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QM1! trade ideas

Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis: We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today. Fundamental analysis: Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
The Hidden Power of Median Price: A Recent Oil Market Case StudyIntroduction In the world of trading, most market participants focus on popular patterns and oscillators, often missing the true “magnet” zones that drive price action. A recent move in Crude Oil (CL) perfectly illustrates how the prior year’s median price (PYM) can act as a powerful, objective key level—one that offers traders an informational edge when recognized and used properly. Case Study: Oil’s Rally to the Prior Year Median What Happened? • Catalyst: Crude Oil (CL) surged several dollars overnight due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the risk of war in the Middle East. • Key Level Test: Instead of stalling at arbitrary points, price rallied directly to the prior year’s median price—a level rarely plotted by standard indicators. • Market Reaction: Upon reaching this PYM, oil rejected sharply not once, but twice in consecutive sessions, creating what many would recognize as a double top. • Missed Context: While most traders saw only the double top pattern, those aware of the PYM understood the deeper reason for this reversal, adding conviction to their trade ideas. Why the Median Price Matters • Objective Anchor: The median price of the prior year is a statistically robust, non-arbitrary level that reflects the “center of gravity” for a full year’s worth of price action. • Institutional Awareness: Professionals and trading algorithms often use these levels as reference points for liquidity and mean reversion, even if retail traders overlook them. • Trade Conviction: When a double top or reversal forms at a prior year’s median price, it transforms a generic pattern into a high-conviction setup, providing a clear, data-driven reason for price to reverse or stall. Data Snapshot: CL Price Action (June 2025) Date High Low Close Event/Reaction June 12, 2025 $77.52 $69.50 $73.96 Sharp rally to PYM, first rejection June 14, 2025 $74.02 $71.48 $72.98 Second push, another rejection June 15, 2025 $74.22 $73.19 $73.69 Double top confirmed The $74–$77 area aligns with the 2024 median/average price for WTI crude oil, reinforcing its significance as a magnet and reversal zone. Lessons for Traders • Beyond Oscillators: Oscillators and generic chart patterns often lack context and can lead to false signals. Key levels like the median price explain why price reverses, not just where patterns form. • Edge Through Awareness: Plotting prior year medians and other session-based key levels can turn ordinary setups into high-probability trades by revealing hidden order flow and institutional logic. • Professional Mindset: Treating these levels as “market memory” aligns your approach with how professionals view the market, offering a real edge over retail-centric tools. Conclusion The recent oil rally and rejection at the prior year’s median price is a compelling demonstration of the power of objective, price-based key levels. While most traders saw only a double top, those aware of the PYM had a clear, data-driven reason for heightened conviction and precise execution. Incorporating such levels into your trading toolkit can provide a true informational edge—one that most indicator vendors and platforms still ignore. Ready to take your trading to the next level? Start plotting median price levels and see the difference for yourself!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by PonoTrading
CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025🛢️ CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025 🎯 Instrument: CL (Crude Oil Futures) 📉 Strategy: Short Swing 📅 Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Confidence: 68% 🔍 Model Insights Recap 🧠 Grok/xAI – Bearish due to overbought RSI + price stalling near MAs 🤖 Claude/Anthropic – Bearish pullback expected, despite recent strength 📊 Llama/Meta – Overextended Bollinger Band + RSI = short bias 🧬 DeepSeek – Supports downside via divergence + high volatility ⚠️ Gemini/Google – Bullish thesis based on momentum; diverges from consensus 📉 Consensus Takeaway While short-term momentum is strong, most models forecast a pullback due to: 🔼 Overbought RSI readings 📈 Price extended well above key moving averages 🧨 High volatility and profit-taking zone near $73–$74 ✅ Recommended Trade Setup Metric Value 🔀 Direction Short 🎯 Entry Price $72.65 🛑 Stop Loss $74.20 🎯 Take Profit $68.80 📏 Size 1 contract 📈 Confidence 68% ⏰ Timing Market Open ⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations 🌍 Geopolitical events or OPEC news can cause unexpected surges 📉 If bullish momentum resumes, upside breakout could invalidate short thesis 📏 Risk management is critical—stick to stop-loss if price breaks above $74.20 🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) json Copy Edit { "instrument": "CL", "direction": "short", "entry_price": 72.65, "stop_loss": 74.20, "take_profit": 68.80, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.68, "entry_timing": "market_open" } 💡 Watch price action at the open. If oil opens weak or fails to reclaim $73, this short setup has a strong edge.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantsignals
Geopolitics (Iran/Israel), 6 relevant risk barometersGeopolitics is in the spotlight this week, along with the FED's monetary policy decision. Geopolitical news is covered by the general media, so there's no need here to repeat information that's accessible to everyone. We therefore propose to review our selection of stock market barometers which, in our opinion, best measure the intensity of geopolitical risk. 1) Oil and natural gas prices Naturally, oil price trends are the main barometer of the geopolitical risk of the current confrontation between Israel and Iran. Although Iran accounts for just 3% of the world's oil supply, the region itself represents 20%, and above all there is a risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's oil supply passes. Technical analysis of the oil price is therefore the primary tool for measuring the intensity of current geopolitical tensions. The price of oil recently returned to the former technical support of $65, but there is no major bullish technical signal as long as the price of US crude oil remains below resistance at $80. We must therefore keep a close eye on the $80 threshold for US oil. 2) The trend of the S&P 500 index, the benchmark of Western finance The equity market is the second barometer of geopolitical risk that we offer. The most important thing is to select the stock indices that best represent the perception of geopolitical tensions. We believe that the S&P 500 future contract does this job well, as it is the most widely traded stock market futures index in terms of volume by global high finance. A few days ago, we published a detailed graphical analysis of the S&P500 index, which you can consult by clicking on the image below. 3) Trends on the main stock markets in the Near and Middle East Equity markets in the Near and Middle East are excellent indicators of the current perception of geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. We suggest you take a look at the Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange (Tadawul), the region's largest in terms of market capitalization. Naturally, you should also follow the trend of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange's flagship index, the TA 35, as well as that of the Egyptian stock market. These markets have the advantage of being open on Sundays, and are often a good early indicator of trends in Asia and Europe for Monday morning. 4) The trend of the US dollar (DXY) on the foreign exchange market (Forex) and of gold on the commodities market On the floating foreign exchange market (FX), it is the US dollar that plays to the full its safe-haven aspect. In the event of geopolitical tensions spiraling out of control, it would make a strong bullish reversal. This week, however, the US dollar will be under the influence of the FED. So it's best to trust gold's trend as a barometer of geopolitical risk. Geopolitics is not necessarily the dominant fundamental factor, but rather the dynamics of interest rates and the US dollar. 5) The TRUFLATION trend If current geopolitical tensions were to become a major global shock, international trade would be disrupted, and transport difficulties would lead to a sharp rise in prices, particularly for raw materials and industrial goods. This potential price rise would then be rapidly reflected in TRUFLATION, the benchmark for real-time price dynamics in the USA. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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NYMEX:CL1!
by Swissquote
WTI(20250617)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Revised version of the Republican tax cut bill in the US Senate: It is planned to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion, and the overall framework is consistent with the House version. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 70.41 Support and resistance levels: 75.98 73.90 72.55 68.27 66.92 64.84 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 72.55, consider buying, and the first target price is 73.90 If the price breaks through 70.41, consider selling, and the first target price is 68.27
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
Oil Rebounds to $59 as US Inventories Drop – Reversal Ahead?After recent declines, crude oil futures (CL1!) staged a modest recovery during Thursday’s session, trading near $59.10 per barrel. The rebound comes as US crude inventories unexpectedly dropped, easing concerns about oversupply and providing a short-term lift to prices. Key Drivers Behind the Rebound US Inventory Drawdown – The latest EIA report showed a decline in crude stockpiles, signaling stronger demand and helping prices stabilize. Technical Support Holds Firm – The bounce aligns with a critical daily demand zone, which previously acted as a strong support level on the weekly chart. Market Sentiment Shifts – While retail traders remain bearish, commercial traders (often considered "smart money") are increasing long positions, hinting at a potential trend reversal. Traders should watch for follow-through buying to confirm whether this is a short-term correction or the start of a larger reversal. Bottom Line: Oil’s rebound is fueled by fundamentals (lower inventories) and technicals (strong demand zone). With commercial traders betting on higher prices, the stage may be set for a bullish reversal—if buyers sustain momentum. ✅ Please share your thoughts about CL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXN1
2
WTI(20250616)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 71.11 Support and resistance levels: 78.59 75.79 73.98 68.24 66.43 63.64 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 73.98, consider buying in, the first target price is 75.79 If the price breaks through 71.11, consider selling in, the first target price is 68.24
