CRUDE**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to rise to the top of the funnel and then fall back down again.
MCL1! trade ideas
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74.
Quote from last week:
comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 70-80
bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much.
Invalidation is below 75.
bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77.
Invalidation is above 75.1.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do.
→ Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some.
short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
Crude Oil 26 to 30 AUG 2024With double bottom formation and confirmation on the pattern. We can expect a positive bias. Once the resistance of 6662 is broken can expect a moment upto 6900 levels.
Support at 6150 and resistance at 6400 & 6662 levels.
CRUDE OIL MCXCrude oil Big movement coming in September month
can long 17 September CE and PE total cost 349 per lot one side call or put will hit 500 for sure and other side decay will not be so much as whole month is pending so good return of 20 to 40% expected
CL Long on Demand increaseLong CL retracement trade.
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VP Range Principle - Long CLI have a opportunity to buy a CL. The price may run until higher price in the range consolidation
CRUDEOIL - BREAKOUT OR NOT?Crude Oil Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)
Current Pattern: Crude oil is trading within a falling wedge channel, indicating potential for a breakout.
Breakout Levels to Watch:
Key Resistance: A break above 6185 is crucial for confirming the breakout from the wedge pattern.
Sustained Move: If crude oil can hold above 6240, it would signal strength and a higher likelihood of a bullish move.
Target: A successful breakout and sustained levels above 6240 could lead to a rally towards the identified demand zone, presenting a potential upside opportunity.
Technical Indicators: Monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the breakout strength.
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[Intra day] CL Bullish on Daily- CL Just taken out External Range Liquidty
- ERL -> IRL . I expect price to Target next the Internal Range Liquidty, to continue lower.
20240822 CLV20241) Did I follow my plan?
A) Entry
B) Exit
2) What mistakes did I make?
3) What could I have done better?
4) What rules will help me with the above?
CRUDEOIL MCX - Triple BottomCrudeoil is making triple bottom condition for time period April 2024 to August 2024.
Resistance - 6280,6400,6600
Support -6000
This chart is only for educational purpose. Do your own study before taking any trades.
TI-BRNeutral/Slight long Reg
LONG TI SHORT BRENT
TI WILL GO UP BRENT DOWN TO NARROW THE SPREAD
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CRUDE Oil level mark Hello,
crude oil level mark, wait for break out. red line mark as support & green line mark as resistance. wait for break out.
Have you ever traded the news?This is a great way to see how your instrument reacts to a news release.
Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again.
WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again.
I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year.
DS
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bear channel continued down and next target is probably 72 if 73.5 won’t hold. Pure weakness in this market.
quote from my weekly update:
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 74.5 to trade back down to 71/72.
comment: Look at that beauty of a channel. Holding like a true champ. Market is much weaker than expected and only going down. Bottom of the channel is where a pullback is expected and if bears are strong, they keep it below 74.5. Next targets for the bears are 73 and then 72. Anything above 75.5 would be a big surprise.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 72 - 75.5
bull case: Bulls are so weak that they currently can only correct sideways. They need to create a pullback at 73.4 or risk a breakout below the bear channel, where the selling would accelerate. A reasonable target for a pullback would be the breakout retest of last weeks low 74.52.
Invalidation is below 73.1.
bear case: Bears had a strong bear day again and a measured move would bring us to 71.5. If they manage to create a breakout below the bear channel, we could get there much faster than most expect. My drawn big bullish trend line from the triangle runs through 71.7, so close enough. Bears need to keep any pullback below 75, better would be below 74.5.
Invalidation is above 75.5.
short term: Pullback to at least 74.5 is expected but below 73.1 we print 72 or even 71 pretty fast.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Mostly sideways during Globex and EU session. US session opened weak and when bulls could not get above 75.5 again, bears tried again and bulls just gave up. Had to be short since the bear bar breaking below 75 and the 1h 20ema.
Oil Price Eyes Test of Monthly LowThe price of oil may attempt to test the monthly low ($71.67) as it extends the decline from the previous week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Failure to hold above the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region raises the scope for a move towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) with a breach below the January low ($69.28) opening up the December low ($67.71).
At the same time, crude may trade within in yearly range should it defend the February low ($71.41) with a move back above $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) area on the radar.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Crudeoil Weekly Update Technical Analysis: Crude Oil (1 - DAY Timeframe)
In the 1-day timeframe, we're currently observing a developing cup and handle pattern.
Should the price sustain below the demand zone, the probability of further downside increases, signaling potential bearish momentum?
Conversely, if a reversal occurs, there is a strong likelihood of a significant upside movement, with a possible 400+ point advance.
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Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on current data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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8.18.2024 Weekend Pre-Market Analysis OilRight now we have a BEARISH BIAS on Oil as it has been making lower LOWS/HIGHS on the 4 hour timeframe.
OIL Going For 90 $Oil is in Support Area (74$)
i think We have a little accumulation here anad AFter that It can Go upper
it target is 90$ Base On Daily Time Frame
Time range ( between 1-3 Month)
Crude oil can hit 9000 mark again in coming 3-4 monthThe recent assassination of a Hamas leader by Israel and Iran's promise of retaliation could escalate tensions into a broader conflict in the Middle East. This situation raises concerns that Iran might block the strategic Strait of Hormuz , a critical chokepoint for global oil trade . Additionally, there are speculations that Iran could test a nuclear device in the coming months, potentially declaring itself a nuclear state. Russia's continuous supply of S-300 and S-400 missile systems to Iran further suggests that something significant may be in the works. These developments could have profound implications for oil markets and global stability.
OIL (WTI) SHORTThe price action formed an inverted cup and handle pattern, were price is currently in a parallel channel that acts as the handle. A breakout under the lower support will lead to the $71.90 area support, then another breakout of that support will lead to the $70.89 or so area.
The price is also in a current death cross, the 8 daily EMA under the 21 daily EMA.
A breakout over the orange ray would invalidate this idea.
Oil slips again and Geopolitical tensions rise In my last post about Oil, I said that "Oil has a good possibility to get back to the range of 83.50 and 84.50", but also "Oil had broken 3 LH's that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024". I also mentioned that "we can see a pullback in the ranges of 78.84 and 77.12". In my outlook at the top of the week, I said that I was on the buyer's side until price showed otherwise. Now, price is showing signs of not continuing buys but settling into seller's territory.
In this latest out look, I'm going to give you my insight on where the market can possibly go going into next week. Around early 6AM, price broke the HL from last Friday that shot Oil up all the way to the 77.89 area on this past Monday. On Tuesday, price created the "M" formation signaling that sellers were now starting to step in that sent the market selling for the rest of the week. On today Friday, August 16th, Price hit a demand area that sent price shooting past the HL that i stated early in my typing. This could potentially mean that we are now in seller's territory for a minute depending on how the markets may move going into next week. We did leave a gap above after yesterday's sell movement that can send price back that way from Monday going into Tuesday depending on market conditions. I believe if price goes back that way it can be just to create a LH, IF price doesn't make buying structure. Right now my current outlook is bias until the market finds its footing from Monday-Tuesday.
Amid Oil selling from the technical side, Oil is facing rocky streets from fear of the United States economy as investors are getting ready to brace for interest rate cuts and other things going on in different countries. From Fed Powell, to Iran retaliation, and to China's weak economy, Oil is in some unpredictable territory especially with a lot of geopolitical tensions rising. Next week news combined with technicals will give a greater outlook on Oil.
