KC, coffee futurescoffee futures, as I see in my graphic as a professional analyst the coffee market is trying to go up at this moment
KT1! trade ideas
COFFEE- BUY strategyI have not followed coffee for a while, and I think last update it looked we may see higher, but stalled and then followed by sharper fall. Not sure the connection to the current situation, and perhaps over supply may be the reasons. I am sure some of the connections can tell more.
Looking at the chart, it feel we are basing again somewhere, and we have seen these levels before. Maybe with low risk stop-loss buying strategy is in place.
Strategy suggested is BUY current $ 220-225 and place stop-loss below $ 200 and take profit around $ 243 for now.
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sell the coffeesell the coffee and cash in your profit it should go down in the logic of my technical analysis
Bullish triangle pattern - waiting to be resolvedThe bottom side of this triangle was confirmed multiple times now. Waiting for a test of the upper side and/or just a breakout.
The next target zone will be around 250-255 USX.
It's coffee time!See chart.
NOTE : The thing about charting is IT IS BASED on probability based on historical price actions and patterns. But the market is forward looking and to restrict oneself to say that if the price moves to A, then it would goes to B, then C is not only myopic but also underestimate the Market which is ever changing.
Price action could very well not touched the support line before retrace higher. Or price may not necessarily hit the 50% or 61.8% FIB level as precisely as we would like it to be. IT IS A GUIDE only.
When one trades on a larger time frame, then the short term price movements would matters less as you are concerned with the overall direction of the product you are trading.
I have find my heart beating way too fast and my emotions go haywire the time when I tried trading 15 minutes time frame or less. Sometimes, after keying in the order, I am already stopped out!! OUCH!!!
Leave this fast trading game to the experts who can make millions trading thousands of trades a day. They earn their marks through years of practice , I am sure.
Technical Outlook for the Coffee Market, backed by fundamentals.Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse through re-openings of coffee-to-go shops after Covid-19 lockdowns. The tense global logistic situation with low vessel space, exploding freight rates and shortage of containers and truckers is fuel to the already burning fire of less coffee supply than demand.
What can be examined from this is, that roasters tap into certified coffee inventories drowning them to 10-year lows, an extremely bullish factor ever since.
Technicals: Prices stay in an uptrend channel, that can be divided into a major channel and two minor ones. The structure stayed between those two lines while completing several Elliott-Waves. After a new ABC correction from the 160,00 cts high, prices could start a new 5-Wave up to test the upper line of the major channel at ~175,50 cts. The certified inventories sliding below the magical number of 1 million bags would support this move.
Certified Coffee Inventory
bilderupload.org
Chart
COFFEE-BUY strategyWe are still long since $ 243 and we are targeting $ 268 > 285 for now.
If position new, BUY current $ 253 and place stop-loss below $ 230 for now (financial stop). Profit order first $ 268.
an analyse about coffee kc in 15 min frame "sell"I think there is no volume but I think it's time to sell
Coffe seams to go up againa confirmed entry above 18 Moving average was good for a profitable trade 42% of the time since 2019
no target but usually I trail my stop at the low of prior two days...
Coffee almost at 300$ target.Any coffee aficionado out there?
Spotted at 151$ back in May 2021.
Closing in on 300$ target right now.
What inflation?
COFFEE- BUY strategyWe have clearly violated previous DC high $ 235 and COFFEE will attempt to test $ 252 again, and I think we may see $ 265-270 area in the near term.
BUYING into weakness is preferred, and I suggest we BUY $ 238-241 area preferred for a move to $ 270 profit target initially. Stop-loss should be placed $ 230 below for now.
fundamental news about coffeeHi, let's see what will happen next 9 months - i'm curious, could be a hard time for longer term inverstors again!
# La nina is coming back?
# the climatic change
# money printing
# undervalued commodity?
# best coffee crop ever 2020/21 is sold out now
# inventories declining?
# pandemic
# consumption in the coming months
# supersolarcycle
# frost and drought?
# I try to get more info from Vietnam Ethiopia and Colombia
Good time to start selling CoffeeI believe coffee still has some upside, it will probably reach $290 within a few weeks. Then the demand would start to wear off and soon it will be back to the $125 range. Coffee rarely traded above the current value, any value above $250 is short-lived. So if you are into probability, there is a very high chance coffee will start to reverse its direction. But as it's advised to never go against the trend, wait for the trend to be broken before you go into any selling positions.
Probably a good time to start selling coffee in small quantities, and increase the quantity when the coffee reaches near $300.
COFFEE- BUY strategyThe downside was maximum $ 220 and it failed to move lower.
The channel support has been working well, and now we MA-30 support $ 230. The stochastic start becoming negative, and this may push it back lower $ 228-231 range.
Startegy is BUY $ 230-234 for a move towards $ 260 for now. Stop-loss somewhere $ 218.
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COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: COFFEE WK2 chart review
::: chart is LOG SCALE
::: setup still valid expecting
::: 100% gains final TP BULLS
::: global inflation driving prices
::: also global warming heavy impact
::: cycle high for the market is near
::: 440/460 USD BULLS control the market
::: 12/24 months as global economy
::: is starting the recovery right now
::: BULLISH CYCLE is ON BUY DIPS
::: BUY/HOLD get paid / swing trade setup
::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP bulls is 460 USD
::: 100% upside from current market price
::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS)
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD
::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD
::: bullish super cycle in coffee market
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 100USD fresh demand zone
::: 460USD fresh supply zone
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE
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Coffee triggered another long tradeCOT commercial index above 43 since dec 20th but now finally a push above the 18 moving average.
trailing stop below the low of prior day...
COFFEE- SEL strategyIt is taking some time, but still feel that we should go further south.
we have regression channel support around $ 220. The S/H/S top patter seems clear, and the DMI is slowly turning to sell mode.
Strategy SELL $ 227-230 with stop-loss tight at $ 235. profit expectation is $ 187.
COFFEE - Sell strategyWe have turned negative now, and I feel stronger down trend may be coming.
We may see $ 190-195 even.
Strategy is SELL current $ 227 and place stop-loss above $ 238 and profit order at $ 195.
