CRUDE OIL FUTURE DAILY CHARTEverything according to plan!!! We see more downside potential for the Oil market that could reach $40 area
QM1! trade ideas
Crude Oil: Weakest Setup in Recent Times | Caution Advised🛢️ Crude is showing one of the worst technical setups in recent memory. On the weekly chart , it's trading at a 4-year low , with back-to-back weekly breakdowns , indicating strong bearish momentum.
🔻 If the price breaches the recent support near $55.12 , we could see further downside in the coming weeks. This level will be crucial—holding it might trigger a bounce, but a breakdown could confirm a deeper trend shift.
⚠️ However, it’s important to remember: Crude Oil is highly sensitive to geopolitical and policy-driven moves . Technicals can break down quickly under such influences, so trade with strict risk management .
📉 I'm using the #iSparkIndicator to monitor momentum and breakdown confirmations. It’s currently showing sustained weakness with no bullish divergence yet.
📌 Key Levels to Watch :
Support: $55.12
Resistance: $64.50
💬 Stay cautious and reactive—not predictive. Let the market show its hand.
🔍 Interested in the iSparkIndicator? Check my profile for more info.
#CrudeOil #OilAnalysis #WTI #iSparkIndicator #TechnicalAnalysis #Commodities #SwingTrading
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears defended the breakout area and kept the market in a bear trend. Bulls tried to print a higher low with a decent bull reversal bar on Thursday. Now what? No idea. Oil below 60 is a big thing and staying below is somewhat low probability, given the past 6 years. The chart is still pretty bearish and if you want to be a bull and look at this, would you be thrilled to buy it at 58? I’m not sure. If you could hold below 53 and add lower as well, sure but as of now, bulls have not done enough to convice me this is a credible bottom.
current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily
key levels: 54 - 65
bull case: Bulls want to keep Thursday the higher low and go up from here. Above 60 they are slightly favored to test 62/64 again but one could also draw another bear trend line from 71.66 to 63.9 from last Monday. So buying here is not favorable, no matter how you look at this chart. Only above 65 do bulls take control again and can test the next bigger bear trend line around 67.
Invalidation is below 54.
bear case: Bears kept the bounce around the breakout area from the W1 low. Now they need to make lower lows to confirm the acceleration of this bear trend. If they fail, this will become fuel for the bulls to test back up to either 67 or even the W2 high at 71.66. My line in the sand for the bears is a daily bull bar close above the daily 20ema. If bulls can get that, I think more bears will give up. Until then, bears are slightly favored, especially below 56.29 to test 54.48 again.
Invalidation is a daily close above 62 and for sure anything above 65.
short term: Neutral around 58. Below 56.29 I think we can do 54.48 or lower and above 62 I expect more upside for 64 or higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
micro wti in wave 4 pullback next wave 5Hello traders, I noted an Elliott wave aggressive bullish wave 1 run with strong bullish candles followed by a complex wave 2 correction then followed by a strong impulse 5 wave structure that I noted as wave 3 at premium. Currently, in a simple corrective wave 4 at the ( green area of interest) I see that wave 4 still is in progress and can potentially finish at the trap of fib.0618 making sure to leave some liquidity behind for later structure manipulation. Noting, that 4wave can not violate wave 2 territory per Elliott waves rules. When wave 4 is completed wave 5, I suggest will resume to grab the above the liquidity see in yellow @ 1 fib extension or more 1.272=(for Elliott wave traders).. note 30 min chart , confluence on 4hr and 12 hr chart
Oil long term downOil
Monthly
Monthly continuation down
Psychological support level 50
Strong 43.5 level
Weekly
Expecting weekly continuation down
R/R high as price is really close to 55 last's month low level
Conclusion
Not a good trade setup
However long term is down maybe all the way to weekly or monthly RSI 30
crude oil now selling pressurehello all,
as per chart & our indicator gives sell signal on chart, below target are given upside red line stop loss.
wait for break out.
please comment with ur no. if u like my analysis.
OPEC at a turning point: what’s next for oil? All eyes are on OPEC ahead of its May 5 meeting as it faces pressure from falling prices, weak demand, and internal rifts.
While some expect a pause in output hikes, the consensus points to continued increases. The group’s decision will be key in shaping oil market dynamics amid trade tensions and fragile global growth.
APRIL PRICE ACTION: TARIFFS, TRUMP, AND TURBULENCE
April witnessed WTI crude oil futures plummeting by 18.6%, marking its sharpest monthly decline since November 2021, as U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ supply hikes dragged prices.
President Trump’s April 2 announcement of 10% baseline tariffs on all imports, with elevated duties targeting China and others, triggered fears of a global trade slowdown. Additionally, China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods only intensified demand concerns.
OPEC+ exacerbated the selloff by boosting output by 138,000 bpd in April, its first production hike since 2022. The group had initially planned for gradual monthly increases of 135,000 bpd, but the higher-than-expected increase caught the market off guard, intensifying downward pressure on prices.
The cartel followed up with an announcement that it would hike output in May by 411,000 bpd. The accelerated pace of production increases is widely seen as politically motivated, reflecting pressure to align with U.S. interests amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions.
OUTPUT HIKES LOOM AMID POLITICAL TENSIONS AND INTERNAL RIFTS
OPEC+ faces growing pressure to raise output, despite weak demand. Political factors, internal pressure from key members, and a desire to protect market share are driving this shift.
Disagreements within the group are mounting. Kazakhstan, for example, says it can’t cut production and will prioritize domestic needs, continuing to exceed its target. In March, the UAE, Iraq, and Nigeria also pumped above quotas and are pushing for higher limits to support their budgets.
Source: OPEC and IEA
Saudi Arabia appears less willing to support prices with further cuts. Reuters reports the kingdom is prepared to tolerate lower prices to defend market share.
Rising domestic oil use from May to September, due to higher electricity demand, also supports more output.
OPEC+ is also under political pressure to boost output, with analysts suggesting Saudi Arabia and others may fast-track supply hikes at the May 5 meeting to ensure oil doesn’t become a flashpoint ahead of Trump’s upcoming visit to the Gulf.
OIL MARKET STRUGGLES WITH TWIN HEADWINDS: WEAK DEMAND AND RISING OPEC+ SUPPLY
OPEC has cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 10.3% to 1.3 million bpd and trimmed its 2026 outlook by 10.5% to 1.28 million bpd, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Source: OPEC , EIA , and IEA
The EIA and IEA echoed this downgrade, reinforcing expectations of prolonged price pressure amid trade tensions and rising supply.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Economic data from major consumers deepens the bearish tone. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 2025, its first decline since 2022, as firms rushed imports ahead of tariffs, disrupting trade flows. China’s April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, marking its lowest since 2023 despite stimulus measures.
The trade tensions between the U.S. and China disrupt supply chains and increase costs, while slower economic growth in key regions curtails fuel consumption.
With global growth cooling and OPEC+ accelerating output, the oil market now faces a dual challenge: softening demand and swelling supply. The result is a volatile outlook skewed toward persistent oversupply.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
With OPEC+ likely to uphold or accelerate output hikes at the May 5 meeting due to the reasons stated above, WTI remains vulnerable.
Notably, WTI’s implied volatility remains near its YTD highs, and the skew stays deep in negative territory at 5.6, signalling stronger demand for downside protection over upside exposure.
Source: CME CVOL
The 21-day MA remains above the 9-day MA, indicating sustained bearish pressure, while the MACD continues to trend lower despite the May 1 price rebound.
RSI hovers in neutral territory but below the midpoint, signalling weakening bullish conviction.
All these indicators point to fading bullish momentum and sustained downside pressure.
Overall, bearish technicals, persistent oversupply risk, and soft economic data from the U.S., China, and Europe support a short-term bearish view.
Source: CME QuikStrike
With OPEC’s meeting set for 05 May, investors may explore the 05/May ML1K5 Monday weekly options.
This paper posits a Bearish Put Spread using weekly WTI options expiring on 05/May, offering defined risk and reward in a directional play with a 1.1x reward-to-risk ratio.
The long put at USD 61/barrel, and the short put at USD 57/barrel; this sets a breakeven at USD 59.09/barrel. The trade costs a net premium of USD 1.91/barrel (USD 1,910/contract)
The position yields a maximum profit of USD 2.09/barrel (USD 2,090/contract) if WTI settles below USD 57/barrel, and a maximum loss of USD 1.91/barrel (USD 1,910/contract) if it closes above USD 61/barrel.
The chart above was created using CME Group’s QuikStrike Strategy Simulator , which allows for precise modeling and clear visualization of trading strategies under different market conditions.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Bullish Harami/ Hammer -Unconfirmed Candlestick PatternThis candlestick pattern lacks confirmation but suggest a bottom may be forming for crude oil. This is likely fully driven by the state of the economy and trade. Any positive news around the economy, geo politics, trade, etc. will likely result in confirmation with a bullish candle and prices could go higher.
Crude oil 4 h time frame 🛢️ Technical Overview (WTI Crude Oil – 4H)
📐 Pattern Formation:
A double bottom pattern is clearly forming, which is a classic bullish reversal structure.
The neckline appears to be just below the $59.00 area.
A breakout above this neckline would confirm the pattern and open the door for further upside.
