2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bears in full control and the 4h ema is king. Bulls are also making money buying new lows, so we have some two sided trading, despite the bear strength.
comment: 4h 20ema. Add that to your wti crude oil chart and trade it. Market is respecting it and there are amazing trades to be made. How long will it continue? No one knows but markets tend to do what they have been doing. Intertia. The bear channel is also looking good for now. Where could be the next bigger support for the bulls? 64.46 was my bigger target for the bears and they already reached it. The 2023-12 low is at 63.21 and the next support below would be 60. For now I think shorts are not favored near the lower bear trend line and I would only look for shorts near the 4h ema. Can you long this? You can but stop would probably be 64.7ish because 65 could easily get tested.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 63 - 71
bull case: Bulls are content with scalping long at new lows. They are quick to exit once bigger bears come around and that’s why the selling ist mostly done via quick spikes (roughly 1h in length). Since we are at the lows of the bear channel, r:r favors the bulls for 67 or 68.
Invalidation is below 64.7.
bear case: Bears are in obviously in control. The selling is orderly with pull backs and we are in a decent channel down. Also true is that bears take profits at new lows, hence the pullbacks to the 4h ema. 63 to 67 was an area where the market produced a lot of tails below the bars in December and January. I doubt bears can continue this strong through that price area.
Invalidation is above 68.8.
short term: Bullish for retest of the upper bear channel and 4h ema. SL is 64.7.
medium-long term: Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Once again, a short near the 4h ema.
