Crude Oil and the BOS bearish move might steps in?Watching the volume rising is a good confirmation for the Bearish Bias.
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QM1! trade ideas
Oil Went Back to 'Pre-conflict' Level on Israel-Iran Ceasefire The Israel-Iran ceasefire has triggered a sharp reversal in global oil markets, sending prices tumbling back to levels seen before the recent conflict. Brent crude ICEEUR:BRN1! fell below $70 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate NYMEX:CL1! dropped to around $65, erasing the risk premium that had built up during nearly two weeks of hostilities. This rapid decline—nearly 17% from the conflict’s peak—reflects investor relief that the threat of major supply disruptions, especially through the vital Strait of Hormuz, has receded for now.
However, the outlook remains uncertain. While the ceasefire has calmed immediate fears, the truce is fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations within hours of its announcement. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is still subdued, insurance costs for tankers remain elevated, and some shipowners are steering clear of the region, indicating persistent caution in energy logistics.
If the ceasefire holds, markets may stabilize further, supporting global economic recovery and easing inflationary pressures.
But any renewed escalation or disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse these gains, keeping energy markets on alert for further geopolitical shocks.
The main technical graph for Dec'25 WTI Futures NYMEX:CLZ2025 indicates on 'cup and handle' technical structure with the nearest support around $62 per bll, and further 'double top' price action in upcoming development.
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40–50% Decline Possible for Crude OilLight Crude Oil Futures broke below a descending triangle and re-tested the breakdown level on volume twice as high as the 50 day moving average (daily chart). I anticipate a 40–50% decline to approximately $30–40 over the next 6–12 months, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This move aligns with a broader macro correction. Long-term, I remain bullish on oil.
Crude Oil Weekly OutlookNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1!
With Nasdaq futures hitting all-time highs, our attention now turns to Crude Oil, which has seen a sharp pullback over the past week.
All-time highs in equity indices present a unique challenge:
There are no historical reference points—no prior price or volume data to lean against. Traders typically turn to tools like Fibonacci extensions, measured moves, or rely on market-generated information and emerging intraday levels before making decisions.
What Has the Market Done?
Crude Oil Futures (CL) posted a record drop last week, falling sharply from a Sunday open high of $78.40 to a Monday close low of $64.38—a $14.02 decline.
This sharp sell-off followed developments suggesting a potential Iran–Israel ceasefire and the end of a two-week conflict, prompting markets to rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium.
What is it trying to do?
CL Futures have since consolidated around the 2025 mid-range. The market appears to be in a balancing phase, digesting the removal of war-related premiums and recalibrating based on fundamentals.
How Good of a Job Is It Doing?
Having effectively priced out war risk, the market is now refocusing on fundamentals.
The global demand outlook is improving, driven in part by progress in trade deals.
OPEC’s June Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d for 2025.
This transition from headline risk to fundamental drivers indicates market maturity and resilience, albeit within a still-volatile regime.
What Is More Likely to Happen From Here?
Today marks the final trading day of the month, and seasonal demand will become increasingly relevant.
Summer weather and travel activity are expected to drive demand for jet fuel and gasoline.
These seasonal tailwinds, if sustained, could help stabilize price action around key technical zones.
Key Levels:
yOpen: 67.65
pHi: 66.09
pIB Hi: 66
2025 mid-range: 65.39
pLow: 64.80
Overnight Low: 64.55
Naked VPOC: 64.50
Scenario 1: Continued Consolidation (Balance Holds)
Crude oil maintains range-bound behavior.
Strategy: “Outside-in” trading—fade moves at range extremes until new directional information emerges.
Scenario 2: Break from Balance
If directional conviction builds, price could break the current consolidation.
Upside target: Yearly open near $67.65.
Downside risk: March 2025 low if $64.40 fails.
All intraday levels noted above should be monitored for structure and participation.
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well.
#mcl1 - wti crude oil futures
comment: Yeah I don’t know about this one. Your guess is as good as mine. I could even see this touching 63 before going higher again. Most erratic and extreme price action the past 2 weeks, so maybe wait a bit before jumping the train here.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 63 - 80
bull case: Bulls don’t have much. They could not close one decent bar at the high since 2025-06-11 and despite all the bull spikes, we only sold afterwards and are back below 65 where the extreme breakout happened. Best guess here is that we stay above 63 and go sideways. Sideways up to where? No idea. Could be 68, could be 70.
Invalidation is below 63
bear case: Too extreme. Both sides have to take quick profits or the next spike will take them away again. So most likely sideways in a range until a newsbomb hit again. Range could be 63 - 68.