🎯 Measured Move Projection:
The vertical projection shows a +7.89 USD target (around 12.49% upside).
Measured from the neckline (~$59.00), the projected target is around $66.90–$67.00.
🔍 Key Levels:
Support (bottom of the pattern): ~$56.00–$56.30
Neckline/Breakout level: ~$59.00
Target zone: ~$66.90–$67.00
Resistance on the way up: ~$61.00 and ~$64.50
🧠 Outlook & Bias:
Short- to Medium-term Bias: Bullish, contingent on a confirmed breakout above the $59 neckline.
A break and close above $59.00 would activate the pattern and favor a continuation toward $66.90.
If price fails to break out and falls back below ~$56.00, the pattern is invalidated.
📌 Potential Trade Setup (Educational Only):
Entry: Break and close above $59.00
Stop Loss: Below $57.50
TP1: $61.00
TP2: $64.50
TP3: $66.90
WTI: Break It or Bounce ItIf other cyclical asset classes are rallying like a global recession can be avoided, then why shouldn’t crude oil? Yes, there are reports OPEC+ may increase output again, and we know Donald Trump wants lower prices, but those factors should already be priced in. The true swing factor is demand—and if it’s not about to fall in a heap, why should crude?
We’ve now seen three violent rallies from beneath $57.30, including when the level was established in early 2021. If price were to return to those levels in the near-term, it could offer a decent swing trade. Longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection, targeting a run back to $60.45, a minor level that acted as both support and resistance in April. If that were to give way, a move towards key resistance at $65.27 could follow.
Another option would be to wait for a sustained push above $60.45, allowing longs to be established on the break with a stop beneath, targeting $65.27. Of the two setups, this one screens as higher risk given how lightly $60.45 has been tested.
Momentum remains with the bears, which normally favours selling rips over buying dips. But in these headline-driven markets, that signal may not carry its usual weight. For what it’s worth, downside momentum is easing for now.
A close beneath $57.30 would invalidate the countertrend bullish setup.
Good luck!
DS
Looking to short CL to continue lowerCL is making a corrective move higher before moving down to the ultimate target of last Daily structure leg down. It retraced to Daily bearish Fair Value Gaps (internal range liquidity zones) which should act as resistance. 15M bearish structure is in Extreme premium.
I'm looking for CL to break down bullish corrective structure on 5M chart and start a final move down.
MCX Crude Oil Hourly PredictionAs shown in the attached chart, MCX Crude Oil performed well under 1 hourly chart always.
Disclaimer:- All the shared views are for educational purposes only. We provide Technical Indicators only for educational purposes. As we are not SEBI registered, there will be no claim rights reserved. Please consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Planning for the Next Trade in Crude OilNYMEX:CL1!
Key Levels – Higher Timeframe:
• 2025 High: 78.56
• Yearly Open (2025): 69.64
• 2025 mCVPOC: 71.83
• Yearly VWAP: 68.41
• AVWAP from Yearly Highs: 67.71
• 2025 mCVAL: 65.28
• March 2025 Low: 64.37
• 2024 Low: 59.91
April 2025 Key Levels:
• April mCVAL: 58.79
• April mCVPOC: 60.94
• April AVWAP from Lows: 61.29
• April AVWAP from Highs: 61.76
• April mCVAH: 63.73
Our previous trade idea played out as expected. With updated levels now in place, we aim to reassess the market context without falling into recency or confirmation bias. These biases often lead to an overly bearish outlook at market lows, especially amid ongoing headlines around trade war tensions and supply concerns. While such fundamentals are important, maintaining objectivity is key.
This leads us to the central question: Is all this bearish sentiment already priced in? If so, why are sellers still dominant?
From a broader perspective, the overall context for crude remains bearish. However, this does not imply an immediate continuation to lower prices.
Currently, price is trading below both the midpoint of 2025 and that of 2024. Additionally, the recent price swing failed at the March 2025 low—an important technical rejection. The 2024 low at 59.91 now serves as key structural support. We anticipate further consolidation within the April 2025 value range, specifically between mCVAH (63.73) and mCVAL (58.79).
We define the area between April’s mCVPOC (60.94) and AVWAPs (61.29 / 61.76) as a "noise zone"—a region where price action is likely to be choppy and directionless. This zone is not favorable for directional trades.
Potential Trade Setup – Range-Bound Play
Example Trade 1: Long Crude Oil
• Entry: 59.91
• Stop: 59.20
• Target: 61.76
• Risk: 71 ticks
• Reward: 185 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.6R
Example Trade 2: Long Crude Oil
• Entry: 58.80
• Stop: 58.20
• Target: 61.76
• Risk: 60 ticks
• Reward: 296 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.93 R
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations.
• Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management.
• Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels.
• AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
ATH: All time high
VPOC: Volume Point of Control
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price
Green Zones: Bull/ Buyers support zones
Red Zones: Bear/Seller resistance zones
Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has also started to fluctuate recently. Yesterday's daily line finally began to decline. Crude oil is bearish in both the big and small trends. Continue to sell when it rebounds to the moving average. The crude oil pattern is still weak on the daily line. The current suppression position has begun to move down. Crude oil 61.68 is an opportunity to sell. The daily moving average has begun to rush down. Don't intercept it.
Fundamental analysis
Today, we will start to pay attention to the ADP data, as well as PCE data and EIA crude oil inventory data.
Operation suggestions
Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00
Oil Price Rebound UnravelsThe price of oil may continue to give back the rebound from the monthly low ($54.46) as it extends the decline from the start of the week.
The price of oil starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows as it snaps the range bound price action from last week, with a move/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region bringing the 2023 low ($52.24) on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around $49.10 (100% Fibonacci extension), but lack of momentum to move/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of gold back towards the weekly high ($63.92).
Need a close above $64.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to bring the $70.80 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 72.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around the February high ($74.30).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
Crude oil---sell near 63.00, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
The recent crude oil daily line has also begun to decline. Yesterday, the daily line closed negative, and the selling began to decline. Today's idea is to consider selling opportunities near the rebound of 63.00. Crude oil continues to be bearish. No matter the fundamentals or technical aspects, there is no sign of bullishness. Today, crude oil is expected to fluctuate and fall. Don't chase the rebound. We are considering it. In addition, crude oil will also close the monthly line. Pay attention to its monthly line.
Fundamental analysis:
This week is a data week. Starting from Wednesday, big data will be released one by one. In addition, continue to pay attention to the situation of the US dollar and the changes in tariff policies.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 63.00, target 60.00-58.00
Looking to short CLCL is starting to show weakness on most of the timeframes for potential continuation of leg down of Daily bearish structure.
Looking for retrace to 15M premium zone for a possible short
Crude Oil (WTI) | Hidden Accumulation| (April 2025)Crude Oil (WTI) | Short Bias | Hidden Accumulation + Fib Target | (April 27, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
Money flow is exiting Crude Oil on the 4-hour chart, but price is holding steady — showing signs of hidden accumulation. A big move could be setting up soon!
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Short
Entry Zone: During ongoing consolidation phase with accumulation signals
Stop Loss: Below recent structural lows (adjust if lower timeframe support breaks)
TP1: $47.00 (based on Fibonacci retracement and extension analysis)
Partial Exits: Optional partials at internal Fibonacci levels leading up to $47
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Despite visible outflows, price remains stable — pointing toward iceberg orders on lower timeframes and broader accumulation on higher timeframes.
✅ Retail buying is visible, but the bigger story is in the hidden accumulation by larger players.
✅ Confirm with base volume, price structure, and indicator setups — momentum must match the thesis.
❌ Risk if structure breaks down below consolidation base — stops must protect against fakeouts.
4️⃣ Follow-up:
I will keep monitoring Crude Oil closely and update if we get a strong breakout confirming the move toward the $47 zone!
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#202517 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market went nowhere past week so nothing changed from my last weeks update. Bulls want to retest the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears reversing below the 50% retracement of the bear trend that started in January. I do not have an opinion on where the breakout will happen, I can see it going both ways.
current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again
key levels: 55 - 69
bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target. Nothing changed in this.
Invalidation is below 60.
bear case: Bears have going for them that they stopped the bounce at the breakout area and under the 50% retracement, which is very important for them. If they get a daily close below 60, we could go lower again but until then it’s a clear trading range 60-52. Market is neutral for me, despite not going above the 50% retracement.
Invalidation is a daily close above 65.
short term: Neutral 60-65, bullish above for 69 and bearish below for 55.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
Nothing happened the past week so no better update on this. Will tariffs likely or are they already dampening consumption? Most likely. Will this be reflected in Oil demand in the near term? No fucking clue. Chart is in a bear trend but at such a huge support for so many years, I doubt we go much lower but we could range here for longer.
Buy idea on Crude Oil (CL1!)Based on :
- US10Y Leading long spike
- Commercials and Non Commercials at Extremes
- Open Interest at Extremes
- Cycles and quantitative data
- Undervalued conditions
-Demand zone
Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering.
Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00
Selling CL based in line with daily bearish trendI did video analysis yesterday. I was looking to short CL which provided short entry in NY AM session however bounced back forming inside bar on daily chart. Today CL swept the liquidity above Daily inside bar high and reversed forming a breaker on 15M chart. I still expect yesterday's discussed idea and move to happen with target of big bearish Wednesday Daily candle low.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
