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No. 11 Sugar FuturesNo. 11 Sugar FuturesNo. 11 Sugar Futures

No. 11 Sugar Futures

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On a sugar high, owing to weak supplySugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical hurdles owing to higher exports of soybean and corn could restrict supplies over the coming months thereby supporting sugar prices higher. Net speculative positioning on sugar is 139% above the 5-year average2. Over the past month, short positioning has declined 16% highlighting the improvement of sentiment on the sugar market. Weaker sugar supply from India India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) latest report indicate that Indian sugar production fell marginally to 28.2mt so far this season through 15 March3. ISMA cut its sugar production estimate for 2022/23 crop year to 33.5mn tons from 34.5mn tons on account of lower output and more use of sugarcane for biofuel. Sugarcane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing state, could end 45-60 days earlier than last year because heavy rainfall has reduced the availability of sugarcane. Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to total a mere 12.8mn tons according to the chief of State’s sugar commission, nearly 1mn tons less than previously anticipated. Lower sugar output is raising concerns that the India government could restrict additional exports. More use of sugar diverted to India’s Biofuel program At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing an aggressive biofuel program that will see more sugar cane diverted to make ethanol to help curb air pollution and reduce oil import bill. The biofuel program also lies in the interest of farmers by making use of excess local production and boosting their incomes. This season, the government plans to divert 5mn tons of sugar to make ethanol, up from 3.6mn tons a year earlier4. The eventual goal is to divert 6mn tons annually toward fuel production by 2025. Lower sugar production in Thailand remains price supportive for sugar Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar board confirmed that Thailand crushed 93.88mt of sugarcane in 2022/23, lower than the initial estimates for more than 100mt of cane5. As a result, the bumper crop expected in Thailand is also falling short, resulting in 2022/23 total sugar output in Thailand will be at around 11mn tons (versus the 12mn tons expected earlier in the season)5. Lower than expected output from Thailand combined with less supply from India remains price supportive for sugar. The front end of the sugar futures curve remains in backwardation yielding a positive roll yield of 2.9% reflecting tightness in the market for short term balances. Logistical bottlenecks could restrict supply from Brazil Looking ahead, progress of the sugar crop in the Centre- South region of Brazil remains a key headwind for sugar prices. Brazil sugar production is expected to be over 36.5mn tons in 2023/24, only slightly less than the all-time high of 38.4mn tons seen in the 2020/21 marketing year6. However, shipping Brazilian sugar could face delays in the Port of Santos as it competes with exports of other Brazilian grains such as corn and soybean. Road freight is also likely to face significant price increases. Santos terminals receive sugar and grains by trains and trucks. However, competition from transporting soybeans has been taking space away from sugar in train cars. Higher freight prices impact the margins of the mills. Likelihood of El Niño, if realised, remains price supportive for sugar With La Niña over, there is now a chance the Pacific Ocean surface could warm later this year and spark what is called El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the likelihood of an El Niño emerging between August and October to 74% from 61% a month ago. One common knock-on effect is higher precipitation volumes which would be positive for sugar prices over the medium term with fewer milling days and sugar production. El Niño could bring relief to drought parched areas of Argentina and southern US, but it could also lead to hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia and Australia. Conclusion Restricted supply from India alongside lower supply from Thailand have helped sugar along its upward journey so far. Looking ahead, with the Argentinian soybean crop forecasts struggling in the face of the ongoing drought, we expect Brazil to do a lot of the heavy lifting by offsetting the shortfall in supply of both soybean and corn. This is why, logistical hurdles are likely to impede the supply of Brazilian sugar thereby supporting sugar prices higher over the medium term.
ICEUS:SB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Sugar Futures March April Challange Hello my friends! How is going your trading week? I hope that is doing well, anyways lets talk about this operation! Bulish: We are preparing for a trend continuation after the break of the resistance level that we are currently in, for entrys we gonna wait a strong candle, a pattern cadle or something like that. Bearish: Here for the bearish operation we are waiting a retest in our candle, rejecting the resitance level and then going back to support, we gonna also pay attetion if the price after the retest in the resistance will not go directly to the next suport zone, but is gonna restest at a fib level.
ICEUS:SB1!
by CherPetitPrince
2
Sugar Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 23.86 Pivot: 21.89 Support: 21.02 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to rise from the pivot at 21.89 before heading towards the resistance at 23.86, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the overlap support at 21.02, slightly below where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Sugar Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 21.18 Pivot: 18.94 Support: 20.04 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 21.18, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the overlap support at 20.04, slightly below where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!
by Tickmill
Sugar Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 21.18 Pivot: 18.94 Support: 20.04 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 21.18, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the overlap support at 20.04, slightly below where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 21.18 Pivot: 18.94 Support: 19.30 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 19.30, slightly below where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up towards the resistance at 21.18, where the 5previous swing high is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!
by Tickmill
SB1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 20.10, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 20.49, slightly above where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and minor high is. Take profit will be at 18.94, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by VantageMarkets
Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 21.18 Pivot: 18.94 Support: 19.30 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 19.30, slightly below where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up towards the resistance at 21.18, where the 5previous swing high is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Jan 11,22-Sugar-Nice Selling SetupI'm a little late for this trade, but I feel it's not too too late. THis is the classic setup - you can see the recent high was 21 and the recent low is 19. Then price action bounced back up to hit 20 - the midway mark - If I had looked at this chart yesterday, I would have put a Sell Order in at 20 and I'd be in good shape already. Anyway, I put in a Sell ORder for 19.5. Obviously if price action continues to rise this week and it hits 20 again, I will move my Sell Order up to take advatage and sell at 20. Price should drop down to 18 or so by end of Jan. Heiko
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by HEIKOTradingSystem
Entering long in Sugar futures We have entered long in Sugar futures. This position is not validated with all the patterns of our TTW system, so the percentage of liquidity assigned to the series of positions is very low. Using our algorithmic trend-following system, Sugar futures are at 3-year highs, with an RSI of 63.57 on the weekly chart, and 65.64 on the monthly chart. The asset has broken one horizontal resistance and is above the 210, 70 and 14 SMAs, with a crossover between the 14 and 70 SMAs. We have targets around 24 in the coming months, but there is a high probability of a pullback. In the event of a pullback, we could re-enter. Position : Entry: Market price Guaranteed trailing stop loss: 0.4% of the portfolio. Target: 24-25. Financial Engineering: Futures (without OTC derivatives)
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by blockmas