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E-mini Light Crude Oil Futures

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QM1! trade ideas

Crude Compression, Flagging Into Fire or FailureCrude Oil has been grinding higher within a clean rising wedge (bearish flag), forming within the aftermath of a strong sell-off. Price is now testing a key Intraday Fair Value Gap (1H FVG) inside a broader HTF Macro Supply Zone, while respecting a steep trend line of support. This structure sets up a textbook decision point. Continuation toward macro liquidity or reversal and breakdown. Bearish Setup (Primary Thesis) Rejection off the Intraday FVG (1H) or Macro Supply Zone. Close below green trend line with momentum/volume Bearish Entries: Entry #1 (Aggressive): $69.90–$70.10 → wick rejection inside FVG Entry #2 (Conservative): $68.20 → trendline break + close below Stop Loss Options: Tight SL: $70.80 (above intraday FVG) Wide SL: $72.50 (above macro supply zone) Bearish TPs: TP1: $67.00 → channel low TP2: $65.00 → mitigation zone TP3: $64.00 → FVG fill + prior swing low (final target) The Ideal setup: FVG rejection + trend line break + aggressive follow-through = hold for full breakdown. Bullish Setup (Alternate Scenario) Clean breakout + 1H/4H candle close above Intraday FVG. Break and retest of channel top as new support. Price holds above $70.50 with strength Bullish Entry: Breakout & retest at $70.10–$70.30 Stop Loss: Below FVG/demand pocket: $68.30 Bullish TPs: TP1: $72.50 → prior swing high TP2: $74.00 → macro trendline test TP3: $77.00 → macro liquidity sweep Best setup: breakout + retest with increasing volume and no rejection at macro supply. My Summary: Bias. - Bearish (Primary) Structure - Bearish flag within HTF downtrend Price Action - Testing overhead supply + intraday FVG Volatility - Constricted, ripe for breakout Risk Level - Low-risk entries near supply or trend line Model Tag - Mean Reversion Rejection / Momentum Breakdown This is a high-probability setup with clear invalidation on both sides. Use a confirmation based approach to reduce drawdown and avoid fake outs. Plan your entries based on how price reacts at this decision zone. Be patient the cleanest trade may be on the second move, not the first. Happy Trading everyone.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by stakkd
Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has not moved much, but it Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has not moved much, but it is a good short-term operation opportunity. Sell small when it rebounds, sell big when it rebounds. Crude oil will basically not trap you. It is difficult to end the selling in the short term. It will basically decline in the future. You can sell when it rebounds near 67.00 today. If it breaks 64.00, it will directly dive. The daily line of crude oil has formed a shock pattern. You can sell at the break position of 64.00. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
CRUDE OIL PULLS BACK AND RE-ENTERS BUY ZONE!Hey Traders so looking at Crude Oil today still showing signs of strength. I think it's still bullish because Dollar is still showing weakening signs at the moment. Plus a few daily closes above $68. Also we are still in Summer which is normally a Seasonally Bullish time for Crude and energies. Not to mention still lots of uncertainty as always. 🙄 So I say if your bullish continue to buy in the zone $64.80-$66.00 place stop under support around 63.50 which looks like it could be safe place to not get stopped out. However if bearish wait for close below 63.50 before selling the rally. Or better wait until September when the Seasonally Weak period begins in energy markets. Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TradeTheIndex
Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been falling recently, but the decline is not large, and the rebound will not be large. Consider selling crude oil if it rebounds slightly. The crude oil idea is bearish. It is difficult for crude oil to rise sharply without fundamentals, but we insist on taking losses in operation. If there is no loss, a piece of news will make it take off directly. Crude oil focuses on 64.00 support, and suppresses 67.50 and 69.50. Consider selling opportunities when the Asian session rebounds to 67.50. Fundamental analysis: Tariffs have not affected the market recently, and no major news has been announced. The market is relatively calm. Operational suggestions: Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil-----sell near 66.00, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent daily crude oil line has been fluctuating slightly. It is still bearish to sell at a high price. Crude oil is unlikely to rebound or rise sharply without fundamental support. The hourly crude oil suppression position is 66.40 and 67.50. Today we are close to 66.00 to consider selling opportunities. The daily moving average of crude oil is starting to go down. If 64.00 is broken, it will start to fall sharply. Operational suggestions Crude oil-----sell near 66.00, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude Oil- Bull Flag formation Trade PlanNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! Big Picture: Let the price action and market auction be your guide What has the market done? The market has consolidated and pushed higher. There is an excess high at 67.87 from July 14th RTH. Market pushed lower, leaving behind excess with single prints above this showcasing strong area of resistance. What is it trying to do? The market is accepting prices in this range and building value. It has been in price discovery mode with a multi-distribution profile since June 24th. How good of a job is it doing? The market is currently forming a bull flag formation and attempting to push higher on the hourly time-frame. What is more likely to happen from here? Key Levels: Neutral Zone 1: 67.16-67 Neutral Zone 2 : 66.45-66.30 Yearly Open: 66.34 Neutral zone 3 : 65.23-65.03 2025- Mid Range : 64.14 Scenario 1: False break, pull back and push higher In this scenario, we expect prices to attempt to break bull flag formation, fail, however, neutral zone 3, acts as support for buyers to step back in to push prices towards yearly open and neutral zone 2. Scenario 2: Break but fail to sustain push higher In this scenario, we expect prices to break out of bull flag formation, however, fail around the 66 zone. Price reverts lower towards neutral zone 3 to further consolidate.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has started a new contract. The new contract is still not moving much at present, and the contract spread is not much. The daily line has begun to decline. Today's idea is to sell at a rebound of 67.50. The suppression position is 67.50 and 69.00, and the support is around 64.00. If this position is broken, there will be a greater room for decline. Fundamental analysis: There is no major news in the recent fundamentals. The situation in the Middle East is still relatively stable. There is no new rest on tariffs, and the impact on the market is limited. Operational suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Pre-Market Prep 7.18.2025What it do, everyone! Here’s my pre-market prep for Friday, July 18th. Just to give you a quick overview, I'm using my prior value areas, the prior day's high and low, and the CVA levels from my market profile. I use all this history to help me plan my trades for the day. So, starting with the S&P, as of now we’re green across the board. We’re in balance up from the prior day’s range, value area, and the CVA. My main plan is to look for acceptance and a pullback to a confluence area for longs. If we get rotational and break out of that area, I’m ready to go short. For the NASDAQ, it's a similar story. We’re rotational in the prior value area and range, but we’re balanced up from the recent CVA. Right now, I’m waiting to see if we can confirm acceptance and then I’ll look for a short from that rotational area down to the prior value area low. In the Russell, I’m seeing clear acceptance above all levels, so a pullback to the confluence area for a long would be ideal. For Gold, I’m also seeing it in balance up on all fronts. My first move would be a long from the prior day’s high. If we drop a bit lower, I’ll be looking at that CVA and PVA area for another long. The Euro is a bit more mixed. We’re rotational in the prior day’s range but balanced up in the value area and CVA. I want to clear the prior day’s high before taking any big moves. The Yen is also rotational, so I’m looking to trade the extremes, maybe some scalps while we’re balanced in the prior value area. For the Aussie Dollar, we’re in balance up from the PVA, but rotational in the prior day’s range and CVA. I’m looking for shorts near the top area and longs at the bottom, staying out of the middle for now. And finally, Crude Oil is rotational on all fronts. My first plan is to look for shorts from the confluence area down to the prior day’s range. That’s my pre-market prep for today. Let’s trade smart. Happy Friday, peace!
