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QM1! trade ideas

WTI Crude oil front expiration - Last updateOverview: Awaiting the FOMC minutes and API crude oil stocks Strategy: Our current position's Delta: +0.10 (rebalanced at $77.18 from -0.73). Follow the market. Technical signals: Stochastic crossed the signal but still in negative territory, RSI in neutral area. Trends analysis: primary(purple): corrective structure wave A intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B minor(yellow): corrective structure wave A Bullish targets: first@ $78.80/$79.00 second@ $79.70/$80.00 Mandatory rebalance level /Stop loss: as we are neutral is not set Bearish targets: first@ $76.80 second@ $75.80/$75.60
NYMEX:CL1!
by DeltaZeroFinance
WTI Crude oil first expirationOverview: Bullish pressure starting in the overnight session, push higher the close of waveA (minor trend) at important resistance level. First target to $78.50 has been reached. Strategy: We hold negative delta since $77.60 Our current position's Delta: -0.50 negative, (increased from -0.23)looking for the first bearish target Technical signals: Stochastic and RSI in overbought Trends analysis: primary(purple): corrective structure wave A intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A minor(yellow): corrective structure wave A closed Bullish targets: first@ $79.80/$80.00 second@ $80.50 Mandatory rebalance level /Stop loss: on breakout of $78.70 Bearish targets: first@ $76.80 second@ $75.8
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by DeltaZeroFinance
Oil is going higher Silver is not entirely clear11.20.23 For the last week and so far for this week... oil is the market you want to be following and trading. Silver was tradable but it's a little difficult to take a trade even though it's a opening price short trade today. Every market has easy trades and hard trades... which means you have to work harder for the markets that aren't so easy on any given day. Personally, I try to wait for the easier trades... and I try to acknowledge when I'm working too hard on the More difficult trades.... and just in case... I keep the stuff small. Oil is more like a significant correction lower and now it's time for a nice big swing higher because of the way it reversed on Friday. If you miss all of the breakouts lower on oil you will make up a lot of that as a buyer on Friday. One of the reasons why I like range boxes is that a range box that has a very significant range.... and you know the buyers are at the bottom of the range and sellers are at the top.... it's much simpler to trade the ranges a lot of times. If you can, you want to learn how to be a swing trader so that you can stay in a good market longer and let the market run for you.... than always trying to Scalp. I found it very hard to do both... and it took me a long time to realize it had something to do with my personality and the way it affected my trading. I believe every trade should be analyzed before and after the trade and sometime during the analysis I always ask "What did I do wrong... and how can I fix it"?
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
WTI Crude Oil front expiration: Navigating Correction and TargetThe WTI crude oil market experienced a robust response, essentially reversing the downward trend observed on Thursday's session. Currently, the market is exhibiting a corrective structure, and we are monitoring whether it follows a pattern of 3 waves (ABC) or 5 waves (ABCDE). As of our current position, the delta stands at -0.03, indicating a neutral stance. The bullish outlook has seen success with the attainment of the target at $76.00 indicated in the previous report, if the upward pressure would persist, the next targets are located on $77.50 as first and at $78.50 as second. It's essential to note that, as our position is currently neutral, our trading system doesn't set any rebalancing level or stop loss. On the bearish side, the initial target is set at $75.00, followed by the second target at $73.90. In simpler terms, the market initially faced a downturn but has since shown signs of correction. Our position is currently delta neutral, with specific target levels for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
NYMEX:CL1!
