#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Daily bars looking weak but it does not matter, it’s a small pullback bull trend and it’s going higher. Not a single bar went below the previous so we are max bullish. 72 is very likely get hit on Monday and the first bigger target is 73. There market decides if this bigger bear trend is still alive or we have found a credible bottom at 64.
Quote from last week:
comment: Selling the 4h ema on Tuesday was as perfect as it gets. Bulls bought the lows again and 65 held. Neutral around 68 because both sides have reasonable arguments.
But also this:
Given the max bearish sentiment that everyone and their dog is writing about on x, I favor the bulls to trap late bears much more than I expect continued selling but as long as bears are below the daily ema, they are in control of the market.
comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 64-74
bull case: 4h tf. Look at it. Every touch is bought. Until that stops, only look for longs. Bulls are only making higher lows and higher highs. Their next target is the obvious bear trend line around 73.5/73.7. Even if bears come around and print something below 70, bulls would most likely buy it for a retest of 71.5 or 72.
Invalidation is below 68.5.
bear case: Bears who sold below 67 were trapped and market just keeps going higher. Bears gave up completely on Thursday and Friday was most likely bulls taking profits and opex things why we stalled. Until bears print something below 69, they have no arguments as of now. Sure we are still inside the bear channel but the upper trend line is still almost 400 ticks away. Best they can probably get is sideways movement 70-72.
Invalidation is above 72.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral around 68. I have alerts and wait for one side to clearly take control again. Slightly favoring the bulls if they stay above 68 and get momentum going again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 68.65 and now we are at 71. Bad outlook. Bulls took over completely. I still think it was a surprise since market did not even retest anything below 67. Would give the outlook again.
short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull trend lines from the 4h tf.
