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QM1! trade ideas

$CL Bull Trap?If history has taught me anything it is this... "They'll make the chart look as bullish as possible before the rug" And when I look at this chart, my immediate reaction is bullish. But upon closer inspection I see some warning signs. 1.) $85.9 seems to be incredibly important. More importantly, we are below, and failing yet another retest of it. 2.) I have this idea of "springboards," its the idea that below support and above resistance there is a number offering support/resistance in each retest. In this case $82.09. It's when this number ultimately fails that you get the bigger move. Ex. Sell $85.9 OR break of $82.09 The R:R is sharply to the downside. But timing is everything here. If wrong, $102.4 target, if right $53.11 target.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by mandelsc
Sell the News in Crude? Crude Oil (August) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.33, down 0.83 WTI Crude Oil futures violated the first of a series of major three-star supports early this morning at 82.04-82.46 but have so far responded to the next pocket in proximity at 81.66-81.71. Despite the constructive nature of recent price action, we are reducing our more Bullish Bias in order to see this near-term consolidation play out. While we remain bullish, at these elevated levels, we fear April’s technical resistance, a near-term 'sell the news' on Hurricane Beryl, eroding economic data, a narrative of rising production, and domestic political headwinds. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook is due at 11:00 am CT, the private API survey is released at 3:30 pm CT, and inflation data is expected from China at 8:30 pm CT. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 82.82-82.86**, 83.16-83.45**, 83.69-83.88***, 84.38-84.52***, 85.27*** Pivot: 82.04-82.46*** Support: 81.66-81.71***, 80.97-81.21***, 79.90-80.18**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Good follow through by the bears and a clear break below the bull channel. If we continue down from here, I would be surprised. More likely is another retest from the bulls to 83/84. Selling is strong enough that we have a decent chance of 84.52 being the high of this bull trend that’s now over and we are in a trading range at the highs. Odds strongly favor the bears since we are in a huge triangle. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 80 - 84 bull case: Bulls failed at the 1h 20ema multiple times today but held it above 82 which means we are forming a smaller descending triangle which will likely break out early tomorrow. Retest of the bull channel to 83.5 is reasonable. Invalid below 82. bear case: Bears showed strength by consecutive decent bear bars on the daily chart. They want the 1h 20ema to be resistance as long as possible and their next target is the daily 20ema at 81.2ish which is also the recent trading range and a magnet. short term: Two bear trend lines which can both work and we will only find out tomorrow. Market should stay below 82.9 if bears are in control. If bulls break above, can see 83.4/84 again. So looking for shorts near 1h 20ema and upper bear trend lines. Long scalps above 83. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: Small short initiated and will add on higher if necessary. Plan to hold this to at least 76 with profit taking/adding on in between. trade of the day: Look at all the bars with a tail above 82.7. That’s more than enough reason and time to place some shorts because market is screaming at you, that bulls are not strong enough above 82.7.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bears last stand is 84 and my choppy outlook was drawn 3 or 4 weeks ago. My outlook is the same as last weeks. More sideways movement under 84 needed until bears give up or bulls strongly break above again and we will then most certainly see 86 fast and decent chance this time they get to 90 again. I lean slightly bearish. Quote from last week: comment: High of the week was 82.72, so 22 ticks above my lower bull target. Most was said in my tl;dr. Bulls trying to break above 82 but can’t a one single daily close above that price. Market will also break out soon. After last week, I see this as 50/50 who get’s the breakout. comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern. current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel. key levels: 80-86 bull case: Another breakout for the bulls but the volume is increasing and the selling pressure