by DeltaZeroFinance
Inflation Wins, We LoseThere are two kinds of inflation, the normal one and the dangerous one. Printing money creates inflation. The kind however which is not dangerous to the foundation of the economy. With money printing, currency loses value and prices react accordingly. Nobody gets wealthy from money printing, and in a sense, "nobody" gets poor. By nobody I mean the economy as an average doesn't really get hurt. Inflation however widens the gap between poor and wealthy. Poor get poorer while rich get richer... Inflation analysis can be very simple. If one believes in simple support/resistance levels from consolidation patterns, then the following picture can be drawn for the standard inflation chart. For further validation, we can try analyzing commodities like oil. In the main chart, crude oil value is divided by the "total value of money in circulation". The value of money is the yield percentage. A massive consolidation pattern formed in 1986-2002, on which we are now supported. I believe that price cannot drop much lower than the point we are in. Dips can be expected, but in macro scale the chart is bullish. From the chart above, we conclude that oil prices (inflation) will grow compared to yields themselves. Each increase in yields (inflation fighting) will lead to higher oil prices (higher inflation). Charts like these prove the Catch-22 phenomenon we are in. This is the bad kind of inflation. This inflation is un-fixable. There is a plethora of charts that prove what I say, that inflation is unfixable. One of these charts is GOLD*PPIACO. @SPY_Master used the GOLD*DBC chart as a measure of inflation. Gold*PPIACO can be considered as another very-long-term inflation measure. Commodity production cost is bull-flagging against money supply itself. So okay, we all expect more inflation. And surely, equity prices have priced this in, right? Wrong. Equities have priced-in that the FED is controlling inflation. Investors expect both inflation and the FED to calm soon. So, equities have priced-in something that will never come. An investment can suffer when the investor judges the situation wrong. An investor who has understood the situation, "cannot" go bankrupt. Equity prices show that markets ignore the FED. In the chart above, DJI is divided by the yield curve as an attempt to measure the ability of equities to grow in a progressively tighter economy (falling yield-curve, negative yield curve). Even with all that money destruction and yield increases, equities are making all-time highs. The markets are very stubborn. The yield curve may describe the "ease" the market shows for equities. In normal times, the yield curve is positive, long-term yields are higher than short-term ones. This encourages short-term borrowing and stimulates the economy. As the yield curve steadily lowers, short-term money borrowing is less and less interesting for investors. (In the Spaaace!!! idea linked below, you can find more information about the DJI/yield-curve chart) High inflation and stubborn markets by themselves don't render equities as worthless. After all, equities survived in the stagflation period of 1970s. While the stagflation outcome can play out, there are things that may happen before it. There are some charts which are very concerning for equities... We tend to talk about the crypto bubble, and ignore the equity one. Equities have been consistently growing for the last 15 years. But thanks to what? Are companies in a "better shape" than they were in 2010? Sure technology has evolved, but from dependable devices we are now filled with unstable gadgets. Consumer devices as well as corporate ones, are more vulnerable than ever before. Security gaps are now appearing from big-tech companies to banks. Sure, issues like these were commonly occurring throughout history. But let's consider, is the immense equity growth representative of the dependence we can have on companies and their products/services? Are equities growing because of actual innovation, or from the easy way of derivatives? This chart shows the diminishing nature of derivatives. They are exponentially losing value, but their effect is much bigger than their cost. A purchase of cheap derivatives can bubble-up anything you can hope for. Where does this chart lead us? This chart attempts to calculate the effect of derivatives in QQQ price. Before 2020, QQQ consisted of a "stable" amount of derivatives. Price moved in the channel. In 2021 a bull-flag formed and launched the chart in incredible new highs (where we are now). It is one way to visualize the immense effect of derivatives, especially in big-tech stocks. (More about this chart in the "who would you trust with your money" idea linked below) Even if Bitcoin is "overpriced", it will be the winner if this golden bull-flag breaks out. Bitcoin seems to be beating many investments. Even if it may not be considered a commodity, it certainly behaves like one. Even if equities grow, each upwards move for equities, will lead to much higher prices for Bitcoin. Just like Bitcoin is bull-flagging against the most powerful of equity bubbles (QQQ Derivatives), commodities are bull-flagging against the most stable of equities (DJI) Not all equities are grim though... We may be witnessing a massive wealth transfer away from US corporations. In this idea, I attempt to analyze the massive shift of balance that we may be witnessing. While much harm has come to Europe from the war, almost everything is priced in. If the chart is correct, it means that every upwards move for US equities will push Germany further upwards. Germany has been enjoying a massive influx of money from the entire EU. After swallowing the entire European market, it is now forming a bull-flag against Europe and other countries. Germany as well as emerging markets prove a significant challenge for the US. These are bad news indeed for US equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
6
Crude Oil Found The Support?Crude oil is trading lower, currently showing blue wave C in late stages of a corrective wave B pattern. We can also see now five subwaves down within C from 88/89 zone, where final subwave (5) of C can be now coming to an end with a huge volume increase. We can actually already see a sharp bounce from the support that can be signal for a minimum three-wave recovery back to 80 area. If we get a five-wave impulsive recovery back above channel resistance line and 80.00 level, that's when we may call a bottom for crude.
