Crude Oil (WTI) | Hidden Accumulation| (April 2025)Crude Oil (WTI) | Short Bias | Hidden Accumulation + Fib Target | (April 27, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
Money flow is exiting Crude Oil on the 4-hour chart, but price is holding steady — showing signs of hidden accumulation. A big move could be setting up soon!
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Short
Entry Zone: During ongoing consolidation phase with accumulation signals
Stop Loss: Below recent structural lows (adjust if lower timeframe support breaks)
TP1: $47.00 (based on Fibonacci retracement and extension analysis)
Partial Exits: Optional partials at internal Fibonacci levels leading up to $47
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Despite visible outflows, price remains stable — pointing toward iceberg orders on lower timeframes and broader accumulation on higher timeframes.
✅ Retail buying is visible, but the bigger story is in the hidden accumulation by larger players.
✅ Confirm with base volume, price structure, and indicator setups — momentum must match the thesis.
❌ Risk if structure breaks down below consolidation base — stops must protect against fakeouts.
4️⃣ Follow-up:
I will keep monitoring Crude Oil closely and update if we get a strong breakout confirming the move toward the $47 zone!
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QMQ2027 trade ideas
Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has also started to fluctuate recently. Yesterday's daily line finally began to decline. Crude oil is bearish in both the big and small trends. Continue to sell when it rebounds to the moving average. The crude oil pattern is still weak on the daily line. The current suppression position has begun to move down. Crude oil 61.68 is an opportunity to sell. The daily moving average has begun to rush down. Don't intercept it.
Fundamental analysis
Today, we will start to pay attention to the ADP data, as well as PCE data and EIA crude oil inventory data.
Operation suggestions
Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00
WTI: Break It or Bounce ItIf other cyclical asset classes are rallying like a global recession can be avoided, then why shouldn’t crude oil? Yes, there are reports OPEC+ may increase output again, and we know Donald Trump wants lower prices, but those factors should already be priced in. The true swing factor is demand—and if it’s not about to fall in a heap, why should crude?
We’ve now seen three violent rallies from beneath $57.30, including when the level was established in early 2021. If price were to return to those levels in the near-term, it could offer a decent swing trade. Longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection, targeting a run back to $60.45, a minor level that acted as both support and resistance in April. If that were to give way, a move towards key resistance at $65.27 could follow.
Another option would be to wait for a sustained push above $60.45, allowing longs to be established on the break with a stop beneath, targeting $65.27. Of the two setups, this one screens as higher risk given how lightly $60.45 has been tested.
Momentum remains with the bears, which normally favours selling rips over buying dips. But in these headline-driven markets, that signal may not carry its usual weight. For what it’s worth, downside momentum is easing for now.
A close beneath $57.30 would invalidate the countertrend bullish setup.
Good luck!
DS
Oil Price Rebound UnravelsThe price of oil may continue to give back the rebound from the monthly low ($54.46) as it extends the decline from the start of the week.
The price of oil starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows as it snaps the range bound price action from last week, with a move/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region bringing the 2023 low ($52.24) on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around $49.10 (100% Fibonacci extension), but lack of momentum to move/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of gold back towards the weekly high ($63.92).
Need a close above $64.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to bring the $70.80 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 72.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around the February high ($74.30).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
#202517 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market went nowhere past week so nothing changed from my last weeks update. Bulls want to retest the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears reversing below the 50% retracement of the bear trend that started in January. I do not have an opinion on where the breakout will happen, I can see it going both ways.
current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again
key levels: 55 - 69
bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target. Nothing changed in this.
Invalidation is below 60.
bear case: Bears have going for them that they stopped the bounce at the breakout area and under the 50% retracement, which is very important for them. If they get a daily close below 60, we could go lower again but until then it’s a clear trading range 60-52. Market is neutral for me, despite not going above the 50% retracement.
Invalidation is a daily close above 65.
short term: Neutral 60-65, bullish above for 69 and bearish below for 55.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
Nothing happened the past week so no better update on this. Will tariffs likely or are they already dampening consumption? Most likely. Will this be reflected in Oil demand in the near term? No fucking clue. Chart is in a bear trend but at such a huge support for so many years, I doubt we go much lower but we could range here for longer.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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MCX Crude Oil Hourly PredictionAs shown in the attached chart, MCX Crude Oil performed well under 1 hourly chart always.
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Selling CL based in line with daily bearish trendI did video analysis yesterday. I was looking to short CL which provided short entry in NY AM session however bounced back forming inside bar on daily chart. Today CL swept the liquidity above Daily inside bar high and reversed forming a breaker on 15M chart. I still expect yesterday's discussed idea and move to happen with target of big bearish Wednesday Daily candle low.