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude Oil - we follow up with the momenetumCrude Oil Analysis: Why Prices Could Keep Rising Amid Israel-Iran Conflict? 🛢 🛢 🛢 📈 📈 📈The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have significantly intensified geopolitical risk in the Middle East—home to a third of the world’s oil supply. As hostilities escalate, crude oil prices are poised for continued upward momentum due to three key factors: 1️⃣ Supply Disruption Fears: The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which 20% of global oil flows, could be compromised if Iran retaliates or is targeted more directly. Any disruption—even speculative—typically sends prices higher. 2️⃣ Production Uncertainty: Iran, a major OPEC member, may face new sanctions or physical damage to infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran could also target regional energy infrastructure, including in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, shrinking global supply. 3️⃣ Market Sentiment and Risk Premiums: Investors tend to price in risk quickly. With oil markets already tight due to OPEC+ cuts and tepid U.S. production growth, heightened instability adds a strong speculative premium. Bottom Line: Unless the Israel-Iran conflict de-escalates, crude oil has a strong bullish case. With limited spare capacity globally and increased geopolitical fragility, expect prices to remain elevated or climb further—especially if rhetoric turns into regional escalation. 💡 💡 📌 Trade plan ⬇️ Entry : On market open ✅Target : 79.00 ❌SL: 64.00
PYTH:WTI3!Long
by DG55Capital
#202524 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Good week for oil bulls but still a lower high below the April high 78.1. Now what? If this buying is the real thing and market is expecting higher prices for longer, the pullback will stay above 70. If bulls do that, we can expect at least a second leg up to retest 75+ or even 80+. We are seeing a full on war between Israel and Iran but you should not trade based on that. There are bulls who bought above 73 on Friday and lost Money so far. current market cycle: trading range 54 - 78 on the weekly tf. Decent chance we are in a bull trend that could lead to 80/84 or higher. key levels: 70 - 77 bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side. They now need to leave a big open gap to 69.3 and then we can do a measured move up. My lowest target for that is 80. Structure on the 1h chart is a textbook two-legged pullback and above 74.5 it’s a clear buy signal. Invalidation is below 70.8 but can likely also be 70 bear case: Bears do not have much. They trapped late bulls on Friday and that’s a likely reason we sold off 677 ticks from the high. They need lower lows below 70.8 and close the gap to the Thursday high before the news-bomb hit. For that to happen they have to break 2 bull trend lines. I will not look for shorts on this tbh. Invalidation is above 74.5 short term: Bullish. Maybe a bit more sideways but I have given two invalidation prices for bulls and couple of targets above. I don’t think looking for shorts makes any sense unless you are really good at scalping. medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-15: Maybe we have seen the 2-year trading range coming to an end on Friday and we are in a new bull trend that could lead oil to 80 or higher. Right now it’s pure guesswork until we print higher highs above Friday’s 77.62. Oil above 80 is not something we have seen since end of 2023 so expect some ripples.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Oil | Long | Smart Money Accumulation | (June 2025)Oil | Long | Geopolitical Conflict & Smart Money Accumulation | (June 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: We're watching a long-term bullish setup in crude oil, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, smart money accumulation, and a potential reclaim of key levels from a historic triangle pattern. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: LongEntry: Watching for a reclaim of the $72 level (re-entry into triangle zone)Stop Loss: $62 (just below the recent liquidation zone) TP1: $106 TP2: $116 TP3: $123 3️⃣ Key Notes: This setup originates from a macro triangle structure formed since September 2012. Oil broke out post-2020 and surged, but recent volatility has shaken out many long positions—especially those from around $60.8. A reclaim of $72 would indicate a failed auction and potential continuation higher. Geopolitical instability—particularly in the Middle East—continues to provide bullish tailwinds. JPMorgan has projected potential upside targets as high as $230 if tensions escalate. The Volatility Index (VIX) is around 19, suggesting a calm market—often a precursor to strong directional moves. Smart money seems to be stepping in, accumulating positions during dips. ✅ This confluence makes oil a compelling candidate for macro upside, especially if global uncertainty deepens. 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note: If the setup confirms, I’ll update this idea with revised targets and entry levels. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments—they’ll be key triggers. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by Risk_Adj_Return
Crude Oil - Two Scenarios and about Brain PowerPrice retests the L-MLH. VI. - Price breaks upward, target is the centerline VII. - Price reverses again, then the target is the 1/4 line, with a subsequent extended target at the red centerline, and possibly even lower at the white dashed warning line. On a personal note: I was once again told that the price didn’t do what I had projected. ...yeah, really, that’s how it is §8-) After over 30 years in the markets and hundreds of coaching sessions, I’m still amazed that people think you can predict price movements as if with a magic crystal ball. The fact that this belief still persists (even though they don’t understand even the absolute basics of trading) deeply concerns me at the core of my trading soul. Because this growing irrationality clearly indicates that far too little is being done in terms of education – or humanity might simply go extinct in the next 100 years due to rapidly declining intelligence! ...maybe I should just create a chart and apply a few median lines/forks? Happy trading to all of you and I pray for those with lesser brain power.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
