Start to make bearish moveUpdate 1.1 - Price start making move to Sellside Liquidity and already make a market structure shift after hitting m5 OB. Targetting TP1 to take profit. This is also CRT H4 setup
QM1! trade ideas
WTI is expected to make bearish move during Asian SessionPrice raid during US AM killzone yesterday with the support of Natural EIA data. Price is expected to do retracement after bullish movement and hopefully during this asian session we can see a temporary short movement.
Oil9.11.24 it turns out that this video only talks about oil. there were other important markets such as the dollar and the currencies and also some commentaries on other markets that I've been looking at when a routine basis with these videos.... but there were some special things that occurred on this particular Market and it gave me a chance to talk about my concept of the smart money that can do things with the price action that can really mess up your Trading because what is good for you in your mind really is a bad trade decision because you're not really thinking about how the smart money creates patterns that are great for them and bad for you. obviously I can't give you cause and effect.... I can only guess and since I'm giving you precise descriptions and how this can play out you'll see if it's working or not because I'm telling you much of it before the market has a chance to show you what I'm talking about. no matter how good this is I know that 90 something percent of the people watching will never do the work.... they never do the work and I know the outcome for them will be failure when it comes to Trading. most people cannot deal with failure and risk and other matter that makes trading so difficult. most people don't realize how difficult it is to make money Trading and they don't make the effort to do what successful people do... is to work hard and test everything that you think you need to know before your risk capital. in general the smartest most successful people in markets have no interest in telling you how to trade. trading Is Not a Love Fest. my experience after many years at this is that most of the people I paid money to in the first couple of decades of my trading experience we're generally very disappointing but at least they got paid they made money because I had to pay for their wisdom.... it's obviously not their trading based on my experience. this video turned into a comparison of a bear trap ...and a bear flag. I'm not really sure if I'm naming them accurately according to Convention. ... and it is well known that the relationship to Smart money and fast money is a well-known topic. the assumption is that the smart money does something that eludes the fast money.
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bears in full control and the 4h ema is king. Bulls are also making money buying new lows, so we have some two sided trading, despite the bear strength.
comment: 4h 20ema. Add that to your wti crude oil chart and trade it. Market is respecting it and there are amazing trades to be made. How long will it continue? No one knows but markets tend to do what they have been doing. Intertia. The bear channel is also looking good for now. Where could be the next bigger support for the bulls? 64.46 was my bigger target for the bears and they already reached it. The 2023-12 low is at 63.21 and the next support below would be 60. For now I think shorts are not favored near the lower bear trend line and I would only look for shorts near the 4h ema. Can you long this? You can but stop would probably be 64.7ish because 65 could easily get tested.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 63 - 71
bull case: Bulls are content with scalping long at new lows. They are quick to exit once bigger bears come around and that’s why the selling ist mostly done via quick spikes (roughly 1h in length). Since we are at the lows of the bear channel, r:r favors the bulls for 67 or 68.
Invalidation is below 64.7.
bear case: Bears are in obviously in control. The selling is orderly with pull backs and we are in a decent channel down. Also true is that bears take profits at new lows, hence the pullbacks to the 4h ema. 63 to 67 was an area where the market produced a lot of tails below the bars in December and January. I doubt bears can continue this strong through that price area.
Invalidation is above 68.8.
short term: Bullish for retest of the upper bear channel and 4h ema. SL is 64.7.
medium-long term: Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Once again, a short near the 4h ema.
Crude Oil Getting Mauled!Lookout below! Chart looks horrific. Comment below where your bottom target is! if demand continues to be weak and supply grows, crude oil might see prices in the 60s or potentially lower if there's a significant event or policy shift
could Oil be headed back to the COVID-era $30 range ?
Oil Prices Drop on Weak China Demand & Gulf StormOil prices continue to drop as weak demand in China persists, despite disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. Latest data shows consumer inflation in China rising slower than expected, with crude oil imports rebounding slightly from July but still weak on a seasonal basis.
In the Gulf, oil and gas producers are shutting down platforms and evacuating workers as they brace for the storm.
📊 Technical Outlook: The market is approaching key support levels:
• 38.2% retracement at $65.16 (2020-2022 move)
• $63.64 (2023 low)
• $61.74 (mid-2021 low)
While these levels might hold during the initial test, it’s unlikely they'll prompt a reversal. With the market trading below the 200-week moving average and breaking the 55-month moving average, there's potential for prices to dip below $50 in the longer term. A negative bias remains below $84.52, and if support levels break, we could see a structural downtrend.
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Bears wade into crude oil futures: CL1!An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
Crude Testing 50 Period on the 1 Hour CandleA lot of factors in play with geo politics, weather, economic slow down, and technicals. Any successful test and hold above the 50 period could yield a nice 5-10% move to the upside.
Crude Testing 50 Period on the 1 Hour CandleA lot of factors in play with geo politics, weather, economic slow down, and technicals. Any successful test and hold above the 50 period could yield a nice 5-10% move to the upside.
Oil swing outlook for the next couple months/yearsBullish on oil. Lets see how it plays out over the next couple of years.
CRUDE**CrudeOil:**
This week, the price is expected to fall to the zone between 68.51 and 67.77, which coincides with the value of a key level for the reversal of the trend.
Sellers Successfully Broke to the downside on Weekly TF...NYMEX:CL1!
