Crude Oil: Weakest Setup in Recent Times | Caution Advised🛢️ Crude is showing one of the worst technical setups in recent memory. On the weekly chart , it's trading at a 4-year low , with back-to-back weekly breakdowns , indicating strong bearish momentum.
🔻 If the price breaches the recent support near $55.12 , we could see further downside in the coming weeks. This level will be crucial—holding it might trigger a bounce, but a breakdown could confirm a deeper trend shift.
⚠️ However, it’s important to remember: Crude Oil is highly sensitive to geopolitical and policy-driven moves . Technicals can break down quickly under such influences, so trade with strict risk management .
📉 I'm using the #iSparkIndicator to monitor momentum and breakdown confirmations. It’s currently showing sustained weakness with no bullish divergence yet.
📌 Key Levels to Watch :
Support: $55.12
Resistance: $64.50
💬 Stay cautious and reactive—not predictive. Let the market show its hand.
🔍 Interested in the iSparkIndicator? Check my profile for more info.
#CrudeOil #OilAnalysis #WTI #iSparkIndicator #TechnicalAnalysis #Commodities #SwingTrading
WTI1! trade ideas
micro wti in wave 4 pullback next wave 5Hello traders, I noted an Elliott wave aggressive bullish wave 1 run with strong bullish candles followed by a complex wave 2 correction then followed by a strong impulse 5 wave structure that I noted as wave 3 at premium. Currently, in a simple corrective wave 4 at the ( green area of interest) I see that wave 4 still is in progress and can potentially finish at the trap of fib.0618 making sure to leave some liquidity behind for later structure manipulation. Noting, that 4wave can not violate wave 2 territory per Elliott waves rules. When wave 4 is completed wave 5, I suggest will resume to grab the above the liquidity see in yellow @ 1 fib extension or more 1.272=(for Elliott wave traders).. note 30 min chart , confluence on 4hr and 12 hr chart
Crude oil 4 h time frame 🛢️ Technical Overview (WTI Crude Oil – 4H)
📐 Pattern Formation:
A double bottom pattern is clearly forming, which is a classic bullish reversal structure.
The neckline appears to be just below the $59.00 area.
A breakout above this neckline would confirm the pattern and open the door for further upside.
🎯 Measured Move Projection:
The vertical projection shows a +7.89 USD target (around 12.49% upside).
Measured from the neckline (~$59.00), the projected target is around $66.90–$67.00.
🔍 Key Levels:
Support (bottom of the pattern): ~$56.00–$56.30
Neckline/Breakout level: ~$59.00
Target zone: ~$66.90–$67.00
Resistance on the way up: ~$61.00 and ~$64.50
🧠 Outlook & Bias:
Short- to Medium-term Bias: Bullish, contingent on a confirmed breakout above the $59 neckline.
A break and close above $59.00 would activate the pattern and favor a continuation toward $66.90.
If price fails to break out and falls back below ~$56.00, the pattern is invalidated.
📌 Potential Trade Setup (Educational Only):
Entry: Break and close above $59.00
Stop Loss: Below $57.50
TP1: $61.00
TP2: $64.50
TP3: $66.90
Looking to short CL to continue lowerCL is making a corrective move higher before moving down to the ultimate target of last Daily structure leg down. It retraced to Daily bearish Fair Value Gaps (internal range liquidity zones) which should act as resistance. 15M bearish structure is in Extreme premium.
I'm looking for CL to break down bullish corrective structure on 5M chart and start a final move down.
Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering.
Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00
Selling CL based in line with daily bearish trendI did video analysis yesterday. I was looking to short CL which provided short entry in NY AM session however bounced back forming inside bar on daily chart. Today CL swept the liquidity above Daily inside bar high and reversed forming a breaker on 15M chart. I still expect yesterday's discussed idea and move to happen with target of big bearish Wednesday Daily candle low.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis:
Recently, crude oil has been running up. Yesterday, the daily line had a technical retracement under the pressure of 65.00. Today, we are still bearish. Let's continue to sell when it rebounds. There is still a lot of room for crude oil to fall. Today's crude oil rebounded near 64.00 and sold. If it breaks below 60.00, it will open up a new space for a big drop. The recent data and fundamentals of crude oil are suppressing it. Buy today and expect a big rebound.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
Looking to sell CLI'm looking to sell CL futures based on yesterdays' price action on daily chart which suggests that we might see the next leg down in line with Daily downtrend.
Looking to short pending one more move higher to take equal highs created in early London session and looking for breaker lower to structure logic stop loss and sufficient R:R.
