JKM1! trade ideas
NG1! Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for NG1! below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 2.552.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 2.514
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Nat bullish?Here is my idea
now waiting for a bounce
these factors may help the trend and bullish reversal
War in Ukraine affecting exports.
heat wave in the United States.
entry 2.43-2.5
NG1!: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
NG1!
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long NG1!
Entry - 2.560
Sl - 2.496
Tp - 2.656
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels.
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NG1! Will Explode! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
I analysed this chart on NG1!, and concluded the following:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2.549
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 2.640
Safe Stop Loss - 2.499
About Used Indicators:
The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NG1! Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for NG1!.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 2.447.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 2.551 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Ascending Triangle (NATGAS) Bullish!The Patience of natural gas buyers is over now!
The price has now reached to Demand zone of 2.44 - 2.48 and forming
Ascending Triangle pattern.
Initial Target will be 3.00
Stops are below 2.30
Trade at your Own Risk!
NATGAS Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is going down
But a strong horizontal
Support is ahead at 2.459
From where I believe
We might see a rebound
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Natural gas Again came to support 205.
Many times comes to same level means think yourself
I not bounce than see fall.
Check the candle formation at support
After a long level 251+
How it's come down side
Trade as per your convenience
Natural gasRecent information that could affect natural gas prices include:
The ongoing war in Ukraine, which has disrupted natural gas exports from Russia to Europe.
The heat wave in the United States, which has increased demand for natural gas for air conditioning.
Entry: MKT
SL: 2.545
TP: 2.735
NatGas - No Moon Until DoomIn mid June, I had made a call that Natural Gas was about to rally, because price action and timing supported a move upwards.
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember Her
But that call became abandoned as I enlightened and improved further, and began to note that rallies were sold off and lows kept being taken.
The trade degenerated into looking at a sweep over $3 and then a sweep over $2.9, and turned into abandonment.
Before we go far, I want to tell you that you need to keep your eyes on the situation with China.
The first thing you notice is that the propaganda machine and politicians are rarely going after "the Chinese Communist Party" but are always going after "China."
This is very strange. China is the world's only 5,000 year country and holds the largest population.
If you think about it even a little bit, the CCP would be so easy to topple, wouldn't it?
Considering the Party has killed a magnitude more of its own people in its century of murder than Hitler did among all races during his years of insanity.
And the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin have the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against the Falun Dafa spiritual practice hanging over their head like the blade of a guillotine.
You have to keep this in mind and go study it. A really crucial part of the puzzle is that Xi Jinping, for all the criticism and targeting he gets/deserves, has never persecuted Falun Gong.
Instead, Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign has been killing and ruining the Jiang Faction minions who have conducted and operated the persecution.
Xi has even protected Falun Gong in Hong Kong after fortifying his rule there with the National Security Law following the 2019 Heaven Will Eliminate the CCP protests.
All of this matters very much to the fossil fuels industry because there's a relationship between China and Russia, both in terms of production and demand, that changes greatly if something like the Ukraine War ends or drama over Taiwan suddenly enters nuclear brinkmanship.
Looking at current monthly bars, Natural Gas shows some kind of "Bear Flag."
What you're seeing, really, is an extended consolidation. This is actually potentially really bullish, to the upside, but we need price action to confirm it's time to go.
Unfortunately, July did not show us this.
The sweep of the $2 point and the lows in April was not enough to springboard the move, and that's really telling.
While many may tell you that natural gas is obviously going to a zero-handle, a look at the yearly bars shows such a thesis really does not make sense.
To the contrary, the 2020 pivot should, actually, hold. A classic super long term breakout and retrace.
Moreover, $10 was printed for literally one day in 2022, and that's very strange.
The problem with the moon turning full right now, is shown on 3 month candles, where this current little red blip only has one month left.
This is not a bullish continuation. It's important, in a bullish scenario, to see volume come in and price action to correspondingly reflect that producers want to sell at higher prices and will orca the waves for us normal people.
