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JKM1! trade ideas

Nat Gas Pre Report Idea: 2/19/25 Today I exited my call options, earlier than planned. I had originally planned on exiting my calls sometime before the market opened premarket, New York, on Thursday. But the two days of short covering has led to such a massive move that it prompted me to take my profits early. Fundamentally I am looking at the same thing the big boys are looking at. The artic cold is here, production is down because of freeze offs, LNG at historic rates, big EIA withdrawal tomorrow, contract rollover Tuesday, yada, yada, yada (sounding like a broken record already!) But this is what has moved the price, plus the shorts being squeezed for the last two days (can't wait to see the COT report Friday!) And NG traders love to sell the rally. So with the expected warm up next week, and the weekend approaching, I have been talking about selling my positions ahead of the mass exit before Friday. So I always keep the phrase in the back of my head, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered!" So I think a $1.00 move in the price is rich enough for me. So I exited my positions this afternoon. As planned, I entered into a 5 block of $4.250 putts that I will hold over the weekend. I am expecting the price to fall back to 3735 level, which is at the 9D SMA on the NGH25 contract. At which time I plan to exit. I continue to believe that the market is a bit over extended at the moment. The price has moved above the upper SD of the BB on the continuous contract, and blowing past the 3 SD level of the BB on the current contract. On the continuous contract the 100% fib level has been reached, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, and beginning to show signs of divergence, and the RSI on the current month contract is way into overbought territory. I am firmly in belief that March will be colder than averages, but it must be remembered that the days are getting longer and the HDD going lower. We are five weeks out from the end of the withdrawal season and spring will eventually come. But fundamentally we are in a different place than the previous two years, and can expect higher pricing going into the shoulder season. Which I will begin to discuss in a few weeks. But for now, I took my profits, will ride the price down with the warmer weather coming next week, and will reenter sometime the middle of next week, probably right before next weekend. These have been fantastic weekends to hold over, if your taking the correct position! Which I believe is the case this weekend also. So good luck and fortunes to all. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
3
U.S. Natural Gas and LNG Market: Demand and Supply The U.S. natural gas market remains a key focal point as production levels hold steady while seasonal demand and geopolitical factors introduce volatility. According to the latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, total U.S. natural gas inventories declined, reflecting increased consumption during winter. Meanwhile, the growing role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in global trade is reshaping market dynamics. U.S. Natural Gas Supply and Storage Trends • Total natural gas production remains high, ensuring stable domestic supply. • Storage withdrawals have accelerated due to heating demand, keeping inventories in line with seasonal trends. • The Henry Hub spot price FRED:DHHNGSP has shown fluctuations, with short-term price spikes driven by cold weather and export activity. LNG Exports and Global Market Impact The U.S. continues to expand its LNG export capacity, making it a dominant player in global gas markets. Current exports stand at 13–14 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), with peak capacity reaching 16 bcf/d. LNG has become a strategic tool, not only for trade but also for geopolitical influence. Key Export Destinations: Europe and Asia remain primary buyers, with European demand increasing due to reduced Russian pipeline flows. Potential Disruptions: Any restrictions on Russian LNG exports or transit issues in key regions (e.g., the Panama Canal) could further tighten supply and push prices higher. Price Outlook and Market Implications • The U.S. natural gas market is expected to remain well-supplied, preventing extreme price spikes domestically. • Global LNG prices, however, are more susceptible to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. • With the Trump administration prioritizing stable domestic energy prices, LNG exports may face policy-driven limitations to prevent domestic shortages.
NYMEX:NG1!
