CRUDEThis week's forecast is for a rise to the level of 72.98, after the third touch of the lower zone of the drawn triangle.
WTI1! trade ideas
Bearish on CrudeOilA very short post 😁
I just wanted to let you know, based on my technical analysis I see $62 to $63.5 an area that Crude Oil probably see in the near future. Then it has the potential to go towards $57.
That's it 😉
Cheers 🍻
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral af. Two weekly bear bars closing on their lows the past two weeks. Before that we had 12 weeks of most alternating bull/bear weeks. Can you get bearish now for a stronger leg down? I highly doubt it. Market has not had a weekly close below 65.6 for exactly a year. 65.6 is the November low and I expect it to hold. So looking for longs is probably the way to go but bulls only produced one single bull bar in the past 2 weeks. Need more buying pressure before looking for higher targets. I won’t touch it for now.
Quote from last week:
comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70.
comment : Bulls are not doing enough but bears are also barely making new lows. Market is mostly two sided and stuck inside an 8$ range for 2 months. Don’t over analyze it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 73
bull case: I won’t make up stuff here. Market has no direction for years now and the range is contracting. Bulls want to stay above 66 and test the upper bear trend line around 70 again. That’s about it.
Invalidation is below 66.
bear case: Bears are in control but it’s clearly a very weak trending trading range. We are inside nested triangles on higher time frames and selling below 67 has not been profitable for more than an intraday scalp since mid 2023. It hasn’t been profitable to get bearish below 67 for that long, why would you now.
Invalidation is above 71.6.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited.
→ Last Sunday we traded 68 and now we are at 67.2. Good outlook but trading ranges are not rocket science.
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. Can’t change much of last weeks short term outlook, since it’s still valid. Bears have targets below 66 but until they get a daily close below it, we continue sideways.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning. Again.
CRUDE OIL Weekly Forecast: Bearish! Wait for SHORTS!Price has traded through the low @67.71, indicating a shift in the market from bullish to bearish bias. There is an untapped imbalance above @67.87, an Internal Liquidity target. As we know. price seeks liquidity from External liquidity (lows and highs) to Internal Liquidity (FVGs). So the idea here is to wait for the pullback into the -FVG/imbalance and look for valod short setups, targeting the lows @66.98 and 66.50.
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Is Crude Oil about to Puke? 4hr chart The Elliott Wave chart is still bearish. I stay focused on key levels. Much lower prices possible, but of course it won't move in a straight line lol.
Is a Big Move Coming in Crude Oil?Crude oil has been limping for most of this year, and now some traders may see risk of a bigger drop.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the relentless series of lower highs since September 2023. The trend lines along these peaks have dropped at steeper angles, which potentially reflects increased selling pressure.
The second pattern is the series of slightly higher lows since September 2024. That may be viewed as a bearish flag.
Third, consider the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They swung earlier in the year, with the faster above the slower at times but that changed 2-3 months ago. They’re now in a clearer sequence, with the faster SMAs below the slower SMAs. All three are also falling. That could also indicate a longer-term downtrend has developed.
Next is the support zone around 64.50 to 67.75. Prices bounced quickly from this range between March and June of 2023, but are now spending more time in the same area. That could suggest longer-term support is fading.
Speaking of longer-term support, the second chart uses 2-week candles to compare the current environment with late 2014. Both saw long periods of sideways movement with lower highs. The earlier moment saw an accelerated downtrend once the weekly support level broke. Could a similar move be coming soon?
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crudeoil seems strong on 15 mins crude oil fut seems strong on 15 mins chart.
based on support which is too strong
based on indicator too
the following levels have been shared.
Crudeoil performance using algo Trend sniper algo indicator having 3 modes of trading strategy. Auto signal Based on price action, Buy only on up trend ; Sell only on down trend. With signal live alert .
OIL _ PlummetsImagine oil going to $40 and now imagine it going even to $13.
Oil is going to plummet.
A financial crisis is going to send ripples across the globe.
NFA
Crude Oil Intraday Technical Analysis for 05 December 2024!🚀 Unlock the potential with my #CrudeOil Intraday Technical Analysis for 05 December 2024!
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📍 Range Trigger Point (RTP): 5,839
📅 Day Range: 158
📈 Long Position
🔹 Buy Above: 5,924
📊 Average Position: 5,905
🎯 Target 1: 5,937
🎯 Target 2: 5,997
⛔ Stoploss: 5,871
📉 Short Position
🔹 Sell Below: 5,886
🎯 Target 1: 5,741
🎯 Target 2: 5,681
⛔ Stoploss: 5,939
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My analysis is based on the position of buyers and sellers on previous day's technical charts. By studying candlestick patterns, trading volume, indicator confirmations, and other important signals, I identify the best price ranges, entry points, timing, and appropriate stop-loss levels.
