CLM2024 Oil Futures Continuing Down?
As it appears, we could see another downward spiral in oil prices for next week and then maybe hit the support of $77 area?
QM1! trade ideas
Crude Oil Weekly Analysis- 06th May to 10th May 2024MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
Weekly TF
Crude oil had great ride from beginning of this year and paused from previous month. Fortunately this was necessary for having further movement. We can consider the previous month process was retracement thus by expecting further movement in upcoming weeks.
Recent swing and bigger swings are at crucial level in Fibonacci retracement. Any small bounce from this level would be great bullish indications for good week ahead.
Should wait for Monday day candle should reject these crucial level. Then big bullish momentum expected for few weeks.
Day TF
Trend: Upward range with 3 consecutive support(HL 01, HL 02, HL 03)
Key Levels: Prices were again approaching towards support there by expecting HL 04. If HL 04 reacts and prices bounced then good sign for bulls.
Need to watch out 200 EMA to get react before trade entry
Fibonacci is also at 50% level in recent swing
Buy:
Entry 01:6682
Entry 02: 6962
Final Target expected: 7235
Recommended to wait on Monday. Some consolidation is required before reversal
Update of my CL chart I have not updated this CL chart for a while but been playing out the way it was mapped out and i have updated the chart to include what i see now
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE on this LONG set up for OIL...?NYMEX:CL1!
“Hard Work, Dedication!” — Floyd Mayweather, Jr.
Oil could be setting up for a real nice LONG...Being that Price broke underneath Major Key Level $80.00/ Per Barrel... Let's see if we can get Mitigation of the HTF 4Hr Demand Zone Below and wait for a LTF 15m CHoCh Confirmation Set Up to go LONG... I'll be back with more updates as PA develops... Let's stay focused on building the system to produce consistent results for us over time....
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
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WTI recovery on 2nd of MayOver reaction and over sold on the 1st of May. NYMEX:CL1! could recover some lost ground tomorrow. Plan is to buy above 79.40.
pivot point + war situation this pivot is considered as very strong demand zone due to war situation
So I long 2 contract of CL
set different TP
this is very good area to make short term scalping trade
Technicals On Crude Post FOMCWednesday we saw Crude make a nice substantial move downwards as the previous forecasts have shown.
A large range day isnt normally followed by another day with a extremely large range and you can think of it like a runner running 800meters and couples minutes later having to run another race shortly after... energy needs to be recouped.
I am staying bearish and would like to see the Daily FVG and PDL liquidity taken and Daily FVG to be filled/spiked to.
30min fvg CE aligns with Daily ifvg which I believe should hold price lower.
Watch these levels post NY open.
Crude Oil Intraday
Downward range breakdown and M Patter formation. Overall downtrend
Sell Below 6722. 30 Points target and 15 Points stop loss
Buy chances above 4690
2024-05-01 - a daily price action after hour update - oil
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Big selling today and melted through 80. My thesis over the past weeks was a correction to around 77. We are at 79 and the odds are very high that we get there. Might see another bounce first though. Unsure and we have to wait for tomorrow.
current market cycle: most recent bull trend is over and we are correcting - probably trading range more than bear trend
key levels: trading range 77 - 85
bull case: 3 pushes down on many higher tf charts and bulls are reasonable if they buy 79 for a bounce. At least a retest of 80 is logical. 80.50 should be max if bears are strong and then I suspect market to move more sideways before we try another sell off to 77. Invalid below 78.6.
bear case: Bears outdid themselves today. I have drawn many dotted bear trend lines to visualize how many lower bear trend lines we broke below. If bears continue strongly below 78.6, this might be a bear trend rather a trading range and 77 might not hold for long either. But for now 77 is my main target. Sell-off today from 81 to 79.8 did not touch the 1m 20ema once.
short term: Sideways to up is preferred over another sell climax. 79 Should be good support before we try again for 77. If we start strong selling again, fine, but initiating new shorts here at 79 is very bad r:r. Invalid below 78.6 and we might crash down again.
medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged.
trade of the day: Same play since Monday, short around the 1h 20ema. Works like a charm. Sell off today was very climactic though.
FOMC Crude OilDaily Target met post NY open and Crude oil news.
Drop mic.
Just imagine you had the skill or someone to guide you where price is going?
You have the model... you just need direction.. we all struggle at one point on the bias esp intra day which needs a trader to be dynamic in his/her thoughts even when price is going against them intra day.
Daily/Weekly are essential.
Will update later for further bias and forecast for Crude!
Is a Deeper Correction forming in Crude Oil?Technical Momentum Weakens
Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 50-day moving average at $80.72. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.97 daily.
API Inventories Rise
API Inventory tightness has reversed recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a build of 4.9 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 453 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 469 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 32 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 42 million barrels.
An Expanding Economic Tailwind
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future.
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Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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Crude OilPair : Crude Oil
Description :
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Demand Zone
order for light crud oil *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
Technical Forecast... Crude OilWith FOMC looming today and NFC I don't see any reason for the Weekly SSL to be taken out and price to at least stab into the Daily FVG.
I will be looking out for meaning full moves into these price points during NY session today.
London may offer a little chance to create some false idea we have done it but usually the move is fake and revisited.
80.50 is my weekly objective as it has been from late last week.
So my trade idea's will evolve around price post retracement and then heading down.
possible long buying might get started here, for the 82.82 zone to make HL ... if the price stays above 80.80
CRUDE OIL (FUTURES): 1 MAY, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M
The broader context indicates that wave (ii)-purple appears to have just ended, and wave (iii)-purple is being initiated to push lower.
In the short term, wave (iii)-purple seems to be opening up to push lower. Wave i-blue is currently in progress, and surpassing the level of 82.14 would indicate the onset of wave ii-blue, preparing for the subsequent wave iii-blue to push lower.
Invalidation point: 84.46
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello,
My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside.
At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go.
The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY.
- R2F
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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Crude Oil Tuesday.Daily Bearish
Stay Bearish bias until 1hr -OB is closed above with a displacement candle @ 83.25
In this chart I am illustrating why IMO, this is a High resistance Liquidity run and not LRLR.
The Price in the circle is Balanced, so for price to cut through this with ease is difficult all be it we have a signature LRLR bellow.
So if a bearish setup appears don't expect it to run through like butter..
I am looking for bearish PA
OIL longexpecting oill to go to top of weekly range
in other words high of IPDA 20
1h OB low risk/ 5 min fvg entry
Crude Oil ForecastSo I was looking at Crude on the weekend and I couldn't determine a clear direction for Monday.
Now Monday Is almost over and we Have disrespected the Mean threshold of the Daily +OB I do expect price to be bearish and heading down towards the Daily FVG.
An Good indicator on the Daily we have respected the WEEKLY ifvg CE.
These things are very important to watch.
Before 0930est I will post intra day targets that I suspect will be Draw On Liquidity.
Bring on Tuesday!