"Our patterns make prints that show up on paper." -Trinidad Chris
Family as we get ready to start this trading week. Let's make sure we play very close attention to every detail in the market on every TF from the Weekly n Below. Our #1 focus is the Mastery of our System! We are in the business of Managment. Here in this video, I went into gr8 detail as to why I am more so SHORT biased on Crude OIL. However, LONGS are still on the table if the right High Probable Set Up presents itself!! This is going to be a BIG BIG Week for the HOUSE!!! Let's stay on POINT!!
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Very strong breakout below previous support around 70 and market is on it’s way to test the 2024 low 64.46. Oil has not traded below 63 for more than a year. Bulls are in pain but some pullback is expected next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Not much changed. On the weekly it looks more bearish than it is. Until one side get’s a daily close above or below previous lows/highs, market continues to contract and the breakout is near. Weekly ema is flat as can be. Either scalp to both sides or wait for the breakout. Bears want to get below 70 and bulls want 78 and higher. Odds favor the bulls around 72 to trade back up to at least 76.
comment: Bears did surprise me big time on Monday where they closed below the August low but the bigger surprise was the follow through on Tuesday where they closed below 70. That was the lowest close for 8 months and bears just sold it relentlessly on every small rip. We are now 4% away from the January low and given the strong selling on much higher volume, we will likely test below 65$ next week. All pullbacks last week were mostly sideways and every time market got near or touched the 4h 20ema, it sold off big time. Any pullback the bulls get, bears will probably continue and try to keep 70 resistance. Selling 67.67 is probably not a good idea so I what for Monday and if we can get near the 4h ema again and there I’d look for weakness.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 60-72
bull case: Bulls are really trying if you look at the 1h chart but every rip bigger than 100 ticks is sold heavily by huge bear bars. Right now at 67.67 I don’t think we are at a bigger support level where bulls want to fight this. Could happen on Monday but I think many more bulls wait for 65 to be hit before longing this. First objective for the bulls is to make the market go sideways and then get a 4h bar close above the ema. Anything above 71 would surprise me.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears broke strongly below very big previous support and trying to test the 2024 at 64.46. They are in total control of the market until bulls can close a bull bar above the 4h ema. So we have a clear target with 65 or even 64.46 and a clear invalidation level of the max bearishness with the 4h ema.
Invalidation is above 70.32
outlook last week:
short term : Bullish above 75, bearish below 73. Bulls want 77 and bears want 72 or lower.
→ Last Sunday we traded 73.55 and now we are at 67.67. Clear levels given, hope you took shorts below 73.
short term: Full bear mode but a pullback is expected. Good r:r shorts are to be found around 69-70. Above 70.32 we will see a more complex pullback and I’d be out of shorts and wait.
medium-long term: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 9-13th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 9 - 13th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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CRUDE OIL - BEARISH CONTINUATIONAfter drop raid last week. Crude oil are expecting to retrace during asian session to london killzone to form accummulation and manipulation. Hopefully a distribution will occur and bearish continuation is form
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet.
True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Front Month Premium - Bullish
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Scaled Water DragoonFirst things first!
THIS IS NOT A TRADING SIGNAL! The signal came 8/29/24 at 11:30 from an AI analyst tool that I created to be my automated analysis assistant.
It sends me alerts after very specific market ingredients have simmered in a very specific order.
This post is just to share my chart art with the world’s biggest hub of retail traders!
Without getting into the minute details of my eve, I will tell you an overview of what exactly has to happen before I get one of these alerts as they are rare market occurrences.
1. Lopsided market participation.
2. Institutional pricing level reached.
3. Massive liquidity present.
4 Abnormal Institutional Activty Detected.
5. Price Action Discrepancy,
6. Demand / Supply reached.
I have been working on this system for over a year and a half, August was the first month I had my analyst deployed on the market.
This was the best play I think I’ve seen anyone AI or human ever call out. I’m excited for the future of testing and watching what happens! I will continue to monitor this trade to see just how far it actually runs, currently sitting at 1:14 RR from the time of the AI trading alert to today.
US OIL UP?I'm just imagining various scenarios regarding US crude. Please don't take me seriously.
If you can see the two bright yellow horizontal lines, they represent a sloppy double top on the D chart. I've based the bottom on today's low, which also correlates to the Anchored VWAP low (wavey, nearly parallel fine red lines) that I set months ago, stupidly thinking that oil would not descend to that depressingly hideous low in this fearful "possibility of war strife world." Wrong again!
OK, I've taken the low yellow line to the imagined double-top. What's the difference? Something like 16 points or so? Then, I extrapolated, based on the actual chart data, to the projected month that it could reach soon, which is approximately March of next year. The top of the pink vertical line is where I'm guessing oil will get in 6 months. It could hit $100.
Please keep in mind that this is a thought experiment, nothing more! I would place the odds being 50/50. Yet, the timing makes sense since it's the weekend now, and no one can take more pain from these freaked-out indices! BTW, my charts of the NYSE Indices were screaming PANIC all week long, on daily and weekly chats, based on the indicators I use.
Many will rethink the world political strife regarding Israel, Ukraine, Libya, and all the other concerns that involve oil.
My study is only a wild guess; I am not a professionally trained anyone. Do your research, and I'd love to see your wild projections!
Looking for Crude bounce from 69$ to 73$ CL!Looking for Crude bounce from 69$ to 73$ CL!
Looking for Crude bounce from 69$ to 73$ CL!
