how we'll take this chance? BUY: 65.55
TP: 83.59
SL: 64.30
-If trade is higher 89.18, trade will be cancel & another entry area will update
26mar'24 19
QM1! trade ideas
Oil rises in early Asian tradingOil rises in early Asian trading, Middle East tensions remain in focus
Oil prices edged higher in early Asian trading on Tuesday, reversing losses from the previous session, as investors continued to assess the risk from geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.39 a barrel by 0033 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.30 a barrel.
Both benchmarks fell 29 cents in the previous session on signs that a recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran had little near-term impact on oil supplies from the region.
USOIL HTF Daily Rejection Candle indicating us to go SHORT...?NYMEX:CL1!
“If my mind can conceive it and my heart can believe it - then I can achieve it.” - Muhammad Ali
HOUSE CALL for a potential SHORT this week.....This is simple what I'll be looking for!
1) On the Daily TF we have a HUGE rejection Candle at the Daily Resistance leave $84.00 Per Barrell and now Price is currently trading above this Daily Demand Zone that I eventually want to see fail...
2) If and when this Daily Demand Zone fails then I want to see candle closures underneath on the 30m TF & below....
3) Also If this Daily Demand Fails then the Price for OIL will fall underneath $80.00 Per Barrel in which is a big psychological Institution # within the Markets, so I was taught!!
4) If we can get the sequence of events to take place as I stated above then I'll be compelled to enter SHORT off the retest of $80.00 Per Barrel & cover the high for my stop.... Ill be targeting the next Major Un-Mitigated Daily Demand Zone below which is around pricing $77.75 Per Barrel... Roughly around 225 pts in our Favor, we can secure +2.5-3R % Gain depending on your given management system...ALSO once price breaks underneath $80.00 Per Barrel and we have confirmed candle closures underneath on the 30m TF & Below, price also need to be trading underneath the RED V-Wap as a last min. confirmation as its always a higher probable trade when we are trading in favor of the V-Wap IMO>>>
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our Job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
One more shove down before blastoff...?This can get a "c" wave down to the area on the chart, then begin a very bullish wave 5. One step at a time though! Looking for confirmation of a low somewhere between 618 and 886 fibs.
CL-Oil Moving forward..This week I have a eye on 80.50 for price to reach.
We have closed in the weekly fvg and now lying within a Daily FVG and Daily V.i
The Daily V.i is important to reference as Monday we can trade higher into this.
price is at crucial spot81.81-82.30 can play pivotal role for the next movement, if trade above, then 85.25 could be its target zone and if trade below, then oil can reach 78.81
Oil settles slightly higher as Iran plays down reported Israeli Oil settled slightly higher on Friday, but posted a weekly decline, after Iran played down a reported Israeli attack on its soil, a sign that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East might be avoided.
Brent futures settled up 18 cents, or 0.21%, at US$87.29 a barrel.
The front-month US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May ended 41 cents higher, or 0.5%, to US$83.14 a barrel. The more active June contract closed 12 cents higher at US$82.22 a barrel.
Both benchmarks spiked more than US$3 a barrel earlier in the session after explosions were heard in the Iranian city of Isfahan in what sources described as an Israeli attack. However, the gains were capped after Tehran played down the incident and said it did not plan to retaliate.
Investors had been closely monitoring Israel's response to Iranian drone and missile attacks on April 13 that was in turn a response to a presumed Israeli air strike on April 1 that destroyed a building in Iran's embassy compound in Damascus.
Meanwhile, US lawmakers have added sanctions on Iran's oil exports to a pending Ukraine aid package after Tehran's strike on Israel last weekend.
Iran is the third largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), according to Reuters data.
Oil is back into the rodeo areaAnd we are back into the dancing area. Of course the price went up because the news of the war, let's see tomorrow how the prices will dance, if in their "safety area" between 84.01 for longs and 87.60 for shorts... or will be up following Arabia Saudita wishes on 100
Oil leading to end of week.So as in my previous forecast we have now closed daily bellow the Weekly FVG
My next target will be 80.50 by end of week.