is building. If bulls can keep this long enough above 80, bears might give up again and the trend could continue but it’s hard to argue after 3 pushes up and the clear triangle pattern on higher tf. Invalidation is below 81.3. bear case: Bears want this to be a lower high since market has been doing this for 2 years now. April high was 86.27 so there is your sl if you want to short this. I do think bears want to break the bull channel first, put in another retest of 84ish for a tripple top or head & shoulders before they sell more aggressively again. They see this bull trend with the 3 pushes as done and now they want to get back below 75 again. You play the best pattern on the highest time frame because the higher the time frame the more reliable the pattern is. If multiple pattern on multiple tf align, even better. On a 1h chart we are also forming bull wedges which can break to the downside any day now. Invalidation is above 86.27. outlook last week: “short term: Still slightly favoring the bulls because of the highers highs and higher lows but breakout above need to happen next week. Once we hit 83/84, I think next 10 points will be made to the down side again.” → Last Sunday we traded 81.54 and now we are at 83.16. High was 84.52 and I gave you 84. +246 if you will. Hope you made some. short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. current swing trade: Will short once we break the bull channel and we see decent selling pressure. chart update: Removed the bull wave series but all bearish patterns were drawn 2-3 weeks ago.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil Prices Forecast: Key Supply Zone and Potential DowntrendThis week, oil prices are poised to make a move towards the supply zone between $84.14 and $84.50 per barrel. However, this level is likely to pose significant resistance, making it challenging for prices to sustain an upward trajectory. Here’s a detailed outlook based on current market dynamics and my trading strategy. OPEC+ Production Cuts and Market Impact Early June saw OPEC+ extend its 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) production cuts to the end of 2025. Additionally, another 2.2 million bpd cut was announced, extending to the end of September 2024. Together, these cuts comprise around 5-6% of global oil demand. Despite these measures, Brent oil prices have struggled to break the key $90 per barrel level since last September. This signals that even with significant production cuts, the market faces substantial resistance to higher prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia's Fiscal Challenges The two major players in the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia, are under considerable fiscal pressure. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has a fiscal breakeven oil price of $96.17 per barrel, and it is battling a projected budget deficit this year. This financial strain is exacerbated by historical overspending on social and infrastructure projects, as well as hefty dividend commitments from the Aramco IPO. Technical Analysis: Supply Zone Resistance With oil prices heading towards the supply zone of $84.14 to $84.50, traders should be prepared for potential selling opportunities. At this zone, prices are expected to encounter strong resistance, making it a critical area to monitor for reversals. Trading Strategy: Short Positions and Downtrend Potential In my trading strategy, I will be looking for new supply zones on the 5-minute timeframe within the $84.14 to $84.50 range. This short-term analysis will help identify precise entry points for short positions. Given the anticipated resistance at this supply zone, a significant push to the downside is expected. Targeting 180 Ticks Downside Move If we catch the right move, there is potential to capture at least 180 ticks to the downside. The substantial fiscal pressures on major oil producers, combined with the technical resistance in the supply zone, support a bearish outlook once prices reach this level. Conclusion This week, watch for oil prices to test the supply zone between $84.14 and $84.50 per barrel. Prepare for potential short-selling opportunities in this range, as resistance is likely to trigger a substantial downward move. By leveraging short-term supply zone analysis, traders can position themselves to benefit from an anticipated decline, potentially capturing significant downside ticks. Stay tuned to market developments and adjust your strategies accordingly to make the most of these trading opportunities.
