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Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2015)Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2015)Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2015)

Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2015)

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CLZ2015 trade ideas

Crude oil------sell near 68.80, target 66.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Recent crude oil is actually very easy to operate. Sell when it rebounds to a high position. Don't worry about the position. In addition, the daily K-line has also begun to decline, and it is difficult to form a large rebound. The new daily moving average begins to sort. If there is no fundamental support in the future, crude oil has a lot of room to fall, and it will fall below 58 in the future. Sell it when it rebounds to around 68.80 today. Fundamental analysis: Today is a holiday in Tokyo, Japan. In addition, there is no major data this week. We focus on the fundamentals. Trump's tariffs are still a focus. Operational suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 68.80, target 66.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
1
Crude oil---sell near 67.50, target 65.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has also started to fluctuate recently. Pay attention to the impact of contract delivery on the trend of crude oil. The daily line of crude oil does not show the strength of its rebound. In terms of operation, it is still a rebound sell. Crude oil continues to be bearish. The situation in the Middle East has not made any major moves temporarily, and the support for crude oil is limited. Pay attention to the selling opportunities near 67.30 today. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 67.50, target 65.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
1
Crude Oil Rebound Incoming? Key Demand Zone 📈 1. Technical Analysis – Daily Chart (CL1!) The price has returned to a demand zone between 64.60 and 65.30, an area that previously triggered strong bullish reactions. The July 22nd candle shows a clear lower wick, indicating potential buyer absorption and a possible short-term reversal. The next key resistance lies between 67.80 and 68.80, which aligns with a well-defined supply zone. Daily RSI remains weak but shows signs of bullish divergence, suggesting potential accumulation. Bias: bullish from current levels, targeting 67.50 – 68.00. Invalidation on a daily close below 64.40. 2. Institutional Sentiment – COT Report (CFTC, July 15, 2025) Non-Commercials (Speculators) Long: 308,915 (↓ -24,223) Short: 146,488 (↑ +22,724) Net Position: sharply declining → bearish divergence in speculative sentiment Commercials (Hedgers) Long: 857,803 (↑ +66,342) Short: 1,046,199 (↑ +18,118) Net Position: still negative, but improving → reduced hedging = less downside pressure 📉 Interpretation: Funds are closing longs and adding shorts, showing bearish positioning. However, commercials are slowly reducing their hedging exposure, which could indicate short-term stabilization if the technical support holds. 3. Seasonality Periods analyzed: 20, 15, 10, 5, and 2 years July historically shows negative average returns: -0.71% (20Y) -1.26% (15Y) -1.37% (10Y) The seasonal pattern indicates continued cyclical weakness into August. 📌 Interpretation: The summer period typically brings seasonal bearish pressure, which aligns with current 2025 performance. 🌐 4. Macro & Fundamentals EIA inventory builds for 3 consecutive weeks → demand weakness in the U.S. No additional OPEC+ cuts announced → supply remains ample Stable inflation data in the U.S. and China → no uptick in energy demand Overall macro data is neutral with a slightly bearish short-term bias
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
4-Tap Rejection. Compression. Breakdown Incoming?This is a mechanical short setup mapped out ahead of the Sunday futures open. It’s based on clean structure, distribution signals, and a confirmed internal shift in trend via iBOS but it’s not a blind breakdown short. The setup respects demand proximity, prior lows, and the risk of early-week traps. Read on. Structure Breakdown Over the last two weeks, price has rejected four times from a defined supply zone ($67.50–$68.50). On the 4th tap, we saw a classic stop hunt price wicked just above previous highs, then failed to hold. That failure led to an internal break of structure (iBOS), as price dropped through a prior key low and is now compressing just above a rising daily trend line. This forms the classic "liquidity grab → structure shift → compression" model and we’re now watching for the final leg lower. Short Setup Summary Entry Zone - 66.00–65.90 (on break & retest) Stop Loss (Kill Switch) - 67.50 above structural trap high TP1 63.80 - front-run of demand TP2 61.40 - full extension to macro demand This is a