Invalidation is above 79
short term: Neutral. Not touching this unless someone threatens me with a gun.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: Let’s leave this as “todo” for now. No read on this and I won’t make stuff up just to post something.
Crudeoil is near a strong support one can buy with a tight stopCrudeoil is near a strong support one can buy with a tight stop
OIL - is going to hit $50I expect the drop in OIl will go on
During such big news as potential WW3 price bararly rose
Also on bigger time frame price only reached 2nd vwap deviation
that's why after some consolidation price will go down toward range LOW
Geopolitical tensions is making oil fun to tradeFor the unexperienced traders, be very careful trading NYSE:CL , you can get caught anytime wether you are long or short right or wrong.
Nevertheless, if you follow my LIS, you can have a clear picture of where oil is heading to.
Right now, oil is set up as bearish but it can change in a matter of a bomb. Jokes aside, the LIS stands at 67.8. So below still bearish, above turn bullish.
OIL Bullish BiasCurrently sitting on my hands but closely watching oil, especially after Iran & Israel
Consolidation Protocol active. Need to see external range taken. I will not trade inside this range. Favoring longs.
Think accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Right now its in the accumulation phase. Manipulation phase is next. Preferably sweeping external low first then distribution higher to bsl.
Relative equal highs / LRLR at 114.29 first long term target.
Final target are the inefficiencies at 130 - 150.
CL1! Structural NarrativeResearch Idea
If look we beyond surface appearances, we would ask what kind of iterative, generative, or probabilistic mechanisms could have created those movements. Complexity can arise from simplicity, and that what looks messy may follow deep mathematical logic.
We can see the curve that connects series rejections that exposes where selling pressure extends compression until broken.
Another pattern would be current price expressed as a fibonacci ratio of a broader cycle as it splits them into phases.
Crudeoil bullish momentum coming with help of technicals Crudeoil creating RSI divergence
THE MOVEMENT WILL COME AFTER RSI CROSS ABOVE 55
CRUDE OIL poised to go UP AGAIN? Usually my posts on crude oil are short. but here’s a longer one for a change.
Back in December, I predicted that crude oil would hit the highlighted zone around $57. That’s exactly what happened, hit the target and bounced.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen wild swings in crude oil prices as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated. But now, following the ceasefire announcement brokered by President Trump, and considering Iran’s response over the past couple of days, crude oil has dropped below its pre-conflict price levels.
While I truly hope for a peaceful world where no innocent lives are harmed, my personal view is that this ceasefire feels fragile and may not last long.
So, what’s next for crude oil? Up or down?
If the ceasefire holds and we don’t see further conflict in the Middle East, I think crude oil could hover in the $65–$75 range. There’s even a slim chance we dip as low as $45.
However, based on my technical analysis model, and my doubts about the durability of the ceasefire, I expect oil prices to rise in the next 6 to 9 months. My targets? $78 and $85.
Of course, I might be wrong this time. :)
Cheers!
Oil Price: Breakout or Fakeout? Watch This Zone Closely Technical Overview:
The current price action is testing the upper boundary of a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern. The recent strong green candle indicates a potential breakout attempt, yet price is hovering near a critical resistance level at $74.20 (Fib 0.5).
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement are:
🔼 Resistance at $74.20 (0.5), then $78.16 (0.618)
🧲 Local support at $69.78 (0.382)
🛡️ Strong demand zone near $63.81 (0.236) if rejection occurs
Structure + Patterns:
Price has been compressing inside a falling wedge, which statistically resolves to the upside.
The breakout candle broke above the 20 EMA and touched the upper wedge resistance — signaling a decision point.
Volume is rising on bullish candles — initial confirmation of buyer interest, but not yet decisive.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Case:
Break and close above $74.20 on higher volume → likely move toward $78–$86 resistance zone.
Confirmation of wedge breakout could trigger trend reversal, aligning with bullish fib levels.
Momentum could accelerate if macro factors support demand (see geopolitics below).
Bearish Case:
Failure to close above $74.20 = fakeout risk → price may reject down to $69.78 or even retest $63.81.
Bearish rejection wick on the daily/4H would be an early signal.
Macro & Geopolitical Factors to Monitor:
Middle East Tensions: Any escalation (especially around Iran or shipping lanes) could spike oil due to supply fears.
US Strategic Reserves & Elections: Moves to refill reserves or control inflation could support demand.
China Demand Recovery: Data showing improved industrial output or stimulus from PBoC may strengthen global oil outlook.
