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QM1! trade ideas

2025-01-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Bearish but only slightly and probably better after a lower high above 74. Bears broke the bull trend line and made new lows. 75 got 2 big rejections and we either continue down or we do a lower high below 75.29. Selling below 73.5 has not been profitable for a week, so don’t try be the first. On the daily chart it’s still just a minor two-legged correction, so it’s not the best short to take. Bears probably want better confirmation. Their first target below 73 is 72 and then likely the daily 20ema around 71.5. comment: We have touched the bear trend line and my bullish targets are met. The daily bar closed on it’s low and is decent enough for bears to get potential follow-through into the end of the week. I would want either very strong confirmation for shorts below 73 or a lower high below 75 before I short this. No interest in longs. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 75.5 bull case: Bulls are still in control and making higher highs and higher lows. They want a daily close above 75 to retest the October high 77.38. They see a two-legged correction on the daily chart and that is a buy signal in a bull trend. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears producing amazing bear bars above 74.5 but the follow through is terrible. They need lower lows below 72.7 to trap late bulls. The volume increase on the selling is good for them but until the trading range 72.7 - 75.3 is broken, bulls remain in control or market is at least neutral inside that range. I do think the overall structure on the daily/weekly time frames is in favor of the bears and once they get below 72.7, it’s a sell signal if you can hold a swing short with a wide stop. Next target is 72 and then 71.5ish (daily 20ema). Invalidation is above 75.3. short term: Neutral inside range and bearish below 72.7 or above 75 for a swing short. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 75 again was decent for 200 ticks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil Price Pulls Back to Keep RSI Below 70The price of oil pulls back from a fresh weekly high ($75.29) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70, and the oscillator may show the bullish momentum abating should it continue to move away from overbought territory. Crude Oil Price Outlook The recent rally in the price of oil seems to be stalling ahead of the October high ($77.38) as it no longer carves a series of higher highs and lows, and lack of momentum to hold above the $73.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push crude back towards $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). A break/close below $69.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) opens up the December low ($66.56), with the next area of interest coming in around $66.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). At the same time, the recent weakness in the price of oil may turn out to be temporary should crude defend the monthly low ($71.79) but need a break/close above $76.80 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to bring the October high ($77.38) on the radar. --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
Crude Oil - Is it time that the Black Gold will finally deliverHi guys, we are taking a look again at the Crude Oil , so far we have had a good revival of the price, hence it was trading side ways for the part of Novemeber - December 2024. Currently we can see after the recent price action we have formulated a beautiful ascending pattern which I intend to follow up on. Entry: 73.30 Target :75.00 Stop: 72.30 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DG55Capital
3
Closing CL Long idea early under the down trend line. The CL daily time frame has an up Fibonacci with an extension price point 78.92 about +451 ticks above the market. However the market is near the daily down trend line which could push the market back down. The last three times the market was pushed bearish, the market closed with a long wick towards the north. It will be a good idea to close the current long idea and wait for the market to break and close above the down trend line or to pull back giving a lower price before looking for a new long idea. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the buy zone. STOP: 64.60 LIMIT: 78.92
NYMEX:CL1!
