NATGAS BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅NATGAS is trading in an
Uptrend and we are seeing
A bullish breakout which
Makes us bullish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further move up
LONG🚀
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NGK2016 trade ideas
Natural Gas Sell orderIf Trump is installed at the white house then the war between Ukraine and Russia will come to an end.
Also the European parties will realiza that the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.
Peace and a good cooperation with Russia will be the key for a wealthy economy, because these days people are with the back against the wall with this insane prices of everything.
When this day of peace comes we should expect lower gas prices. Lets hope for the best.
NATGAS: Bears Will Push
Balance of buyers and sellers on the NATGAS pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
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NatGAS is heating upA close above the white Center-Line projects higher prices to come.
There are 2 scenarios I see:
1. pull-back to the white CL, then up.
2. cross above the petrol CL, further and fast continuation to the north.
...oh, there's 3rd scenario:
3. price is getting punched back below the white Center-Line again. If that comes true, price has another chance to go south, with a target at the 1/4 line, or even way down to the L-MLH.
NATGAS Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level -2.837
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 2.760
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NG1! SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the NG1! pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 2.135 level.
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US Nat-Gas Poised to Rally on Rising Demand for HeatingTightening supplies, fluctuating inventories, and volatile geopolitics present intriguing risk management and trading possibilities in US Liquified Natural Gas ("US LNG") markets.
Colder weather forecasts, robust LNG exports, and Europe's increasing dependence on US LNG continues to reshape global energy trade.
US LNG PRICES REBOUND IN NOVEMBER ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
Henry Hub Natural Gas prices are up 9.2% month-to-date supported by lower output, colder weather forecasts, higher European gas prices (Dutch TTF), and increased feed gas to US LNG facilities.
A supply disruption stemming from Hurricane Rafael halted 16% of US LNG production in the Gulf of Mexico. However, production quickly recovered with the hurricane dissipating.
Weather forecasts have fluctuated, creating demand uncertainty. While warmer-than-expected November forecasts briefly pulled prices back, they failed to reverse the overall uptrend.
European gas prices are spiking driven by colder weather forecasts, reduced wind power generation, & lower Norwegian gas supplies. Since the start of this month, TTF has climbed 15.5% reaching its highest level since November last year. The increase in Dutch TTF prices added upward pressure.
Colder European forecasts have redirected LNG shipments to the region. US LNG export activity also surged, with daily feed gas flows to export plants hitting a 10-month high on 15/Nov.
Exports to seven major LNG facilities averaged 13.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October, reflecting strong international demand.
Meanwhile, natural gas production in the Lower 48 states fell to 100.3 bcfd in November from 101.3 bcfd in October, further tightening supply.
Source: EIA
Over the past four weeks, storage injections exceeded the five-year average, reversing a 14-week streak (12/Jul-11/Oct) of below-average builds.
While inventories may rise briefly, the first withdrawals of the winter season are approaching. Initial draws might be modest, but demand is expected to strengthen as winter progresses.
US LNG EXPORTS SURGE AS EUROPE SCRAMBLES TO REPLACE RUSSIAN IMPORTS
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU has sought alternative energy suppliers, relying heavily on the US, which accounted for 48% of EU LNG imports in H1 2024 (versus Russia's 16%). The US became the largest LNG exporter globally in 2023.
From 2018 through 2021, US LNG exports to Europe averaged around 15 million tons a year. In 2022 and 2023, they jumped to 55 million tons a year as European power generators scrambled to replace Russian gas by whatever means necessary.
Source: EIA
This trend is expected to continue as EIA expects US LNG export capacity to grow by 9.7 bcfd, to touch 24.4 bcfd by 2028.
In its latest short-term energy outlook , the EIA expects US LNG exports to grow by 1.7% YoY in 2024 and 14% YoY in 2025.
Source: EIA
So far in 2024, between Jan-Aug, US exports rose by 1.4% YoY.
A surge in natural gas exports to Europe, combined with the massive power demand from new AI data centers, could lead US LNG prices to rise. The EIA expects average Henry Hub prices to rise 33.6% to USD 2.9/MMBtu in 2025.
TRUMP’S RETURN TO PRESIDENCY PRESENTS A MIXED BAG FOR THE US LNG MARKET
Trump's re-election presents mixed implications for the US LNG market. While his policies could support the buildup of gas & LNG infrastructure, they might also curtail LNG exports to China.
Under President Biden, the US paused permits for new LNG projects (earlier this January) to assess environmental & economic impact. This raised concerns over a slowdown in US LNG exports. However, the Trump administration is expected to expedite LNG permits with fewer environmental restrictions.
Source: EIA
Trump’s policies could also revive protectionist measures, potentially intensify trade tensions with China. If Trump implements higher tariffs on Chinese goods, retaliatory tariffs on US LNG could follow, as seen during his first term in 2018-19. Since then, US LNG deliveries to China have plummeted since its high in 2021.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures are poised to rise amid growing heating demand into winter season and Europe's continued reliance on US LNG.
The options skew for Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures reached 30.69 on 18/Nov, up significantly from 6.66 on 03/Sep. This sharp rise signals growing bullish expectations, with calls becoming increasingly expensive relative to puts.
Source: CME Group
US Nat Gas January Futures Contract trades at USD 3.182/MMBtu which is 21.6% below the five-year average.
Amid the fundamental forces at play, this paper posits a hypothetical trade setup of long CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas January Futures Contract (expiring on 26/Dec) at USD 3.150/MMBtu with a stop at USD 2.840/MMBtu and target at USD 3.60/MMBtu resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.45x. Each Micro Henry Hub Nature Gas Futures contract has 1,000 MMBtu
Over the past five years, Henry Hub prices typically declined from mid-November to year-end. The rapid surge in US LNG exports to Europe, now nearly half of the continent’s imports, is expected to offset any moderation in US heating demand.
Standard Henry Hub Futures can be used in the same way as the Micro Henry Hub Futures to express a bullish outlook on the US LNG market.
Unlike the standard CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures contract, the micro contract requires a margin of USD 258/lot as of 19th November 2024.
• Entry: USD 3.150/MMBtu
• Target: USD 3.600/MMBtu
• Stop-Loss: USD 2.840/MMBtu
• Profit at Target: USD 450/lot
• Loss at Stop: USD 310/lot
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.45x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Triangle in gasI think there will be a way out of the triangle downwards. however, we look beyond the upper and lower borders of the triangle.
Natural Gas still coiling! breakdown or breakout? Hello Traders
In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today NATGAS analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Natural GasNatural Gas
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Fibonacci Level - 261.80%
RSI - Divergence
Double Top as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Rejection from Point of Interest
NATGAS Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on NATGAS and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 2.665 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 2.739
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gas to the bottomI think that in the short term many commodities will fall. Also, there is a triangle in gas.
Natural Gas Oil, Dollar, Silver, Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas stock Bulls
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NATGAS: Bullish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy NATGAS.
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NATGAS Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for NATGAS is below:
The market is trading on 3.122 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 2.910
Recommended Stop Loss - 3.241
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NG1! WEEK OF 11/18/24NG1! WEEK OF 11/18/24
To maintain simplicity, once the price moves beyond the WHITE range, monitor for a potential retest of the breached level.
Be prepared to initiate long or short positions targeting the YELLOW ranges.While prices may surpass the YELLOW range targets, these levels provide a robust framework for securing profits. 🎯🫡
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NATGAS Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is about to retest
A horizontal resistance
Of 3.024$ from where
We will be expecting
A local bearish correction
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
NG Short 11/7/2024NG is in a downtrend in daily and 4hr chart. Macro match. Price is going sideways making HLs and LHs. Placed a short position in HV SZ above MA. Taking half risk because zone has been tested. Risk= $120. Target= Opposing HV DZ.
Natural gas short term long thesis Natural Gas has rotated back to the multi day support after rejecting off the previous day's POC on the TPO chart. It has then bounced off the support with great volume, providing confirmation.
There is a long oppurtunity here @225.7 with a strict stop loss at @223.2 and a target of 231.7.
Trail stop losses as it moves in your favour and take profits accordingly.
Cheers.
NG Short 11/6/2024NG is in a downtrend in daily and 4hr chart. Macro match. Price made LH DT. Placed a short position in HV SZ. Taking half risk because the zone is retest of above zone. Risk= $125. Target= opposing HV DZ.
NG Short 11/6/2024NG is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placing a short position in 1hr HV SZ above MA. Risk= $250. Target= 1.1:1.
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Ready to Strangle a BreakoutIntroduction: Why Natural Gas is Poised for Volatility
Natural Gas markets are showing signs of a potential volatility surge as recent data from the United States Natural Gas Stocks Change (USNGSC) displays a rare narrowing of the 21-day Bollinger Bands®. This technical setup often precedes sharp market moves, suggesting an upcoming breakout.