Final Thoughts:
Price is at a pivot zone — breaking this wedge with strength could shift the short-to-midterm trend. Until then, this remains a "show me" breakout . Watch how the next 1–2 weekly candles close around the $74–$75 area to confirm direction.
Crude Oil Bullish BiasThree years ago, I predicted that oil would trade below $61 when the price was around $118. Price traded to $55 and is now up to $68. I now believe price has exhausted sell-side liquidity and will trade higher, possibly seeing $95 and beyond.
*Not financial advice
Crude Oil Prices Rocketing amid geopolitical risks
NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! NYMEX:BZ1!
Macro:
Geopolitical tensions remain high and markets are now likely to price in our scenario discussing ongoing air and missile war, given one-off intervention from the US thus far. According to Reuters, the U.S. now assesses that Iranian retaliation could occur within the next two days.What happens next is anybody’s guess but as traders, it is important to navigate these uncertainties with scenario planning and/or reduce risk to account for increased volatility.
We also get Services and Manufacturing PMI data today and PCE Price Index on Friday. Chair Powell is set to testify on Tuesday 9am CT.
Key levels:
Jan 2025 High: 76.57
2025 High: 78.40
2025 CVAH(Composite Value Area High): 75.68
Key LIS zone: 73.50-73.15
We anticipate the following scenarios in crude oil:
Scenario 1:
Prices remain elevated as tensions remain high, despite limited retaliation, however, the situation overall now escalated beyond return to diplomacy.
Scenario 2:
Any push towards de-escalation, unlikely in our analysis, but given the headline risk, crude prices may remain volatile and come off the highs.
Given our key LIS (Line in Sand) zone above, we favor longs above this and shorts below this zone.
Crude Oil Testing $75 Resistance with Key Price Movements Targets:
- T1 = $78.00
- T2 = $80.50
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $74.00
- S2 = $72.50
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Crude Oil.
**Key Insights:**
Crude Oil has been holding strong amid mixed macroeconomic data, with traders noting resilience around the $75 price level acting as a key support. Recent production cuts by OPEC+ have further tightened supply, providing support for bullish sentiment. Dollar weakness also boosts commodity prices, as global markets eye policy decisions from central banks.
Additionally, technical indicators suggest upward momentum is building. RSI levels are nearing overbought zones but remain favorable for a continued upward push. Moving averages show upward crossover patterns, signaling strong bullish possibilities.
**Recent Performance:**
Crude Oil has seen fluctuating performance over the last month, with prices rebounding from lows of $72 and climbing steadily to current levels. A temporary pullback earlier in the week was followed by renewed buying interest, demonstrating the strength of underlying bullish sentiment despite volatile macroeconomic conditions.
**Expert Analysis:**
Industry analysts highlight that geopolitical risks and tightening supply conditions could lead to further upward price pressure. The $75.13 level corresponds to a critical juncture that traders are closely watching for breakouts. A breach above this level would likely signal further upside momentum, potentially reaching the $80 mark as broader optimism prevails.
**News Impact:**
Recent news surrounding OPEC+ production strategies and lower inventories in key storage hubs like Cushing have contributed to bullish sentiment. Simultaneously, macroeconomic factors — including U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve remarks — are influencing crude oil’s directional moves, albeit in a secondary role.
**Trading Recommendation:**
A bullish position is recommended on Crude Oil as it continues to show potential for a breakout above current resistance levels. Traders should aim for targets of $78.00 and $80.50, using stop-loss orders at $74.00 and $72.50 to mitigate downside risks. Current technical setups and macroeconomic signals support upward momentum, making this a favorable opportunity for disciplined trading.
WTI(oil)For oil, what I have in mind, considering the conditions we are in, if the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, we will remain at the same prices, that is, $75 to $80. But if the Strait is closed 100%, the price will go up to $130 and $150 in the short term.
A barrel at $130? Not unless Hormuz closes for good.As tensions in the Middle East between Iran, Israel and the United States escalate, speculation about a $130 oil barrel resurfaces on the markets. While the recent rise in prices is very real, fuelled by geopolitics, there is nothing in the fundamentals or in the technical analysis to justify such an extreme scenario for the time being. Unless... the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Here are some explanations.
1) Oil rebounds, but no technical red alert
Since its low point in May, oil prices have surged by over 40%, buoyed by regional tensions and renewed volatility. The market is anticipating a rise in geopolitical risk, but for the time being, this recovery is not being accompanied by any technical red flags.
