A barrel at $130? Not unless Hormuz closes for good.As tensions in the Middle East between Iran, Israel and the United States escalate, speculation about a $130 oil barrel resurfaces on the markets. While the recent rise in prices is very real, fuelled by geopolitics, there is nothing in the fundamentals or in the technical analysis to justify such an extreme scenario for the time being. Unless... the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Here are some explanations.
1) Oil rebounds, but no technical red alert
Since its low point in May, oil prices have surged by over 40%, buoyed by regional tensions and renewed volatility. The market is anticipating a rise in geopolitical risk, but for the time being, this recovery is not being accompanied by any technical red flags.
Indicators such as the COT report (Commitment of Traders), volumes and key technical thresholds on WTI and Brent are not confirming extreme tension at the current stage, as long as US oil remains below resistance at $80 a barrel. Although the 200-day moving average has been breached, and the reintegration of the $65 level has provided the starting point for a bullish impulse, the price of oil is now at a technical crossroads.
The chart below shows a bearish resistance line (red) on WTI, and the same applies to Brent. If these resistances were to be breached, this would be a strong bullish warning signal for the price of a barrel of oil towards $90/95.
2) A market under pressure... but framed by OPEC
Indeed, only a major supply constraint can push oil up to $130 a barrel.
The current geopolitical context comes at the worst possible time for OPEC. The oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, had recently decided to increase production after years of restrictions. The objectives were to respond to what was seen as robust demand, win back market share from US producers and punish less disciplined members.
In May, June and July, an increase of 411,000 barrels per day is scheduled. In other words, the market is receiving additional supply, which mechanically limits the risk of a speculative surge, barring a major exogenous shock such as the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
3) Iran/Israel/USA: the market prices the risk, but doesn't panic. Traders are currently considering three scenarios:
1. Tougher sanctions against Iran, reducing supply by 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.
2. A targeted attack on Iran's oil infrastructure.
3. A temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The first two cases can be absorbed by the market, notably thanks to the production capacities of other OPEC+ members or the strategic release of reserves. On the other hand, blocking the Strait of Hormuz would be a “game changer”.
The Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is the gateway to 20% of the world's oil supply, i.e. some 17 to 18 million barrels a day. It is also a vital route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from Qatar.
Even a partial shutdown would have an immediate impact on all logistics chains and the energy security of importing countries, and would trigger a brutal price shock. In this case, oil at 130 dollars would no longer be an extreme hypothesis, but a plausible scenario in the very short term.
The situation is, of course, evolving, and investors need to keep an eye out for weak signals: military movements in the Strait, targeted attacks on energy infrastructures, bellicose rhetoric. In the absence of a blockade of Hormuz, the fundamentals (rising OPEC production, slowing Chinese demand, technical stability) militate in favor of a ceiling of around $80/90.
A barrel at $130? Yes, but only if Hormuz closes completely.
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