Natty GangBuy green. Sell orange. Natural gas isnt going anywhere just like nuclear. use all the energy we need it all
HH1! trade ideas
Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming.Over the course of 48 trading days between the Dec. 13 high and the Feb. 3 low, natural gas has lost 69 percent of its value.
Let's put that into perspective. Just imagine if, over the next 2 months:
Gold went from $1,874 to $590
WTI crude went from $79.72 to $24.17
Bitcoin futures went from $21,775 to $6,750
The SPX went from 4099.75 to 1,270
That's the kind of thing that just happened to natural gas, and naturally, it makes people wonder if they can get long, but they're also scared to get long.
And it's fair to be scared. NG's MMs are the biggest maniacs in any commodity or equity and a fall from $2.50 to $1.25 isn't "just a dollar" anymore, it's 50%, which kind of matters when you're levered long on 2-3x ETFs or just trying to trade big lot COMEX.
Regardless, I believe the time is right to go long. I don't believe the time is right to go long for $18. But I do believe that the time is right to bag the better part of an impending - and sharp - 50-75% move.
Eyes on China
I have to urge readers that you simply must be cautious with any long position at present, for the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in Mainland China is extremely dangerous.
Whatever you choose to believe when it comes to the Chinese Communist Party, I won't give you a hard time. If you want to believe the establishment narrative that Xi Jinping's hysterical Zero COVID weld-people-in-apartment-buildings social credit scheme actually made the virus not kill anyone to the degree that the Mainland, despite being the world's (formerly) most populous country and ground zero of the epidemic has suffered tens or hundreds of times less deaths and cases than the west , okay, you do you.
But when you see Zero-COVID fall, the Party says there were suddenly tens of thousands of new deaths and millions of new cases, and then since Jan. 10, the John Hopkins University tracker has reported ***0.00*** new cases, every single red alarm bell in your whole body should be ringing.
In our lifetimes, we will see the Chinese Communist Party fall. It will probably take Xi Jinping down with it, but it might not. And ultimately all the crimes against humanity the Party has committed, especially the 23-year persecution of Falun Gong and the unprecedented live organ harvesting of its practitioners (and Uyghur Muslims) will become the only thing in the world that matters.
Markets will actually gap down those days and won't come back. Wall Street won't be risk-on, at all, anymore. And thus, the algos won't be market making anymore.
The Call
Last year, I had two extremely successful calls on Natural Gas:
Published in October: Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2"
I don't think anyone believed that at the time.
And in September, I had called when the market had finally turned from bear to bull: Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer
Now, it's nice to have had some success, but please remember:
1. Broken clocks are still right twice a day
2. Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Now, for where we're currently at, there are some key factors:
Natural gas went down in a straight line for 33 trading sessions (thanks, Freemasons!)
The first trading day of the year was a gap dump
A brief sweep of the $10 psyop figure was _not_ the medium or long-term top.
2020 already had months of 1-handle
NG hasn't taken the December '20 monthly pivot at $2.2 and has started to show signs of reversal
We're getting close to summer, which is going to be HOT again because the planet's climate is trashed (just not from that CO2 propaganda nonsense. Earth is just an old man on life support, for real.)
Natural gas is this thing that produces most of the world's electricity, in a world that's using ever more electricity all the time
And so what I would ultimately like to point out is the ONLY thing you need to know as a trader:
A bounce from Friday's session close back to the gap set on the first trading day of the year amounts to a 75% gain.
Now let's say that the MMs aren't going to squeeze shorts that badly or reward bulls, even temporarily. Either way, the algorithm is for sure going to rebalance this extreme of a drop, and even if it were to rebalance 50%, you're still looking at a 35% gain.
I believe that for certain NG is about to bounce. It's just that either:
a) The bottom isn't yet in
b) The bottom is in after a 90% retrace to the $2.35 bottoms (this should occur when Nasdaq goes ham as Wall Street "Big Shorts" tech to retail and Cathie Woods)
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears
$3.6 - $3.8 is the conservative upside target
$4.2 - $5.0 is the maniac upside target
Either way, I don't believe it's going to V-Bottom and run $18 and feed inflationary pressures, since equities need to go up before they go down, and CPI printing big gains will really get in the way of the narrative being woven by Citadel's PR firms.
I think this spike should come fast and strong and the retrace won't be that bad, but will be consolidate-y.
July of 2023 and straight through the middle of 2024, if humanity makes it functionally that long, is going to be very inflationary and very chaotic.
The status quo, the old normalcy, is long gone, and never coming back. Mankind is walking towards both the end, and its future.
Be careful. You choose your path with your heart and your conduct.
Natural Gas - Details. Financial WaveOur priority scenario in NG is a pullback of the price in wave 4 to $3.5. A slight decline before the rise is possible, but not below $1.423. Resistance at Friday's high of 2.24 should (ideally) remain unchanged until wave B is considered complete.
NG: UpdateUpdate to my previous NG idea.
Now that my bearish target was hit (see previous idea), I now think this is a long.
These are just my thoughts, not advice!
Safe trades!
Natural Gas Full Bear Control | Potential Equilibrium - NG UNG full bear control, need to see a hourly trend change to the bull for anything to happen.
- potential Equilibrium shape up on daily time frame if bulls can hold above $2
- daily 12 EMA resistance
EW analysis - NG long term interpretationThe post with the short term analysis for NG has gotten quite cluttered.
So today I start a knew thread with more of a long term analysis.
Unfortunately commodities most often don't adhere to the five wave pattern of the impulsive movement. Commodities rather form connected big three wave moves.
So I like the idea that we are in wave C of a bigger wave Y down.
Problem with a wave Y is, it could be finished already.