Indicators such as the COT report (Commitment of Traders), volumes and key technical thresholds on WTI and Brent are not confirming extreme tension at the current stage, as long as US oil remains below resistance at $80 a barrel. Although the 200-day moving average has been breached, and the reintegration of the $65 level has provided the starting point for a bullish impulse, the price of oil is now at a technical crossroads.
The chart below shows a bearish resistance line (red) on WTI, and the same applies to Brent. If these resistances were to be breached, this would be a strong bullish warning signal for the price of a barrel of oil towards $90/95.
2) A market under pressure... but framed by OPEC
Indeed, only a major supply constraint can push oil up to $130 a barrel.
The current geopolitical context comes at the worst possible time for OPEC. The oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, had recently decided to increase production after years of restrictions. The objectives were to respond to what was seen as robust demand, win back market share from US producers and punish less disciplined members.
In May, June and July, an increase of 411,000 barrels per day is scheduled. In other words, the market is receiving additional supply, which mechanically limits the risk of a speculative surge, barring a major exogenous shock such as the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
3) Iran/Israel/USA: the market prices the risk, but doesn't panic. Traders are currently considering three scenarios:
1. Tougher sanctions against Iran, reducing supply by 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.
2. A targeted attack on Iran's oil infrastructure.
3. A temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The first two cases can be absorbed by the market, notably thanks to the production capacities of other OPEC+ members or the strategic release of reserves. On the other hand, blocking the Strait of Hormuz would be a “game changer”.
The Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is the gateway to 20% of the world's oil supply, i.e. some 17 to 18 million barrels a day. It is also a vital route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from Qatar.
Even a partial shutdown would have an immediate impact on all logistics chains and the energy security of importing countries, and would trigger a brutal price shock. In this case, oil at 130 dollars would no longer be an extreme hypothesis, but a plausible scenario in the very short term.
The situation is, of course, evolving, and investors need to keep an eye out for weak signals: military movements in the Strait, targeted attacks on energy infrastructures, bellicose rhetoric. In the absence of a blockade of Hormuz, the fundamentals (rising OPEC production, slowing Chinese demand, technical stability) militate in favor of a ceiling of around $80/90.
A barrel at $130? Yes, but only if Hormuz closes completely.
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What Is the Base Price or Long-term Support for Crude Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well.
I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume.
The cost of goods varies between producers and merchants, and then from merchants to end consumers. However, it all starts with the producer. Before a producer acquires oil for refining, they reference crude oil prices as a benchmark to decide whether to make a purchase or hold back.
So, “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
As we can see from the yearly chart, in every few years the base price of crude oil keeps adjusting higher; in levels and stages.
There is also this parallel channel formed by joining across its troughs and mirror it to its prominent resistance, we can observe crude oil prices range bound between this broad uptrend over time.
We can try to apply this analysis to other commodities; we will find a similar broad uptrend across most of them. But why? Because of inflation.
Regarding the bottom-line support for crude oil, we observed that it was at $10 from the 1980s until the turn of the millennium. Over time, accounting for inflation, this support level shifted upward to around $30 from the early 2000s until 2020, the year of COVID-19. And now we can see there is a new support at $60 since the start of 2020.
How to explain this break below $30 base price and went to -$40?
In technical analysis, this break is considered a false break, because, at the close of that year, on this yearly chart, prices settled above the support line at $30.
The story behind this is that when COVID hit, airlines were grounded, leading to storage issues for large quantities of oil. It cost more to store the oil than its selling price, which caused prices to drop below zero, reaching as low as -$40. But prices ultimately found its equilibrium and settle at a fair value at $48 that year.
Where is the support for crude oil, and what is its current direction?
This was a video analysis on Sep 2024, in this weekly chart, we can see a wedge pattern. Then I believe if the price breaks above this downtrend line, it suggests that we may see higher crude oil prices. And this analysis is taking shape today.
We can see prices initially broke above this trendline, but shortly sink below and broke this support line at $66 to $55. And today we are at $73 after the renewal of the Middle East tension.
How should I interpret the move to the recent low around $55?
I would encourage to always discover the development with different time frame as time progress.
Switching to the yearly chart, we observed that crude oil is still supported above $60 that year.
Please also make a point to adjust this downtrend line from time to time as market dynamic changes.
Watch the full video:
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
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Missiles Flying! Buy OIL, GOLD! Sell the Stock Indices!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 22-28th.
This is a revision of the Weekly Forecast I posted yesterday! With the latest US strikes into Iran nuke sites, the fundamentals go from zero to a hundred! Risk on turns immediately to risk off, and gap opens are likely to present themselves.