NYMEX:CLF2024Long
by ew-forecast
Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA V2 (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes. What's on the chart: Converging parallel channels (light blue) aka diamond box pattern, framing price action into a pennant formation on higher timeframe. Descending parallel channel (white) emphasizing current downward trend since late September peak. Fibonnaci levels highlight key support/resistance zones. Short-medium term outlook: Sharp reversal (short-squeeze?) from over-selling after breaking out lower range of parallel channel (white). Bullish reversal = rally back above 50% Fib. Bearish continuation = further selling below previous low towards 78.6% Fib / lower range of parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone. Watch for commodity trading trend/sentiment in either direction - leading into upcoming OPEC+ decision re: 2024 supply cuts, TBC.
NYMEX:CL1!
by BlueHatInvestor
WTI Crude oil front expirationOverview: With the yesterday's sell off, the stochastic in oversold territory and in divergence as well as the RSI, we consider closed the corrective structure(ABC) on daily time frame. A technical rebound is likely, to bring the market in a trading range area between $74 and $80. Only a breakout of yesterday's low ($72.40) will change the daily's structure from a corrective ABC to a bearish impulsive 5 waves. Our strategy: Our current position' delta: +0.43 Bullish first target: $75.00 Bullish second target: $76.50 Mandatory rebalancing level / Stop loss: on breakout of $73.00 Bearish first target: $70.00/$69.80 Bearish second target: $67.00 See you all next update!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DeltaZeroFinance
Russell follow up Oil long11.17.23 This video is a follow-up on the Russell which hit a target and you would have made a thousand bucks or so. It was a high probability trade to go lower which is good if you are shorting... but it had a low reward... which translates into not the greatest of risk reward trades. Life is much easier for a trader.....If she can Pull out a couple of high reward trades. If you think you have a high probability trade regarding the direction the markets likely to move but your concern is that the market's going to run into buyers and you're a seller... you can make money but you have to work harder. Russell hit the target but if you hadn't taken profits you would have given it all back in a very short period of time. On the other hand yesterday would have been a great short trade in oil with a high probability that it would go lower and a reward that almost definitely was going to be above $2,000.... it is an entirely different experience to trade setups like the Russell then taking trades in oil. The probability is that oil will go higher because it is at support and that it will trade two to three points higher and maybe more to give you a very good reward.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
[MCX] Crude Oil Swing Buy BetNote - One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all. ======= I use shorthands for my trades. "Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.) "Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day. "Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems. ======= I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share. ======= Like - Always follow a stop loss. In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High". In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings. I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives. =======
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Amit_Ghosh
WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower. I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices. A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80. Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
Crude Oil Future Prediction - 17.11.2023 - Trading Marcos LevelsCrude Oil MCX Future - November Intraday Trend Analysis for 17.11.2023 Buy at 6233.6 with Target 1 - 6259.6 and Target 2 - 6404, ' Add additional position at 6189 Sell at 6144.4 with Target 1 - 5792.4 and Target 2 5648 Stoploss: Buy Position SL: 6190 Sale Position SL: 6240 This Crude Oil MCX Future analysis is for educational purposes and one should attempt a paper trade on the below mentioned levels for an Intraday Range - 378 Points on 17.11.2023
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by NumroTrader
WTI Crude oil front expirationOverview: with today's fall in price, having reached $73.80 support area, and with a divergence on RSI, we consider close the corrective structure ABC on the daily time frame. Strategy: Moderate bullish position's delta , Our current position's delta: +0.30 Bullish first target: $75.00/$75.30 Bullish second target: $76.00 Mandatory rebalancing level / Stop loss: on breakout of the daily's low Bearish first target: $73.00 Bearish second target: $72.20
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DeltaZeroFinance