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MCL1! trade ideas

Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE: Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%. Inventories Remain at Average Levels So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption. Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut. The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices. Higher Prices Expected? That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by CME_Group
2
We goin LONG THIS WEEK ON Crude OIL from HTF Discounted DemandNYMEX:CL1! "Excellence is not a singular act but a habit. You are what you do repeatedly." -Shaquille O'Neal Last week Sellers were successful in pushing the price per barrel of OIL underneath Major Key Level ($80.00)... Now the reason I believe we are preparing for OIL to go LONG is due to price nearing a Major Unmitigated Daily Demand Zone and approaching a HTF eR/LQ Trendline.... I want to see price mitigate this Daily Demand zone then i'll drop down to the LTF for a confirmation entry model to scale LONG.... Discounted Demand Pricing I want to see mitigated before we enter LONG on a LTF entry model ($77.75 to $77.00)... I will keep update as price develops!! Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
9th May 2024 CL1 Trading PlanNYMEX:CL1! continues to look bullish today. There might be a small pull back before the price resumes it journey towards 80. The plan is to wait for price action to confirm the direction clearly and look for buying opportunities around 78.70 area. Alternatively if there is no pullback in the morning session, wait for the price to break R1 or the 200 MA before buying. Disclaimer: This analysis is part of my personal trading journal. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to trade any specific strategy.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by MChaotic
OIl setting up for a bounce here, trade or continuation?We've been out of the #Oil trade for some time now. It since went about 10% higher, no big deal. Daily analysis: Broke its recent uptrend. RSI oversold - Usually gets a bounce at these levels. It has been trading in between mid 60's & Low 90's. Intraday looks like it is setting up for a bounce. -------------------------------- Weekly Analysis: You'd figure with tension rising that #OIL would be at a 100, at least. Daily it broke the trend but it's best to wait until Friday to see if it's going back to the lower part of the trend or bouncing. Historically, RSI doesn't hang around the 50 area much, shown by the yellow arrow.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
The Bears are in Control of CrudeTechnical Momentum Weakens Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 200-day moving average at $77.88. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.70 daily. API Inventories Rise API Inventory tightness has reversed recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a build of 509,000 barrels. The current EIA inventories are 460 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 473 million barrels for this period. Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 33 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 44 million barrels. An Expanding Economic Tailwind The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Phil_Blue_Line
Crude Oil | BULLS MAY DOMINATE THE NEXT DAYSMay is not always a good month for crude oil. When you look at the last 40 years, there is a positive change rate of less than 50%. However, Crude oil is moving to the support resistance point, and its performance in the last 8 election years, from the beginning of the may to the 21-22 of May during the election years, is 7 years positive and an average return of 12%. That's why I'm very BULLISH on Crude oil, which is below last year's opening level and at a significant support-resistance flip point.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by XU3Trades
Crude Oil Testing Line in the SandCrude Oil (June) Last week’s close: Settled 78.11, down 0.84 on Friday and 5.74 on the week WTI Crude Oil futures have trended with a lower high for five straight sessions and while trading below first key resistance at 79.49-79.63, it is gearing for the sixth straight session since the April 26th peak. Price action has now tested major three-star support at 78.01-78.43, aligning multiple technical indicators with the upper-end of the consolidation into mid-March. While we now hold a Neutral Bias, there is value seen here, but the market lacks positive momentum. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 79.49-79.63**, 79.87-79.90**, 80.31-80.44***, 81.24***, 81.57**, 81.80-81.93*** Pivot: 78.75-78.83 Support: 78.01-78.43***, 76.90-76.98*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CLM2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Unraveling the Descent of CL1! (Crude Oil Futures)Introduction: CL1! (Crude Oil Futures) has experienced a pronounced downturn lately, prompting traders to investigate the underlying factors driving this descent. In this analysis, we'll explore various elements contributing to CL1!'s downward trajectory. Technical Analysis: Breakdown of Key Support Levels: CL1! has breached significant support levels on the price chart, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards bearishness. This breach indicates increased selling pressure and suggests potential further downside movement. Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a bearish crossover pattern known as the "death cross." This technical signal often indicates a sustained downtrend, with short-term momentum weakening relative to longer-term trends. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator is signaling oversold conditions, hinting at a potential reversal or temporary bounce. However, traders should exercise caution as oversold conditions can persist in strong downtrends, and the RSI alone may not signal a reversal. Fundamental Analysis: Demand-Supply Dynamics: Concerns about oversupply and weakening demand can weigh on crude oil prices. Factors such as increased production levels from major oil-producing countries, geopolitical tensions easing, or shifts in global energy consumption patterns may contribute to oversupply concerns and downward pressure on prices. Global Economic Outlook: A deteriorating global economic outlook can dampen demand for crude oil. Economic indicators such as slowing GDP growth, rising unemployment, or weakening consumer confidence can signal reduced demand for oil and its derivatives, impacting prices negatively. OPEC+ Decision-Making: Decisions made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) regarding production levels and output quotas can significantly influence crude oil prices. Any indications of increased production or disagreements within the alliance may lead to downward pressure on prices. Conclusion: In conclusion, multiple factors, both technical and fundamental, are contributing to the decline in CL1! (Crude Oil Futures). Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly, considering short-term trading opportunities and long-term investment perspectives. Additionally, managing risk is crucial in navigating volatile market conditions and minimizing potential losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FAICAL_GOUNAINE