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Can the HOUSE Capitalize LONG ABOVE Ranging EQ Level $69.50?NYMEX:MCL1!
'2025 For a Gr8ter Reward, we must go to the Valley to CONQUER.' -500KTrey
Here on OIL we have been caught in the Range from low $66.25 to high $72.75 and EQ Level $69.50.
As we can see clearly to the left that the Daily Demand Zone has held from late Sept til now however sellers are very heavily present @ $70.00 Per Barrel N Higher making it Premium Pricing to Sell... However Could we get a break N a 1Hr Candle closure above EQ Level $69.50 and possibly above MKL $70.00 Per Barrel? If so I may be interested in GOING LONG from a LTF Entry Confirmation, if we get the break N candle closure above EQ Level on the 1Hr TF I will be interested in entering the Market LONG N making my target the 4Hr HIGH $71.50... remember nothing in the market is set in STONE we play the long term game of probability...
Our Profession is to manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE Returns of $$$ consistently... Lets focus on risking the Highest Probable Set-Ups during NY ONLY!!!
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Oil December 4th I wanted to look at oil because generally the pattern looks contracted to me. when I'm not clear on things I not only look at the daily chart but I'll look at some bigger time frames and when I saw the weekly chart it became apparent to me that I could actually trade this market today and certainly yesterday. There are times when you really have to go one time frame higher if you want clarity even though most of the time you'll probably look for a lower time frames for clarity but that doesn't apply when you're trying to find a trade on this current market in my opinion. but go ahead and look at it I'm not sure if it's going to break out to the higher time frame or not but it did give you a couple $1000 Target if we traded inside the range box.
Crude Oil Intraday View 04/12/2024As shown in the screenshot, Buy on BREAKOUT only or Sell on BREAKDOWN only for the marked targets. Blue Lines are Target/ Support & Resistance
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Oil: No monthly green candle following October inverted hammer November monthly continuation to the upside failed following October's monthly inverted hammer candle signaling bearishness into December
Last November daily candle signaled price in the process of going down so coming week should see further downside.
Price target is last's year low.
2024-12-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Bulls did what they had to, to prevent a flush down to 66. Market traded above 70 and we made a higher low. Bulls would need to print 71.5 for a higher high and I can’t see that happening as of now. Chop between 68 and 70 is most likely here.
comment : Midpoint of this triangle is around 69.3 and this will be a magnet until we either make higher highs or lower lows. It’s a trading range, don’t over analyze it.
current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 66 - 70
bull case: Bulls had a decent day and turned the market completely neutral again. Only above 71.5 they are favored for higher prices. For tomorrow I expect some more sideways price action between 69 and 70.5.
Invalidation is below 66.27
bear case : Bears need to keep it below 71.5 or we are making higher highs again. They tried to close below 68 for 4 days and today we saw bears giving up on it. Bears are still favored to keep it inside the triangle, so either play the range or don’t trade at all. Betting on a huge breakout is not a decent strategy after going sideways for so long.
Invalidation is above 71.5.
short term: Neutral inside the triangle. Area round 70.5 should be huge resistance.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have longed anywhere and made money. 1h 20ema is strong support until broken.
Crude OilUS Oil - Crude Oil
Descending Triangle as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
RSI - Divergence
Break of Structure
Demand Zone
Fibonacci Level - 61.80%
Could oil prices fall to $60?Could oil prices fall to $60?
This week, oil markets remained stable with WTI crude futures closing at $68.5 per barrel. Investors were alert to positive economic data from China and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.
Chinese manufacturing activity is reported to have picked up for the second consecutive month, at a faster pace than in the past five months, indicating a recovery in the world's largest oil importer. At the same time, Saudi Arabia announced a reduction in crude oil prices for Asian buyers starting in January, bringing them to their lowest level in four years.
The OPEC+ meeting that was originally scheduled for this week has been postponed, and further discussions are expected to be required before a decision on increased production is made.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also impacting the oil market.
Although there has been a ceasefire agreement, Israel has resumed attacks on Lebanon, and Iran is supporting the Syrian government after rebels took control of Aleppo, the country's largest city. In addition, there is concern that Saudi Arabia may increase production if other countries do not do the same to keep prices stable.
The OPEC issue is again at the center of discussions, with some countries trying to gain an advantage by producing more oil than agreed upon.
