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Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Sep 2028)Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Sep 2028)Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Sep 2028)

Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Sep 2028)

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MCLU2028 trade ideas

Bullish Crude Oil MoveSummary of Analysis: Current Consolidation: Crude oil is consolidating along a resistance level touched multiple times, which might strengthen the case for an eventual breakout. Entry and Target Zones: Initial Long Position: You plan to go long up to approximately $71.10, which serves as an initial target. Breakout Target Range: If momentum carries through this level with a solid breakout past the trendline, the next target would be in the $73-$76 range. Additional Points to Consider: Monitoring Volume: To confirm the breakout strength, high volume on the 4H and 1H frames as price breaches the resistance could be a reliable signal. Risk Management: Given that oil markets are known for volatility, consider setting a tight stop just below the consolidation zone in case the breakout fails. Sweep Potential: If back testing suggests this move might lead to a sweep beyond the $73-$76 range, have contingency levels in mind to lock in profits or reassess if conditions change. This setup looks poised for an interesting opportunity, especially if broader market conditions support a bullish momentum. Good Luck!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ImJustus
2
Crude Oil - High TideCrude oil is a very complicated market at this time - difficult to see through the fog. Given the second Trump presidency in January of 2025, Russian sanctions on exports and an ever complicated situation in the Middle East, the market appears virtually untouchable. So let's break it down. Given that Trump has been granted a second term as president as of the first week of November 24', this is the single most important variable - and I will elaborate why. The lines of resistance and support on this chart were drawn nearly a year ago yet remain relevant why? Because crude oil to the world, is priced in US Dollars. Any nation seeking to trade their natural resources is looking towards NYMEX, not because it is ideal but because it is LIQUID. This theme is virtually omnipresent in commodities and should be made note of. Regardless of what market a given entity is using to buy and sell commodities - particularly energy - it is priced given the current price of the most LIQUID index. So a sale of Russian oil brokered between China and India will bear some respectiveness to the NYMEX price of light crude oil, regardless of what product is being exchanged. So first, lets try and examine the logistics of UREX crude. As we can see, export of Russian crude oil has declined since it's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This would be expected, given that not only do EU sanctions against Russia specificy against its' ability to trade its' natural resource, but for international suppliers to qualify for insurance in transporting Russian product. This is an extremely difficult notion to quantify, and will only be approximated for the purposes of this essay. It is implicit given the energy security structure of the EU that Russian aggregate product (energy) will be supplied regardless of sanctions, however this agreement becomes more complicated and pricier for the EU when examined from a global perspective. According to the media, Russia controls the marginal barrel of oil globally. This comes as a multi- decennial effort by the Putin administration to isolate Russian oil markets from influence by the US Dollar - a bold effort, for better or worse, has succeeded. Meaning that theoretically Nthrough OPEC, Russia can starve its competitors of profit by keeping the price of oil low enough that only they can produce profit at the margin, even in spite of EU sanctions. An unflagged, or unregistered, fleet of commercial ships has emerged since 2022, which is extremely relevant to the proposed thesis. However given the opaque nature of this commercial fleet cannot be investigated, it will be assumed that they are enabling the commerciality of Russian crude oil globally, having secured a black market outside the realm of commercial shipping typically secured by the largest Navy globally, the USA. The US Navy has ceased to protect commercial shipping in proximity to Yemen, as rebel groups such as the Houthi continue their aggression towards Western flagged commercial vessels. However, it is unclear of the influence of "black flagged", or unregistered and uninsured vessels carrying Russian crude, among other potentially illegal product through the region. This is relevant, because as insurance rates have risen for global carriers, so too have the protests by major carriers against the sanctions placed against Russia. In a purely hypothetical landscape, carriers deemed illegitimate in the Western sphere of affairs have been able to transport product at a lower crude price, at a negotiable insurance rate previously commodified in the Western world. Commercial shipping insurers have at large protested against EU sanctions - unable to compete with the emergent black market. Now we will assume that a Trump presidency will resume the regularity of oil exports and pricing as dictated by OPEC - however there remains several months of "negotiations". We can assume Trump parties have influence over these negotiations going into the January inauguration, yet a critical gap remains. As any nation would, the Russians and Saudis despite OPEC have an opportunity to control without impunity the marginal price of oil - the price at which US producers of crude oil will produce a profit. Historically it would be in the best interest of these nations to produce oil within the aforementioned margins. However, given the global stance against fossil fuels, there is an opportunity for otherwise sanctioned nations to seize a great deal of power over their Western counterparts. Many refineries and wells in the US have been rendered dysfunctional under complex and opaque legal code instituted by the Biden administrations, and are unable to compete against their Russian counterparts altogether. In which case, before a "free-market" administration such as Trump in 2025 can stabilise crude markets globally, OPEC participants could force the price much higher. In spite of sanctions and a lack of negotiations, a elevated crude price would prove disastrous for developed nations such as Great Britain and Germany, who have no choice but to submit to Russian demands - or wait for US oversea exports, the logistics-intensive alternative. In light of rapid and progressive political change, the crude oil market is an absolute hotbox. It is difficult to prove with data and charts what an opaque and mysterious market this is, but one can only assume OPEC has all the data a future Trump administrations has - which indicated unfettered Russian control over the price of crude oil as long as the war in Ukraine continues. Whether peace can be negotiated remains a question for 2025. But for traders looking into commodities for 2025 - expect nothing less than chaos. The introduction of a black fleet complicated the role of OPEC immensely, who may seek over the next several years to integrate this emergent problem back into insurable shipping groups. Either way, EU sanctions have produced a long-term consequence to the market which should be on the radar of any savvy trader. Given the strength of the US Dollar and the consolidation trend in oil, any elevation in price will benefit Russians more than any other financial entity. It seems unlikely as of the time of writing the price will decline any further, as no party stands to gain below $70/barrel. An embargo as seen back in the 70s could push prices well over $100/ barrel, placing EU energy security in dire straits.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FPS_Denny
1
Crude Oil Buy opportunityLight Crude Oil Futures Analysis – NYMEX (CL) Crude Oil Futures (CL) are presenting a compelling buying opportunity as the price consolidates within a symmetrical triangle, suggesting an imminent breakout. This technical setup often leads to significant upward momentum when the price breaks through the upper resistance. With the current support around $66.18 holding strong, there is a favorable risk-reward ratio for traders looking to enter a bullish position. Technical Indicators Signal Potential Upside: Support Zone: The lower boundary at $66.18 has consistently provided a solid foundation, indicating strong buying interest at this level. Bullish Momentum: A breakout above the $71.30 resistance could confirm a bullish reversal, with targets around $74-$75 in the near term. This setup offers an attractive buying opportunity with minimal downside risk, especially if CL can break through key resistance levels. Given current market dynamics and technical indicators, a bullish outlook appears favorable for the upcoming sessions. Light Crude Oil Futures, NYMEX, bullish setup, buying opportunity, support, resistance, breakout, technical analysis, price action. #CrudeOil #Bullish #BuyOpportunity #OilFutures #TechnicalAnalysis
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Charts_M7M
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Neutral until bulls do more. 66.72 is still the low to be broken if bears want more downside, otherwise it’s a descending triangle with clear support around 67. It does look like bulls need an event to help them. Every small rip is sold and it’s a matter of time until one side gives up and we see another breakout. Last thing I want to be is bullish on this but until we have a daily close below 67, it’s huge support. Quote from last week: comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls. comment: Huge support around 67 and bears need a daily close below for lower prices. Bulls a daily close above 69 for 70 and potentially 70.4. No more magic to it and I won’t make stuff up for the fun of it. Market has no direction for weeks and the range is tighter than my food exit. As long as market does not drop below 66.72, bulls are ok but it’s really tough to make money as a bull in this. If bears break that price, we go 65 next, followed by 63.5. current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle) key levels: 67 - 71 bull case: At this point I am too lazy to come up with something for either side. I follow the range and past pattern. Last week was bearish and support held. Next week I expect trading above 69-71. I stop being lazy once the given range breaks. Maybe long range missiles onto Russian Oil depots will help this break out. Invalidation is below 66.7. bear case: Either break below 66.7 or give up again. Below 66.7 we see 65.74 and then 65 next. Invalidation is above 69. outlook last week: short term : Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks. → Last Sunday we traded 70.38 and now we are at 67.02. Bad outlook but will probably touch 70 tomorrow or Tuesday again. Probably was just off due to Sunday-Sunday. short term: Neutral. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing worth mentioning.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
CL Daily time frame on support: +799 Ticks The CL Daily time frame has entered into a side ways range. The market is near the bottom of the range and is showing signs of pushing bullish towards the top of the range price point 77.00 about +799 ticks above the market. As long as the market stays above the daily support level price point 66.75. It will be a good idea to look for long ideas towards 77.00 If the market breaks below the daily support of 66.75 and the daily time frame can close below 62.60. The will show a potential bear breakout and the market may go deeper before it pushes towards the daily target of 77.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
1st wave upwards?Analyzing the NYMEX:CL1! (Crude Oil Futures) chart, the current level may serve as a potential reversal point due to several factors: Higher High Formation: On November 7th, the price established a higher high. If the current candle forms a higher low, it could signal the continuation of an upward trend. Bullish SMA Crossover: A few days ago, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed above the 50-day SMA, indicating a bullish momentum shift. Seasonality and Macroeconomic Factors: Historically, crude oil exhibits bullish seasonality starting in the second half of December. Additionally, global instability and the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts may contribute to higher commodity prices. These elements suggest a favorable outlook for crude oil prices in the near term.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by p4917
Bearish signals piling up for crude oil pricesA lack of direct stimulus measures in China likely contributed to the rough end for crude oil last week, with prices not only breaking minor uptrend support but also closing below the 50-day moving average. It’s the latter that’s got me eyeing a potential short setup. The ratio of how often the price has traded through this level versus how often the break has stuck is notable over recent months. The uptrend in RSI (14) has been trashed, and MACD is on the verge of confirming a bearish signal, skewing risks lower. However, I’d like to see a break and hold below $69.74 first, the low hit on US election night. The price bounced strongly from there, so it looms as potentially key level for near-term directional risks. If that level breaks, shorts could be initiated with a stop above either the low or the 50-day moving average. Targets include $66.72 (October 29 low), with $66.33 and $65.27 next. If the price reverses above the 50-day moving average and closes there, the bearish bias is negated, opening up potential bullish setups. Good luck! DS
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FOREXcom
The current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slightThe current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slightly bullish due to the following factors: Inventory Trends: While there was a smaller-than-expected build in crude oil inventories (+500,000 barrels), it contrasts with larger builds from previous weeks. Additionally, gasoline inventories rose, but middle distillate inventories only slightly declined, signaling some supply-demand balancing. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine add a potential "war premium" to prices, but the market reaction has been muted compared to previous years, suggesting limited immediate impact. Chinese Demand: Signs of improving demand from China—a major oil consumer—provide support for a bullish sentiment as global demand stabilizes. IEA Forecast: The International Energy Agency now suggests tighter-than-expected supply, revising its Q4 inventory decline estimate from 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to over 1.1 million bpd. This implies a more constrained market moving forward. However, bearish risks stem from: Perceptions of a generally well-supplied market, potentially capping upside momentum. Reduced war-related price shocks compared to prior years. Conclusion for Traders: Crude oil shows bullish potential, especially if demand signals from China strengthen or inventory draws accelerate. Short-term volatility remains, but opportunities might exist for buying dips rather than shorting, particularly as geopolitical risks and seasonal demand factors play out. ILL CONSIDER SCALING IN EVEN MORE AT EACH GREEN LINE. COT report suggests some bullish momentum for this week
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by OssianH
2
Crude oil signs of basing emergeWTI Crude Oil closed higher overnight at $69.17 (3.21%) on news that production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield had been halted due to a power outage. An escalation in European Geopolitical tensions also supported the rally after the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia. A bullish engulfing candle has formed overnight from just ahead of key support $66.00/$65.00 area, which suggests further upside towards $71.50/72.50 is likely in the sessions ahead.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IG_com