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QM1! trade ideas

Crude Oil Finds a Bottom! Crude prices struggled in 2023. Although major production cuts were implemented by OPEC member countries, the USA has ramped up production, and concerns about global growth have emerged. While economic growth and demand remain a headwind moving forward, the question is whether crude is trading at fair value or if it may be undervalued. Inventories and Seasonality: Recent crude inventories data from the EIA revealed a decrease of over -9.23 million barrels, compared to the expected draw of -2.15 million barrels. Demand is beginning to ramp up, and consumers tend to travel more as the winter season comes to an end. Middle East tensions are still elevated, adding another layer of uncertainty to the supply chain dynamics. Technical Analysis: Crude has tested the 67.50-70 range many times, and this area continues to be a major support. Recent price action displays a decisive break above the 50-day EMA. Prices are now attempting to test the 200-day EMA, a much more significant area of resistance. Breaking above this 200-day EMA, coupled with a Golden Cross, could be exactly what crude needs to find upside momentum and enter a bull market in 2024. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Crude oil could rally from $72Price action has been very choppy on the daily crude oil chart, but if we place a line chart over the top is shows prices are trying to break out of a small triangle / pennant. Whilst these are usually expected to be continuation pattern, they can also make decent reversal pattern. And this case, we've see prices hold above $70 on a closing basis, and the lower candle wicks made a series of higher lows. Momentum is now turning higher. Bulls could seek dips down to $72 (yesterday's low) or a break of its high, with an upside target around $78, near the 200-day MA and 100-day EMA.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
#202405 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil Here my commentary from last week: If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you should not start now because the odds of a breakout rise daily. The bulls got their big breakout and we made 465 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Clear breakout of the triangle and they want a measured move up to 84. First more reachable target is the 50% pullback from the big bear trend which started 2023-10 and that is around 79 and where i expect more sideways trading. If bulls can keep this above the daily 20ema, i expect they will go for the measured move target of the triangle which we broke out of, to around 84. Bear case: They see this as a leg inside a trading range 68 - 80 and there are 2 potential bull channels and we are at the top of both. Bears want a strong reversal and trading back to the tight bull channel bottom at around 76. They also see 3 clear pushes up inside that channel and have reasonable arguments to short up here and make bulls want to take profits. outlook last week: “neutral (means sideways)” → bad outlook, since we got a big bull breakout short term: sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80. medium-long term: odds for higher prices (up until maybe 90) raised significantly but i want to see market trading above 80 first. above 80 i turn full bull for 90 or higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Crude oil back about $96 a barrel With the slowing of oil production and conflict at the Nile, I think that oil prices are going to increase, if the fed decides to cut or leave interest rates unchanged this may weaken the USD and strengthen other currencies creating more demand for oil and if inventory continues to lessen you will see a further surge in oil prices. otherwise, if the fed raises interest rates next week and productions issues come to resolve oil prices will begin to drop and I will update this post with a bearish Analysis.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by jewlstagara
WTI Jumps to $78, Key Fibo Level - The Next Big Risk?Mega-cap tech’s climb to jumpstart 2024 fooled many strategists who called for value, cyclical, and small-cap niches to outperform. The same old playbook has been in full swing, but could that be about to change? Consider that banks, not chips, ended this week at fresh multi-year highs following a late-week pullback among the big semiconductor names. But there’s more action out there that few are paying attention to. Have you seen WTI crude oil recently? Tensions in the Red Sea have been ongoing for many weeks, but it has just been over the last few sessions that WTI has taken flight. The prompt month now trades near $78. Gasoline futures, meanwhile, rose above $2.30, implying a national retail pump price average near $3.25 over the coming weeks. Consumers might not like that, and it would come immediately after a sanguine set of University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for January. We will get an updated read on that Friday next week. I also point out in today’s featured chart that US light sweet crude oil is now at a pivotal Fibonacci retracement level on the chart. Watch how the bulls and bears battle it out as the calendar flips to February. If we rally through $78, and hold it on pullbacks, a rotation in the market could very well take place, right as mega-cap tech reports Q4 results.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by mikezaccardi
Huge Win On Crude OilTrendCloud gave us a huge win on the Micro Crude Oil this week. 4 hour trend is up 1 hour trend is up Momentum was also up on both timeframes creating the perfect storm. TrendCloud Signals on the 5 minute chart were sent directly to our phones and alerted us to the trade. Multiple winners on Crude Oil all through the week. If you want the exact trade plan that we use in the live trading room then just click the link in my profile. Chris Juliano TrendCloud Trading
NYMEX:MCLH2024Long
by thechrisjuliano
a daily price action after hour update - wti crude oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Here is a quote from my substack on Monday about oil: "Most interesting market today. I do believe its a breakout of the bear channel, beginning 2023-09, if bulls can generate follow through tomorrow/Wednesday. The trend line on higher time frames is more of an area than a narrow line with exact prices. But we are there and had a strong bull day. This could be leg 2 of a 3 legged move and a measured move target could bring us to around 80 again. That would certainly make a whole lot of bears cover and fuel the rally probably further. I’d be very cautious with shorts here and look for strength. short term: sideways to up" Being prepared pays. Daily close above 75 and market is accelerating. 80 is my next target but i don’t think we get there without a pullback first. PB could be deep to the lower bull wedge around 75.5 but if we get there, the odds that it holds are excellent. short term: very short term, sideways to down but ultimately bullish for target 80. from there i wait for market to show new impulse. medium-long term: up trade of the day: that 1h 20ema held since Wednesday before us open. look for longs.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Gold Silver Dxy Tesla Oil1.24.24 The price action of the dxy is making it tough to trade the metals. I explain this with some detail in the video. Even though that is true you'll see that there's more volatility with a silver because it's $5,000 a point and it's pattern behavior can you yell the profitable scalp. This is not true for the gold where you could make some money but it's much more difficult to trade. I think most people who trade these markets would tell you that silver is more difficult to trade for various reasons. Tesla is trading in a range box with the market trading with lower highs to its current support area.... this is a disappointing time to be in a market like this when you bought it at such a good price not too long ago.... and the market actually made good reversal patterns of both directions but now it's trading to a range box that is contracted comparing its current pattern after it's had very good moves lower and higher and now it's settling into a contracted range.... and arrange is a range as long as it's ranging::: who knows how long it's going to do this... and whether it will break higher or lower? There is not enough volatility in oil for me to trade the market.... but I'm sure this will change and I'll know what it looks like when it happens... and so I will wait. I will try to post a video when I see an opportunity.... as a buyer or a seller.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
OIL FUTURES Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 012224Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 74/61.80% Chart time frame : B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NYMEX:CL1!
by fibonacci6180
Light Crde Oil ( CL1!, US Oil ).... BULLISHAs I mentioned in the Weekly Outlook video, I expected the fair value gap + the bullish breaker block to hold price, and provide support for a potential rally. It chopped since Tuesday, but we've seen the bulls come in and slowly start to move price higher. I expect that price will continue that move today. I am looking for price to pullback a bit, after taking the yesterday's high. I should pullback halfway into Thur's candle, and push higher towards the highlighted draw on LQ (red line). If it doesn't happen today, then I look towards the beginning of next week for it to play out. May profits be upon you.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by RT_Money