NYMEX:CL1!
by JBradleyTrades
Crude oil-----Sell near 66.80, target 65.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent crude oil daily line began to decline, but a small V appeared last night, which was also caused by the situation in the Middle East. Israel bombed Syria and crude oil began to rebound. Overall, crude oil is still bearish. We consider continuing to sell it when it rebounds. It has not broken near 64.00, and it is difficult to form a large unilateral. The suppression position is near 66.80. Consider selling it near it. Fundamental analysis: Trump’s dissatisfaction with Powell has not been a day or two. Conflict is inevitable, and the impact on gold is also short-term. Yesterday’s pull-up and dive is a case in point. Operational suggestions Crude oil-----Sell near 66.80, target 65.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
MCL Just RAN the Highs and Died. Beautiful. You ever watch price grind into a supply zone like it’s got no clue what's coming, then slap the trend line like it owes it money? That’s what MCL did this morning. It ran the previous day high, tapped into a juicy supply zone, gave us a textbook order block rejection and I said, “bet.” I’m not here for 300 IQ Fibonacci spirals or Jupiter retrograde entries I just want clean structure, manipulated highs, and a breakdown that pays the bills. Let’s dig in. Setup Overview (15-Min Chart) Bias: Bearish Setup Type: Liquidity Run ➝ OB Retest ➝ Trend Continuation Context & Narrative: PDH (67.01) was swept early. Liquidity grab? Price got yeeted from supply after faking momentum. We got a clean Order Block Retest at 66.59, respecting the descending EMA and HTF structure. Entry Structure: - Entry - 66.39 Retest rejection + momentum shift - TP1 - 66.10 Intra-day structure low - TP2 - 65.80 Demand zone front-run - PDL - 65.40 Potential deeper fade if momentum holds Confluence Checklist: - Sweep of prior highs (PDH liquidity grab) - Strong supply reaction + OB retest - Bearish EMA slope holding price down - Momentum shift + clean intraday structure - Entry gives >2R to TP1, >4R to TP2 Risk Notes: If price reclaims 66.70+ and closes above OB → bias invalidated. Don’t marry the trade this is oil, not Tinder.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by stakkd
WTI(20250717)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The annual rate of PPI in the United States in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, and the previous value was revised up from 2.6% to 2.7%. Federal Reserve Beige Book: The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Manufacturing activity declined slightly, and corporate recruitment remained cautious. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 65.20 Support and resistance levels: 66.59 66.07 65.74 64.67 64.33 63.83 Trading strategy: If it breaks through 65.74, consider buying in, and the first target price is 66.07 If it breaks through 65.20, consider selling in, and the first target price is 64.67
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
WTI(20250715)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Sources said that after Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative scenario next week than expected in June. The ECB is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on July 24. Discussions on rate cuts are still postponed to September. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 66.63 Support and resistance levels: 69.20 68.24 67.62 65.65 65.02 64.06 Trading strategy: If it breaks through 66.63, consider buying in, the first target price is 67.62 If it breaks through 65.65, consider selling in, the first target price is 65.02
NYMEX:CL1!
by NicolaZhu
CL1! Short Setup – Fading Into Volume Shelf📉 CL1! Short Setup – Fading Into Volume Shelf 🔹 Context: Price just tapped into a heavy upper volume shelf (68.35–68.50) — the exact area where the prior breakdown started. This zone aligns with rejection highs and the upper edge of the VRVP profile. 📌 Setup Logic: 🔺 Entry: 68.36–68.50 (into supply zone) ⛔ Stop: 68.75 (above liquidity peak) 🎯 Target: 66.78 (prior demand + volume node) 📐 RRR: ~4.0:1 ⚠️ Trigger: Do not enter early — wait for rollover of price which it looks like we are getting now. 📊 Why It Matters: 📈 VRVP shows clear upper and lower volume shelves 📛 Price has overextended into a prior rejection zone 🔁 Potential for a mean-reversion leg once we confirm momentum breakdown 📷 See attached chart for full zone layout 🧠 Let me know if you’re entering or watching this one 👇 #CrudeOil #CL1 #FuturesTrading #VolumeProfile #SciQua #OrderFlow
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Intraday mechanicsNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! Bigger Picture: Traders should note that news headlines do not always drive the price action. More often, news outlets look for narrative to align with the price action. Previously, it was about the supply glut and worsening demand due to an uncertain outlook. Now the latest news flow is about Aramco OSP rising, OPEC+ adding another 548K bpd in August — higher than anticipated 411K — of the wounding of involuntary cuts. News outlets now view this as signs of demand growth and low inventories. What has the market done? Market has consolidated, building acceptance around microComposite Volume Point of Control at 65.50 (mcVPOC). Market then broke out of this balance. What is it trying to do? Market is building value higher; 2-day mcVPOC is at 68.29. How good of a job is it doing? Market is holding support and has tested resistance multiple times. It has also held support. What is more likely to happen from here? Further movement higher as long as it holds above support and yearly open confluence in the short term. Key Levels: • Resistance zone: 68.95 - 68.85 • pHi: 68.87 • 2-day VPOC: 68.29 • pSettlement: 68.38 • yOpen: 67.65 • Support zone: 67.70 - 67.50 • pLow: 67.89 Primary Scenario: Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Prices move lower to test prior day's low, 2-day balance support in confluence with yearly open. Prices push back higher towards yesterday's settlement and 2-day Volume Point of Control (VPOC) at 68.33. Secondary Scenario: Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Market consolidates and chops around pSettlement and 2-day VPOC. Market takes out overnight high, fails to go further higher, and reverts lower. Settles below overnight low, however staying above prior low to continue one-time framing higher for the regular trading hours (RTH).
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Where’s the Oil Price Heading Amid Rising Supply and Weak DemandThe eight oil-producing nations of OPEC+ agreed to raise output in August, opting for a larger-than-expected increase. OPEC+ cited a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals. The crude oil market remains under pressure from subdued prices, persistent supply growth, and uncertain demand prospects. WTI SOARED ON CONFLICT, SANK JUST AS FAST ON CEASEFIRE June saw heightened volatility in WTI crude prices, driven by a short-lived conflict between Israel and Iran. Prices surged from USD 68/b on 12/Jun (one day before Israel struck Iran) to a five-month high of USD 78.40/b on 23/Jun, following the U.S. strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities. Fears of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for ~20% of global oil flows, amplified the rally. However, prices swiftly retreated as a ceasefire was announced within 24 hours. The rapid de-escalation erased most of the geopolitical risk premium, pushing crude back toward pre-conflict levels. Implied volatility and skew also dropped. Source: CME CVOL While flare-ups like Iran halting cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog on 02/Jul (Wed) briefly lifted WTI prices but a surprise U.S. inventory build quickly capped the gains. Overall, June’s rally was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant. OPEC+ ACCELERATES OUTPUT RESTORATION EVEN AS DEMAND WORRIES LOOM With geopolitical tensions easing, market attention has shifted back to supply-demand fundamentals. Global oil demand remains sluggish, heightening concerns of a potential oversupply, especially as OPEC+ continues to unwind its production cuts. On 05/Jul (Sat), eight key members of the OPEC+ alliance—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually and agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411,000 bpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548,000 bpd. OPEC+ has been curbing output since 2022 to support prices. However, the alliance began reversing course this year to regain market share, amid rising competition from non-OPEC producers and pressure from Washington to help ease fuel prices. This group began unwinding the voluntary cut of 2.2 million bpd in April. The original plan was to gradually increase production by 137,000 bpd each month through September 2026. Yet, after only one month at that pace, the group accelerated the process, tripling the monthly hike to 411,000 bpd for May, June, and July. As of August, OPEC+ will have restored 1.92 million bpd of the 2.2 million bpd initially cut, leaving just 280,000 bpd to be brought back. Following years of output cuts to stabilize prices, OPEC+ is now focused on expanding its market share as global supply competition intensifies. DEMAND SIGNALS FLASH UNSEASONAL SUMMER WEAKNESS Recent data paints a bearish demand picture. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels in the week ending 27/Jun, defying forecasts of a 3.5 million-barrel draw. A build during peak summer signals weak consumption. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million bpd, while stockpiles surged by 4.2 million barrels exceeding expectations of a 0.7 million barrel build. Source: EIA and Investing.com Adding to concerns, the U.S. labour market showed signs of strain, with private payrolls unexpectedly dropping by 33,000 in June, according to the ADP report . Analysts had expected private payrolls to rise by 99,000. The soft employment data suggests broader economic weakness that could further dampen fuel use. China offered a rare positive note, with its Caixin Manufacturing PMI returning to expansion (above 50) in June on stronger orders and output. However, the rebound is unlikely to meaningfully shift the global demand narrative. WTI TECHNICALS SIGNAL SUSTAINED BEARISH MOMENTUM As prices retreated from five-month highs post-ceasefire, technical signals turned bearish, a death cross formed on 02/Jul as the 21-day DMA crossed the 9-day DMA, reinforcing downside momentum. Meanwhile, uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs after the 09/Jul (Wed) deadline continues to cloud trade and demand outlooks. Prices slipped below the 150-day SMA on 24/Jun and have held beneath it since, reinforcing the bearish trend. A bearish MACD and fading RSI underscore continued weakness in WTI prices. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP While the medium-term outlook for WTI remains bearish, the coming week could see heightened volatility driven by two key factors: OPEC+’s larger-than-expected production increase and the U.S. tariff decision due on 09/Jul (Wed). Although the accelerated OPEC+ supply hikes are priced in, downward pressure on prices is likely to persist. Meanwhile, the U.S. tariff decision adds a layer of uncertainty; any escalation or renewal of tariffs could weigh further on oil prices, while a rollback might offer temporary support. Aside from another geopolitical shock, upside risks remain limited. In this context, a long straddle is a prudent strategy to capture potential sharp price swings in either direction. Source: CME QuikStrike This paper proposes a long straddle strategy using the Monday weekly WTI crude oil options expiring on 14/Jul (ML2N5), designed to benefit from heightened volatility regardless of price direction. The position involves purchasing a USD 66.50/b call and a USD 66.50/b put, resulting in breakeven levels at USD 63.58/b and USD 69.42/b. The total cost of the trade is a net premium of USD 2.92/b, or USD 2,920 per contract. The strategy offers unlimited upside potential if prices move beyond the breakeven levels, while the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. The accompanying chart, generated via CME Group’s QuikStrike Strategy Simulator , provides a detailed visualization of the strategy’s performance under various market scenarios. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mintdotfinance
Crude Oil: Key Breakout Levels Suggest Bullish MomentumCurrent Price: $65.81 Direction: LONG Targets: - T1 = $67.45 - T2 = $69.30 Stop Levels: - S1 = $64.20 - S2 = $62.50 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Crude Oil. **Key Insights:** Crude Oil is showing signals of a potential recovery after recent bearish movements. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) demonstrate bullish divergence, suggesting upward momentum could be on the horizon. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions may stabilize global energy markets, fostering an environment for prices to rally. Supply adjustments by OPEC+ members and ongoing production data are crucial elements to monitor, given their direct impact on crude oil price action. **Recent Performance:** In recent sessions, crude oil has seen a rebound following a sharp sell-off. Prices have ranged within a consolidation zone near $65. Global factors, including inflation risks and geopolitical concerns, pressured prices downward before entering a stabilization phase. This recovery is supported by improved market sentiment and reduced volatility linked to energy commodities. **Expert Analysis:** Market watchers have noted mixed signals in Crude Oil’s technical chart patterns, where support levels around $64 have held firmly against downward pressure. Some analysts forecast a breakout above $67 in the short term, potentially targeting the $69 range if conditions remain favorable. Factors like increased demand expectations from Asia and continued OPEC+ discipline reinforce bullish sentiment. Conversely, traders should watch for unexpected supply shocks or policy changes that could challenge upward movement. **News Impact:** Recent geopolitical developments, particularly reduced tensions in key oil-producing regions, have positively impacted global crude prices. Additionally, expectations of further interest rate moderation by major economies may aid crude oil’s price trajectory by reducing recession risks. The U.S.'s strategic push for renewable energy has had mixed implications for hydrocarbon demand in the short term, underpinning crude oil prices in global markets. **Trading Recommendation:** Given current technical setups and improving fundamentals, taking a bullish position on Crude Oil offers a promising opportunity. Key support levels suggest limited downside risk, while near-term targets provide a favorable risk-reward ratio. Traders should focus on the $67.45 mark as an initial upside pivot, with extended gains anticipated at $69.30 under strengthened bullish conditions.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading