8.9.2024 Oil Trade Oil hit my 4 hour down trend line and fell back through it.
It has also broken through a 4 hour zone. Then fell back into it. We are in short. Caution as it has large wicks back and forth right now.
CL1! trade ideas
Oil8.8.24 I spent my time on oil because it's a potential reversal area to start moving lower and if you had entered the market at the support area you would be more than 3000 ahead which is not a bad return in the few days that you would have been in the market. on the other hand it looks to me like there are no sellers in the market and I would be looking for sellers but the price action suggests that the market still has more upside to it and I wanted to talk about that because if the market really is trading well in the direction that you're Trading you want to be able to stay a little bit longer in the market even if it only gets you a point or or so because that makes a huge difference on your wrist reward numbers your overall return. unfortunately when you haven't really thought out the distinctions that can allow you to modify your decisions... it is very easy just to get out of a trade because you absolutely do not want to lose money because you have fear of losing money probably because most Traders lose more money than they make when they trade so they make a decision based on emotion and not so much the patterns and behavior of the market itself and this makes a very big difference in your profile as a Trader. I decided to talk about Al Brooks because I purchased the program of his some years ago on the advice of a friend... had a love hate relationship without Brooks....Mostly hate. I would say it took me probably 2 or 3 years to get through his package of short videos. I felt so annoyed with him at first it occurred to me that my response was so intense that I must be missing something and it's something was wrong with me. and honestly I think that course costs 4 or $500 which is nothing. to put it bluntly... my response to his program was so intensely negative I truly wondered if something was fundamentally wrong with my thinking since I hated what he was doing and I wasn't making money in the markets and that maybe there's something wrong with me. and I knew that Al Brooks had an incredible reputation and I had fear that if I threw out those videos that that might be my last chance of changing my ability at Reading the markets. I decided to give you a concept of what a spike is as Al Brooks might think of it even though this would not be the perfect example for him.... because the concept ended up being very important to my thinking even though I do almost everything else differently from Al Brooks who thinks it's fibonacci's are completely bogus and he likes to do bar counts and that's not at all how I think.... but he did provide value and he was part of the significant change in my thinking that it would take especially once I understood extensions and other things elsewhere.
Have the Bulls Regained an Edge in Crude?Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.23, up 2.03
Price action in WTI Crude Oil Futures settled at the 75.12-75.27 resistance pocket, which now stands as our Pivot and point of balance. We may have seen a shift favoring the bulls in the near term as long as price action can build a floor at the 74.45-74.60 mark. However, if support is surrendered at 73.96, it will signal the early signs of failure.
Key takeaways from yesterday’s EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report from Bloomberg:
US crude inventories fell for the sixth consecutive week, reaching the lowest since February. The six straight weeks of decline is the longest streak since January 2022. The nationwide decline of 3.73 million barrels takes stocks to around 429 million. Crude inventories at Cushing rose to 30.429 million, a weekly gain of 579,000 that was the largest increase since May 31.
Distillate inventories rose above the seasonal average of the past three years, while gasoline inventories rose even as imports fell along the East Coast. Jet fuel inventories recorded their largest draw in nearly four months at 1.1 million barrels, after soaring to a 14-year seasonal high over the last four weeks. Gasoline demand fell for a second straight week. On a four-week basis, gasoline demand ticked lower to 9.114 million barrels a day. Refinery utilization was at 90.5%, a slight improvement from last week. Still, utilization is at the lowest since the pandemic on a seasonal basis. One other nugget from imports data was that flows from Ecuador jumped to the highest this year, somewhat helping to make up Latin American imports after the drop from Mexico that Lucia noted.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 76.12-76.40***, 76.87**, 77.62***
Pivot: 75.12-75.27
Support: 74.45-74.60**, 73.96**, 73.46-73.56**, 72.74-72.94***, 72.23-72.42***, 70.703**, 70.00***
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG from HTF Discounted Demand Levels?NYMEX:CL1!
“The highest human act is to inspire.” - Nip Hussle Tha Great
Top of the TOP Fam... As we get ready for the start of a new week and the beginning of a new month, Let's stay focused on our approach and refining our EDGE in the markets. Here in this video I have created a detailed narrative on Crude OIL for the HOUSE to go LONG this week...