Thats it for this week.... :)
Why Is Today's Low Crucial For Crude Oil?Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.15, down 2.68
June WTI Crude Oil futures are now front month and our levels are updated below. A sharp move, in this case the two-day drop, is not uncommon during times of roll and post option expiration as Crude Oil tends to cleanse positioning. With geopolitics front and center as the weekend approaches, major three-star support was tested head on at 80.78-81.06. This aligns with the gap close and gap open after a pennant consolidation from March 20th through March 27th.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 82.70-82.82**, 83.32-83.44***, 84.01-84.39***
Pivot: 82.01-82.15
Support: 81.45**, 80.78-81.11***, 80.12***, 78.80-79.02***, 78.01-78.43
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Geopolitical Conflicts and Markets - Market outperform the rest!Which market is a better hedge when a geopolitical conflict started. I know many will say that it must be crude oil. Over the past 2 major conflicts, we could see that crude oil did not gain any momentum, in fact it came off.
So which markets have reacted positively to all these tensions so far, and will continue to remain this way with future tensions?
My name is Kon How, my work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities.
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Scalpers paradise is a thingLet's see where we are by the 5-7am EST window. This view is a combination of Elliott Wave analysis and supply/demand zones. Can be a powerful combo for scalping.
Crude Oil Futures Trade In a Narrow RangeTechnical Momentum Weakens
Crude Oil futures have stalled after rising in 2024 after trading at the upper price band of $88/barrel and lower price band of $84/barrel. The technical perspective shows momentum studies correcting from overbought territories, with the 9-day moving average stalling above 18-day. DMI + is narrowing in on DMI -, indicating that the market is consolidating, while the Average True Range firms to $1.66 per day.
EIA Inventories Rise
EIA Inventory tightness has reversed recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Current EIA inventories are 457 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 466 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Mid-West have also narrowed recently, showing 33 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 40 million barrels.
Recent API Data has shown another build of 4 million barrels.
An Expanding Economic Tailwind
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, fueling investor sentiment. Geopolitical Tension also plays a wildcard with the possibility of a widening Middle-Eastern conflict.
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Is crude oil about to crap the bed? 80.32 coming soon? Had a decent chance for a long setup, but this move today is pushing the limits on bullish structure. Now there is a clear setup for lower if this level breaks. LOB
Learning to survive in the bouncer. The oil moves in an established area, if it touches 84 it will go up and if it touches 87 it will go down, until it is encouraged to establish new records, the key is to catch the same step as the oil to dance together.
Crude Oil Consolidating Within UptrendCrude oil stabilized this week around $84 per barrel on the May 2024 contract, from which we are seeing some nice rebounds after recent events between Iran and Israel. There is a risk that this escalation will not be over anytime soon, so energy prices may remain in an uptrend, possibly heading for a higher fifth wave back above last week's highs. If the market suddenly breaks below $84, there could still be support around $83.50, justifying a more complex pullback for wave four, but still indicative of a correction.
The Crude Oil SetupCrude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 85.41, down 0.25
Crude Oil futures have traded in a quiet range, going back through last week, outside of an early Friday morning geopolitical spike. A slate of economic data from China last night printed better Q1 GDP results at 5.3% versus 4.8%, but Industrial Production and Retail Sales whiffed. However, U.S. Retail Sales yesterday came in much stronger than expected, leading to a revision higher in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.8%. It is important to note that Crude Oil has reacted favorably to surprisingly resilient and strong U.S. economic data, especially that which highlights the consumer.
Waves of weakness over the last week have helped define a floor at $84 and just above, while the gap settlement from April 1st sits just below at 83.71. This establishes a line in the sand in which the bulls can become more comfortable leaning against. However, a break below could quickly open the floodgates.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.72-85.86**, 86.09-86.29**, 86.81**, 87.34-87.67***, 88.37-88.64***
Pivot: 85.32-85.35
Support: 84.69***, 84.04-84.33***, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Oil bouncing in it's safe area Looks like oil found its secure area for now, just bouncing between 84.01 and 87.60. Giving us short longs and small shorts hourly.
Crude Oil WTI ~ If $85 holds, then this count projects higher Standard ratio between Elliott Waves 1 through 3 versus wave 5 is 618/886 zone, which is shown in an aqua box. Call the target the $92 region for wave 5 of some degree.
Crude Oil MondayAs in previous post on Sunday -
So we have dipped our toes into the weekly fvg
May leave a low in place here to raid it again later, want to see weekley CE respected.. as its London and Monday this could be the judas swing... wait for more info and cme or 830 open.
Any Longs from me will need market to show displacement on 15min or 1hr tf... no rush
New supercycle soonI think that now there is wave 2 of the big 3rd wave of the supercycle. So in a few years oil will break its highs.