by JoshuaMartinez
4
Crude Opportunity Part 2In this second part, the Crude Futures Daily chart is used. In this chart, there are marked points where the SuperTrend Buy signal is triggered and is coincided by a green Rate of VolDiv (RoVD, bottom panel). There is one on 8 October but there was no comcomitant indication and clearly it "failed". The others that fulfilled the condition are marked with a yellow time line. So clearly, the recent breakout is projected to have something similar in terms of a bullish rally. This is in line with the weekly outlook. Together with technical indicators like the RoVD, as well as the MACD where there is a clear breakout support, Crude appears to have much upside potential. However, there is no rush as it just met the trendline resistance and is expected to pull back a bit to retest and breakout again for the longer term. Overall, this looks not like a spike out of fear, but one spurred by inflation. This is in the MUST WATCH list for sure and an accumulation plan should be in place. A projected path is drawn as a guide and the target for Crude is 100-105.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Bullish on Crude Oil: Targeting Higher Prices Next Week - Key Insights: Crude oil is showing bullish momentum with strong market sentiment favoring long positions. Key support levels are around $73 and $72, while resistance levels are at $74.26 and $75.53. Recent trends indicate that the energy sector is outperforming others, driven by rising oil prices and investment optimism. - Price Targets: - Next week targets: T1 = $75.53, T2 = $78.46 - Stop levels: S1 = $71.50, S2 = $70.00 - Recent Performance: The price of crude oil has recently been hovering around $73.68, with upward momentum evident in tight consolidation patterns. The energy sector as a whole has increased by 3.4% to 5.4%, outperforming other industries. - Expert Analysis: Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the crude oil market, with a focus on price levels that suggest potential support at $72 and $71.50. The prevailing sentiment encourages long positions as the market positions itself for possible price increases. - News Impact: Geopolitical tensions involving oil supply, particularly from Russia and Ukraine, are intensifying concerns over supply disruptions. Furthermore, potential tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico could disrupt market stability and increase price volatility. The upcoming developments in energy policy will further shape the market dynamics in 2025.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Crude Opportunity Part 1Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on. Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next. For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick. In essence, the current weekly Crude Oil Futures CL1! show a similar set up ready for a spike and rally for Crude Oil. No fundamental reason (yet) but the technicals are projecting a billish scenario based on the technical set up. Part 2 will look more in-depth and zoom into the recent time frame... Stay tuned if you are keen...
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Can the HOUSE Capitalize LONG this week on Crude OIL...?NYMEX:MCL1! "In order to be successful in life you have to learn how to do something so well that the dead, the living, or the unborn could not to do any better." -Dr. MLK Jr. Here on the 4Hr TF market opened up and we are currently inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone ($73.43). Now this is my "Confluence Profile 500K" Playbook System to go LONG; Pillar 1) HTF EOF 'Market Direction' Who has the stronger more dominant hand? Now everyone's perception is different and that is totally fine. In my personal opinion we are still Pro Trend Bearish, however currently buyers have the slight EDGE. Now Im going to wait see how price reacts with the 4HR Sub. ($73.75) and wait to see if we can get a LTF Order Flow Footprint confirmation to enter LONG and Target the HIGHS.... Pillar 2) HTF Mitigation leads to LTF Order Flow Entry Confirmation. Let's be more patient and wait for more Data to be printed and then we'll create a better narrative to enter. I'll keep close update as PA develops. Til then before I head off, family I have to say; NOTHING and I repeat NOTHING in the market is set in stone. We play probability & adaptability to market conditions. Let's be skilled. Let's be patient. Let's be focused. Developing a stronger system that performs exceedingly well over time. Continued Success to you all... Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Bullish until bears come around. Big bull surprise to start 2025 with strong follow through above 72. Market has still a bit room to the bear trend line, that started in 2024-04, around 75. I can’t see this breaking above 77.38 and I have my doubts about a break of the trend line, so longs are no option for me here. I want to see selling pressure next week and wait for decent second signal before shorting this. comment: Big bull surprise early in 2025. I did not expect the market to just melt through 3 months of lower highs. We now have the big bear trend line right above us around 75 and it’s reasonable to expect market to get there before we could see bigger profit taking. Any short would need a stop 77.4 but I still think the odds are very good for the bears that we won’t make a higher high. Volume is still garbage so once we have decent selling pressure, I will take that swing short. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls want 75 and a retest of the bear trend line. Easy as that. They could overshoot it some but market has respected it two times before so I expect the trend line to hold. Volume is atrocious so it’s possible that the market just melts lower over the next 1-2 weeks after the retest. It would be very strong by the bulls if they keep the market above 70 now. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears have nothing for now but since we have made lower highs since 2023-09, they expect this to be one as well and the closer they can short to 77 the better. It’s too early to short and bears need to build much bigger selling pressure. We will probably have to go sideways first before this can come down again. Invalidation is above 77.4. short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Possible strong trend change in oilOil is at a critical chart crossroads with the Light Crude Oil contract flirting with an upward break of the strong long-term downtrend line “K” that has been passing through the $73 area in the last two sessions. On Friday morning when the article was written, the contract was trading at $72.90. A possible now confirmed upward break of this line will make it difficult for the contract’s sellers as it will have the power to open the way to $76. Above that, the price of $80 per barrel will “flash”. On the other hand, however, the apparent inability of oil to pass above $73 and the “K” will mark a third consecutive exhaustion peak, pushing the contract back below $69. It is of course best not to attempt to push oil prices above $76 because it will begin to "undo" the positive scenario of further weakening inflation.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by manthos
The Scorebook: 2024 Commodities PerformanceQuestion: What was the best performing commodity in 2024? For many of us, the first coming to mind would be Gold. Indeed, gold had a spectacular year driven by geopolitical uncertainty and the central bank reserve buildup. Spot gold hit an all-time-high of $2,788.54 per ounce on October 30, 2024. However, Gold retreated nearly $200 since due to the diminishing rate-cut prospects. It ends the year at 2606.72, up 28%. Gold has not won the 2024 commodity championship. • The performance of Precious Metal commodities was mixed. Silver had an annual return of 24.8%, but Platinum was down 4.4%. • Base Metals were weak overall, with Aluminum gaining 9.6% and Copper up just 3.8%. Crude Oil was in the spotlight all year long. The ongoing war in the Middle East, a major oil producing region, should have pushed oil prices sky high. On the contrary, WTI spot price closed at $72 per barrel at year end, practically flat for the year. • The fighting sides of the conflict, Israel, Hamas, Lebanon, Syria, and the Houthis, was not oil producing nations. OPEC+ countries continue to supply the global market without interruption. NYMEX WTI futures price (CL) was up just 5.1% in 2024. • Other Crude and Refined commodities were worse. Weaker demand pushed RBOB Gasoline down 2.0%, while heating oil lost 6.8%. On the bright side, the natural gas product suite was a totally different ball game. Unprecedented weather events result in significant supply and demand shocks, and pump huge volatility in the Nat Gas market. NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures hit a 52-week high of $4.20 on December 30th, after a leading weather forecaster came out predicting record-breaking winter storms in the heavily populated Great Plains and Mid-South regions. • As the storms are still developing, Henry Hub ended the year at $4.01, up 41.2%. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe adapts to clean energy more rapidly than the U.S. It is estimated that up to 44% of the electricity in the EU is produced by renewable energy. This heavy reliance could create huge problems if the weather does not cooperate. When Germany ran into days with no wind and a clouded sky, its electricity supply dropped by half. This huge supply gap prompted energy companies to turn on gas-fueled backup plants, pushing Nat Gas prices to a record high. • Dutch Nat Gas contract TTF was up 62.3% in 2024. For Agricultural commodities, Grains and Oilseeds were losing ground. • Corn was up 3.1%, while Soybean and Wheat down 22.3% and 11.8%, respectively. The Meat Department fares much better. Consistent with our grocery shopping experience with ever pricier red meat, Live Cattle went up 23.7%, while Lean Hog gained 12.9% in 2024. Overall, Natural Gas was the reigning King of Commodity in 2024, with Henry Hub up 42% and the Dutch TTF gaining 62%. But wait, if Eggs are tradable, you could book even higher profits. According to the USDA price bulletin, Grade A Large Eggs are now selling at $4.90 a dozen on average nationwide, up 359% from $1.06 a year ago! It’s a pity that CME Egg futures had been delisted since 1981, depriving us a huge trading opportunity. Do you know that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was originally named Chicago Egg and Butter Board in 1919? If you have access to China’s futures markets, you could still trade Egg Futures from Dalian Commodity Exchange. The JD contract traded 248,533 contracts last Friday. Happy Trading. Disclaimer: The above discussion is my personal view, and not a trading advice.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
