QM1! trade ideas
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias.
We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says.
Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective.
If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
Crude Futures Break Below The 200-DMATechnical Momentum Weakens
Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 200-day moving average at $77.94. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.57 daily.
API Inventories Decline
API Inventory has tightened recently, indicating a tighter supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a drawdown of 3.1 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 459 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 474 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 44 million barrels.
An Expanding Economic Tailwind
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future.
www.tradingview.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Monday Crude Oil ForecastWith no news injections today I would stay on the side lines.
We have Daily Wick level in conjunction with a 1hr FVG which if Crude Oil is substantially bearish should respect leading upto NY open and CME open.
The overall bias for me is still bearish with weekly ssl in the lower half of the charts marked with a magnet. This is the draw and what I will be waiting for / a setup to form.
You do have to stay dynamic however as the Daily candle on Friday took BSL inside of a Daily FVG.
This is respecting the bias.
EQH's where left in its wake so if the 1hr fvg and Daily wick is closed above on the 1hr TF we should start to consider that the market has other short term plans.
Stay Dynamic and if your bias doesn't match you can always stay out of the market!
Money preservation is very important.
GLGT- ;)
$CL1! trading plan for 15 May 2024Wait for the oscillators to turn bullish on 1H for $NYMEX:CL1!. We are looking at a possible long here.
Overnight trade on crudeQuick after market analysis for possible overnight trade
First trade Is a possible short at the newly formed resistance and I would have my Sl back up again the trend line downward
So entry would be 78.8
Sl would be 79.1
Tp would be 78.3
Here we could counting that when price reach the previous resistance it would have little to no volume to support more upward movements along side the fact that there 2 massive resistances against it.
Here we are counting on price coming back down to previous support where it would take out hopefully both of the 78.05 control of price by volume and if it takes out the 77.65 control of price too with a large wick we can have another long entry there and if price hits our Sl on the first over night trade short we can expect that it would have up and have a breakout past up the resistance to try and hit the 79.8 control of price where we can enter again by waiting for a confirmation of price heading back down to hit the trend line again before bouncing off to 79.80 for a long trade to make back our losses.
All of these trades have a very much probable chances of working out so that is my plan here for tomorrow depending on how things work out.
lets hope no unexpected dump or Pump happens to throw me off here
Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE:
Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low
A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels
Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%.
Inventories Remain at Average Levels
So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption.
Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut.
The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices.
Higher Prices Expected?
That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
$CL1! 13 May 2024 - Looking good for a long scalp$CL1 is looking set for an intra-day long.
The recent sharp drop below both key moving averages and subsequent movement indicate strong bearish pressure. But it has found short term support and is appearing to be reversing.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is part of my personal trading journal. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to trade any specific strategy.
Crude**CrudeOil:**
The forecast for Crude this week is for the price to fall to the 76.43 level, that matches with a lost pivot.
5/12 | $CLNot alot of update from last week's chart. We have been creating a base in daily demand zone (green zone) and consolidating as expected. This week, I would like to see some movement to the upside. A break of $80 upside confirms trend for me with first macro target at $83-84.
We goin LONG THIS WEEK ON Crude OIL from HTF Discounted DemandNYMEX:CL1!
"Excellence is not a singular act but a habit. You are what you do repeatedly." -Shaquille O'Neal
Last week Sellers were successful in pushing the price per barrel of OIL underneath Major Key Level ($80.00)... Now the reason I believe we are preparing for OIL to go LONG is due to price nearing a Major Unmitigated Daily Demand Zone and approaching a HTF eR/LQ Trendline.... I want to see price mitigate this Daily Demand zone then i'll drop down to the LTF for a confirmation entry model to scale LONG....
Discounted Demand Pricing I want to see mitigated before we enter LONG on a LTF entry model ($77.75 to $77.00)... I will keep update as price develops!!
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
9th May 2024 CL1 Trading PlanNYMEX:CL1! continues to look bullish today.
There might be a small pull back before the price resumes it journey towards 80. The plan is to wait for price action to confirm the direction clearly and look for buying opportunities around 78.70 area. Alternatively if there is no pullback in the morning session, wait for the price to break R1 or the 200 MA before buying.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is part of my personal trading journal. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to trade any specific strategy.
WTI could resume upward movementThe bearish trend is still dominant and we have had a clear downward trend. There has been some consolidation since last Friday and a bounce may be due soon.
Entry Point: Wait for the price to break above the downward trendline conclusively during today's morning EUR session.
Considering $79.50 as the profit target, with a stop-loss at $77.50.
NYMEX:CL1!
Crude Thursday Forecast I've been very reluctant to publish any idea's this week intra day, as I believe we are in retracement from the amount we sold off recently.
The 4hr wick CE is the point of interest I have where price respected
I am aiming for the 15min SSL to be broken and a setup form this CME open....
Lets wait and see...
OIl setting up for a bounce here, trade or continuation?We've been out of the #Oil trade for some time now.
It since went about 10% higher, no big deal.
Daily analysis:
Broke its recent uptrend.
RSI oversold - Usually gets a bounce at these levels.
It has been trading in between mid 60's & Low 90's.
Intraday looks like it is setting up for a bounce.
--------------------------------
Weekly Analysis:
You'd figure with tension rising that #OIL would be at a 100, at least.
Daily it broke the trend but it's best to wait until Friday to see if it's going back to the lower part of the trend or bouncing.
Historically, RSI doesn't hang around the 50 area much, shown by the yellow arrow.
The Bears are in Control of CrudeTechnical Momentum Weakens
Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 200-day moving average at $77.88. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.70 daily.
API Inventories Rise
API Inventory tightness has reversed recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a build of 509,000 barrels. The current EIA inventories are 460 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 473 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 33 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 44 million barrels.
An Expanding Economic Tailwind
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future.
www.tradingview.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Crude - Pre Market Guessing.So I don't take too much of my time on the weekend trying to figure out where price is going to go as price isnt even active.
So barring any exponential moves Sunday open I am still bearish and have :
Monthly Wick CE and target 1
Weekly SSL as target 2
Pre CME open I will re analyse where the market is and publish further forecast for the day.
QM Descending Channel QM has been trading in a descending channel since breaking down below its previous ascending channel. There's too much speculation about tensions in the middle east and elsewhere to take any big chances on this IMO, so it's best to wait for a break and retest, whether it is to the downside or the upside.
CRUDE OIL 1M1. Symmetric triangle pattern has been observed
2. Good support and resistance formed
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