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NG1! trade ideas

Natural Gas: Has it Found a Bottom?Natural gas made a stunning rally to an all-time high, only to come crashing back down again. It's been a while since we last covered natural gas, so let's take a look at what's happened since then. The previous technical & seasonality setup played out perfectly with the RSI bouncing off the low and the rally into the winter season, hitting our profit target and extending further. This time, we're seeing a similar setup on a different timescale. Zooming out, natural gas has retraced the entire move it made in the past three years and is now back to pre-COVID levels. The question is, has natural gas found a bottom here? Looking at the weekly chart for natural gas over the past 20 years, we see an interesting picture. The weekly RSI has only broken past the 30 level five times over this two-decade period, and each time marked the rough bottom for natural gas. Fortunately, we're seeing this exact setup now, with prices seeming to find resistance at the $2 handle, which has also proven to be a reliable resistance level. Comparing the Henry Hub natural gas against the Dutch TTF natural gas, we can see the spread back to the lows when adjusting for the same unit measurement of MMBtu and in USD. On the fundamental side, this excerpt from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) sums up the outlook for Natural Gas vs Coal: “Natural gas-fired generation capacity in the United States has grown in recent years, although coal-fired generation has continued to decline. Lower coal-fired generation is due to a long-term trend of coal power plant retirements and increased competition with natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants when natural gas prices are low. A total of 11.5 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. coal-fired electricity generating capacity retired in 2022. No new coal-fired capacity has come online since 2013, and developers have not reported any plans to build new U.S. coal-fired capacity in the future. In contrast, nearly 6.1 GW of natural gas-fired capacity was added in 2022, according to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.” Natural Gas saw a record high for the winter heating season. Additionally, close to 23% of US coal plants have plans to retire by 2029, and the last new coal plant that came online in the US was in 2013, 10 years ago. With coal plants being the second-largest source of electricity in the US and supply being cut, energy has to come from somewhere else. While the push for renewable energy continues, natural gas remains the main source of energy production. The dissipation of supply from retiring coal plants will likely be filled by natural gas. The reason being? Natural Gas currently remains most reliable form of energy source, while nuclear faces political pushbacks and Wind, Hydro & Solar have unpredictable/intermittent generation capacity. Lastly, the Dollar sits on a key level now. If broken, the weakening dollar could drive commodities prices higher en masse. All in all, the case to long natural gas from here seems reasonable, with the fundamental outlook for Natural gas still positive and the technical set-up pointing to a low. Taking a long position at the current levels of 2.186 and setting our stops at 1.85 and our first take profit level at 3.1 gives us a reasonable halfway point while setting our next take profit level at 3.8 gives us a higher profit potential if prices continue to rise. CME’s Henry Hub Natural gas is quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per MMBtu. Each 0.001 increment equal to 10$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.eia.gov www.eia.gov blogs.worldbank.org
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by inspirante
4
Natgas: More pressure! 💪You know this one? Pascal: “Hurry up! Get a move on! We really need to get going!” - “Whoa, that’s a lot of pressure for just one Pascal…!” Okay okay, bad jokes aside, Natgas does need a bit more pressure to rise from the compound consisting of the white zone between $1.880 and $3.436, the blue zone between $2.407 and $3.277 and the pink zone between $2.573 and $3.439. Above this conglomerate, it should finish wave iv in pink before turning downwards to develop wave 2 in green, which should then lead below the bottom of the white zone. Once this prominent low is established, Natgas should take off again. However, there is a 40% chance that Natgas could leave the white zone on the southern side, thus expanding wave alt.2 in green earlier already.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
NG1! Is Very Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for NG1!. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2.113. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2.286. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by SignalProvider
9
NG1! Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers , I analysed this chart on NG1!, and concluded the following: The instrument tests an important psychological level 2.160 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Goal - 2.287 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
7
Natural GAS : LONGNatural gas bounced from a low of $1.95/MMBTU, where almost all producers lose money. Since natural gas and crude oil are near or below breakeven levels, producers are reducing their drilling rate - likely lowering production levels given the lack of capacity. The negative shift in weather, falling rig count, and potential export boost from Freeport may push natural gas back into a shortage over the coming months. While natural gas spot prices appear likely bottoming, UNG's immense "contango" pressure remains a key investment rig factor. Source : Seeking Alpha
RUS:NG1!Long
by SWFguy
Bobby's Homework Assignment Part 14.30.23 I'm going to make two or three videos this weekend in an effort to clear up Misunderstandings and misconceptions about how the market should be traded. Generally speaking... for myself... I picked the markets that have features that I understand... that allow me to use the tools that I need to make a trade decision. In reality if I were not posting charts I would have three possibly four markets that I would be looking at but a routine basis... and I would probably be trading one market at a time, And possibly two at most.... and I would have a specific reason for trading that market. that's all you need.... and if you get really good at it and you want more money you can trade two contracts instead of one. If you're Trading has been very very good... you might trade with scaling techniques that can bring you back to break even on a losing trade because you understand market dynamics.... or you can scale in and out to control your risk Parameters. Your probability of success Is largely a function of the market you choose to trade. Indiscriminate Trading has never been a way for me to be profitable in the market. It just never worked for me.
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!
by ScottBogatin
NG1! Is Very Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for NG1!. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 2.465. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 2.316 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
RUS:NG1!Short
by SignalProvider
12
NG1! Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear friends , My technical analysis for NG1! is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 2.458 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 2.312 Recommended Stop Loss - 2.541 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
RUS:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
17