One more shove down before blastoff...?This can get a "c" wave down to the area on the chart, then begin a very bullish wave 5. One step at a time though! Looking for confirmation of a low somewhere between 618 and 886 fibs.
CL1! trade ideas
CL-Oil Moving forward..This week I have a eye on 80.50 for price to reach.
We have closed in the weekly fvg and now lying within a Daily FVG and Daily V.i
The Daily V.i is important to reference as Monday we can trade higher into this.
price is at crucial spot81.81-82.30 can play pivotal role for the next movement, if trade above, then 85.25 could be its target zone and if trade below, then oil can reach 78.81
Oil settles slightly higher as Iran plays down reported Israeli Oil settled slightly higher on Friday, but posted a weekly decline, after Iran played down a reported Israeli attack on its soil, a sign that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East might be avoided.
Brent futures settled up 18 cents, or 0.21%, at US$87.29 a barrel.
The front-month US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May ended 41 cents higher, or 0.5%, to US$83.14 a barrel. The more active June contract closed 12 cents higher at US$82.22 a barrel.
Both benchmarks spiked more than US$3 a barrel earlier in the session after explosions were heard in the Iranian city of Isfahan in what sources described as an Israeli attack. However, the gains were capped after Tehran played down the incident and said it did not plan to retaliate.
Investors had been closely monitoring Israel's response to Iranian drone and missile attacks on April 13 that was in turn a response to a presumed Israeli air strike on April 1 that destroyed a building in Iran's embassy compound in Damascus.
Meanwhile, US lawmakers have added sanctions on Iran's oil exports to a pending Ukraine aid package after Tehran's strike on Israel last weekend.
Iran is the third largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), according to Reuters data.
Oil is back into the rodeo areaAnd we are back into the dancing area. Of course the price went up because the news of the war, let's see tomorrow how the prices will dance, if in their "safety area" between 84.01 for longs and 87.60 for shorts... or will be up following Arabia Saudita wishes on 100
Oil leading to end of week.So as in my previous forecast we have now closed daily bellow the Weekly FVG
My next target will be 80.50 by end of week.
Thats it for this week.... :)
Why Is Today's Low Crucial For Crude Oil?Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.15, down 2.68
June WTI Crude Oil futures are now front month and our levels are updated below. A sharp move, in this case the two-day drop, is not uncommon during times of roll and post option expiration as Crude Oil tends to cleanse positioning. With geopolitics front and center as the weekend approaches, major three-star support was tested head on at 80.78-81.06. This aligns with the gap close and gap open after a pennant consolidation from March 20th through March 27th.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 82.70-82.82**, 83.32-83.44***, 84.01-84.39***
Pivot: 82.01-82.15
Support: 81.45**, 80.78-81.11***, 80.12***, 78.80-79.02***, 78.01-78.43
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Geopolitical Conflicts and Markets - Market outperform the rest!Which market is a better hedge when a geopolitical conflict started. I know many will say that it must be crude oil. Over the past 2 major conflicts, we could see that crude oil did not gain any momentum, in fact it came off.
So which markets have reacted positively to all these tensions so far, and will continue to remain this way with future tensions?
My name is Kon How, my work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities.
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Scalpers paradise is a thingLet's see where we are by the 5-7am EST window. This view is a combination of Elliott Wave analysis and supply/demand zones. Can be a powerful combo for scalping.
Crude Oil Futures Trade In a Narrow RangeTechnical Momentum Weakens
Crude Oil futures have stalled after rising in 2024 after trading at the upper price band of $88/barrel and lower price band of $84/barrel. The technical perspective shows momentum studies correcting from overbought territories, with the 9-day moving average stalling above 18-day. DMI + is narrowing in on DMI -, indicating that the market is consolidating, while the Average True Range firms to $1.66 per day.
EIA Inventories Rise
EIA Inventory tightness has reversed recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Current EIA inventories are 457 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 466 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Mid-West have also narrowed recently, showing 33 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 40 million barrels.