Moreover, in terms of the overall markets, as I post in this week's SPX call, we may be watching the equities/indexes bear market rally top for real.
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
As for what might be the news driver that harbingers the correction, it may very well be one of the 10 largest banks in America dumping for whatever reason emerges (watch out for commercial real estate):
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?
I also posted last week that it seems to me oil is about to head for a literal 3-handle.
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
And because we have problems with "Taiwan," which is to say the International Rules Based Order's desire to take over China via Taiwan while the Chinese Communist Party falls, I also believe that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is set up as a probable long hedge through to the end of the year and into 2024:
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
Now, in terms of natural gas ranging like it has, sharply dumping, and then beginning a new and major bull impulse, this is not without grounds, for this would be a fractal of the 2020 COVID dump-to-recovery play that saw a doubling into year end:
If this were to play out, we'd see something like $1.60 natural gas into $4.8 by the end of the year or Q1 2024.
After that, we may really see prices that exceed $10 and begin to flirt with all time highs at $15.
The fundamental factors that would cause a 10 bagger on a commodity that literally equates to most of the world's electricity production are fairly significant.
Especially considering "climate change" (lol "climate boiling") is attempting to be used as the pretext/excuse to export the Jiang-CCP Zero COVID social credit system worldwide in a way that far exceeds what was done during the pandemic.
And so for the call, I would say the "short signal" with the markets hanging out in thin air at present, while we're about to begin a new quarterly shift, is a break of the $2.4 level.
You'd want to short that break with a target meaningfully under $1.8 and then cover it without getting greedy.
At that point, it's time to look for longs, and if you're a long term position trader, this may be one of the best opportunities you'll come across.
But it may not really unfold until next year. And this assumes that my analysis is correct.
Right now, daily price action is just showing failure swings, but nobody has stepped in yet to give it the push down the stairs it really needs.
Bobby's homework assignment8.22.23 In this video we looked at the ES which was a much simpler easier trade... I had framed it for a trade but forgot about it.... no big deal.... but we needed to take a look at it. I talked about the cattle market and I talked about the natural gas market.... very different, But they have a good chance of being good markets to follow and I explained some of the differences between those two markets. In 1955 I was 5 years old.... I was not Trading in 1955. I traded cattle in 1985 time frame give or take a year or so.
Bobby's homework assignment8.22.23 This video is not just about An oil trade follow up. It's about pattern recognition and attaching these patterns to make effective trade decisions. I think it's important that look at a clean chart with very little notation.... even if you're very familiar with that market and then go back and apply your tools. There is something that I didn't say in this video... which is my fault. I did say that the market Is likely to go lower and I kept Pointing to the support area... but I actually think the Market's going to break the support area and go to the 382 retracement that I did not draw on the chart today because I picked the clean chart. the 382 Is on yesterday's chart. However, Since I brought this up.... the price has to go below the support area. I think it's setting up for more Continuation lower and we'll just have to wait and see.
Natural gas bullish rally...Every time when it touches it make new high..let see again this time.naturalgas, NG, natural gas
Natural Gas from Pipelines to PortfoliosNatural gas was once considered a byproduct of oil production. It is now becoming increasingly important as one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels and a key piece of the clean energy transition. Today, it forms the backbone of global energy production.
This paper delves into the supply and demand factors affecting natural gas prices and proposes a long position in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) to harness gains from seasonal price trends with an entry of 2.484 with a target of 3.099 and a stop loss at 2.172 delivering risk/reward ratio of 2x.
Natural Gas Supply and Demand
Supply
Largest producers and exporters of Natural Gas are US, Russia, Iran, China, Canada, Qatar, Australia, Norway, and Saudi Arabia.
The standout in the list is Russia. Following the conflict in Ukraine, gas exports from Russia plummeted 58% in 2022. This led to price shocks in EU natural gas (TTF). US supply is unable to adequately bridge this deficit as transporting natural gas using ships requires converting it to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and using special refrigerated vessels which is not economical for large quantities of natural gas.