NYMEX:MCLQ2024Short
by yojavi
Bold prediction: Short CL??Oil has been ripping. That is clear. But has it ripped too much? Election coming. No way Biden doesn't do whatever he can to make oil cheap before election. Currently at a triangle resistance hidden as a downtrend breakout. Strong resistance at $84. 2 of past 3 days saw some selling pressure. Expectation: If we start to break down I'm looking for $79-$80 for first target. Breakout of $84 with volume could hit $88. Must be aware of price action going into these levels. Trading levels alone is not enough. Trade carefully friends.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BartChartski
75: Decline in Oil Tankers to China Signals Weaker DemandThe number of oil tankers heading to China has dropped to its lowest in nearly two years, indicating weaker demand in the world's second-largest economy. Bloomberg reports only 86 supertankers en route over the next three months, the lowest since August 2022. Current Scenario: After holding $70 on the weekly chart, oil prices are attempting to reach new highs around $90. This movement suggests bullish momentum as the market reacts to shifting demand dynamics. Bearish Scenario: If oil prices fail to maintain momentum and drop below the recent low, we could see a trend reversal. Key support to watch is around $60, where buyers might step in again. Bullish Scenario: If oil prices break above $90, we could target $100 as the next major resistance level. Sustained bullish momentum would be necessary for this upward move, potentially driven by improving economic indicators or geopolitical factors.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by SeventyFive-Invest
LCRUDE celebrates its continued rise after the 4th of JulyThis day is Non-Farm Payrolls release day. U.S. employment growth has shown a slowdown with the unemployment rate holding steady at around 4% which gives the Fed room to control inflation without risk of recession. Today's Friday showing that annual wage growth is rising at its slowest pace in three years could put inflation on track to rise with Fed tightening. Jerome Powell this week made it appear that the country is on a "disinflationary path" and experiencing a "soft landing." During the Asian session, oil prices have traded virtually unchanged and on track for a fourth consecutive week of gains heading towards end-April levels. Hopes of increased winter demand and supply have been pushing Brent up 7% in recent weeks and West Texas Intermediate up 9%. Yesterday the US session was closed for its 4th of July celebration with little trading and no settlement for WTI. The bullish sentiment has been supported by intensifying geopolitical tension in the Middle East. US consumption expectations are high during the summer and hence oil has remained bullish.In addition, inventory data showed a severe drawdown of 12.2 million barrels against expectations of 700,000 barrels.In addition, Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil will reduce their exports from the Black Sea this month. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has already started to cut the price of its Arab Light crude which will sell to Asia for $1.80/bbl, above the Oman/Dubai average which puts pressure on OPEC producers as supply increases outside the grouping.Looking at the chart since February this year, WTI (Ticker AT: LCrude) has formed a range moving between $87.19 and $70.59.At the moment, the bell shape has a triple structure with the checkpoint zone (POC) very much centered at $81. The RSI is currently oversold at 49.26% so a search to highs this summer would not be uncommon.The breakout zone at the highs is complicated, because of the selling debate between suppliers and it is most likely to see a continuation in the same range. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
LLong
by ActivTrades
Crude Oil BullishCrude breaking daily chart trendline and showing a U shape breakout. Everything Points to testing previous highs and price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Not sure what could be the catalyst but there is the beginning of a repeating pattern from last June. Key resistance is at 85-87 and if price can push past this level its likely that a retest of support levels of 84 before a continuation higher. The next magnetic level after 85 is at the bearish order block level at 94.5.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by supertokki52
Can we SHORT OIL from Daily Supply Zone / 78.5% Daily Fib Level?NYMEX:CL1! "The One Most Adaptable to Change is the One that Survives." -Charles Darwin As I've been paying close attention to OIL, we may have an opportunity to go SHORT from this un-Mitigated HTF Daily Supply Zone / 78.5% Daily Fib. Level.... 1) What I'll be looking for is for buyers to push price up into this Daily Supply Zone and hit $83.00 Per Barrel which would be the EQ Level of the Overall Daily Supply Zone and this pricing would line up perfectly with the Daily Fib. Level 78.5% Kill-Zone!! 2) Now if we can see buyers push price up into these levels ($83.15) Per Barrel, then I'll drop down to a LTF 5-15m Confirmation entry to SHORT and Target 62.0% Daily Fib. Level ($80.85) Per Barrel. Roughly around +230 points in our favor SHORT! 3) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by TreyHighPwr
