4-Tap Rejection. Compression. Breakdown Incoming?This is a mechanical short setup mapped out ahead of the Sunday futures open. It’s based on clean structure, distribution signals, and a confirmed internal shift in trend via iBOS but it’s not a blind breakdown short. The setup respects demand proximity, prior lows, and the risk of early-week traps. Read on.
Structure Breakdown
Over the last two weeks, price has rejected four times from a defined supply zone ($67.50–$68.50). On the 4th tap, we saw a classic stop hunt price wicked just above previous highs, then failed to hold. That failure led to an internal break of structure (iBOS), as price dropped through a prior key low and is now compressing just above a rising daily trend line. This forms the classic "liquidity grab → structure shift → compression" model and we’re now watching for the final leg lower.
Short Setup Summary
Entry Zone - 66.00–65.90 (on break & retest)
Stop Loss (Kill Switch) - 67.50 above structural trap high
TP1 63.80 - front-run of demand
TP2 61.40 - full extension to macro demand
This is a structure-first play no indicators, no guesswork. Only confirmed breaks, trap recognition, and clean execution.
Demand + PDL Conflict
It’s important to note, the short trigger area (around 66.00) sits very close to both a demand zone and the Previous Day’s Low (PDL). This makes it a high-probability bounce zone if price stalls. It also means the first move might be a fake out before the real leg begins. That’s why the short is only valid if we get a clean break, retest, and failure, not just a trend line touch or spike.
Kill Switch Logic
The stop is placed at 67.50, just above the stop hunt wick.. If price breaks above this, the setup is off plain and simple. The market would be shifting toward re-accumulation, and we won’t fight that.
Sunday Futures Open Considerations
This plan is published before the Sunday 6PM open. Crude is notorious for weekend-induced volatility. Thin order books and macro news = unreliable early moves.
Three Potential Scenarios:
1. Spike into Kill Switch
2. Watch for a fast trap above $67.00
3. If price rejects back under $66.80, it becomes a higher-quality short
Wait for confirmation no entry on open. Gap Down / Immediate Breakdown. If price breaks through $65.90 fast, wait for the pullback into structure on Monday to short safely. Push and Hold Above 67.50
Setup invalidated
- Structure rotates bullish, we stand aside
- Stay mechanical. Let the market confirm bias before executing.
Staakd Model Checklist
1. Quad Rejection in Supply
2. Stop Hunt Confirmed (Tap #4)
3. iBOS (Internal Break of Support)
4. Daily Trend line Compression
5. Clean Risk Control via Kill Switch
6. Demand and PDL Caution Integrated
This is how we structure high-conviction trades no emotion, no indicators, just mechanics.