Recent API Data has shown another build of 4 million barrels.
An Expanding Economic Tailwind
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, fueling investor sentiment. Geopolitical Tension also plays a wildcard with the possibility of a widening Middle-Eastern conflict.
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Is crude oil about to crap the bed? 80.32 coming soon? Had a decent chance for a long setup, but this move today is pushing the limits on bullish structure. Now there is a clear setup for lower if this level breaks. LOB
Learning to survive in the bouncer. The oil moves in an established area, if it touches 84 it will go up and if it touches 87 it will go down, until it is encouraged to establish new records, the key is to catch the same step as the oil to dance together.
Crude Oil Consolidating Within UptrendCrude oil stabilized this week around $84 per barrel on the May 2024 contract, from which we are seeing some nice rebounds after recent events between Iran and Israel. There is a risk that this escalation will not be over anytime soon, so energy prices may remain in an uptrend, possibly heading for a higher fifth wave back above last week's highs. If the market suddenly breaks below $84, there could still be support around $83.50, justifying a more complex pullback for wave four, but still indicative of a correction.
The Crude Oil SetupCrude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 85.41, down 0.25
Crude Oil futures have traded in a quiet range, going back through last week, outside of an early Friday morning geopolitical spike. A slate of economic data from China last night printed better Q1 GDP results at 5.3% versus 4.8%, but Industrial Production and Retail Sales whiffed. However, U.S. Retail Sales yesterday came in much stronger than expected, leading to a revision higher in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.8%. It is important to note that Crude Oil has reacted favorably to surprisingly resilient and strong U.S. economic data, especially that which highlights the consumer.
Waves of weakness over the last week have helped define a floor at $84 and just above, while the gap settlement from April 1st sits just below at 83.71. This establishes a line in the sand in which the bulls can become more comfortable leaning against. However, a break below could quickly open the floodgates.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.72-85.86**, 86.09-86.29**, 86.81**, 87.34-87.67***, 88.37-88.64***
Pivot: 85.32-85.35
Support: 84.69***, 84.04-84.33***, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Oil bouncing in it's safe area Looks like oil found its secure area for now, just bouncing between 84.01 and 87.60. Giving us short longs and small shorts hourly.
Crude Oil WTI ~ If $85 holds, then this count projects higher Standard ratio between Elliott Waves 1 through 3 versus wave 5 is 618/886 zone, which is shown in an aqua box. Call the target the $92 region for wave 5 of some degree.
Crude Oil MondayAs in previous post on Sunday -
So we have dipped our toes into the weekly fvg
May leave a low in place here to raid it again later, want to see weekley CE respected.. as its London and Monday this could be the judas swing... wait for more info and cme or 830 open.
Any Longs from me will need market to show displacement on 15min or 1hr tf... no rush
New supercycle soonI think that now there is wave 2 of the big 3rd wave of the supercycle. So in a few years oil will break its highs.
next possible HH or turnas its in uptrend, so its possible price can reach next HH after HL, lets see how these marked zone play in coming time
Oil prices fall after Iran attack -Oil prices fell during trade on Monday, as market participants dialled back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.
-Brent futures for June delivery fell 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $90.25 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 33 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.33 a barrel by 0225 GMT.
-The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.
-But the attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.
-An attack was largely priced in the days leading up to it. Also the limited damage and the fact that there was no loss of life means that maybe Israel's response will be more measured.
-As Iran currently produces over 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil as the fourth-largest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), supply risk includes more strictly enforced oil sanctions and that Israel's response could include targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, ING said in a client note on Monday.
Crude Oil Forecast1- A dip into weekly fvg would be ideal before a meaningful push up towards the daily eqh's
2- I don't see why they would raid them so soon so that where my intra day bearish stance is.
3-Overall Im Bullish
4- Staying above Monthly open and the FVG next to it is key to remaining bullish, yes we can wick into these areas but most importantly is the body of the candle doesn't close within.