Crude Oil Analysis and Investment StrategyTechnical Analysis Price Action: Current Price: $83.14 The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern forming over the past year, indicating a potential breakout soon. The price is currently testing the upper boundary of this triangle, suggesting that a breakout could be imminent. Moving Averages: The 20-month simple moving average (SMA) at $60.84 is well below the current price, indicating a long-term bullish trend. Volume: Volume trends show steady trading interest, which is typical before a significant price movement. Fundamental Analysis Market Supply and Demand: Supply: OPEC+ has announced plans to gradually unwind output cuts, which could increase supply in the market. However, this will be contingent on market conditions, and adjustments may be made based on demand​ (IEA)​​ (IEA)​. Demand: Global oil demand growth has been adjusted lower for 2024, reflecting a modest increase of 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025. This subdued outlook is due to weaker economic growth, an expanding electric vehicle (EV) fleet, and efficiency gains​ (IEA)​. Inventories: Recent reports indicate that global oil inventories have been building, with significant increases in on-land stocks. This suggests a well-supplied market, which might pressure prices in the short term​ (IEA)​​ (EIA Homepage)​. Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical tensions and regulatory policies, especially those affecting major oil producers and consumers like the U.S. and China, can significantly impact crude oil prices. For instance, ongoing geopolitical risks have supported prices despite higher inventories​ (YCharts)​. Economic Indicators: U.S. crude oil production is forecasted to grow by 2% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, setting new records. This increase in production, primarily from the Permian Basin, will add to the supply side pressures​ (EIA Homepage)​. Investment Strategy Buy Scenario: Entry Point: Consider buying if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle, confirming a breakout. A confirmed breakout above $85 with strong volume would be an ideal entry point. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just below the breakout point, around $78, to limit downside risk. Take Profit: Target the previous high around $100. If the breakout sustains, further upside could be expected towards $110. Sell Scenario: Entry Point: Consider selling if the price fails to break out and falls below the lower boundary of the triangle, indicating a breakdown. A confirmed breakdown below $78 with increasing volume would be a signal to sell. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just above the breakdown point, around $83, to limit potential losses. Take Profit: Target the next support level around $70. If the bearish trend continues, prices could further decline towards $65. Conclusion Crude oil presents a compelling investment opportunity with potential for significant movement either way due to the current technical setup and fundamental factors. Monitoring key price levels and volume will be crucial in deciding the right moment to enter or exit the market. The market is well-supplied with a cautious demand outlook, but geopolitical and economic factors could drive volatility and provide trading opportunities.
NYMEX:CL1!
by PTD85536
Crude Oil "Triangle Pattern" Target 7100 and "Wolf Wave Target"A "Triangle Pattern" has formed in Crude Oil and Downtrend has "Breakout". So market is Bullish Trend. And the Target is Triangle's Top Trendline at INR 7100. Additionally, Expect a Breakout of the Triangle Pattern. Don't miss the "Wolf Wave Target" Opportunity. If Breakout the Triangle Pattern, then the Next 2nd Target is Wolf Wave. Refer to the below image for Wolf Wave Target Achieved in Ethereum. Guess 3rd Target ??? I want to help people Make Profit all over the "World". Additionally, I am Eager to Receive Money form Worldwide because of my Potential. Thank you
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by SasikumarMani
Re-Test Zone Held: Bullish Momentum Signals Time to BuyOil has successfully tested and held the key re-test zone between $82.40 and $82.90, breaking structure to the upside and signaling a strong continuation of the uptrend. With this confirmation, the market appears ready to advance towards $85 per barrel. For those already in the market, now is an opportune moment to consider buying opportunities based on your trading strategy. Whether you trade using Supply and Demand principles, moving averages, or any other technical approach, this bullish momentum presents a favorable environment. Crude oil futures have been bolstered by a confluence of factors, including geopolitical risks, seasonal demand expectations, and potential inventory draws. The initial drop earlier this year following OPEC+ production cuts has been reversed, and prices are now holding above $80 per barrel as traders anticipate further upward movement. As always, it's essential to trade responsibly and base your decisions on thorough analysis and understanding of the market. If you see the same bullish signals that I do, this could be a prime opportunity to capitalize on the anticipated rise to $85 per barrel. However, trading comes with inherent risks, and it's important to take full responsibility for your trades. Keep an eye on market developments and be ready to adjust your strategy as needed. The potential for substantial moves towards the upside is strong, but ensure that your decisions align with your own analysis and risk tolerance. Happy trading!
NYMEX:MCLQ2024Long
by yojavi