structure-first play no indicators, no guesswork. Only confirmed breaks, trap recognition, and clean execution. Demand + PDL Conflict It’s important to note, the short trigger area (around 66.00) sits very close to both a demand zone and the Previous Day’s Low (PDL). This makes it a high-probability bounce zone if price stalls. It also means the first move might be a fake out before the real leg begins. That’s why the short is only valid if we get a clean break, retest, and failure, not just a trend line touch or spike. Kill Switch Logic The stop is placed at 67.50, just above the stop hunt wick.. If price breaks above this, the setup is off plain and simple. The market would be shifting toward re-accumulation, and we won’t fight that. Sunday Futures Open Considerations This plan is published before the Sunday 6PM open. Crude is notorious for weekend-induced volatility. Thin order books and macro news = unreliable early moves. Three Potential Scenarios: 1. Spike into Kill Switch 2. Watch for a fast trap above $67.00 3. If price rejects back under $66.80, it becomes a higher-quality short Wait for confirmation no entry on open. Gap Down / Immediate Breakdown. If price breaks through $65.90 fast, wait for the pullback into structure on Monday to short safely. Push and Hold Above 67.50 Setup invalidated - Structure rotates bullish, we stand aside - Stay mechanical. Let the market confirm bias before executing. Staakd Model Checklist 1. Quad Rejection in Supply 2. Stop Hunt Confirmed (Tap #4) 3. iBOS (Internal Break of Support) 4. Daily Trend line Compression 5. Clean Risk Control via Kill Switch 6. Demand and PDL Caution Integrated This is how we structure high-conviction trades no emotion, no indicators, just mechanics.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by stakkd
Micro WTI Swing Breakout Setup – Robbing Liquidity the Smart Way🛢️ "Crude Ops: The WTI Energy Vault Breakout Plan" 🛢️ (A Thief Trader Swing Setup | MA Breakout Trap Heist 💰💥) 🌍 Hola! Bonjour! Marhaba! Hallo! Hello Robbers & Market Movers! 🌟 Welcome to another high-voltage heist mission straight from the Thief Trading Den. This ain’t just a chart—this is an Energy Market Extraction Plan based on real smart money footprints 🔎. 🔥 Master Robbery Setup: MICRO WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES 🎯 We got a bullish breakout alert from the shadows! This is not a drill. 💣 ENTRY STRATEGY 💼 "The Heist Begins Above 68.50" Watch the Moving Average (MA) zone closely—this is where weak hands get trapped and we slide in with stealth limit or breakout orders: 🛠️ Plan of Entry: Buy Stop Order: Just above 68.500 (after confirmation of breakout ✅). Buy Limit Layering (DCA): On pullbacks around 15m/30m swing lows for precision entries. 🧠 Pro Tip: Use alerts to catch the exact entry ignition spark—don't chase, trap with patience like a true thief. 🛑 STOP LOSS (SL) ⚠️ "No SL? That’s a rookie mistake." SL should only be placed post-breakout using the 8H wick-based swing low (around 66.50). 💡 SL is your personal vault door—set it according to: Lot size Risk appetite Layered entry strategy 📌 Reminder: No SL or order placement before breakout. Let the market show its hand first. 🎯 TARGET ZONE (Take Profit) Primary Target: 76.00 🏁 But hey... the smartest robbers escape before alarms ring — so trail that stop, secure your profits, and vanish like smoke 🥷. 💥 FUNDAMENTAL & SENTIMENT CATALYSTS 🔥 Current bullish energy comes from: 📉 USD weakness 🏭 Crude inventory drawdowns ⚖️ Geopolitical supply shocks 🐂 Hedge funds scaling long per latest COT data 📊 Intermarket cues from risk-on assets 🧠 Do your diligence: Go check fundamentals, COTs, and macro narratives before entering. Info = Edge. 📢 RISK MANAGEMENT NOTE 🚨 Don't go wild. Market is volatile, especially around: News drops 📉 Fed or OPEC speeches 🎙️ Crude inventory reports 🛢️ Pause entries during news events. Use trailing SLs to lock the vault behind you. ❤️ SUPPORT THE ROBBERY MISSION 💣 Smash that BOOST button if this plan hits your nerve. Let’s keep robbing liquidity zones together and growing the Thief Trader Brotherhood 🕵️‍♂️💰. 📡 Stay tuned for the next stealth heist drop. We rob the market with class. 💎🚀
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by The-Thief
WTI(20250721)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Waller refused to comment on whether he would dissent at the July meeting, saying that the private sector was not performing as well as people thought, and said that if the president asked him to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he would agree. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 66.42 Support and resistance levels 68.00 67.41 67.02 65.81 65.43 64.84 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 66.42, consider buying, and the first target price is 67.02 If the price breaks through 65.81, consider selling, and the first target price is 65.43
NYMEX:CL1!
by NicolaZhu
Crude Oil Trade Plan Scenarios and Key Levels NYMEX:CL1! It’s Wednesday today, and the DOE release is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. CT. This may provide fuel—pun intended—to push prices out of the two-day consolidation. Also, note that the August contract expires on July 22, 2025. Rollover to the September contract is expected on Thursday/Friday. You can see the pace of the roll here at CME’s pace of roll tool . The chart shows that rollover is about 70% complete, and CLU25 has higher open interest. Note, the front-month August contract is still trading at higher volume. What has the market done? Crude oil is in a multi-distribution profile since the peak witnessed during the Iran-Israel conflict. Crude oil formed a strong base above the 64s and traversed towards the 69s. Prices were rejected at these highs and have since reverted back towards the monthly Volume Point of Control, monthlyVPOC. What is it trying to do? The market is in active price discovery mode and has formed multi-distributions since June 23. The market has been consolidating after prices at highs were rejected. How good of a job is it doing? The market is active and is also providing setups against key levels. Patience to take trades from these higher time frame levels is what is required to trade crude oil currently. Otherwise, there is a lot of volatility and chop that can throw traders off their plan. Key Levels: • Yearly Open: 67.65 • Neutral zone: 67.15–67.30 • 2-Day VAL (Value Area Low): 66.40 • Neutral zone: 66.40–66.20 • 2025 Mid-Range: 65.39 • Key Support: 64.40–64.70 What is more likely to happen from here? Scenario 1: An initial attempt to push higher, pVAL and onVAL finds aggressive sellers pushing prices towards mcVPOC and yMid confluence Scenario 2: pVAL provides support for further consolidation and break back above yesterday's high and price moves towards yearly Open. Glossary: pVAL: Prior Value Area Low onVAL: Overnight Value Area Low yMid: 2025 Mid-Range mcVPOC: Micro Composite Volume Point of Control
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
WTI Crude Oil Reverses Lower Near $70 ResistanceA bearish engulfing candle has formed on the daily WTI crude oil chart, with its high perfectly respecting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement just beneath the $70 handle. Given that the bounce from the June low has been relatively weak compared to the sharp decline from $78, I’m now on alert for a potential break beneath the $64 support level. That said, the 200-day SMA and EMA currently sit between $65.21 and $65.31, which could offer near-term support. Should oil prices attempt to grind higher within the 1-hour bullish channel, bears may look to fade rallies into the weekly pivot (67.59) or the $68.00 handle, positioning for a potential rollover. A clean break below the 200-day averages would shift focus firmly back to $64, near the June low. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
WTI(20250716)Today's AnalysisMarket news: ① The annual rate of the overall CPI in the United States in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations; the annual rate of the core CPI rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, lower than the expected 3%, but slightly higher than 2.8% last month, and the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. ② Interest rate futures still show that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this month, but there is a high possibility of a 25 basis point cut in September. ③ Fed mouthpiece: The CPI report will not change the Fed's policy direction. ④ Trump: Consumer prices are low and the federal funds rate should be lowered immediately. The Fed should cut interest rates by 3 percentage points. ⑤ Fed Collins: The core inflation rate is expected to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should maintain active patience. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 65.66 Support and resistance levels: 66.49 66.18 65.98 65.34 65.14 64.83 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 65.66, consider buying, the first target price is 65.98 If the price breaks through 65.34, consider selling, the first target price is 65.14
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Oil Futures Approaching Key Reversal Zone – Bullish HarmonicOil futures may be forming a bullish Shark harmonic pattern, with price approaching the potential reversal zone at point D. This pattern suggests a possible bounce if buyers step in around this area. If price action shows signs of support or a shift in momentum, it could offer a solid long opportunity. Look for confirmation like bullish candles or indicators turning up before entering. If the pattern plays out, it could provide a strong risk-to-reward setup.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FreedomBuilder
Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Recently, crude oil has been rising, and buying is slowly climbing, but the amplitude is not particularly large. The daily line has not formed a large buying pattern. It is currently a technical repair market after falling too much. Today's idea is to sell on the rebound. Pay attention to the suppression near 70.00. If this position is broken, it may change the short-term trend and buying may rise. Fundamental analysis: Last week, Trump increased tariffs on Canada and is about to increase tariffs on Brazil. There is no sign of stopping the tariff war. It is long-term bullish for gold. The situation in the Middle East has not completely stopped, and it is also long-term suppression of the US dollar to support gold. Operation suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude Compression, Flagging Into Fire or FailureCrude Oil has been grinding higher within a clean rising wedge (bearish flag), forming within the aftermath of a strong sell-off. Price is now testing a key Intraday Fair Value Gap (1H FVG) inside a broader HTF Macro Supply Zone, while respecting a steep trend line of support. This structure sets up a textbook decision point. Continuation toward macro liquidity or reversal and breakdown. Bearish Setup (Primary Thesis) Rejection off the Intraday FVG (1H) or Macro Supply Zone. Close below green trend line with momentum/volume Bearish Entries: Entry #1 (Aggressive): $69.90–$70.10 → wick rejection inside FVG Entry #2 (Conservative): $68.20 → trendline break + close below Stop Loss Options: Tight SL: $70.80 (above intraday FVG) Wide SL: $72.50 (above macro supply zone) Bearish TPs: TP1: $67.00 → channel low TP2: $65.00 → mitigation zone TP3: $64.00 → FVG fill + prior swing low (final target) The Ideal setup: FVG rejection + trend line break + aggressive follow-through = hold for full breakdown. Bullish Setup (Alternate Scenario) Clean breakout + 1H/4H candle close above Intraday FVG. Break and retest of channel top as new support. Price holds above $70.50 with strength Bullish Entry: Breakout & retest at $70.10–$70.30 Stop Loss: Below FVG/demand pocket: $68.30 Bullish TPs: TP1: $72.50 → prior swing high TP2: $74.00 → macro trendline test TP3: $77.00 → macro liquidity sweep Best setup: breakout + retest with increasing volume and no rejection at macro supply. My Summary: Bias. - Bearish (Primary) Structure - Bearish flag within HTF downtrend Price Action - Testing overhead supply + intraday FVG Volatility - Constricted, ripe for breakout Risk Level - Low-risk entries near supply or trend line Model Tag - Mean Reversion Rejection / Momentum Breakdown This is a high-probability setup with clear invalidation on both sides. Use a confirmation based approach to reduce drawdown and avoid fake outs. Plan your entries based on how price reacts at this decision zone. Be patient the cleanest trade may be on the second move, not the first. Happy Trading everyone.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by stakkd