by igorisaev
# **Natural Gas (NG1!) – Entering a Bullish Cycle?** Based on **Elliott Wave Theory**, the **first and second waves** in the larger degree have been completed, signaling the **start of a new cycle**. The current structure suggests two possible **1-2 setups**, indicating a **high probability** that the market is within an **extended third wave**. ### **Bullish Scenario (Aggressive View):** 📌 A **break above the previous peak** will confirm bullish momentum. 📌 While a corrective structure may form, any retracement is expected to be **shallow** before the next impulsive move. 📌 If this scenario unfolds, we anticipate a strong advance driven by the **sub-waves of the third wave**. ### **Key Levels to Watch:** 🎯 **First Target Range:** **$4.357 – $4.409** 🎯 **Main Target Zone:** **$5.296 – $6.183** (Expanded Target) 🚨 **Invalidation Levels:** 🔴 **Bullish structure weakens** below **$2.990**. 🔴 **Full invalidation** occurs at **$1.874**. This analysis follows a **technical approach using Elliott Wave structures** and should not be considered financial advice. As always, risk management is key.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
5
Natural Gas in Demand ZoneWhen natural gas is in a demand zone, it typically indicates a price level or area where buying interest is strong enough to reverse or halt a downward trend. This concept is often used in technical analysis by traders to identify potential entry points for long positions. Demand Zone Definition: A demand zone is a price range where buyers are likely to step in, creating support and potentially driving prices higher. It is often identified on a price chart as an area where the price previously reversed from a downtrend. Why Natural Gas Might Be in a Demand Zone: Seasonal Factors: Natural gas demand often increases during winter (heating season) or summer (cooling season), creating strong buying interest at certain price levels. Oversold Conditions: If natural gas prices have fallen sharply, traders may see the current price as undervalued, leading to increased buying. Fundamental Support: Factors like low inventory levels, production cuts, or geopolitical events can create strong demand at specific price points. How Traders Might React Long Positions: Traders may consider entering long positions if natural gas is in a demand zone, anticipating a price rebound. Stop-Loss Orders: To manage risk, traders often place stop-loss orders just below the demand zone.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by trad_corn
Nat Gas Weekly Update: 2/17/25Weather, Demand, Exports, Storage, Contract Rollover Natural gas pricing acted as predicted for the trading week. After rallying for the week over 12%, it hit resistance at the upper band of the BB. After selling my positions at the 3730 level I took my profits and entered a short position which I had plan to exited at 3590. I did hold my shorts over the weekend, placing a sell order before close on Friday. I entered another set of $4. 00 calls an hour after opening Sunday night, after the volatility settled down to aid pricing. I am predicting one more bounce higher for the week, before the weather turns for the last week of the month. I am expecting another run back up to 4000 sometime after the news of Polar Vortexes, freeze offs, production declines, historic LNG productions, and a very very large EIA report. Whooo, that’s a mouth full!!! I am expecting to exit my positions sometime around Thursday morning before the market opens in NY. But I am quite excited as things continue to line up for March, and possibly April. The video will discuss my beliefs and the information which I hope will verify, again. I will continue to watch support at the 9D SMA around the 3500 mark and begin to pay close attention at the 78.6% retracement lever around 3750. I am beginning to chart off the continuous contract since we are coming up to the last full week for the current contract. I prefer to trade off the current contract chart until that last week, on all the positions I trade. I predict an upward channel, trading between these levels until we have velocity below/above each of those prices. So, there should be a nice trading range for three days until selling begins in earnest for the contract roll over. This week will be down right frigid from the Rocky Mountain to the East Coast of the US, with special attention up to the Appalachian Mountain. Throw in the rumors, and rumors of a big East Coast super snow storm, and my mouth begins to water for freeze offs. Also, LNG production continues to edge to historic levels as the cold air aids in helping the physics behind compressing all that NG. Plus, Europe at low storage levels and an increase in Asian buying. Throw in historic February demand for heating, and we have a nice set up for next weeks EIA report. February is looking to be one of the top three supply withdrawal months in record, followed by January coming in at number 2. Rigg activity continues to stay at depressed rates, and this is setting up 2025 to be a very promising year for upward pricing. The talk and verification about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is continuing to evolve, which has lent itself to some of the coldest March’s in history past. Not to mention April! So, my belief is that we continue to draw in storage going into the shoulder season when April begins. Which the EIA is starting to assess in its weekly STEO report. They are predicting HH spot to average close to 3800 for the remainder of 2025! So, keep those shovels ready, and the heaters burning, because after next weeks moderation in US temps, I think the Ground Hog was right. Remember that the meteorology will again beat the models! It will get warm days 8-14. But I am going to look to enter the short and hold on until the models begin to see the cold returning around the end of next week. Next week will probably be a great weekend to hold onto longs over the weekend. Winter is sticking around. Keep it burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
NATGAS What Next? SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 3.726 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3.366 Safe Stop Loss - 3.935 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
3
Nat Gas Daily Brief: Trump Tariffs 2/10/25There has been a great deal of talks about Trump Tariffs and the effect on the NG market. While my personal belief is that Trump is following his personal dictum, which he laid out in his 1989 book "Art of the Deal". This is not a belief or endorsement for the Trumpster, just an observation through his own words and actions. The issue is China and the overall tariffs, which were announced last week. While Mexico and China have negotiated a hold on the imposed tariffs, it was funny to see that energy had a different regime in the percent being levied. Trump’s executive order on tariffs on Chinese products is a blanket 10 percent tax on everything coming in from the country. His proposed plans for Canada and Mexico are similarly broad: everything imported into the US from these countries would get a 25 percent tax applied, except for Canadian oil, which would be pegged at 10 percent. Funny how energy products were treated differently! The expectation is a tit-for-tat retaliation from the exporting nations. The US is currently the number four exporter of Oil, the number one exporter of NG, and number four exporter of coal. While China is the number one importer of oil (US #2), Japan the number one importer of NG (US #7), and China the number one of coal (US statistically >1%). The United States is the world's second-largest producer of energy. It produces 16% of the world's energy, about three-fourths as much as China. Since 2019, the country has been a net exporter of energy. In 2023, 102.8 quads were produced and net exports were 7.6% of production. On an energy content basis, even though U.S. total energy imports increased by about 1% in 2023, U.S. total energy exports were the highest on record, at about 29.50 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), and increased by about 8% from 2022. Total energy exports exceeded total energy imports by about 7.80 quads, the largest annual margin on record. So needless to say, energy is a big business for the US. For the most current data, the US exported 26.8B dollars of energy in November of 2024. With growth averaging 1.5%/year. So, Trumps proposed tariffs would only effect the large amount of Canadian oil flowing into the US. Trumps initial tariffs show that he is separating energy from overall imported goods, because of the large energy exports the US sends abroad. Most nations understand the inflationary effect of energy on their overall economies. Energy accounts for 13% (just under 7 trillion US$) of world wide GDP. This places energy second to health care expenditures in many countries; and in some cases first. So the long winded point to this post, is that the effect of the tariffs on NG prices are a red herring. We can see from the charts above that in 2024 China's imports of LNG is the lowest it has been in six year. Mainly due to the decrease in economic output due to the slowing Chinese economy, but more likely the new NG pipeline the "Pride of Siberia", which opened up this past summer. China has in fact been reselling its NG cargo to Europe on the spot market for the majority of 2024. And id predicted to continue doing so with the remaining contracted shipment scheduled for 2025. Europe NG storage is at the lowest levels since the beginning of the Ukraine war. Although Europe is still receiving Russian NG, the shutting of the Ukraine transit deal on New Year's day, it will be interesting to see the Russian percentage of European supply when EuroStat numbers are release in March. The sanctions levied by Biden on Insurance carriers for shadow fleet carries of Russian LNG have not been repealed by Trump, which is expected to dramatically reduce supply also. With European storage at 53%, a colder European continent forecasted for the next two-three weeks, and the European mandate for storage levels to reach a predetermined level (70%) by May, this looks very healthy for the US LNG market, tariffs or no tariffs. In Trump's 1989 book, "The Art of the Deal", he has some quotes which can be seen in how he is negotiating today with other governments and their economies. (I am in no way in support or against any of these quotes, only using his own words to make a judgement on what he might possible do going forward.) Quote #1 - "I aim very high and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after. Sometimes I settle for less than I thought but I still end up with what I want." Quote # 2 - "It’s been said that I believe in the power of positive thinking. In fact, I believe in the power of negative thinking. I happen to be very conservative in business. I always go into the deal anticipating the worst. If you plan for the worst—if you can live with the worst—the good will always take care of itself." But the most poignant point in his book is about getting leverage. He states that you must provide something others want. Trump says that "if the other party realizes how badly you want something, you’re dead. The best place to negotiate is from a position of strength, and you get that with leverage. Leverage means to have something the other party wants. Or better yet, needs. Or, best of all, simply can’t do without. That’s not always the case of course, and that’s where imagination and salesmanship come in: convincing the other party it’s in his best interest to make the deal."
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
9
Nat Gas Weekly Update: 2/9/25Models have been having a hard time with the long range physics of the global atmospheric patterns. Which is great for those of us that can see past a computer! The models began to see this last weekend, and the price gapped higher 16 cent. This weekend they confirmed once again, and we opened 10 cents higher. There has been continued support around the 20D SMA and we are now looking at the 61.8% fib ($3.50) to become the new resistance level. But all these chart technical cannot stop the cold and the withdrawal of NG form storage. This weeks video touches upon storage and the importance of the storage/price relationship. Natural Gas pricing is a function of fundamentals and sentiment. I use technical levels to verify if pricing is in equilibrium with fundamentals. To make sure that sentiment does not throw the supply/demand cost structure out of balance. Too high of a price and there becomes constraints on the usage, and a replacement with cheaper, dirtier coal. If the price becomes too low, then there is a cutback in exploration, production, TIL wells (which we will talk about in the future), and a decrease in well head volume. Just like this past summer when NG reached historic lows, the cure for low price is less supply. Which is why producer restraint, low rig count and a historic number of TIL and uncompleted wells helped with over storage. The weekend models both trended 15 HDD colder, with the European still 25 HDD colder than the US model. Using the conversion of 1.6 BCF/d per 1 HDD, the US and the Euro are predicted to use more than 92.8 BCF and 128 BCF than average in the next two weeks, respectively. This would put NG storage at over 8% of the 5-year average. This is quite bullish and I expect the March contract to settle at close at or above $3.75/MMCF. It is possible for $4.00/MMCF if withdrawals hit the predicted 900 BCF for the month of February. Keep it burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025Long
by NrG_Trader
1
NATGAS Massive Long! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The market is trading on 3.072 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 3.428 Recommended Stop Loss - 2.914 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
2