Why I still prefare the interpretation that it is not the bottom is that fact, that for one the five wave pattern doesn't look finished and we didn't really see a volume explosion at the bottom.
On the other hand the postion of the commercials due to the CoT-Report is quite extrem. So both scenarios are possible.
For the shorter time frame we will definetely look to the upside.
The bottom search was detail work.
Now updates will come with a reduced frequency.
Natural Gas Analysis and Forecast (BUY)Based on the analysis and forecast of natural gas , the trend line has experienced an upward break. As a result, there is an anticipation of a continuation of the bullish trend , which may lead to the price reaching the 3.000 level. As per the forecasters, the massive spring storm from the western US is likely to generate severe weather conditions across a 1,000-mile stretch from the Great Lakes to Texas. The storm system is anticipated to bring blizzards, freezing rain, tornadoes, and heavy showers, with tornadoes posing the most significant potential threat in certain regions of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee valleys.
Such extreme weather conditions can impact the supply and demand dynamics of natural gas . For instance, if the storm causes a disruption in the production, transportation or distribution of natural gas , it could reduce the supply of natural gas . At the same time, extreme weather conditions can increase demand for natural gas , as people may use it more for heating or cooling purposes. This change in the supply-demand balance could potentially lead to a change in natural gas prices. However, it's worth noting that the extent of the impact will depend on the magnitude and duration of the storm, as well as the resilience of the natural gas infrastructure in the affected areas.
Inversion of Natural Gas is comingAfter the long descent, gas is showing signs of recovery and seems to be following a rising channel towards 3$
Natural Gas - Weekly. Financial WaveOur priority scenario in NG is a pullback of the price in wave 4 to 3.5 $ after which, most likely, NG will go to the final descending wave 5 and the price can come to 1.5 $, but not below 1.423 $
NATGAS Will Go Up! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS was trading in a
Downtrend but after the
Retest of the support level
At 2.00$ we saw a bullish
Reaction so I think that
We will see a further
Move up towards 2.259
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
NG1! Will Go Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for NG1!.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2.111.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2.322.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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NG: Quick Analysis Quick analysis on NG Futures/ ETF BOIL (Bull share) and KOLD (bear share).
No recommendation here. I expect some continuation to the downside. As we are making ATLs, we should look for a bottoming pattern first before considering a long position.
These are just my thoughts.
Safe trades everyone!
✅NATGAS BROKE THE WEDGE|LONG🚀
✅NATGAS was trading in a
Downtrend in a falling wedge
Pattern but after the retest
Of the horizontal support
At around 2.0$ which is also
A strong round number we saw
A rebound and a breakout out
Of the falling wedge so we are
Now locally bullish biased
And I think that the target
Of 2.3$ will be retested
LONG🚀
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Natural Gas BULLISH DIVERGENCE on DAILY TFThe price trading at Lower level and there is RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE also on weekly chart which indicating that price has not much momentum and strength to go further downside .On the daily chart, the RSI indicator is also close to crossing below 30, Signaling overbought conditions.
👉 RSI DIVERGENCE does not confirm that the price will reverse but divergence indicates that the price does not have the strength to go down. So for any upside view let the price confirms the strong Reversal for any upside momentum.✅
Mar 27,23-NG-Price ain't going up!SO - from my last post, thinking price would rally even 500 points failed to occur. Sucks but that's the world we live in currently. Even with the contract rolling over there is no chance of a rally. The IEA says inventories are 22% above the 5 year average - this combined with winter being over in the U.S. means no demand for NG.
So, I am sitting on the sidelines, waiting. Price may go well below 2 this week, maybe 1.7.....maybe even 1.5 - who knows.
Anyway, I'll be looking at other trades - maybe oil, and the S & P 500 to make some money.
Take care and stay safe.
Heiko
NATURAL GAS - Potential Upward MovementNATURAL GAS refilling at demand zone and about to rebound. Exit at 2nd supply zone
A catch up game btw WTI and NG: Which one meet the other?Something does not look right...NG to go up or oil to come down?
Change to positive trend (NG long)I consider NG changed to positive trend. New entry level to long position around 2.3-2.4. Will follow the price movement at smaller timeframe at this level.
NATURAL GAS Confirmed our long-term view, now turning sideways.Those who follow us for long, know that we tend to utilize long-term patterns, especially cyclical pattern that give a high probability of return as they filter out the day-to-day noise from the news. Natural Gas (NG1!) is no exception and our multi-year Cycles analysis last January proves that:
As the price continued to free-fall, we now find it useful to better explain the situation to you, to turn back to the 1D time-frame and compare the 2022/23 Cycle to 2014/15. As you see the correlation is fairly high. Both started on a 1D Death Cross, with the 1D RSI deeply overbought. As the price never broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 20 2022, it appears that we are in a similar level as February 2015 when after a test of the first Support Zone (green), the price rebounded, got rejected on the 1D MA50 and then turned sideways to break it.
It stayed neutral for basically 6 months before starting a new multi-month round of heavy selling. The signal to sell it again was when the price was at its closest to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The downside potential is significant and goes lower than the previous Low of 1.450, which is our long-term target.
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Way down open ( NG short)After decline below 2.39 with test the way further down to 2.20 and 2.02 is open.
Due to oversold RSI and RSI Stoch. I will wait for better etrance point to short.
Entrance at 2.39 will be best to ride the short.
Stay tune, will provide updates on this idea and my scenario.
NGAS BUY! TARGET 3.50 USD/ 4.20 USD (GAP)Hi,
RSI level show us very good moment to catch NGAS BUY.
TP1 : 3 USD
TP2: 3.50 USD
Long Term Target : 4.20 USD (GAP
Good Luck !