Look to long the safe havens and short the equities until tensions ease.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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#202525 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Many gaps on different time frames and I only marked the ones from the daily. Next targets above for the bulls are 80 and the 2023-09 high at 82.91. I think we can see a futures gap up above 81 and then another huge pullback. Supply shock for Oil is still not there or we would not see the market pull back that much. Given the current macro risk we can only expect higher prices but the swings are too wild for me tbh.
current market cycle: bull trend but trading range on 1h tf
key levels: 67 - 83
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side. Their only issue is that we are still seeing 5-10% intraday swings to both sides and only if the pull backs become smaller and we leave gaps behind, can we go meaningful higher and stay there. We have two open gaps on the daily chart but market would have to stay above 70 now to confirm them. 77 is the next target for the bulls which would be a higher high above the 2024-04 high.
Invalidation is below 70 - if we drop below, we most likely continue sideways inside the big range until we maybe get another big breakout above
bear case: US bombs on Iran. Interesting to see if we stay below 77 and move sideways. I can not see it but I obviously did not saw the 11% pullback on Monday as well. That was insane. Best bears can hope for is to move sideways and continue with the deep pullbacks. Bears can also make big money on these wild swings, which is not something seen in strong bull trends.
Invalidation is above 77
short term: Bullish but too cautious to trade it. Future gap ups were sold heavily and market has not found acceptance above 73 for the entire week. Still expecting 77 to get hit and there is no reason why we can’t see 80$ on oil over next 2 weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: No bigger opinion other than “don’t be a bear here”. No idea if market can sustain the buying and stay above 70 for longer or even 80 for that matter. Too many big risks which will move the market big time.
Why Oil Stays Bullish: Israel-Iran and the APMMCurrent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have precipitated significant volatility in global oil markets. This study analyzes the immediate and medium-term impacts of the conflict on oil prices utilizing the Advanced Petroleum Market Model (APMM), a multifactorial fundamental analysis framework. The analysis reveals that both robust supply fundamentals and geopolitical risk premiums are currently supporting oil prices at elevated levels.
1. Introduction
Global energy markets are experiencing upward pressure from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israeli military actions against Iranian targets have triggered immediate oil price responses, with Brent crude rising up to 10% and reaching the highest levels since January 2024 (Al Jazeera, 2024). The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade flows, remains central to geopolitical risk pricing in oil markets (CNBC, 2024).
2. Current APMM Market Assessment
The Advanced Petroleum Market Model currently indicates a Bullish (Weak) regime with a composite score of 69.1 and a rising trend. Supply indicators are bullish, inventory and demand are neutral. The model's adaptive status shows it is successfully adjusting to current market conditions.
3. Market and Model-Based Scenario Analysis
- Brent Crude: 5-7% increase to over $87/barrel
- WTI Crude: 6% daily gain
- Geopolitical Risk Premium: $8-12/barrel (Goldman Sachs, 2024)
The APMM's current reading suggests oil markets are in a "Fundamental Support Regime" reinforced by geopolitical risk premiums. Geopolitical uncertainty is inherently bullish for oil prices as it increases supply disruption risks and drives precautionary demand.
Scenario Probabilities
- Base Scenario (65%): Bullish (Weak) regime persists, prices stabilize at $75-85/barrel
- Escalation (25%): Strong Bullish regime, prices at $85-95/barrel
- Extreme (10%): Extreme Bullish regime, prices above $100/barrel
4. Long-term and Policy Implications
- Diversification: Importers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern oil
- Strategic Reserves: Governments reconsider reserve strategies
- Energy Transition: Geopolitical risks strengthen investments in renewables
5. Conclusion
Despite robust supply, oil prices are supported by both fundamentals and persistent geopolitical risk premiums. The APMM reflects this environment with a Bullish (Weak) signal and rising trend. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key bullish factor for oil markets.
References
Al Jazeera. (2024). Oil prices spike as Israel strikes Iran amid Middle East tensions.
Armstrong Economics. (2024). Oil Prices & the Israel-Iran Crisis - A Historical Perspective.
BBC. (2024). Israel Iran: What could conflict mean for oil and gas prices?
Chen, S., Liu, P., & Wang, J. (2024). Uncertainty about interest rates and crude oil prices. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 1-28.
CNBC. (2024). Oil prices could spike to $95 if Iran-Israel conflict escalates, Goldman Sachs warns.
Goldman Sachs. (2024). Commodities Research: Middle East Risk Premium in Oil Markets.
Al-Shboul, M., & Alqaralleh, H. (2025). Dynamic Effects of Economic Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risks on Saudi Stock Market Returns. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(1), 12.