This is also why the spread between EU and US natural gas is much wider than EU and US oil.
Notably, US shale reserves have a high concentration of natural gas. Along with newly developed fracking techniques, this has led to increasing gas production in the US. Moreover, natural gas is also obtained in the process of oil extraction, which means gas production is linked to oil production.
This has interesting ramifications when looking at present supply. Despite low natural gas prices over the past few months, production in the US has remained high as a result of high oil production. Similarly, higher prices do not readily translate to higher production. This suggests that Natural Gas price-supply relationship is inelastic.
Demand
Demand for Natural Gas comes from:
• Energy Production – Natural Gas is used in power plants to generate electricity. Natural Gas electricity production has been rising over the last decade as it replaces Coal. Notably, manufacturers using natural gas as an energy source can switch to other energy sources during price spike, which provides some elasticity to demand.
• Commercial and Residential Heating – Natural Gas is used for heating homes in winter. This can lead to a seasonal demand during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.
• Industrial Use – Natural Gas is used as a raw material for industrial products such as plastics, ammonia, and methanol.
Natural gas demand is heavily affected by weather. Unusually warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere drive higher energy usage from air conditioners while colder winters drive higher demand for heating.
Inventories
Gas can be injected into storage facilities and stored for later use. These inventory levels play a major role in balancing supply-demand. Summer months (April-October) are referred to as injection periods while winter months (November-March) are withdrawal periods. Inventory levels help even out the surge in winter demand.
However, natural gas is much harder to store than oil as it is less dense. This means the inventory effect is not as apparent which explains the larger seasonal variation in natural gas prices as compared to oil prices.
Seasonality in Natural Gas Prices
Seasonal price action of Natural Gas shows two distinct price rallies. A large rally during winter in the US and EU driven by surge in supply for heating in winters, during this period, prices peak in early-December before declining. The other, smaller spike is during summers in the US and EU when demand for electricity rises, during this period, prices peak in early-June before declining.
Further, prices show the highest deviation from the seasonal trend in late-September.
Over the past five years, the winter rally has become wider, with prices staying elevated from August to early-December.
Additionally, seasonal trend points to a price appreciation of +11% between September and December.
However, investors should note that past seasonal trends are not representative of current or future market performance.
Henry Hub Futures
Henry Hub is the most prominent gas trading hub in the world. It is located at the intersection of major on-shore and off-shore production regions and connected by an extensive pipeline network. This is also where US natural gas exports are dispatched.
CME’s benchmark Natural Gas futures (NG) deliver to Henry Hub and is the largest gas futures contract in the world. Other notable Natural Gas futures contracts are TTF (EU) and JKM (Asia). Futures from both regions are also available for trading on CME.
Asset Managers are Bullish
Commercial traders are heavily net short on Natural Gas futures, short positioning in July was at its highest level since 2021 but has since reduced. Overall, net short commercial positioning points to bullish sentiment.
Asset managers have switched positioning in Natural Gas futures from net short to net long since May. Last week net long positioning reached its highest level since May 2022.
Options markets OI points to a neutral market view on natural gas with Put/Call ratio close to 1. Options P/C has stayed close to 1 for the past 3 months.
At the same time, Implied Volatility on Natural Gas options has been rising in August. A rally last week failed to break past a key support level but vols remain elevated suggesting that price may retest that level again.
Henry Hub Gas Dynamics with European Gas
Last week, EU Natural Gas futures (TTF1!) spiked by almost 28% due to a strike at Australia’s second largest LNG plant, still the rally soon retraced almost entirely.
LNG supply disruption, especially at the key transition to the winter season can lead to volatility spikes. Though, EU gas inventories are 90% full, supply disruptions like this can still have a major effect on gas prices but especially on volatility.
Over the past few years, higher flexibility and capacity in the global LNG supply chain has led to the various global natural gas benchmarks tracking each other more closely. This means that Henry Hub natural gas futures are exposed not just to US and Canada Natural Gas production but also to disruptions in global supply.
However, the effect is comparatively limited due to ample supply in the US. This can be seen in the price action of Henry Hub natural gas futures which rose by 6% on the same day.
Recent Trend in Natural Gas Inventories
As per the EIA, Natural Gas supply fell 0.1% WoW last week. At the same time demand rose by 0.3% WoW. Note that working natural gas in underground storage has started to flatten over the past 4 weeks, rising by just 94 billion cubic feet (BCf) compared to the 5Y average increase of 140 BCf during the same period.
Still, inventory levels are close to the top of their 5-year maximum, elevated by high US gas production during the summer driven by higher oil production. EIA forecasts that the depletion season will end with inventories 7% higher than their 5-year average.
EIA expects production to remain flat for the remainder of the year, so watching weekly consumption reports could point to early indicators of seasonal inventory depletion. However, due to elevated inventory levels, the seasonal effect may not be as strong as prior years.
In a longer-term trend, gas rigs in the US have started to decline this year after surging over the past year. This will likely lead to lower production over the next year.
Trade Setup
With options markets pointing bullish and seasonal trends suggesting price appreciation during this period, a long position in Natural Gas futures expiring in October (NGV) allows investors to benefit from an increase in Natural Gas prices.
Each contract of CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures provide exposure to 10,000 MMBtu of Natural Gas while the October contract has maintenance margin of USD 5,070 for a long position. A USD 0.001 MMBtu change in quoted price per MMBtu leads to a PnL change of USD 10 in one Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures.
Entry: 2.484
Target: 3.099
Stop Loss: 2.172
Profit at Target: USD 6,150
Loss at Stop: USD 3,120
Reward/Risk: 2x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NATGAS Bullish Rebound Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is going down
Now but it will soon hit
A support level of 2.473
From where I think the
Price will go up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
NG EXPECTED TO TOUCH 250 MARK THIS WEEKIn one hour time frame, NG is beautifully withing range of a parallel channel. If it is going to respect the lower support of channel then with a stop loss of Rs. 210 we can expect a rally upto Rs. 254/-
I also expecting its style of movement as depicted in Elliot wave drawing.
Please make sure to have a strict stop loss if you are going to trade it
✅NATGAS WILL GO UP|LONG🚀
✅NATGAS has almost reached
A strong long-term rising support
From where I will be expecting
A local bullish rebound
LONG🚀
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Natural Gas hit the support zone, getting ready to hit new high?Natural Gas has taken multiple times support near the marked trend line on chart. NG is making higher highs & higher lows on chart since Apr-2023.
Is NG getting ready for hitting new highs??? Is Natural Gas demand is likely to increase in the winter season? Please share your views. Let us work & win together.
Disclosure: I have initiated long positions in NG as risk to reward is quite favorable. I am a full time professional trader & investor and sharing my inputs only for educational purpose.
Natural gas bearish from on weekly chart frame natural gas is bearish from cmp 216 ,,,it has high chances of going from this 16 level to 175 levels in coming months
Macro Oil Blueprints: Energy Schematics forged in FibonacciThis chart consists of USOIL, Heating Oil, Gasoline, Natural Gas, Palm Oil, and Rubber futures.
Every one is tailored to a Fibonacci Layout. There are two sets of extensions. They interlap and work together. One must look for the support and resistance to verify its authenticity.
Natural Gas Buy Natural Gas will break and touch 223.8, travelling channel and inside a big channel. so buyers are ready to pull above.
Long GAS | Potential Double Bottom formation at play _target $3A famous trader called this the "Widow Maker" due to how volatile Natural gas tends to be. The weekly closed on 0% change, showing some base formation. A double bottom pattern is a classic technical analysis charting formation that represents a major change in trend and a momentum reversal from a prior down move in market trading. The 1st target is at the resistance line and offers swing traders a nice 36% before confirmation of setup.
Disclaimer| Position open