Planning for the Next Trade in Crude OilNYMEX:CL1!
Key Levels – Higher Timeframe:
• 2025 High: 78.56
• Yearly Open (2025): 69.64
• 2025 mCVPOC: 71.83
• Yearly VWAP: 68.41
• AVWAP from Yearly Highs: 67.71
• 2025 mCVAL: 65.28
• March 2025 Low: 64.37
• 2024 Low: 59.91
April 2025 Key Levels:
• April mCVAL: 58.79
• April mCVPOC: 60.94
• April AVWAP from Lows: 61.29
• April AVWAP from Highs: 61.76
• April mCVAH: 63.73
Our previous trade idea played out as expected. With updated levels now in place, we aim to reassess the market context without falling into recency or confirmation bias. These biases often lead to an overly bearish outlook at market lows, especially amid ongoing headlines around trade war tensions and supply concerns. While such fundamentals are important, maintaining objectivity is key.
This leads us to the central question: Is all this bearish sentiment already priced in? If so, why are sellers still dominant?
From a broader perspective, the overall context for crude remains bearish. However, this does not imply an immediate continuation to lower prices.
Currently, price is trading below both the midpoint of 2025 and that of 2024. Additionally, the recent price swing failed at the March 2025 low—an important technical rejection. The 2024 low at 59.91 now serves as key structural support. We anticipate further consolidation within the April 2025 value range, specifically between mCVAH (63.73) and mCVAL (58.79).
We define the area between April’s mCVPOC (60.94) and AVWAPs (61.29 / 61.76) as a "noise zone"—a region where price action is likely to be choppy and directionless. This zone is not favorable for directional trades.
Potential Trade Setup – Range-Bound Play
Example Trade 1: Long Crude Oil
• Entry: 59.91
• Stop: 59.20
• Target: 61.76
• Risk: 71 ticks
• Reward: 185 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.6R
Example Trade 2: Long Crude Oil
• Entry: 58.80
• Stop: 58.20
• Target: 61.76
• Risk: 60 ticks
• Reward: 296 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.93 R
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations.
• Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management.
• Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels.
• AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
ATH: All time high
VPOC: Volume Point of Control
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price
Green Zones: Bull/ Buyers support zones
Red Zones: Bear/Seller resistance zones
Crude oil---sell near 63.00, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
The recent crude oil daily line has also begun to decline. Yesterday, the daily line closed negative, and the selling began to decline. Today's idea is to consider selling opportunities near the rebound of 63.00. Crude oil continues to be bearish. No matter the fundamentals or technical aspects, there is no sign of bullishness. Today, crude oil is expected to fluctuate and fall. Don't chase the rebound. We are considering it. In addition, crude oil will also close the monthly line. Pay attention to its monthly line.
Fundamental analysis:
This week is a data week. Starting from Wednesday, big data will be released one by one. In addition, continue to pay attention to the situation of the US dollar and the changes in tariff policies.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 63.00, target 60.00-58.00
Gold silver coffee TeslaThis is March 23rd. there was a great setup for the reversal in gold which should have been expected.... and it looks like it's coming down to support where the market had gapped higher originally. when gold traded lower it took out a whole bunch of breakout buyers.... now we need the weight and see if new buyers will be entering the gold market. and this would have been a very easy short yesterday for the gold market and an easy continuation as the market traded lower today where we may find some buyers. silver is in a unique way more interesting than the gold because there's a chance that it could trade higher enough that that would trigger buyers to go long anticipating the possibility that the market could go to the all-time high of 50. coffee looks pretty good for a continuation higher there was a good trade location to go long on coffee yesterday. I think Tesla's probably a great Buy with a high potential to go substantially higher.... I would not be surprised if we learn someday that Elon Musk bought more shares of Tesla anticipating that the market is that a support and will go considerably higher in a market that would look weak to traders who don't understand opportunity. Elon was the victim of political manipulation with no real problems with his cars.... sales were down but the politicians with large amounts of capital put pressure on Tesla to lower.
Crude Oil Is Making Hard Work of Gains into ResistanceCride oil may have recovered back above $60, but it is making hard work of it. And with resistance looming and large specs increasing short bets, perhaps a pullback due. But does that mean a break below $60 is imminent?