Gold silver coffee TeslaThis is March 23rd. there was a great setup for the reversal in gold which should have been expected.... and it looks like it's coming down to support where the market had gapped higher originally. when gold traded lower it took out a whole bunch of breakout buyers.... now we need the weight and see if new buyers will be entering the gold market. and this would have been a very easy short yesterday for the gold market and an easy continuation as the market traded lower today where we may find some buyers. silver is in a unique way more interesting than the gold because there's a chance that it could trade higher enough that that would trigger buyers to go long anticipating the possibility that the market could go to the all-time high of 50. coffee looks pretty good for a continuation higher there was a good trade location to go long on coffee yesterday. I think Tesla's probably a great Buy with a high potential to go substantially higher.... I would not be surprised if we learn someday that Elon Musk bought more shares of Tesla anticipating that the market is that a support and will go considerably higher in a market that would look weak to traders who don't understand opportunity. Elon was the victim of political manipulation with no real problems with his cars.... sales were down but the politicians with large amounts of capital put pressure on Tesla to lower.
Crude Oil Is Making Hard Work of Gains into ResistanceCride oil may have recovered back above $60, but it is making hard work of it. And with resistance looming and large specs increasing short bets, perhaps a pullback due. But does that mean a break below $60 is imminent?
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index
Order Flow + Market Structure = Holy Trading BibleYes, I know there's a million strategies out there. All profitable, all suck. It really comes down to comprehension of the basics and that particular strategy, the patience and discipline to wait for that set up to present itself, and lastly, the focus and calmness to manage your trade effectively, all the way to take profit.
Case In Point
Planning the Trade: Crude Oil Scenarios in a Shifting Macro LandNYMEX:CL1!
In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil prices traded negative for the first time, and we have yet another volatile April.
"If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail." Preparation is essential before taking on the market head-on.
Many participants choose to stay on the sidelines when volatility exceeds 1 standard deviation. Others, however, see this as an opportunity—adapting their risk per trade, adjusting targets, and refining trade management. Reducing position size can be an effective way to manage periods of heightened volatility.
This Week's Trade Idea: Crude Oil
We'll be reviewing Crude Oil price action with updated levels, fresh insights, and framing a trade plan with an example idea for reference.
Key Levels:
• April Monthly Open: 70.75
• 2025 mCVPOC: 71.13
• Yearly Open: 69.64
• 2024 Mid: 69.52
• 2025 Developing Mid: 66.52
• 2025 mCVAL: 65.08
• March 2025 Low: 64.37
• 2022 CVAL: 61.60
• 2024 Low: 59.91
The recent announcement of reciprocal tariffs, coupled with OPEC+ production plans (though scheduled earlier), and the rising uncertainty around a possible recession, have collectively weighed on demand expectations—resulting in a significant decline in oil prices. Although the 2024 low was reclaimed and prices have remained above this level, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain.
Scenario 1: Push Higher Towards 2025 Mid
In this scenario, we anticipate prices closing above March lows. Price then pushes higher toward the 2025 developing mid-range, re-entering the 2025 micro composite value area (mCVA).
Example Trade Idea:
• Timeframe: Hourly
• Setup: Wait for a candle close above March lows. Look for a pullback reaction off the 2025 Value Area Low (VAL).
• Entry: 64.50
• Stop: 64.00
• Target: 66.50
• Risk: 50 ticks
• Reward: 200 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4R
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Scenario 2: Range-Bound Price Action
In this scenario, the March low acts as strong resistance, aligning with the 2025 mCVAL. Price reverts lower towards the 2022 CVAL.
Example Trade Idea:
• Setup: Watch for signs of buyer exhaustion near March lows. If sellers regain control, look for a move back down toward 2022 CVAL.
• Timeframe: Hourly
• Entry: 64.00
• Stop: 64.40
• Target: 62.00
• Risk: 40 ticks
• Reward: 200 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 5R
________________________________________
Important Notes:
These are example trade ideas provided for educational purposes and are not intended as trade recommendations. Traders should perform their own analysis and thorough preparation before entering any positions.
Please be aware that stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at the specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
________________________________________
Glossary:
• VA: Value Area
• VPOC: Volume Point of Control
• VAL: Value Area Low
• C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.)
• mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)
Short CL, RR 1:11Setup: Short trade based on a potential liquidity grab.
Trade Setup:
Short Entry: 63.68.
Stop Loss: 64.18 (a reasonable stop above the liquidity grab zone to account for potential fakeouts).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:11, which suggests a highly favorable trade setup if the target is achieved.
Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of April 21 - 25th.
Oil has made a classic bearish impulse down, then a corrective retracement. The natural expectation is another impulse down. The fact that price pulled back into a W -FVG allows for this bearish expectation.
Wait for a bearish break of market structure to confirm a valid sell setup... and trade accordingly. No confirmation, not trade!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CrudeOil climax rise or more to blast upsidePrice chart read from 2022 High to recent low. All depiction marked as per #ElliottWave, #Supplu-Demand & #Liquidity concept. Price action of 1-2 week will be clear indication of which way its going to unfold. More Bullish if closing above given level or its going to form a important top.
Crude Oil - Bearish longer term biasCrude has recently broken its multi-year support level at $67. A retracement back toward that level is probable to cap any upside. The aligning overhead previous POC, Fib, and bearish descending wedge breakout argues for further continued weakness over the medium term.
The longer term target level of $45 coincides with previous resistance following the all time lows rebound in 2020, and also an untested POC at ~$43.75.