RB1! trade ideas
Gasoline Long small position 1/2 sizestop @ 1.5850 target 1.8120 the reason I say small position is because its a cheap asset making any size move larger in percentage. should the trade move against us I will be taking 3 other positions small as well.
2nd 1.67, 3rd 1.66, 4th @ 1.6480
Another reason why I love this position is because the roll over on the buy side pays 26% interest annualy so holding it is worth while.
RBOB Gasoline Futures (Jan 2020) - Rectangle in formationNYMEX:RBF2020
Clear rectangle on the January Futures of the RBOB Gasoline.
A breakout could lead to an interesting trend to ride.
When trading commodities and futures contracts you should always take into account the specifications of each contract to calculate exactly how many contracts to buy or sell short on the basis of your risk management and position sizing.
www.cmegroup.com
Gasoline: Repeating a 1980s pattern. Major bullish break ahead.We have discovered a 1980s pattern on Gasoline (RB) that is strikingly simalar the recent candle action on 1W. We are rather puzzled though as to which point of the 1980s sequence we are currently at.
In 1980s the Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) emerged after a Double Bottom. Currently we are past that Golden Cross and the price is approaching the last low on a sequence bearing many similar characteristics with the old pattern. This leads us to believe that the Golden Cross is irrelevant on this pattern and that the price mostly follows the trend of the 1W MA50 into similar benchmarks of the 1980 pattern.
For that reason it may be viable to start taking long positions with a projected Target Zone of 2.5000 - 2.8000.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
RBOB breaking out into up channelWe are now well into the driving season with additional incentive moving the crack margins upwards: namely the loss of the Philadelphia PES Refinery -ve 335 kbbl capacity and no obvious solution to the shipping risk in the Straits of Hormuz. RBOB has been very responsive to a simple channel moves for many months. There is no need to over complicate RBOB. It's a straight buy.
Waiting for the breakout on USOILWe expect the breakout on USOIL, remember the condition:
Gasoline is the leading indicator from Crude Oil
Gasoline (RB1!): Bullish reversal.Gasoline made two important break outs this week: 1) above the 1D Lower High trend line and 2) the 1.7659 4H Resistance. Trading now on standard bullish set up (RSI = 62.821, MACD = 0.013, Highs/Lows = 0.0339), a Channel Up may emerge if the 1.7868 Resistance is rejected. If broken then the uptrend will most likely continue until it reaches the MA200. It will be extremely positive if the MA50 turns into a support now. The long term TP is 1.9000.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
GASOLINE Long SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish after it bounced on the 1D Support and broke the previous Channel Down.
Target: 2.0400 (next Resistance).
Short on RBOBShorting RBOB ( Gasoline ) at 2.15.
TECHNICAL
This is largely based on a technical situation:
Two (2) fib levels confluence
88.8% ( MAY ’18 -> DEC ‘18 )
1.27% ( MAR ’19 -> APR ‘19 )
One ( 1 ) notable Fib “Time” Level ( 1.382% FEB ’16 -> MAY ’18 ( Bullish Retrenchment ) )
Previous Structure
Mid ’18, Aug ’17 & Jun ‘15
RSI Divergence
RSI ( Daily Chart ) topped out in MAR; a further push up would be x2 divergence
100 Day MA
I haven’t fully quantified this part albeit it will likely end up ~20% above the 100 day moving average; it has certainly exceeded that ( NOV -> DEC ’18 ) albeit 20% was the top in MAY ‘18
Round #
It’s a round #
FUNDAMENTAL
There are a lot of fundamental factors affecting why this might not be a good trade. The US is looking to end waivers on Iran, Venezuela ( it’s happening ), Saudi Aramco is looking to IPO soon, etc.
On the other hand, Trump has been pretty quiet on oil prices ( BTW – I know this trade is RBOB ) & seasonality ( I haven’t done my own research yet ) suggests it’s coming to a consolidation stage ( link ).
IN SHORT
Stop Loss: ( 2.2587 )
TP: ( 0.618 from 24 DEC ‘18 however far it pushes into it )
GASOLINE Buy Signal on pull backPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Bullish if then price pulls back near 1.8900.
Target: 1.9800 (projected Higher High of the pattern).
SOMETHING VERY BAD MAYBE ABOUT TO HAPPEN I HOPE I AM WRONG HIGHER GAS PRICES WOULD CHOKE THE POCKETS OF ALL IF THIS TURNS OUT THIS IS THE ONLY POST I HOPE FOR US ALL IS WRONG
Gasoline: How high can it get?This is a long term analysis on Gasoline on the 1W chart. We are trying to determine where this aggressive buying sequence that started at the end of December will stop.
The previous similar sequence stopped just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Then it bottomed just under the 0.500 level and consolidated before it resumed the uptrend.
We expect a similar pattern this time as well. The current 0.618 Fibonacci level is at 1.8883, so expect a top around 1.8600. Similarly the 0.500 level is at 1.5543, so this is a projected pull back mark.
This analysis is best suited for long term traders and investors who are looking for a safe and high R/R position for the next bull run.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
GASSED up!We got a very pretty looking IHS breakout in gasoline futures this week. It's also a leading indicator for light sweet crude, brent crude, etc.. Sorry but gas prices are going up. Targeting $1.65.
What RBOB repeats 2016 cycle.We will see but looks similar What RBOB repeats 2016 cycle.We will see but looks similar so far.RBOB could 1.10 by the end of the month.
