QM1! trade ideas
Elliott Wave Analysis on Oil (CL) Looks for Short Term WeaknessShort Term Elliott Wave in Light Crude Oil (CL) suggests the decline from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave 1 ended at 81.56 and wave 2 rally ended at 86.28. Wave 3 lower ended at 76.89. The 1 hour chart below shows the starting point from wave 3. Wave 4 bounce unfolded as an expanded Flat structure. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 79.96 and wave ((b)) ended at 76.70. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 80.6 which completed wave 4 in higher degree.
Oil has turned lower in wave 5. Down from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 79.17 and wave (ii) ended at 79.85. Down from there, wave i ended at 78.08 and wave ii ended at 79.5. Expect wave iii to end soon, then it should see 2 more lows to end wave (v) of ((i)). Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 5.20.2024 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 80.6 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Can Crude Oil Futures Breakout?Technical Momentum Weakens
Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting to the 200-day moving average at $77.55. The technical perspective shows momentum studies recovering from oversold territories, while the 9-day moving average is trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range declines to $1.46 daily.
API Inventories Rise
API Inventory has increased recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a build of 2.5 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 457 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 475 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Midwest show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 43 million barrels.
An Expanding Economic Tailwind
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. Traders will remain focused on inflation data, inventory productions, and the direction of economic data.
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Crude Wednesday Pre NewsSo this is the forecast for Crude pre 1030est news.
I'm favouring some BSL to be taken if the 1hr FVG gets disrespected.
With 1hr fvg above and the BSL that is pointed out with the arrows.
If we show rejection from the 1hfvg we are currently near then PDL will be the target.
With news there is no certainty.
Overall I am HTF bearish however a sweep on BSL could be on the cards today.
Buy oil stocksBuy oil stocks as described in the analysis provided and follow the steps specified in Stop Loss and Take Profit
Crude OilThis is not a trading signal, it is my own opinion, if you copy the trade is on your own risk.
Oil has broken the down trend channel , so far there is still move to the down side to retest the previous support, which will probably create triple bottom to indicate for break through to the up trend if it breaks the sideways channel.
Long position opportunities Price has been in a range for couple weeks, just retraced to 61.8 bullish retracement headed to the top of the range. This is a low risk trade with make buying major coming in to the top of the range, I’ll take two positions and close one at the top of range and wait to see if price breaks above the range finally send position tp will be at 61.8 of bearish retracement of the last impulse. Will update trend line. The range is below 38.2 which is the resistance. If price fails with daily close may consider another short.
On another note Iran’s president passed and the reaction to price was minimal.
$80 Headwinds, Any Hope for Crude Oil?Crude Oil (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 79.30, down 0.28
WTI Crude Oil futures started the week unenthusiastically with a failure at the psychological $80 mark that aligns with a key .382 retracement and fell short of pinging the 50-day moving average. OPEC+ instability was downplayed after the death of the Iranian President on Sunday, while prices have been in a downtrend since peaking on geopolitical tensions through mid-April, and seasonality concerns persist after the Memorial Day holiday. While we still see value against our critical area of support highlighted below, a continued test erodes confidence.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 78.59-78.76**, 78.99*, 79.35-79.67**, 80.09-80.11***, 81.28***
Pivot: 78.25
Support: 77.65-77.86***, 77.26**, 75.70-76.36****
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower.
My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows.
Daily PDL
Weekly SSL
Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move.
Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity.
Lets see how this plays out !!!
CL1!
Looks like a BUY to me
Wycoff pattern generally quite reliable
I'd say 80%
Just had quite a big pull back
Crude**CrudeOil:**
The forecast for Crude this week is for the price to fall to the 76.43 level, that matches with a lost pivot.
[Commodity] Crude Oil Buy IdeaNote -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives
Crude Oil Weekly Analysis- 20th to 24th May 2024
Over view
As per my previous weekly analysis, Crude oil had great ride from beginning of this year and paused from previous month. Fortunately this was necessary for having further movement. We can consider the previous month process was retracement thus by expecting further movement in upcoming weeks.
Any small bounce from this level would be great bullish indications for good week ahead.
Weekly TF
Price has exactly reacted at 0.382 Fibonacci level which is good sign of bullish continuation.
Good green candle formation after doji formation & crossed 50 EMA
Day TF
Trend: Upward range with 3 consecutive support(HL 01, HL 02, HL 03).
Now HL04 has been created and rejected at same level by creating double bottom.
Inside candle breakout has been found after creating Doji & Bullish hammer.
Price has been rejected from crucial key level
0.5 Level rejected in Fibonacci
Buy:
Entry 01:6691
Entry 02: 6962
Final Target expected: 7235
Direct Gapup/Gapdown entry should be avoided
Get confirmation from any of the leading indicators before entering trade
Kindy comment below in case of any clarification required on this particular idea.
Please follow for more ideas
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
One more shove lower before blast off? The structure on Friday shifted into corrective looking waves, so I won't be surprised by another shove lower into fib support before the next meaningful run higher commences. If it goes up directly from here I will have some head scratching to do.
Short OILMaduro will lose the venezuelan election and liberate lots of supply to the market. USA will ease Venezuela sanctions.
5/12 | $CLNot too much to update here as we are still stuck in a range as expected. We got a new low last Wednesday with strong buyside reaction. Very trappy PA. This week, I would ideally like to see buyside liquidity @79.96 get taken and buy the retracement to catch a move higher. Area of interest below @77.85.
Oil Counter-Trend Longs into Next ShortOil has broken the 15 minute shorts and now are on their way to the All The Way HWB shorts in on the larger 4 hour time frames. You can see how on Friday, the small time frame shorts survived multiple 4 hour candle dives below the 61.8% longs, only to close at or above the 61.8% long. Our 15 minute bias is long and expect it to trade back up to the 82.18-83.42 level, where we sold it in April. Where we can, we will try to be a buyer . . . should have bought those 15 min longs on Friday but it's a hard contract to hold over the weekend. . . .though if there is a direction to hold oil over the weekend, it would be long in the event of a geo-political issue that causes a gap up in oil prices.
WTI trading plan - 16 May 2024NYMEX:CL1!
Longer term trend is still bearish. But Price is trading above 50 SMA, suggesting a short-term bullishness.
Will attempt for intra-day longs today with stops below the 50 SMA.
Crude - Testing the waters...We saw our weekly target hit yesterday,
I have a hunch as on the Daily we are constantly going back to the middle of the range that bsl of some form is in the eye of the market before we would want to move down.
I ask myself.... Why would we want to go all the way back (weekly ssl level) if we have been here and raided Sell Stops... If I was the market I would want some breakfast first before I head down for lunch and dinner right?
So for PRE 0930EST im watching to see if price respects the 4hr FVG's.
This will indicate some bsl to be taken.
Crude Futures Break Below The 200-DMATechnical Momentum Weakens
Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 200-day moving average at $77.94. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.57 daily.
API Inventories Decline
API Inventory has tightened recently, indicating a tighter supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a drawdown of 3.1 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 459 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 474 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 44 million barrels.
An Expanding Economic Tailwind
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future.
www.tradingview.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