1) Being that Sellers have pushed price into HTF Weekly Demand Zone, let's see if buyers can develop the stronger hand and we can get a LTF 15m CHoCh...
*** If and when we can get a confirmed 15m CHoCh above price $75.05 Per Barrel. with candle closures above then I'll be compelled to enter the Market LONG from a LTF 15-5m Level of Demand and Target the HTF PIVOT ZONE above....
2) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Thursday Blow - Crude OilSo we have been short term bullish since we took the Weekly SSL and seen a nice trade higher.
I can imagine that we continue this today to take out some internal liquidity.
These are the short term targets as long as we respect the 15min FVG
GLGT
SHORT with RED UMVDGREEN BARS above RED TrapZone are Good Risk to Reward Zone forr Re-entring Short. Keep an eye on the UMVD and wait for it to Turn RED and risk one Hour Bar Stop or 2 depending
on your appetite.
CRUDEOIL - REVERSAL PATTERNCrudeoil Following the down trendline,
Also Crudeoil 5 point elliot wave getting over and taking some support from demand zone.
Immediate upside levels are - 6390,6450,6520 and 6600
Do your own research before taking any trades
My view on CRUDEOIL Crudeoil taking support of symmetrical triangle trend line on 1 week time frame.
Looking support 5980-5990
Above it seeming buying opportunity
Crude Oil Technical Analysis ( 6th AUG)
Triangle pattern
Current Outlook: Consolidation
Crude oil is currently trading sideways around the 6221 support level.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout: A sustained move above the 6245 level could signal a bullish trend, with initial resistance at 6300.
Bearish Continuation: A breakdown below the 6210 support may lead to a retest of the 6135 level.
Trader Action: Closely monitor price action for a clear breakout signal to determine the next potential move.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Oil (CL) Should Continue Lower to Build an Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)).
Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)) ended at 76.40 low. The market built an expanded flat correction as wave ((iv)) finishing at 78.60 high and turned lower again. CL broke below wave ((iii)) to end wave ((v)) of 1 at 74.59 low and also we ended wave 1 of (3). Up from wave 1, the market bounce in a zig zag correction ending wave 2 at 78.88 high and starting wave 3 of (3) to the downside. After 5 swings lower, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 71.67 low and currently we are calling 3 swings higher to end wave ((ii)) pullback before resuming lower. Therefore, we expect further downside to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 78.88 high stays intact, expect rallies to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Crude Oil with Wyckoff accumulation patterns in the backgroundSeems like market is changing the behavior. Wyckoff Volume Wave Chart indicator shows lack of further supply and shows big guys stepping in the market.
crude oil updatecrude almost make new low near double bottom noe styaa bv 6130 looks up side till 63-6500 buy on dips sl with 6045
Gold ES8 4 24 in this video I spend more time showing the significance of expansion because an expanded Market has different trade locations then a market that is not expanding. the chances are you won't see expanding markets until you learn what they look like and make the commitment to work with it to see if it's something that will help you.
8.3.2024 Oil Weekend Pre Market AnalysisIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading.
We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it..
Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
Crude Steps and Forces- all rectangles are potential support/resistance with the last one blue being a probable exception
- the 3 marked with dots levels can also become support/resistance, especially the first bottom blueish one, but they can also become like milestones levels or steps in the evolution of the price
- the 2 green curves are also potential support/resistance acting as forces pushing the price up or down
This snapshot considers the bullish scenario where the price remains above 66, with potential reversal patterns to occur near the red rectangle zone.