4
Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47!🚀 Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47! 🚀 📊 Trade Setup: Entry Price: $73.12 Take Profit 1: $73.99 Take Profit 2: $76.20 Take Profit 3: $78.47 Stop Loss: $71.21 (below key support zone) 📈 Analysis: After months of trading in a range, WTI Crude Oil has broken above the upper boundary of the channel , signaling a bullish breakout. This breakout is supported by: 1️⃣ China's Economic Optimism: Growth pledges and potential stimulus are boosting demand expectations. 2️⃣ Technical Momentum: Key resistance at $71.50 and $74 has been breached, opening the path toward higher targets. 3️⃣ Tight Weekly Chart Range: A big move was anticipated, and the bulls delivered! 🎯 Targets: With momentum on our side, we’re targeting: $73.99: Quick resistance retest. $76.20: Alignment with prior highs. $78.47: Major resistance and breakout zone. 🔹 Risk Management: Stop loss at $71.21, well below the key support zone, ensures controlled risk in case of reversal. ⚡ Are you riding the breakout, or watching from the sidelines? Let me know your thoughts below! ⚡
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ValchevFinance
Confluence Profile 500K (Order Flow Footprint + PA) 2.5RNYMEX:CL1! "If you can't fly then run, if you can't run then walk. If you can't walk, then crawl. But whatever you do you have to keep moving forward." -Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Family I hope everyone is in good spirits as we kick off this new year of 2025!!!! Here in this video I have went into gr8 detail on this trade that I took SHORT todays during NY Session on Crude OIL and I broke down the Order Flow Footprint along with PA on why I decided to enter the trade and capitalize on 2.5R. My original target was 5R however volume died out and I decided to close and walk with profit. This year I'm going to consistently Over N over N over N over N over again study the 10pt Stop entry here on Crude Oil. On overage Crude Oil will run for +120pts during NY Session. All we need is half of that to eat. (60pts) this is my sweet spot. I'm determined to master it. Added along with better tape reading of the Order Flow Footprint. Let's stay active! Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
Oil Price Stages Five-Day Rally for First Time Since OctoberThe price of oil trades near the weekly high ($73.73) as it stages a five-day rally for the first time since October. Crude Oil Price Outlook Keep in mind, the price of oil cleared the November high ($72.39) as it carved a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above the $73.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone opening up $76.80 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Next area of interest comes in around the October high ($77.38) and a further advance in the price of oil may push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into overbought territory for the first time since April 2024. However, the RSI may hold below 70 as crude struggles to extend the bullish price series, and lack of momentum to break/close above the $73.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push the price of oil back towards $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
'Confluence Profile 500K' (Order Flow Footprint + PA)"10pt STOP"NYMEX:CL1! "Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos Family in this video I went into a gr8 in depth breakdown of a 5-6R trade that took place today during NY session SHORT on Crude OIL. Paying very close attention to the order flow footprint all the while observing very closely how PA is setting up will help us to develop the mastery of the 'Confluence Profile 500K' (Order Flow Footprint + PA) "10pt STOP". Just think about this...... December of 2024 price moved on average of 120pts during NY session. (5am-2pm) PST. -We know we're not going to catch the whole 120pts so were going to focus our attention on cutting that point ratio in half and catch 50-60pts with a 10Pt STOP.... -Granting us 5-6R in our Favor!! Now this is the RISK we face, WE HAVE ONLY 10PTS of pre-determined RISK. So, the 'Confluence Profile 500K' will consist of the (Order Flow Footprint + PA) to give us the highest probability ratio of entering a position with only 10pts to RISK & this is our journey to Master the 10pt STOP w/ a 50-60pt Target!!! Let's go 2 work. Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 4th consecutive bull bar on the daily chart and it’s the biggest of the 4. We are close to a bear trend line from the triangle (depending on how you want to draw it) and I rather think this is the climactic end of the rally for now and we pull back more. I can be totally wrong and market breaks above the trend line to retest the August high above 76 but trend lines are support/resistance until broken. Neutral because I think it’s too high to buy and too early to short. The close above 73 was really strong though. comment: Bulls with a strong break above the November high and they closed above 73. We are now in a dead zone between 72.35 and 74 (or the area around the bear trend line). We could see a bigger pull-back down to 72 or 71 before we test the bear trend line. Longs in the dead zone are bad trades, no matter how you put it. I do think the breakout is strong enough to wait for pull-backs and go long then. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 74 bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side now but buying this close to the bear trend line is probably unwise. Many bulls will probably want to see a decent pull-back and form a better channel up. Any pull-back should stay above 70/71 though or more could see it as a bull trap like all other highs above 72 were for 3 months now. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears had to give up once market continued above 72.35. Can they hold short and scale in higher with a stop 78? Not really. They will never reach even 1x their risk, so we will probably have to wait and see where the interest in buying vanishes and market stalls. Bears want to start shorting as close to the bear trend line as possible and if we just use the July & October highs, we could go up to 75. Bears really don’t have much here. Best they can hope for is to stall the market below 75 and wait for more bulls to take profits. Invalidation is above 74. short term: Bullish. Buying near the 2h 20ema or most recent bull trend line is reasonable. Targets above are 74 and maybe 75. I will wait for a better pull-back to buy. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Long since 10 a.m. CET. Strong 1h bull bar closing at the high tick and immediate follow through. Market never looked back.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Oil (UCO) - Short Term Bull - Swing Trade AMEX:UCO NYMEX:CL1! Here's the details of my trade Long on Oil (CL1!) - Position in UCO.... Daily Chart: - Falling Wedge Pattern - Break of Resistance Line Dec 11th - Retest of Resistance Line 3x - Inverted Head and Shoulders Formation - Break above Inv H&S Neckline Fundamental Support: - TBH, for oil I rely 90% on the chart formations. Fundamental data for oil fluctuates nearly everyday, and can be difficult to pinpoint any reliable correlation between fundamental data and news to price movements - However, major news/fundamentals are considered...OPEC announcements, wars and possible supply disruptions, etc - For this trade, I'm solely looking at the chart and will mention in the comments if any fundamental data impacts the trade Economic Data & News - Much news about China's economic stimulus and whether it will drive demand is still in debate. Recent news shows China's GDP will be 4.9% for 2024 and similar growth is expected in 2025. However, there's still a need for more time and data to truly see the impacts - Trump's tariffs are in question as to what and if he will implement them and what impacts it will have on the US and other major countries. For this trade this is not relevant, but more information keeping on top of. Target: - Entry $69.50 CL1! - Inverted Head and Shoulders - Head $68.50 - Neckline $70.50 - Target 72.50 - Stop: A break back below $69.50 - Inv Head and Shoulders formation is 8 Days - Estimated time of breakout move is 2/3 formation time therefore ~5 days to target Risks: - Low trading volumes during the holiday period do not support the transition to bullishness for oil - Supply/Demand news that could have a negative impact on oil prices - Economic data coming from China that stimulus is not working and growth is continuing to slow - Failure to hold above the Inverted H&S neckline Overall: Oil is not my favorite asset to trade due to fluctuating news releases and the difficulty of interpreting the supply and demand. However, the breakout of both a falling wedge and inverted head and shoulders are both high win % patterns...74% and 89% respectively, that I have taken a small position in my portfolio because the opportunity is there and it challenges my trading and depth of knowledge in oil. My Position: 1 Call Option in UCO (2x Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil) $25 Strike, Current Price $27.55 Expiration Friday Jan 10th Average Price is $1.65 a contract Investment $165 Target $2.65-$4.65 (1-3:1 Profit Loss Ratio) Stop .80 Potential Loss -$85 Potential Gain $100-$300
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by jaytmarquardt
Crude Oil January Futures: Bullish Option Trade SetupBuilding upon my prior analysis, where I held a bearish outlook on Crude Oil January Futures , I now present a contrasting bullish perspective. While I had previously emphasized the confidentiality of the stop-loss level for short trades, this setup focuses on a call option strategy aligned with my expectations of upward momentum in the market. For this trade, I have chosen the 6000 strike call option . The optimal entry point for this position is below ₹234.20 , providing a favorable risk-reward ratio. As of this writing, the current market quote (best offer) stands at ₹186.00 , offering an attractive entry opportunity for bullish traders. My target for this position is set at ₹468.40 , which I anticipate achieving by the contract's expiry on 15th January 2025. Key Notes: This trade is based on my personal analysis and market perspective. It is important to emphasize that this is not a trade recommendation for the public. The stop-loss level remains confidential and forms an integral part of my risk management approach. Disclaimer: Trading in options and futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This analysis is solely my personal view and is shared for informational purposes. Perform your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by IndexAce