account size. 🛡️ Risk Management – The Foundation of Survival Technical setups don’t make traders profitable — risk management does. Before the OPEC meeting, traders must be aware that volatility can spike, spreads may widen, and whipsaws can invalidate even the cleanest chart pattern. That’s why stop losses aren’t optional — they’re mandatory. Whether you choose a near level, a deeper stop below the head, or an ATR-based trailing method, the key is clear: define risk before entry. MCL helps mitigate capital exposure for those testing breakout confirmation. CL demands higher margin and greater drawdown flexibility — but offers bigger tick rewards. Precision also applies to exits. Targets must be defined before entry to maintain reward-to-risk discipline. Avoid adding to losers or chasing breakouts post-event. And most importantly — never hold a losing position into an event like OPEC, hoping for recovery. Risk is not a gamble. It’s a calculated variable. Treat it with respect. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
#202521 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: The past week we saw 3 tries by the bulls to push above 63 and they found no acceptance. I got trapped once because the spike looked so strong but it got zero follow-through. Markets will only try one direction so many times before they try the other one. current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range key levels: 55 - 63 bull case: Bulls need to stay above 60 or risk that the market tries back down to 56 or lower. If they can go sideways inside the given range, the better and if we hit 63 enough, it will break. Problem for them is, they tried couple of times now and the odds that 60 breaks are bigger than the breakout above 63. Friday was strong enough to expect not a big bear day on Monday but I am not eager to buy this. Invalidation is below 59.8. bear case: Bears need a stronger break below 59.8 for more downside and they need to make a lower high below 62. That’s the whole story. They are slightly favored since we are at the top of the current range that has been going on for almost 2 months now. They have defended the bear gap up to 64.5 more than 5 times. Invalidation is above 64.4 short term: Neutral. Shorts closer to 63 are good or on a clear break below 59.8. No interest in buying up here unless bulls do something big above 64.4 and break the bear trend line. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-25: Need a clear break of the trading range 54 - 64 before we can come up with new targets. Bear trend is valid until the trend line breaks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
CL1 Breakout & Pullback Above Resistance – Strong Buy Signal ?The price has broken above the $61.75 resistance and successfully pulled back to retest it as support, confirming a strong buy opportunity. Key Confirmations: Breakout above resistance: Signals bullish strength. Pullback retest: Former resistance now acting as support. Volume surge: High buying interest reinforces the move. VWAP positioning: Trading well above VWAP ($61.36), favoring bulls. Profit Zone: Green-marked target area for potential upside. Stop-Loss Consideration: Manage risk with a stop in the red-marked zone. Trade Idea: If momentum holds, this setup could lead to a continued uptrend. Watch price action near support to confirm further movement. Follow @GoldenZoneFX for more content and valuable insights! What do you think? Let’s discuss this setup!
NYMEX:CL1!
by GoldenZoneFX
CRUDE OIL consolidation point before further downward momentum.Chart Title & Instrument Instrument: Light Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX: CL1!) Timeframe: 5-minute Price Action: Current price at approx. $61.19 --- Technical Analysis Breakdown 1. Resistance Zones There are three key resistance zones marked in orange horizontal blocks: The upper resistance around $61.20 is marked “VERY RISKY”, signaling an area with high selling pressure. Two additional resistance zones are annotated with arrows, reinforcing this price ceiling. 2. Price Rejection After testing the resistance zone at $61.20, the price is projected to decline, reflecting a bearish reversal scenario. 3. Support/Target Zones First target: $60.85, marked just below an intermediate support. Second target: $60.40, a stronger area of interest (marked "TARGET"). Final support zone: Around $60.00, expected as a potential bearish exhaustion point or reversal level. --- Projected Price Movement The drawn path suggests: Price may retest resistance, then break down through intermediate supports, sequentially hitting all the way to $60.00. Each level acts as a possible bounce or consolidation point before further downward momentum. --- Conclusion This is a well-structured intraday bearish setup using price action analysis. It incorporates resistance rejection, target projection, and psychological round numbers like $60.00. Traders might consider short setups near resistance with tight stop-losses and progressive profit-taking at each support level.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Johnson67
Crude oil------Buy around 60.00-61.00, target 61.90-62.90Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been hesitant recently, and it is not sure whether it will fall or not. In the short term, we still see fluctuations. In terms of operation, it is still repeated range interception. If it falls first, consider buying. The support is still around 60.00, and the suppression position is still around 65-64.00. Before it runs out, we will consider range interception. In addition, pay attention to the impact of subsequent data on crude oil. Operational suggestions Crude oil------Buy around 60.00-61.00, target 61.90-62.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrazyInvestorTom
Light Crude Oil Daily Double Bottom Bullish Reversal Trade Plan Price has formed a clear Double Bottom pattern with a neckline as current Temporary Resistance. • ✅ Entry is triggered only after a confirmation candle breaks above the neckline. • Buy Stop is placed below the neckline to catch the momentum move. • Stop Loss is at the recent lower Low (safe and logical placement). • 🎯 Take Profit levels are based on measured move projections. Trade Plan: • Entry: 64.20 • Stop Loss: 55.12 • Take Profit 1: 73.28 • Take Profit 2: 82.36 • Volume: 0.21 X 2 “Waiting for neckline to break with Bulliwh confirmation candle” – this ensures you enter only on strong momentum. Light Crude Oil future is forming a classic Bullish Reversal pattern with clear structure. A break of the neckline confirms the setup Key Highlights: • ✅ Pattern: Double Bottom • ⚠️ Confirmation: Break + Bullish candle • 🔄 Risk Management: Tight SL, 2 TP levels • 🧩 Confluence: Trendline break + structure shift + RSI Divergence