CrudeoilM1! ShortThis is Crudeoil Short Trade;
In This Trade you Clearly looks for "Mother Setup" - (Trend+Momentum+PriceAction+Strength)
How i Identify this Trade:
First of All, I look in 125 min chart:
This is a Sync of Strength + Trend(Long&Short), Then Can be Bullish or Then can be Bearish;
after that, If I Find a Good Sync of Strength + Long Trend + Short Trend (in this Case, We find Bearish)
then, i Go for Smaller TimeFrame(15min):
in Smaller Chart, There Should be a Same Sync as in Long TimeFrame;
means(in this Trade) --> Both the Clouds are Bearish and Strength is Also Bearish in Table
How i Plan the Trades:
For Execution: first of All i plot Pivots of All Time Frame; like Traditional(Auto, Daily, Weekly, Monthly) + Fibbonaci(Auto, Daily, Weekly, Monthly) then i mark all the levels near price;
we can also use Fibbonacci Retracements or Extensions for finding levels
After Major Breakdown i Enter to the Trade(Bearish Trade) with BgRainbowMomentum ;
After Major BreakOut i Enter to the Trade(Bullish Trade) with BgRainbowMomentum ;
Targets are Major Levels;
Sl will be Last 3 Candles(Entry candle+2nd last+3rd Last) Highest point of Entry Candle(Bearish trade)
This i Very Simple and Quite Good Setup to Trade; because there are All the Keys to Success:
Trend + Momentum + PriceAction + Strength
Crude Oil LongTriangle pattern. When it breaks out of the triangle it will make a big move to which ever side it breaks. I am bullish on crude and my play is that it breaks upwards.
Disclaimer: I have long positions in crude.
CRUDEOIL - INTRADAY SETUP - AUG 2ndTechnical Analysis: Crude Oil (1-Hour Timeframe)
Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Trade Setup:
Entry: Below 6410
Target: 6360
Stop Loss: 6436
Rationale:
The price is currently below the crucial level of 6410. A break below this level suggests a potential bearish trend. The target of 6360 represents a potential downside move. However, if the price moves above 6436, it invalidates the bearish setup.
Risk Management:
The stop loss at 6436 is placed to limit potential losses if the market moves against the trade.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on the provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Thursday Climb Crude Oil As this week has been short term Bullish I am looking for continuation today.
At around NY open I would like to head down into the 1hr FVG and then show signs it wants to move higher towards the BSL that is marked
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 29-AUG 2: OIL INDICES GOLD SILVERThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast JuLY 22 - 26th
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
QM BreakoutQM is up big on the session, likely due to war news regarding Iran and Israel. This could lead to a sustained breakout, but it is stalling now at previous highs. I'll be watching things like this, silver, and other commodities if the war escalation continues.
CL1! - Contracting Volatility, on watch for break of structureVolatility is down, will look for major news events / break of structure to see if we replicate. Will look for a break above / below weekly level and play the opposite direction with tight stops. Ideally watch daily for failed follow through on
entry.
US Crude Oil Prices Hover at $82: Bearish Setup in Sight?US crude oil prices continue to fluctuate within a sideways trading range, currently hovering around the $82.00 mark. This consolidation phase has presented an intriguing supply area, suggesting a potential bearish movement in the near term.
In this context, it's essential to consider the positions of various market participants. Commercial traders, who often include producers and large institutions, are maintaining a bearish stance. This bearish sentiment from the commercial side contrasts with the behavior of retail traders, who are currently in buying mode. This divergence between commercial and retail positions can be a significant indicator of potential market direction.
Given the current market conditions, we are monitoring this supply area for a bearish setup. On a daily timeframe, the possible targets for this bearish movement are the next demand areas. These zones represent potential levels where buying interest might re-emerge, providing support to the prices.
While there isn't a strong seasonal trend supporting a bearish continuation, statistical analysis suggests that there could be a bearish impulse lasting until mid-August. This potential decline aligns with historical patterns, even though the current market lacks a definitive seasonal bias for a prolonged bearish trend.
The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions provides a nuanced view of market sentiment. Commercial traders' bearish outlook, combined with the retail traders' bullish stance, creates a dynamic environment that could lead to significant price movements. This scenario highlights the importance of closely monitoring market sentiment and positioning to identify potential trading opportunities.
In conclusion, US crude oil prices remain in a sideways range around $82.00, with an interesting supply area indicating a possible bearish movement. The contrasting positions of commercial and retail traders add complexity to the market outlook. Despite the absence of strong seasonal trends, statistical analysis suggests a potential bearish impulse until mid-August. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these factors when developing their trading strategies in the current market environment.
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