During a telematic meeting, OPEC representatives blamed Iraq for exceeding its daily production limit of 400,000 barrels in August according to data provided by S&P Global Ratings, and Kazakhstan, which expects to increase production due to the return of the Tengiz oil field to 720,000 barrels per day. “There is no point in adding new stocks if there is no demand for them in the market,” one of the representatives said during the call. “It is important that all states respect the agreements set by OPEC+ and keep quiet.” In recent months, oil prices have fallen by 9 percent across all major benchmarks.
Despite OPEC+'s efforts to stabilize oil markets, prices continue to fall. Although the group has proposed several extensions of production cuts, this has not prevented prices from falling further. According to IEA data, OPEC's market share has declined to 48 percent this year, down from 50 percent in 2023 and 51 percent in 2022.
Competition is expected to intensify next year, with projected increases in production in the United States, Guyana and Brazil, which could lead to an increase of more than 1 million barrels per day in global supply. Although Brazil joined OPEC+ this year, they have stated that they will not participate in production cuts to maintain their market share.
According to my forecast, we will see oil prices fall to new lows of around $60 in the coming quarters, with a possibility in 2025 of seeing prices even lower than $50 per barrel if a dispute within OPEC occurs.
The crude oil futures curve still shows a contango trend, which means it may be advantageous to consider instruments such as ETFs for long-term investing.
However, it is advisable to avoid direct investment in the oil stock sector at present, as the value of the dollar is strong and prices of companies in the sector are very high.
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Analysis of Crude Oil - Breakdown?
Analysis of Crude Oil (1-Hour Timeframe)
The chart shows crude oil trading within a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment in the short term. Price is currently consolidating near the lower trendline, showing potential for a pullback or a continuation.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
5,829 (55 EMA level): Immediate resistance to watch.
5,860: Upper trendline of the descending channel.
5,900: A breakout above this could signal bullish momentum.
Support Levels :
5,780: Current local support near the recent low.
5,720: Next critical level below if the downtrend continues.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout: If the price breaks above the descending channel and sustains above 5,860, it could rally towards 5,900 and beyond.
Bearish Continuation: Failure to break 5,829 and a move below 5,780 could push the price towards 5,720.
Risk Management: Set stop-loss orders to protect your position against unexpected price reversals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on available data and should not be considered financial advice. Always manage your risk responsibly.
Crude Oil Intraday View 03/12/2024As shown in the screenshot, Buy on BREAKOUT only or Sell on BREAKDOWN only for the marked targets.
View of Renko next to 30 min CRUDEOIL1!This is a view of CRUDEOIL1! with renko and 30 min candle with pivots
WTI ShortWyckoff Re distribution Process, showing Supply is trying to push de prince to Lower Prices
WTI Crude Oil 2024: Range-Bound Trends and Key LevelsBig Picture:
WTI Crude Oil Futures prices have been largely range-bound for most of 2024 with yearly low of 62.54 and high at 81.75 defining the trading range. Analyzing the Composite Volume Profile since January 2022 reveals that 2024’s price action has been contained within the Composite Value Area High (CVAH) at $79.91 and Composite Value Area Low (CVAL) at $63.57
We further note that while there are many bearish and bullish analyses for crude oil floating from different market analysts, market auction theory and charts point towards further range bound price action for December 2024 and foreseeable 2025 ahead until proven otherwise.
OPEC+ meeting is scheduled to take place on December 5th, 2024. It was previously planned to take place on Dec 1st, 2024. The change accommodates the Kuwait Summit, with Saudi Arabia and its allies expected to discuss production quotas—a decision that could influence market dynamics.
Additionally, U.S. crude oil production in 2024 has reached record-high levels.
Geopolitical issues have not had a major impact on Crude prices as prices remain range bound. Intraday volatility remains amidst geopolitical uncertainty.
WTI Crude Oil Key Levels:
CVAH : 79.91
CVAL : 63.57
2024 Yearly Mid : 72.15
2024 Yearly Lo : 62.54
2024 CVAH : 75.60
2024 CVAL : 66.97
Market Scenarios:
Short Term Resistance (2024 Mid and CVAH) : Price movements toward the upper range (CVAH at $79.91 or $75.60) could signal buyer exhaustion, with limited upside momentum expected.
Short Term Support (CVAL and Yearly Low) : Movements toward lower levels (CVAL at $63.57 or $66.97) may indicate seller exhaustion, preventing a significant breakdown.
As crude oil remains range-bound, traders should monitor these key levels and the OPEC+ meeting outcomes for potential catalysts. Until then, the market appears set to maintain its current trading range.
Disclaimer : The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
