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RBOB Gasoline Futures

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RB1! trade ideas

Gasoline futuresOn the above 4-day chart price action has corrected 27% from the peak and 15% following the confirmation of the head and shoulders pattern, an expected measured move. A number of reasons now exist to expect an move up. They include: 1) RSI resistance breakout. 2) Support and resistance. Price action confirms support on past resistance. 3) Regular bullish divergence. 4) RSI crosses up 35. This is significant. Look left. History tells us the following move up from this oversold condition has never been less than 20% and never been more than 700%. Is it possible price action continues to correct? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% Timeframe for long: 4-12 days Return: 20% without leverage
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by without_worries
GASOLINE Excellent short-term buy opportunity.Gasoline (RB1!) is on a minor pull-back on the 1D chart, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has been rebounding since the October 05 oversold bottom, something that has done the exact same way the previous two times on May 04 2023 and December 08 2022. Both of those fractals have (so far) similar structure with the current sequence since the September 13 High, and both reached at least their 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on those rebounds. As a result, we are taking advantage of the current pull-back to get a more comfortable low risk buy and target 2.500 (marginally below the 0.618 Fibonacci level). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
1
Gasoline futures portend pleasure at the pumpAmong my favorite charts this time of year is that of RBOB gasoline futures. Often as Halloween approaches, wholesale gasoline costs start coming down significantly from highs in the summer. Call it a nice treat for commuters and families around the country. As it stands, the prompt-month of RBOB is now under $2.20 - that's a fresh 10-month low should we close here. RBOB at $2.18 means that retail pump prices should continue their recent trend lower, eventually finding the $3.20 mark if the historical premium of about $0.95 holds. It's key to remember that the price difference between the futures and the retail cost of a gallon of regular unleaded depends on a host of factors - taxes, transport costs, refiner margins, and refinery outages being among them. I see a bit more downside ahead on the chart. Consider that, according to seasonal data from Equity Clock, RBOB tends to move lower from mid-October through early December. That could mean gas prices under $3 in terms of a national retail average by, say, Christmas. Keep your eye on the low from last December - $2.05. Another layer of possible dip-buyers could come into play near $1.95. On the upside, I see resistance near $2.45 - the range lows from this past May and June.
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NYMEX:RB1!Short
by mikezaccardi
5
GASOLINE: Over the 1D MA50, estabilising the new rally.Gasoline is on a neutral 1D technical setting (RSI = 51.588, MACD = -0.026, ADX = 46.131) as it only crossed over the 1D MA50 on Monday. That was after a 3 week consolidation between the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200, which held and kept the price over the bottom of the long term Channel Up. We consider this breakout as the final confirmation of the new rally to the top of the Channel Up. Buy and aim at a rise close to +30% (TP = 3.200). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by InvestingScope
RBOB Gasoline FuturesGood morning, I have traded this for the last 15 years, I am 14-1 on this trade, has a high probability of success. Time Frame is 8/2-8/19. The initial "crash and return to mean" is due to the seasonal demand consequence of the market. Low margin req, calender spreads would be a good option, I will let you figure out the set up as I can't give everything away. Entry can be tricky as, 80% of the trades in the last 15yrs have been initiated on 8/2, the other 20% on 8/3 to 8/4. After analyzing the trades the best equity option for this trade is usually realized between 8/8-8/11 (15yr average best entry range) as an entry and it varies however that is why you need to be monitoring this extremely boring trade. Exit will be on 8/16->8/18. Now the other issue is the open interest on the September contract, if you will be going that route on the front or back end, as it will exit quickly between this exit timeframe so do not hesitate to offset contracts a little early as 42,000 barrels of gasoline showing up at your house is not part of the plan. Be diligent on this trade as it has a high success rate however there are some hidden pitfalls in this trade. "No sleep and I sound like a suit again, vague, gives hints, and is kinda dumb." -Kewlkat
NYMEX:RBU2023Long
by kewlkat
Cracking the Crack SpreadThe ‘crack spread’ is a term used in the oil industry that refers to the differential between the price of crude oil and the petroleum products extracted from it, such as gasoline and heating oil. The name comes from the process of 'cracking' crude oil in a refinery to produce these valuable products. The spread serves as a measure of refining margin, or profitability, for oil refineries. When the prices of petroleum products are high relative to the price of crude oil, the crack spread widens, and refining margins increase, making it profitable for refineries. Conversely, when the price of crude oil is high relative to the products, the crack spread narrows, and refining can become less profitable or even unprofitable. The crack spread is typically expressed in terms of the ratio between the input (crude oil) and the outputs (refined products). For example, a 3:2:1 crack spread assumes that three barrels of crude oil can produce two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil. In the futures market, the crack spread can be traded by buying crude oil futures and selling futures in its products, thus locking in the margin between input and output prices. This can serve as a form of hedging against price risk for those involved in the oil industry. This week, we will delve into various factors influencing the crack spread and evaluate their potential impact on the current spread; Geopolitical Concerns SPR Refill One of the key points mentioned when we last covered oil was the potential refills of the SPR which are still pending as an attempt to purchase up to 6 million barrels was abandoned at the last minute. As the drawdown in the SPR continues, it seems inevitable that the Biden administration will have to replenish the reserve, likely pushing oil prices higher due to increased demand. Russia Ukraine escalation The simmering tensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict leave us wondering if the price of crude oil might escalate further. The ongoing conflict focuses on a key port in the Black Sea. Consequently, this could potentially impact up to 20% of oil exports from Russia. Although most major nations no longer rely on Russia for oil supply, some countries are still buying from Russia. This leads to the concern that such countries might have to turn to the open market to make up for their supply shortage one day. Seasonality Crack falls in the 2nd half of the year Seasonal trends indicate a pattern where the 3:2:1 crack spread declines in the second half of the year. This trend has persisted for 6 out of the past 10 years, with the average decline of 29%. Three of the remaining four years closed flat, with one year ending approximately 20% higher. Economic Growth Current economic growth weak but some soft landing expected The year-on-year GDPs for major economies are trailing their long-term averages, indicating still fragile economic growth as industries and consumers grapple with sticky inflation and high rates. Weak economic growth generally dampens the crack spread, as industries and consumers cut back on spending, reducing the demand for refined products. Currency Interplay Between Dollar, Crude, and Crack Spread The Inverse Dollar and Crude Oil has as long-standing positive correlation up until the Russian-Ukraine Crisis when both Crude Oil and the dollar move sharply higher. As this relationship now begins to normalize again, any weakness in the dollar could provide the fuel for Crude & the Crack Spread to rally again. The crack spread is also highly correlated with Crude Oil outright prices, hence any view on crude oil can also be expressed using the Crack Spread. The crack spread hit an all-time high in June 2022 amidst the Russia-Ukraine tensions. Currently, the spread trades at a higher range relative to the past two decades and seems to face some resistance at the previous all-time high in 2013. On a shorter timeframe, the crack spread appears to be breaking out of a symmetrical triangle to the upside, typically a signal of bullish continuation. With prices slightly dipping, this could present an enticing opportunity. On balance the impending risk of the geopolitical event breaking out as well as the structurally weakening dollar seems to outweigh the seasonality and economic weakness effect. To express our view on the 3:2:1 crack spread, we can set up a long position on the crack spread. This can be set up by buying 2 RBOB Gasoline Futures & 1 NY Harbor ULSD Futures and selling 3 Crude Oil Futures at the current level of 114.5, stop loss at 97 and take profit at 140. The calculation of the 3:2:1 crack spread should also be noted as: (2 * RBOB Gasoline Futures + 1 * NY Harbor ULSD Futures ) * 42 – (3 * Crude Oil Futures). The factor 42 is multiplied to the RBOB Gasoline Futures and NY Harbor ULSD Futures as the two are quoted in USD per gallon, this converts the price quotation in Barrel terms, which is the same as Crude Oil Futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by inspirante
2
Why are gasoline futures moving lower despite the bid in WTIYesterday, the EIA reported broad inventory levels from last week for Crude Oil, distillates and gasoline. Inputs to refineries averaged 16.5 M bbl/day during the week ending July 28, 2023, which was 40K bbl/day more than the previous week’s average while refineries operated at a reasonably high level capacity of approximately 92.7% last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.8 M bbl/day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 M bbl/day. So how does the stronger inventory fundamentals translate to the price of the underlying commodity WTI Crude and product, gasoline? Of the hourly charts shown here, September expiration gasoline looks a tad bit bearish despite the lower level study MACD showing the crossover in the average looking positive overall for prices. While WTI prices are likely headed over 90 into the fall period given the current trend, for the short term, gasoline may be seen as being on the offer block despite the resilience in WTI Crude. Gasoline futures move rather viciously in the RTH sessions and can be a drag on trading accounts if entries are not picked with some precision. Despite the bid today, I see initial resistance for September futures sitting at 2.8445 with a potential continuation move lower into 2.6630 for a profit target. While this is best taken short at or above 2.8194, it may take a while for us to get to that price. Use a stop a few points above the resistance level shown and aim for the profit target at 2.66309.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by TechTrader79
GASOLINE futures fall to 5-week low on low demand,high inventoryGasoline futures have dropped to a five-week low of $2.6 per gallon, primarily due to an unexpected increase in inventory and a decline in demand. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a decrease in gas demand from 8.936 million to 8.519 million b/d last week. Moreover, the total domestic gasoline stock has increased by 1.3 million bbl, while markets had anticipated a draw of 1.267 million. Additionally, WTI crude prices have been falling since hitting a five-month high in April, amid concerns that a slowdown in global growth could dampen fuel demand. Furthermore, OPEC+ has announced a surprising reduction of output by 1.6 million barrels per day for the remainder of 2023, which may further impact fuel prices. From a technical standpoint, the current price is within a bearish flag on a short continuation pattern. The next potential support area is at $2.0 If the price breaks the dynamic trendline of the channel, we may witness a further drop in gasoline prices.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by FOREXN1
9
2023 Outlook: Is recession coming to town?After a turbulent 2022, there will be a lot of factors affecting the investment market in 2023. I have picked three most important ones to talk about. • When will Fed stop hiking rate? • Will there be a global recession? • How could China’s reopening impact the market? When will Fed stop hiking rate? I respect Fed’s pivot table showing Fed Fund Rate will go up to 5.1%, but I don’t think it will go any higher, nor will it go below that level by the end of 2023. The pattern of interest rate hike could be (1) three 25 bp hikes or (2) one 50 bp followed by one 25bp. The market will cheer if the next hike in Feb is 25 bp since it opens the door for the terminal rate below 5%, but my assumption is on two hikes of 50 and 25 bp each that will end the hiking cycle by Q1. Obviously, inflation peaked in US. Gas price had normalized and the drop in house price will eventually press the rent. The cash consumer accumulated during pandemic is exhausting and the layoff will make consumption more cautious. High base will also have a negative effect on annual inflation change. We will see inflation in a down trend in 2023, but we might not see the annual inflation rate drop to 2% target by end of the year. However, a “positive” real interest rate will allow the FED to stop hiking rate, especially the threat of recession is coming closer. The Fed funds futures are currently reflecting differently and presenting a good opportunity to trade if 5% is the terminal rate by Q1. Short the April contract now helps express your market view in this scenario. Will there be a recession? YES, we will have a recession. The aggressive rate hikes by global central banks put a strong brake on economy growth. High interest rates stifled many lending activities, especially on high price tag items such as mortgage and car loan. Recession is also a self-fulfilling prophecy. When everyone is talking about recession, and your banker is telling you there will be recession, the preventative measure you taken will contribute to recession. Corporate will reduce capital expenses/investment and layoff people to reserve capital, and consumer will restrict spending to reserve cash flow. Not to mention the way the company handle the supply chain issue during pandemic is also back firing. Some companies expanded the capacity because there was a shortage, but this becomes excessive when activities return to normal. Semiconductor is a good example, and you can now easily get a PS5 without crazy markup. The financial markets haven’t factored in the risk of recession, except the yield curve inversion. Stock market is still focusing on Fed policy and lacks enough attention on recession. We might have more recession discussion in Q1, which might offset some of the positive effect if Fed accomplished their mission. A recession might officially realize in the 2H 2023, which will have a material impact on company’s revenue and earnings. I don’t foresee a deep and prolonged recession, as the Fed has plenty of room to avoid it. Since stock market is forward-looking, we might see the lows of stock market in 1H, and some recovery in the 2H, but I don’t think we will revisit the new highs. After a significant underperformance in 2022, growth stock might perform better when the Fed stop hiking rate. How could China’s reopening impact the market? I am pessimistic on China’s economy. Reopening can end the pain but doesn’t mean the economy will see an immediate boost. The three-year covid zero restriction had already hurt the root of the economy and depleted most of the confidence and purchasing power of consumers, corporate and government. I don’t foresee same material “revenge consumption” happened in the west when the economy is reopened, since Chinese consumers didn’t receive cash from the government, nor any wealth effect from stock and property market. Chinese government is good at stimulating the economy by infrastructure investment, but not much on consumer demand. Even the government wants to do something, they will first need to find enough cash. Companies diversified their production line will not come back just because of the reopening since they already learned in the pandemic it is harmful to put all the eggs in one basket. Not to mention the fact that the political tension with US will make thing worse. Comparatively, open-up is still better than lockdown, but the positive impact might be less than many expected. We might see some commodity prices such as crude oil and copper goes up because of the reopening, but the threat of global recession might offset some of the positive effect. Since China is now experiencing the peak of pandemic, we might have a clearer picture after Chinese New Year. We can use commodity price as leading indicators to access how strong the positive impact is. Happy trading and wish you have a fruitful year of 2023. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices.
NYMEX:RB1!
by FOTrading
1
Gasoline / US Dollar TIMEFIBSTimeFibs of the cycle 0-1. Consider the golden ratio of the time. Note that previous time Phi reversed the market. Let's see how the market reacts to 1/ Phi (1.618) Fibonacci is the order in chaos like a language of fractal. Dates of TimeFibs ratios as well as time periods are provided. 1.618 AT 6 OCT '22 Fibonacci channels Cover the Fractal Configuration of the waves of the cycle. Note how when market is bearish Triple Cross UO turns red. Until the point where it gets closer to lower green dynamic band. Try I use this indicator to see the balance between Bulls and Bears in relation to each other.
NYMEX:RB1!
by fract
9
RBOB Bollinger Band SqueezeThe RB1! Bollinger Bands bandwidth has narrowed to the narrowest width in 11 months as can be seen via the BandWidth indicator. Such a collapse in volatility usually precedes a volatility breakout in either direction. A Bollinger Band squeeze, which is a type of volatility breakout setup, is triggered when the bandwidth puts in a 6-month low which is a condition that has been achieved. This criterium is defined in the book “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands” by John Bollinger in the chapter "The Squeeze." The book states that a squeeze may oftentimes head fake and that a parabolic SAR (PSAR) may be used as a reversal trigger for an open trade or a trigger point for opening a new position in the direction price was heading when it hit the PSAR. Volume indicators and other technicals should be used to try and determine the direction of the squeeze and that is what I’ve done. Accumulation/Distribution% which is detailed in the book and linked below as an indicator I’ve published is trending down which is not necessarily the suggested use of the indicator but it was the best hint I could find about the direction of the breakout. %B is also trending down which again isn’t the intended use of the indicator but there’s not much else to go by. There’s a trendline which suggests going short and the 20-day sma is sloping downward which also suggests going short although it is pretty close to rolling up. Last time I noticed a squeeze setup was in soybeans and it broke out in the direction of the prior couple months which was down and is currently down with RBOB. The soybean idea is linked below. I’ve come up with down as the anticipated direction of the squeeze breakout with a stop (and reverse if practical) at the PSAR (blue dots trailing stop) and a target of 1.9315 at the lower channel line which should fall above the previous low of 1.8799. I will not actually be trading this because the notional value of 1 contract is $99,531 which is too high for me right now and it’s not a high conviction trade idea, more of a “I think this is what’s gonna happen, but it can go either way” type deal. It can head fake in one direction and break out in the other. If anyone has any ideas on which direction the volatility breakout is likely to be in based on technicals or fundamentals, please share. Accumulation/Distribution% indicator: Soybean Bollinger Band Squeeze idea:
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by Skipper86
1