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QM1! trade ideas

Short Term Elliott Wave Structure in Oil (CL_F) Favors DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave in Oil (CL_F) shows incomplete Elliott Wave bearish sequence from 04.12.2024 high. Down from there, wave 1 ended at 76.15 like the 1 hour chart below shows. Rally in wave 2 unfolded in a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 78.05 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 77.68. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 80.63 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. US Oil has resumed lower in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 76.39 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 77.52. The CL_F then nested lower with wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 76.62. Wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 77.34. The commodity extended lower in wave (iii) towards 72.48 and wave (iv) ended at 73.69. Wave (v) lower is still developing. As market stays below 73.69 high, we are calling for one more low to wave (v) of ((iii)) and wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Once wave ((iii)) ended, expect near term rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as wave ((iv)) for further downside.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2024-06-04 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: Yeah oil again. This is in play and you should look for strong momentum trades. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 70-77 bull case: Yesterday I said bulls need to keep it above 74 or we see 72. Low of the day was 72.48. 1h 20ema was resistance and bulls need a close above that. Still the same argument as yesterday. They need to stop new lows and make market go sideways. They also retested the bear channel from last week, from which we broke below, and they were rejected. Only thing they have going for now is that on higher tf you can clearly see 3 pushes down. Would still not look to buy other than scalping. Invalid below 70 bear case: Globex marked the high of the day and the 15m 20ema was resistance until 1h before US open. From there the market was in a trading range until it touched the 1h 20ema and sold off again. Bears want to keep the momentum going to get to 70 because that would be a clear brake of the bull trend line. Measured move from the last 5 trading days would bring us to 64. Next target for bears is a trade below 72 and then 70 if the momentum keeps going but we are near the lower bear channel line and market will probably need to move sideways to up first. short term: It’s only going down so look for short entries. I expect a pull-back soon but it could just be a shallow one where we move sideways. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday trade of the day: If you weren’t short during Globex, tricky to trade tbh. You could scalp every new high for a short but you really need to know what you are doing. Can also just not trade this or wait for the 1h 20ema touch for a short.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI CRUDE OIL: Oversold offers a buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.383, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 31.641) as the price is approaching the bottom of the 2 month Channel Down. As long as it remains under the 1D MA50, the long term trend will be bearish but the oversold conditions and the 1D MACD, which is replicating the early December 2023 bottom pattern, call for a low risk short term buy opportunity. We are targeting the top of the Channel Down and no higher than the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 76.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by InvestingScope
2024-06-03 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: In my weekly outlook I was bullish for 80 again, unless bears produced strong momentum below 76 and that was basically just on trading hour today where sold off for 232 ticks. 75 was the price I was talking about for weeks now and bears had a strong bear day down to 74. Depending on how you draw the bull trend line from the weekly/monthly chart starting in 2021-08, we are close enough or right on it. I do think bears surprised enough today to get another leg down because they clearly broke below the bear channel from last week. 72 is an obvious next target or the 2023 close at 71.6. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 70-77 bull case: The best the bulls can hope for is sideways movement and maybe a retest of the lower bear channel line around 74.5. Every touch of the 1h 20ema is violently sold and until that changes, bulls have no arguments on their side. They need to keep it above 74 or we will probably see 72 fast. Invalid below 74 bear case: Bears did enough damage today to make bulls very cautious. Breaks below a bear channel with accelerated selling are not that common so it’s a strong breakout. No one knows where most algo’s draw the big bull trend line so we will probably find out over the next days. Right now it’s waiting for a pull-back to maybe the 15m or 1h 20ema where we wait for confirmation of another leg down. I got measured move targets between 70 and 72. short term: Sideways to down - I wait for a pull-back or another strong momentum sell medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this tomorrow or Wednesday trade of the day: Selling while the bar 10 was forming. I told my room to sell at 15:39 and we were short from 75.92 for +90 and immediately after another short on the bounce for +50.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil Price Susceptible to Test of February LowThe price of oil may attempt to test the February low ($71.41) as it falls for the fourth consecutive day. Crude Oil Price Outlook Crude extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards oversold territory, and the oscillator may show the bearish momentum gathering pace should it push 30 for the first time this year. A break/close below the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of oil towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension), with a breach below the February low ($71.41) opening up the January low ($69.28). Nevertheless, failure to break/close below the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may keep the RSI above 30, with a move above $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) area on the radar. --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
#202423 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls rejected 76 area 4 times now. At some point one side will concede and we see a bigger move. Patience pays. Bulls want retest of the daily 20ema and bear channel next (78.8). Afterwards break above the bear channel. Bears had two clear pushes down and now a tripple bottom. I think they will give up and market trades back up again. But I wait for clear confirmation on this. comment: Here is also my comment from last week “Market in total balance 76 - 80. Buy low and sell high. Right now I prefer a spike below to around 75 which bulls gladly buy and we then trade back to 83 over the next weeks. Invalid below 74.” Nothing changed in Oil. Bulls got a very small spike above 80 which was rejected again and we are 77 again. Play the range until we get a breakout with follow through. One funny “coincidence” is that the 50% pull-back from the 2021 low to the 2022 high, is about 78.3 and now guess where the freaking 50% pb of this trading range is. Market is always giving some hints. Learn to spot them. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 76 - 80 bull case: Ascending triangle with around 4 highs and 4 lows. Market is in breakout mode and will probably test lower or higher prices next. I have absolutely no idea where we will break out first so just do the high probability thing here, buy low and sell high when you see good signal bars. Bulls see this as the lows of this trading range and want to reverse here for at least 80 again. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “Kinda neutral 76 - 80. Clear trading range with tails above and below. Market in balance. R:R here is with the bulls for test of daily 20ema at 78.6 again.” → Last Sunday we traded 77.72 and now we are at 76.99. High of the week was 80.62 and I said we will probably at least hit the daily ema again. That was a perfect outlook for at least 90 ticks but could have held til 80 or higher. 80 Would have been 228 ticks. Hope you made some. short term: R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle and now we test the lower trend line again. —unchanged current swing trade: None Update: removed bull flag/bear trend, whatever you want to call it. It’s the same and you trade it the same. Added expanding triangle trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds