crude oil shortshorting crude oil
fundamental showing bullish and giving sign that it will buy heavily
CL1! trade ideas
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback.
quote from my weekly update:
short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower.
comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 75 - 79
bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling.
Invalidation is above 78.
short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
Crude is Ripping, but Where To?Crude Oil (October)
Last week’s close: Settled at 74.83, up 1.82 on Friday and down 0.71 on the week
Crude Oil rose sharply overnight after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon, and Libya’s eastern government said it will halt exports.
The two events, while unrelated, are the main cause for the sharply higher trade in Crude Oil this morning. Libya’s eastern government’s choice to halt oil production and exports was the result of a continued political tussle over the country’s central bank. Israel sent over 100 warplanes to strike thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers on Sunday - a flare-up in tensions amidst continued ceasefire talks. Furthermore, Hamas said yesterday “that U.S. talk of an imminent ceasefire deal is false and serves election purposes.”
Libya was set to export 1 million bpd of crude oil in August. A retraction of Libyan barrels from the export markets may cause ripple effects this week as geopolitical tensions continue to flare and OPEC continues mulling their planned production increases.
WTI Crude Oil futures are trading out above 76.75, the 50% retracement from the August 5th low back to the July 5th high. Previous resistance now defines support at 75.36-75.73 and again below there at 74.52-74.85, aligning with Friday’s settlement. Theis defines a clear blueprint for the bulls to hold the driver’s seat. Still, there is strong overhead resistance lurking at 78.13-78.54, but a move above could encourage forced buying.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 78.13-78.54***, 79.85-80.00***
Pivot: 76.75
Support: 75.36-75.73***, 74.52-74.85***, 74.16-74.38***
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crude oil level markhello,
crude oil level mark, green level mark as resistance & red level mark as support, wait for break out.
CRUDEOIL - INTRADAY SETUP (Aug 26)Crude Oil (4-Hour Timeframe) Analysis
Pattern: D cup formation in progress
Price Targets:
1st: 6500
2nd: 6600
3rd: 6680
Stop Loss: Near demand zone
News: Oil prices rose on Monday due to fears of regional conflict and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.
However, weak global economic outlook and OPEC's planned output increase remain concerns.
#CrudeOil #OilPrices #TechnicalAnalysis #CupFormation #TradingStrategy #StopLoss #OilNews
CRUDE**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to rise to the top of the funnel and then fall back down again.
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74.
Quote from last week:
comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 70-80
bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much.
Invalidation is below 75.
bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77.
Invalidation is above 75.1.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do.
→ Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some.
short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
Crude Oil 26 to 30 AUG 2024With double bottom formation and confirmation on the pattern. We can expect a positive bias. Once the resistance of 6662 is broken can expect a moment upto 6900 levels.
Support at 6150 and resistance at 6400 & 6662 levels.
CRUDE OIL MCXCrude oil Big movement coming in September month
can long 17 September CE and PE total cost 349 per lot one side call or put will hit 500 for sure and other side decay will not be so much as whole month is pending so good return of 20 to 40% expected
CL Long on Demand increaseLong CL retracement trade.
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VP Range Principle - Long CLI have a opportunity to buy a CL. The price may run until higher price in the range consolidation
CRUDEOIL - BREAKOUT OR NOT?Crude Oil Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)
Current Pattern: Crude oil is trading within a falling wedge channel, indicating potential for a breakout.
Breakout Levels to Watch:
Key Resistance: A break above 6185 is crucial for confirming the breakout from the wedge pattern.
Sustained Move: If crude oil can hold above 6240, it would signal strength and a higher likelihood of a bullish move.
Target: A successful breakout and sustained levels above 6240 could lead to a rally towards the identified demand zone, presenting a potential upside opportunity.
Technical Indicators: Monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the breakout strength.
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[Intra day] CL Bullish on Daily- CL Just taken out External Range Liquidty
- ERL -> IRL . I expect price to Target next the Internal Range Liquidty, to continue lower.
20240822 CLV20241) Did I follow my plan?
A) Entry
B) Exit
2) What mistakes did I make?
3) What could I have done better?
4) What rules will help me with the above?
CRUDEOIL MCX - Triple BottomCrudeoil is making triple bottom condition for time period April 2024 to August 2024.
Resistance - 6280,6400,6600
Support -6000
This chart is only for educational purpose. Do your own study before taking any trades.
TI-BRNeutral/Slight long Reg
LONG TI SHORT BRENT
TI WILL GO UP BRENT DOWN TO NARROW THE SPREAD
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CRUDE Oil level mark Hello,
crude oil level mark, wait for break out. red line mark as support & green line mark as resistance. wait for break out.
Have you ever traded the news?This is a great way to see how your instrument reacts to a news release.
Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again.
WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again.
I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year.
DS
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bear channel continued down and next target is probably 72 if 73.5 won’t hold. Pure weakness in this market.
quote from my weekly update:
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 74.5 to trade back down to 71/72.
comment: Look at that beauty of a channel. Holding like a true champ. Market is much weaker than expected and only going down. Bottom of the channel is where a pullback is expected and if bears are strong, they keep it below 74.5. Next targets for the bears are 73 and then 72. Anything above 75.5 would be a big surprise.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 72 - 75.5
bull case: Bulls are so weak that they currently can only correct sideways. They need to create a pullback at 73.4 or risk a breakout below the bear channel, where the selling would accelerate. A reasonable target for a pullback would be the breakout retest of last weeks low 74.52.
Invalidation is below 73.1.
bear case: Bears had a strong bear day again and a measured move would bring us to 71.5. If they manage to create a breakout below the bear channel, we could get there much faster than most expect. My drawn big bullish trend line from the triangle runs through 71.7, so close enough. Bears need to keep any pullback below 75, better would be below 74.5.
Invalidation is above 75.5.
short term: Pullback to at least 74.5 is expected but below 73.1 we print 72 or even 71 pretty fast.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Mostly sideways during Globex and EU session. US session opened weak and when bulls could not get above 75.5 again, bears tried again and bulls just gave up. Had to be short since the bear bar breaking below 75 and the 1h 20ema.
Oil Price Eyes Test of Monthly LowThe price of oil may attempt to test the monthly low ($71.67) as it extends the decline from the previous week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Failure to hold above the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region raises the scope for a move towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) with a breach below the January low ($69.28) opening up the December low ($67.71).
At the same time, crude may trade within in yearly range should it defend the February low ($71.41) with a move back above $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) area on the radar.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Crudeoil Weekly Update Technical Analysis: Crude Oil (1 - DAY Timeframe)
In the 1-day timeframe, we're currently observing a developing cup and handle pattern.
Should the price sustain below the demand zone, the probability of further downside increases, signaling potential bearish momentum?
Conversely, if a reversal occurs, there is a strong likelihood of a significant upside movement, with a possible 400+ point advance.
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Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on current data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
FOLLOW FOR INTRADAY SETUP ❤️