Given the importance of fundamental shifts in natural gas inventory data, any unexpected change in USNGSC could significantly impact Natural Gas Futures (NG1!), leading to price movements in either direction. This Options Blueprint Series explores a strategy to capitalize on this anticipated volatility: the Long Strangle Strategy. By setting up positions that profit from sharp directional moves, traders may capture gains regardless of the direction in which the price moves.
Understanding the Long Strangle Strategy
A Long Strangle involves purchasing a call option at a higher strike price and a put option at a lower strike price. This setup allows traders to profit from significant price movements in either direction.
The chosen strategy for this analysis includes:
Expiration: February 25, 2025
Strikes: 2.5 put at 0.28 and 2.7 call at 0.29
This setup is ideal for capturing potential breakouts, with limited risk equal to the total premium paid. Unlike directional trades, a Long Strangle does not require forecasting the direction of the move, only that a substantial price change occurs before expiration.
Technical Analysis with Bollinger Bands®
The 21-day Bollinger Bands® applied to USNGSC have narrowed significantly, often an indicator that the market is building up pressure for a breakout. Historically, this type of setup in fundamental data can drive volatility in Natural Gas Futures.
When the Bollinger Bands® width narrows, it indicates reduced variability and increased potential for data changes, awaiting release. Once volatility resumes, a dramatic shift can occur. This technical insight provides a solid foundation for the Long Strangle Strategy, aligning the timing of options with the potential for amplified price movement in Natural Gas.
Contract Specifications for Natural Gas Futures
To effectively plan and manage risk in this trade, it’s crucial to understand the contract details and margin requirements for Natural Gas Futures (NG).
o Standard Natural Gas Futures Contract (NG):
Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $10 per tick.
o Micro Natural Gas Futures Contract (optional alternative for smaller exposure):
Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $1.00 per tick.
Margin Requirements
The current margin requirement for a single NG futures contract generally falls around $2,500 but may vary with market conditions. $250 per contract for Micro Natural Gas Futures.
Trade Plan for the Long Strangle
The Long Strangle strategy on Natural Gas involves buying both a put and a call option to capture significant price movements in either direction. Here’s how the trade is set up:
o Expiration: February 25, 2025
o Strikes:
Long 2.5 Put at 0.28 ($2,800)
Long 2.7 Call at 0.29 ($2,900)
o Cost Basis: The total premium paid for the strangle is 0.57 (0.28 + 0.29) = $5,700 per strangle position.
Profit Potential
Profits increase as Natural Gas moves sharply above the 2.7 call strike or below the 2.5 put strike, accounting for the 0.57 premium paid.
With substantial price movement, gains on one option can offset the total premium and yield significant returns.
Risk
Maximum risk is confined to the total premium paid ($5,700), making this a capped-risk trade.
Reward-to-Risk Analysis
Reward potential is substantial to the upside and downside, limited only by the extent of the price move, while risk is capped at the initial premium cost.
Risk Management and Trade Monitoring
Effective risk management is key to successfully executing a Long Strangle strategy, particularly when anticipating heightened volatility in Natural Gas. Here are the critical aspects of managing this trade:
Defined Risk with Prepaid Premiums: The maximum risk is predetermined and limited to the initial premium paid, which helps manage potential losses in volatile markets.
Importance of Position Sizing: Sizing positions appropriately can help balance exposure across a portfolio and reduce excessive risk concentration in a single asset. Using Micro Natural Futures would help to reduce size and risk by a factor of 10 (from $5,700 down to $570 per strangle).
Optional Stop-Loss: As the risk is confined to the premium, no stop-loss orders are required.
Exit Strategies
For a Long Strangle to yield substantial returns, timing the exit is crucial. Here are potential exit scenarios for this strategy:
Profit-Taking Before Expiration: If Natural Gas experiences a significant price swing before the February expiration, consider taking profits which would further reduce the exposure to premium decay.
Holding to Expiration: Alternatively, traders can hold both options to expiration if they anticipate further volatility or an extended price trend.
Continuous Monitoring: The effectiveness of this strategy is closely tied to the persistence of volatility in Natural Gas. Keep an eye on Fundamental Updates in USNGSC as any unexpected changes in natural gas stocks data can lead to sharp price adjustments, increasing the potential for profitability.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