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by sarfz.ahmd
Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil still did not rise. After the daily line was adjusted, the buying and selling game became more obvious. Today, it rebounded and continued to sell. Syria's thawing restrictions have helped to support the continuation of crude oil selling. In addition, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also suppressed crude oil. In the long run, crude oil is unlikely to rise again. Today, pay attention to the short position opportunity of 62.70. Fundamental analysis: Recently, there are many fundamentals, but relatively few data, which has a great impact on the market. The Sino-US trade negotiations, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, and the India-Pakistan ceasefire have all affected the market. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Eyes Key Resistance: Will Prices Push Higher? Targets: - T1 = $63.85 - T2 = $65.25 Stop Levels: - S1 = $61.25 - S2 = $59.90 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Crude Oil. **Key Insights:** Crude Oil is trading near critical resistance levels that may signal a bullish breakout. Historical data suggests that oil has a tendency to rebound sharply during periods of geopolitical tension and seasonal demand increases. The $64–$65 range remains pivotal, as overcoming this resistance could attract institutional momentum buying. Supply constraints, coupled with signals of recovering global demand, are lending support to the bullish outlook in the short term. However, traders remain cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties. Oil prices are particularly sensitive to policy shifts in OPEC+ production and expectations around inflation in the global economy. Additionally, the potential renewal of Iranian sanctions could create volatility, impacting short-term price trends. **Recent Performance:** Crude Oil has shown range-bound behavior between $60 and $65 over the past few weeks. Short-term pullbacks have frequently tested the $60.78 support level but failed to breach it. Attempted rallies toward $65 have met strong resistance, indicating that any established move above this level may trigger further upside. Price action reflects increased buying interest near the current levels, but confirmation of a breakout is pending. **Expert Analysis:** Numerous analysts highlight the significance of approaching seasonal trends, within which oil demand typically sees a boost. Technical analysis confirms that moving averages are recovering, and oil remains above key channels that signal a bullish continuation. Moreover, volume analysis indicates increasing activity among institutional buyers as prices hover above $62.00. While geopolitics remain a double-edged sword, OPEC+ production cuts alongside demand visibility for 2023 are suggesting a window for bullish movement. Near-term consolidations may offer strategic long opportunities with proper risk management. **News Impact:** Recent headlines on Middle Eastern production agreements and U.S. inventory data are driving sentiment. Decreasing stockpile levels have alleviated some of the oversupply concerns. Meanwhile, global policymaking on energy transition continues to play a role in longer-term price sustainability. Traders are keenly watching any updates on Iranian nuclear deal talks as a major disruptor. **Trading Recommendation:** Given current price movement and favorable seasonal trends, a LONG position on Crude Oil is recommended. The ability of prices to stay above $62.00 offers a window for upside opportunities toward $65 and beyond. Short-term targets are set at $63.85 and $65.25, while stop levels should be carefully placed at $61.25 and $59.90 to protect against further dips. Recent consolidations and institutional buying signal a promising rally, but traders should remain vigilant about macroeconomic news as a potential risk factor.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
#202520 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: I think buying that weekly time frame double bottom below 55 makes sense. Bulls are trying to print 64+ again and hit the weekly 20ema around 64.5ish. I favor the bulls to get to the upper bear wedge trend line a bit higher around 66ish and there market will decide if we continue further in it. The structure has a lot more room, so I don’t think bulls can get much more than that. We are in a bear wedge inside a broad bear channel. Making money as a bear is just easier, that is why I don’t expect too much from the bulls. current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range key levels: 59 - 65 bull case: Bulls trying to make last week’s low a credible higher low and test up to the bear wedge trend line around 64.5 - 65. If we stay above 59.5ish, I favor the bulls. Below that price it get’s neutral again and I would see the odds of 55 the same as for 65. Invalidation is below 59. bear case: Bulls are trying to keep the market above the daily 20ema and form a two-legged pullback at the moving average, which is a buy signal if they get a good signal bar the next 1-3 days. Bears can invalidate it, if they break below 59 and get follow-through below it. It is technically slightly more likely that we continue sideways inside the given range, like we did the past 5 weeks. Structure is neutral, so if bears want to reverse from above 60, they need to print a decent sell signal on Monday/Tuesday. Invalidation is above 64.4 short term: Neutral and will lean towards the side that can print the next decent bull/bear day. Bulls can go up to 65 and bears could trade back down to 55 if we go below 59 again. Only a big bull surprise could get us above the closest next bear trend line and prices above 66. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: 3 legs down on the weekly chart and market has printed a credible bottom around 55. I think we can test back to 65 over the next weeks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil Price Rally StallsThe recent rally in the price of oil seems to be stalling as it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week. In turn, crude may give back the advance from the weekly low ($61.02), with a break/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone bringing the monthly low ($55.30) on the radar. Next area of interest comes in around the April low ($54.46), but a move above $64.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil towards the April high ($71.62). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom