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Nat Gas Daily Brief: Trump Tariffs 2/10/25There has been a great deal of talks about Trump Tariffs and the effect on the NG market. While my personal belief is that Trump is following his personal dictum, which he laid out in his 1989 book "Art of the Deal". This is not a belief or endorsement for the Trumpster, just an observation through his own words and actions. The issue is China and the overall tariffs, which were announced last week. While Mexico and China have negotiated a hold on the imposed tariffs, it was funny to see that energy had a different regime in the percent being levied. Trump’s executive order on tariffs on Chinese products is a blanket 10 percent tax on everything coming in from the country. His proposed plans for Canada and Mexico are similarly broad: everything imported into the US from these countries would get a 25 percent tax applied, except for Canadian oil, which would be pegged at 10 percent. Funny how energy products were treated differently! The expectation is a tit-for-tat retaliation from the exporting nations. The US is currently the number four exporter of Oil, the number one exporter of NG, and number four exporter of coal. While China is the number one importer of oil (US #2), Japan the number one importer of NG (US #7), and China the number one of coal (US statistically >1%). The United States is the world's second-largest producer of energy. It produces 16% of the world's energy, about three-fourths as much as China. Since 2019, the country has been a net exporter of energy. In 2023, 102.8 quads were produced and net exports were 7.6% of production. On an energy content basis, even though U.S. total energy imports increased by about 1% in 2023, U.S. total energy exports were the highest on record, at about 29.50 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), and increased by about 8% from 2022. Total energy exports exceeded total energy imports by about 7.80 quads, the largest annual margin on record. So needless to say, energy is a big business for the US. For the most current data, the US exported 26.8B dollars of energy in November of 2024. With growth averaging 1.5%/year. So, Trumps proposed tariffs would only effect the large amount of Canadian oil flowing into the US. Trumps initial tariffs show that he is separating energy from overall imported goods, because of the large energy exports the US sends abroad. Most nations understand the inflationary effect of energy on their overall economies. Energy accounts for 13% (just under 7 trillion US$) of world wide GDP. This places energy second to health care expenditures in many countries; and in some cases first. So the long winded point to this post, is that the effect of the tariffs on NG prices are a red herring. We can see from the charts above that in 2024 China's imports of LNG is the lowest it has been in six year. Mainly due to the decrease in economic output due to the slowing Chinese economy, but more likely the new NG pipeline the "Pride of Siberia", which opened up this past summer. China has in fact been reselling its NG cargo to Europe on the spot market for the majority of 2024. And id predicted to continue doing so with the remaining contracted shipment scheduled for 2025. Europe NG storage is at the lowest levels since the beginning of the Ukraine war. Although Europe is still receiving Russian NG, the shutting of the Ukraine transit deal on New Year's day, it will be interesting to see the Russian percentage of European supply when EuroStat numbers are release in March. The sanctions levied by Biden on Insurance carriers for shadow fleet carries of Russian LNG have not been repealed by Trump, which is expected to dramatically reduce supply also. With European storage at 53%, a colder European continent forecasted for the next two-three weeks, and the European mandate for storage levels to reach a predetermined level (70%) by May, this looks very healthy for the US LNG market, tariffs or no tariffs. In Trump's 1989 book, "The Art of the Deal", he has some quotes which can be seen in how he is negotiating today with other governments and their economies. (I am in no way in support or against any of these quotes, only using his own words to make a judgement on what he might possible do going forward.) Quote #1 - "I aim very high and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after. Sometimes I settle for less than I thought but I still end up with what I want." Quote # 2 - "It’s been said that I believe in the power of positive thinking. In fact, I believe in the power of negative thinking. I happen to be very conservative in business. I always go into the deal anticipating the worst. If you plan for the worst—if you can live with the worst—the good will always take care of itself." But the most poignant point in his book is about getting leverage. He states that you must provide something others want. Trump says that "if the other party realizes how badly you want something, you’re dead. The best place to negotiate is from a position of strength, and you get that with leverage. Leverage means to have something the other party wants. Or better yet, needs. Or, best of all, simply can’t do without. That’s not always the case of course, and that’s where imagination and salesmanship come in: convincing the other party it’s in his best interest to make the deal."
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
9
Nat Gas Weekly Update: 2/9/25Models have been having a hard time with the long range physics of the global atmospheric patterns. Which is great for those of us that can see past a computer! The models began to see this last weekend, and the price gapped higher 16 cent. This weekend they confirmed once again, and we opened 10 cents higher. There has been continued support around the 20D SMA and we are now looking at the 61.8% fib ($3.50) to become the new resistance level. But all these chart technical cannot stop the cold and the withdrawal of NG form storage. This weeks video touches upon storage and the importance of the storage/price relationship. Natural Gas pricing is a function of fundamentals and sentiment. I use technical levels to verify if pricing is in equilibrium with fundamentals. To make sure that sentiment does not throw the supply/demand cost structure out of balance. Too high of a price and there becomes constraints on the usage, and a replacement with cheaper, dirtier coal. If the price becomes too low, then there is a cutback in exploration, production, TIL wells (which we will talk about in the future), and a decrease in well head volume. Just like this past summer when NG reached historic lows, the cure for low price is less supply. Which is why producer restraint, low rig count and a historic number of TIL and uncompleted wells helped with over storage. The weekend models both trended 15 HDD colder, with the European still 25 HDD colder than the US model. Using the conversion of 1.6 BCF/d per 1 HDD, the US and the Euro are predicted to use more than 92.8 BCF and 128 BCF than average in the next two weeks, respectively. This would put NG storage at over 8% of the 5-year average. This is quite bullish and I expect the March contract to settle at close at or above $3.75/MMCF. It is possible for $4.00/MMCF if withdrawals hit the predicted 900 BCF for the month of February. Keep it burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025Long
by NrG_Trader
1
NATGAS Massive Long! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The market is trading on 3.072 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 3.428 Recommended Stop Loss - 2.914 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
2
NATURAL GAS: Channel Down bottomed and is rebounding to 4.800Natural Gas is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.119, MACD = -0.072, ADX = 39.523) as the bearish wave of the long term Channel Up found support on its bottom and the 1D MA100 and is rebounding. It hasn't yet crossed over the 1D MA50 but when it does the bullish signal will be validated. On any occassion, last time the 1D RSI rebounded near this level, it was on the October 18th and August 27th 2024 lows. Both later rebounded by at least +60.48%. We aim for a similar target (TP = 4.800). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by InvestingScope
Nat Gas Weekly: Groundhog Day/Week Update. 2/2/25 The groundhog saw his shadow, and it is money in the bank for NG!!!!! HA!!! This week’s video will discuss the verification of the warm up last week and next week in the US. How another Elongated Polar Vortex (EPV), the ninth of the season looks to finally break the stratospheres back with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. Although not so sure why something that has been seen for the last three weeks is called sudden! How that is going to influence the next 3-8 weeks, and the verification form past events. Remember that the models have a hard time with the interaction of different forcing inputs. They can see the warm moist Pacific air, they can see the cold dense air in the Artic, but they have a difficult time having the two inter act. Throw in there an extreme Polar event 80 miles up in the atmosphere and they are down right horrible. But luckily, we have the past to help us see what these conditions have done and are likely to do again. We are so concerned about the weather due to it being close to ½ of the demand for NG usage. So if price discovery is dictated by the supply/demand balance and the weather influences one half of the demand, then we better understand what the weather will bring. Storage is dropping in Europe, putting a big demand for worldwide LNG. Tenders earmarked for Asia a being sold on the spot market and redirected to Europe. It looks that Europe is going to cool down again along with North America. I will post another time on the interaction between western European and North American weather patterns. But know that what happens in the US is telegraphed 7-10 days in Western Europe. This is why TTF has rallied this past week. They are looking at the same forcing patterns we are looking at. They get cold then the US get cold. They warm up the US warms up. Great tool to use in the summer also. This coming cold is going to eat away into the US NG storage. Two weeks ago, it was predicted that storage was going to end up somewhere around 1.7 TCF at the end of the withdrawal season. But the market only looking at the model’s, screaming winter is over, winter is over!!!! Had industry readjusting the storage numbers back up closer to 2.0 TCF. Which would put the season end 250BCF above the 5-year average. This cold will eat into storage, LNG facilities will continue to come on-line and producers will continue to show proper supply management. Listen to the Company conference calls from the big E&Ps, Pipeline provider, and oil/gas field providers. They are all in agreement that last year’s pricing killed their bottom line and discipline is the word of the day. I expect the models to continue to print colder as they take into count the MJO, major teleconnections, and the PV. The estimates for storage will begin to drop and the price to increase. There is much talk about Tariffs and the Chinese DeepSeek AI model going to influence the supply/demand balance. But these just become good excuses to sell rallies and pump price drops. The current COT report shows longs at their highest ratio to shorts since last May’s price rally. So be very careful of Long Squeezes. Just like a short squeeze, the future positions are highly leveraged and rapid and volatile price drops are more the rule than the exception. So, make sure you are watching the models during the 03:00-05:00 GMT and 17:00-19:00 GMT. I believe that the general trend is to be up until mid-March and will be investing and trading accordingly. These is not advice, but just what I am looking at for the basis of my own personal trading. I will post later in the week dedicated to only supply/demand/storage after the early week estimates get revised higher from the colder model prints and the overall general industry discussing the colder weather coming. Remember the institutional boys only want to discuss in the open what they have already bet on so the retail and smaller investor provide them with healthy exit points. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