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index
Order Flow + Market Structure = Holy Trading BibleYes, I know there's a million strategies out there. All profitable, all suck. It really comes down to comprehension of the basics and that particular strategy, the patience and discipline to wait for that set up to present itself, and lastly, the focus and calmness to manage your trade effectively, all the way to take profit.
Case In Point
Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis:
Recently, crude oil has been running up. Yesterday, the daily line had a technical retracement under the pressure of 65.00. Today, we are still bearish. Let's continue to sell when it rebounds. There is still a lot of room for crude oil to fall. Today's crude oil rebounded near 64.00 and sold. If it breaks below 60.00, it will open up a new space for a big drop. The recent data and fundamentals of crude oil are suppressing it. Buy today and expect a big rebound.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
Looking to sell CLI'm looking to sell CL futures based on yesterdays' price action on daily chart which suggests that we might see the next leg down in line with Daily downtrend.
Looking to short pending one more move higher to take equal highs created in early London session and looking for breaker lower to structure logic stop loss and sufficient R:R.
Planning the Trade: Crude Oil Scenarios in a Shifting Macro LandNYMEX:CL1!
In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil prices traded negative for the first time, and we have yet another volatile April.
"If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail." Preparation is essential before taking on the market head-on.
Many participants choose to stay on the sidelines when volatility exceeds 1 standard deviation. Others, however, see this as an opportunity—adapting their risk per trade, adjusting targets, and refining trade management. Reducing position size can be an effective way to manage periods of heightened volatility.
This Week's Trade Idea: Crude Oil
We'll be reviewing Crude Oil price action with updated levels, fresh insights, and framing a trade plan with an example idea for reference.
Key Levels:
• April Monthly Open: 70.75
• 2025 mCVPOC: 71.13
• Yearly Open: 69.64
• 2024 Mid: 69.52
• 2025 Developing Mid: 66.52
• 2025 mCVAL: 65.08
• March 2025 Low: 64.37
• 2022 CVAL: 61.60
• 2024 Low: 59.91
The recent announcement of reciprocal tariffs, coupled with OPEC+ production plans (though scheduled earlier), and the rising uncertainty around a possible recession, have collectively weighed on demand expectations—resulting in a significant decline in oil prices. Although the 2024 low was reclaimed and prices have remained above this level, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain.
Scenario 1: Push Higher Towards 2025 Mid
In this scenario, we anticipate prices closing above March lows. Price then pushes higher toward the 2025 developing mid-range, re-entering the 2025 micro composite value area (mCVA).
Example Trade Idea:
• Timeframe: Hourly
• Setup: Wait for a candle close above March lows. Look for a pullback reaction off the 2025 Value Area Low (VAL).
• Entry: 64.50
• Stop: 64.00
• Target: 66.50
• Risk: 50 ticks
• Reward: 200 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4R
________________________________________
Scenario 2: Range-Bound Price Action
In this scenario, the March low acts as strong resistance, aligning with the 2025 mCVAL. Price reverts lower towards the 2022 CVAL.
Example Trade Idea:
• Setup: Watch for signs of buyer exhaustion near March lows. If sellers regain control, look for a move back down toward 2022 CVAL.
• Timeframe: Hourly
• Entry: 64.00
• Stop: 64.40
• Target: 62.00
• Risk: 40 ticks
• Reward: 200 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 5R
________________________________________
Important Notes:
These are example trade ideas provided for educational purposes and are not intended as trade recommendations. Traders should perform their own analysis and thorough preparation before entering any positions.
Please be aware that stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at the specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
________________________________________
Glossary:
• VA: Value Area
• VPOC: Volume Point of Control
• VAL: Value Area Low
• C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.)
• mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)
Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of April 21 - 25th.
Oil has made a classic bearish impulse down, then a corrective retracement. The natural expectation is another impulse down. The fact that price pulled back into a W -FVG allows for this bearish expectation.
Wait for a bearish break of market structure to confirm a valid sell setup... and trade accordingly. No confirmation, not trade!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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CrudeOil climax rise or more to blast upsidePrice chart read from 2022 High to recent low. All depiction marked as per #ElliottWave, #Supplu-Demand & #Liquidity concept. Price action of 1-2 week will be clear indication of which way its going to unfold. More Bullish if closing above given level or its going to form a important top.
Crude Oil - Bearish longer term biasCrude has recently broken its multi-year support level at $67. A retracement back toward that level is probable to cap any upside. The aligning overhead previous POC, Fib, and bearish descending wedge breakout argues for further continued weakness over the medium term.
The longer term target level of $45 coincides with previous resistance following the all time lows rebound in 2020, and also an untested POC at ~$43.75.