Oil Market on Edge Any disruption to Iranian oil supply could prompt OPEC to boost output quickly, says ING's Warren Patterson. But there's a limit to how much the cartel can buffer the market—especially if tensions escalate in the Persian Gulf, where most of OPEC's 5M bbl/day spare capacity sits. 🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is critical—any supply shock here could trigger a global response to secure energy flows. 📈 Crude has spiked after the surprise attack, testing key resistance at $76.90–$80.77 (200-week MA). A break above? Eyes shift to $95. Support? Watch $68.58—200-day MA. Volatility is back. Keep your eyes on the charts and the geopolitics. 🌍📊 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by The_STA
Chasing Oil Spikes? How Geopolitics Can Wreck SetupsOil prices surged over 12% in Asia on Middle East headlines, sparking a surge of volatility across safe-haven currencies and stock market futures during thin trade. It felt like a good time to provide food for thought to newer traders looking to chase these moves, highlight the mockery geopolitics can make of technical analysis with recent examples, and provide a filter for when the waters may be safer to reenter. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
WTI(20250613)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The monthly rate of the core PPI in the United States in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders once again fully priced in the Fed's two interest rate cuts this year. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 66.96 Support and resistance levels: 69.10 68.30 67.78 66.13 65.61 64.81 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 67.78, consider buying in, and the first target price is 68.30 If the price breaks through 66.96, consider selling in, and the first target price is 66.13
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Oil Price Approaches April HighThe price of oil may further retrace the decline from the April high ($71.16) as it continues to carve a series of higher highs and lows, and a move above 70 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in crude like the price action from earlier this year. In turn, a break/close above the $70.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $71.90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push the price of oil toward the February high ($73.84), with the next area of interest coming in around $76.00 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to $77.20 (50% Fibonacci retracement). At the same time, lack of momentum to test the April high ($71.16) may keep the RSI out of overbought territory but need a move below the $64.20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to bring the monthly low ($61.06) on the radar. --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
Crude Oil Breaks out of Channel More Upside Ahead?Hey traders so in continuation of the last post which was Can Crude Oil Close above $68? The answer is YES that didn't take long. 😁 One rule to live by that I have learned as a trader is Always Expect the Unexpected in Trading! So I bored out of my mind watching paint dry and then all of sudden Boom out of nowhere news that changes everything can happen in the blink of eye in these markets! So what Happened Opec? Iraq? Inventory Reports? Well truthfully it great to read to the news but I prefer to read the charts instead. The charts are already showing you that demand has increased so regardless of if you caught the news yesterday or not the charts have already told the story. Ok so now what it has closed above $68 which a strong bullish candle on 06/11 so did we miss the move? Not at all especially if this is the beginning of new trend so best way to trade the break out of a channel is watch for it to retest the breakout zone. So the breakout zone on the charts was $65 but now at $68 so if we can get a retest of $65-66 I believe it would be a great place to buy back in this market. Like I always say don't chase the market let it come to you. The party has already started but that doesn't mean you missed the party. We might get a second invitation at $65 or $66 so if trading this market place a buy order around there and stop loss somewhere below support and half way in the channel around $62-63 below to give the market room to breathe. What if we don't get a retest? Well thats how it is sometimes I would rather wait for the market to pullback then enter at the highest price of the move. I have missed moves sometimes because of this disicpline but sooner or later eventually the profit taking will bring it back down. Patience is key imo unless you don't mind buying at the high. Also Seasonally Oil Prices normally get increased demand due to the summer driving season. I will say sometimes there are fake channel breakouts to watch out for but this one looks bullish imo. Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TradeTheIndex
1
Crude Oil Going Higher - TA and fundamentals aligneThe 0-5 count is not over yet. Sudo 4 and 5 are still lurking. It's good to see how the Medianline-Set cought the Highs of the swings. Likewise we can see the subborn rejection at the Center-Line at P3. I will not trade CL to the short side, until it's clear that P4 is engraved in this Chart. Until then, I maybe shoot for some intraday or dayli trades in Crude. Economy Facts that support a rise, up to P4: Crude oil refineries typically switch to producing more gasoline (fuel for cars) in the spring, particularly around March to April in the United States and other northern hemisphere countries. Seasonal demand: Warmer months mean more driving and vacation travel, increasing gasoline demand. Regulatory change: Refineries begin producing summer-grade gasoline, which has lower volatility and is required by environmental regulations (especially in the U.S. under EPA rules). The switch to summer-grade gasoline must be completed by June 1st for retail and May 1st for terminals and pipelines in the U.S. In Summary: - Switch begins: March–April - Completed by: May (terminals), June (retail) - This seasonal shift is often called the "refinery maintenance season" or "spring blend switch."
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
4