2
Natural Gas Based on historical price patterns and seasonal demand cycles for natural gas, the **best months to buy natural gas stocks** (or ETFs tied to natural gas) have historically been **April–June** and **September–October**, when prices often hit seasonal lows. Here’s a breakdown of why these periods stand out: --- ### **1. April–June: Post-Winter Low** - **Historical Trend**: Natural gas prices typically decline in spring due to reduced heating demand after winter. Storage inventories are often rebuilt during this period, leading to oversupply and lower prices. - **Example**: From 2000–2023, natural gas futures averaged **~15% lower prices in April–June** compared to winter peaks. - **Why Buy Here**: Stocks may be undervalued as markets price in weaker short-term demand. This period offers a potential entry point before summer cooling demand (air conditioning) or hurricane-related supply risks emerge. --- ### **2. September–October: Pre-Winter Dip** - **Historical Trend**: Prices often dip in early fall ("shoulder season") before winter demand kicks in. Traders anticipate storage levels (which peak in November) and may sell ahead of uncertainty. - **Example**: In 13 of the past 20 years, natural gas hit a seasonal low in September or October. - **Why Buy Here**: Investors can position for the winter rally (Nov–Feb), when heating demand spikes and prices historically rise. Stocks may rally in anticipation. --- ### **3. December–February: Use Caution** - **Risk**: While winter sees price spikes due to cold weather, stocks may already reflect these gains by late fall. Buying during winter carries risk of a post-peak correction (e.g., mild winters in 2015–2016 caused prices to crash 40%). --- ### **Key Historical Exceptions** - **Weather Shocks**: Extreme cold (e.g., 2014 Polar Vortex) or hurricanes (e.g., Katrina in 2005) can disrupt seasonal patterns. - **Storage Gluts**: In years with record-high storage (e.g., 2020), prices may stay depressed even in winter. - **Macro Shifts**: The U.S. shale boom (post-2008) and LNG exports (post-2016) have altered traditional seasonality. --- ### **Strategic Takeaways** - **Buy Low, Sell High**: Focus on **April–June** and **September–October** for accumulation. - **Avoid Chasing Winter Rallies**: By December, prices and stock valuations may already reflect winter premiums. - **Pair with Data**: Monitor the EIA’s weekly storage reports (released Thursdays) and weather forecasts. --- ### **Long-Term Considerations** - **Energy Transition Risks**: Renewables and decarbonization policies could suppress long-term demand for natural gas. - **Geopolitics**: Global LNG demand (e.g., Europe replacing Russian gas) may create new volatility. --- ### **Bottom Line** Historically, **April–June and September–October** have been the most favorable months to buy natural gas stocks. However, always validate with current storage data, weather outlooks, and macroeconomic trends. Natural gas is inherently volatile—**diversify** and avoid overexposure to this cyclical sector.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MasiView
The ES January 27th I told one of my students that I would do a video when we were talking Friday night. she was long because she was Trading the move higher on the S&P. so she took a drawdown on her long position because it traded lower from the high on Friday. I made the mistake Italian her that the market was most likely going to go higher because of a two-bar reversal that would indicate the market might retest the high... and that if she were still long she'd be able to get out at a better price. this ended up being very bad advice because the market gaped on the open on Sunday. but this kind of volatility if you don't get stuck on the wrong side of the market gives enormous reward for buyers and sellers if you look for a reversal patterns that favor buyers and sellers if you know how to determine where the buyers and sellers are. my guess is since I don't know everybody.... is that most Traders will not short any Market no matter what. the one thing that I didn't say and I want to say here.... if you're only a one-sided Trader..... you will only take long positions.... you're bias will likely not help you look for a reversals in the market that go higher because your brain is only looking for buyers and your strategy will be that you want to be long and you never want to be short and that kind of strategy can filter out any real thought about what a good trade looks like and you're just not going to do it anyway. even if you don't think like a one-sided Trader even though you only go long I believe your bias is still detrimental to your ability to look for the two major things that create havoc in your Trading... not knowing where the buyers are and where the sellers are even if you don't short. it just for the records it it's much easier to take short trades in the Futures Market than it is to take short trades in the equities Market.
NYMEX:NG1!
by ScottBogatin
NATGAS Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4.010 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3.872 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Video: Beating the models with MeteorologyIt's a bit long, but my first video. I am explaining the upcoming February pattern. How and what to look for in the winter with long range synoptic weather models. I am expecting the upcoming week to be warmer than normal, but do believe that cold returns for an overall colder February. This is going to be influencing storage coming out of the demand season. This I believe will keep NG above the $3 mark until we see what happens with production after the winter draw down and LNG terminals bringing new trains on. More LNG coming online is iffy at best, due to the constant delays in completion. But hopefully with the new Trump administration there will not be any hold up on the FERC permits being issued. The delays are just good old fashion construction delays. I expect a lower open and a drop before the contract rolls over Tuesday. Currently there is a wide margin between the Feb and March contract price that needs to be closed. The Feb contract dropping is one half of the equation, the other is the March contract gaining. So, I am looking to short the Feb contract until it rolls over and enter the lower March to the end of the month. Good old fashion, buy low sell high. This is not investing advice, just what my personal plan is. I continue to expect large 20-30 cent daily moves. So use your charting skills to set you resistance/support zones. I will continue to use the 20D SMA as resistance. It has stayed true for two full contracts. Until I see different in the long range weather, I expect the price to stay above this level. Although, there will be some readjustment after the contract rolls over with a lower drop and a gap down. Good luck! Keep it Burning!!!
NYMEX:NG1!
by NrG_Trader
3