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QM1! trade ideas

The current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slightThe current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slightly bullish due to the following factors: Inventory Trends: While there was a smaller-than-expected build in crude oil inventories (+500,000 barrels), it contrasts with larger builds from previous weeks. Additionally, gasoline inventories rose, but middle distillate inventories only slightly declined, signaling some supply-demand balancing. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine add a potential "war premium" to prices, but the market reaction has been muted compared to previous years, suggesting limited immediate impact. Chinese Demand: Signs of improving demand from China—a major oil consumer—provide support for a bullish sentiment as global demand stabilizes. IEA Forecast: The International Energy Agency now suggests tighter-than-expected supply, revising its Q4 inventory decline estimate from 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to over 1.1 million bpd. This implies a more constrained market moving forward. However, bearish risks stem from: Perceptions of a generally well-supplied market, potentially capping upside momentum. Reduced war-related price shocks compared to prior years. Conclusion for Traders: Crude oil shows bullish potential, especially if demand signals from China strengthen or inventory draws accelerate. Short-term volatility remains, but opportunities might exist for buying dips rather than shorting, particularly as geopolitical risks and seasonal demand factors play out. ILL CONSIDER SCALING IN EVEN MORE AT EACH GREEN LINE. COT report suggests some bullish momentum for this week
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by OssianH
3
Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL) Short Term May See More DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 10.8.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 10.8.2024 high, wave 1 ended at 66.72. Wave 2 rally ended at 72.89 as the 1 hour chart below shows. It has then turned lower again in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 70.94 and wave (ii) bounce ended at 71.64. Wave (iii) lower ended at 66.94 and wave (iv) rally ended at 69.39. Final wave (v) lower ended at 66.61 which completed wave ((i)). Oil then rallied in wave ((ii)) with internal subdivision of a zigzag. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 70.15 and wave (b) ended at 68.75. Wave (c) higher ended at 71.51 which completed wave ((ii)). Oil has turned lower and structure of the decline looks impulsive. Down from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 70.4 and wave ii ended at 71.24. Wave iii lower ended at 68.57. Expect wave iv to end soon and then it should turn lower in wave v to complete wave (i). Afterwards, expect oil to rally in wave (ii) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 72.89 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for more downside.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Crude Oil - High Tide Pt.2Pt 1 found here . This is an extremely critical market at this time. What must be understood, is NYMEX light crude oil is not its' own independent market, but rather a BENCHMARK for a larger market for crude oil globally, and its' derivatives. Consider a Kenyan bank, that owns a loan on a Kenyan gas station. What is the best instrument to hedge their investment? Well, obviously the answer is NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX gasoline futures. The sovereign bond of gasoline prices so to speak. Examining the market technically, we see that it appears bullish. The market experienced a severe panic in price during 2020, as demand and logistics collapsed in face of a global epidemic. However the price has recovered considerably, due to OPEC controls and the global necessity for this commodity. In fact, the market has even retested attempts made at reaching its 2008 high. Many local market do not have access to global markets as might be expected, such as the NYSE and CME to conduct their day-to-day affairs. This highlights the importance of NYMEX:CL1! globally, not only for the physical delivery of light crude in the United States. But the global marketplace for light crude oil and its' derivatives, such as plastic containers, heating oil and cosmetic products. The reference price for such items by suppliers, is naturally the most liquid benchmark available to them. Which is to say, they will sell their product based on the most available market for their ingredients. A notion common in all business, to be examined at a global level to understand the relevance of this market into the future. This market exists in the United States, which is what underpins the importance of the US Dollar as this principle applies to all commodity and equity benchmarks. Furthermore, the principle of liquidity remains relevant all through history, where commodities as long as trade exists have been priced according to the most liquid benchmark. The relevance of the US Dollar can most clearly be observed in global bond markets. As capital becomes scarce as Quantitative Easing globally comes to an end, and begins to flow towards the USA, creating the rally in $TVC:DXY. Rates in sovereign debt markets in the US and abroad have risen, and prices have fallen. A lack of demand in sovereign debt outside the USA is being realized, as FRED:RRPONTTLD RRP usage has risen since the beginning of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Because the USA is also the global benchmark for interest rates, due to its deep liquidity. Banks all around the globe balance and hedge their local debt based on this proxy market. For all intents and purposes, this is the only game in town. It may seem odd that the price of crude oil in US Dollars has risen, given that the value of the US Dollar has risen significantly worldwide. Inflation domestically might dictate that the price of NYMEX:CL1! should fall, but this has not been the case. There is something beneath the surface, that indicates a deep value in this trade yet to be realised. Despite governments and activist organisations fighting against the product, its relevance in commerce has not diminished. Coupled with the importance of this global benchmark, the whole of oil-based product globally appears as important as ever. The market indicated last week the potential for a turning point, as it has capitulated. Traders should consider the market will likely make another low, but appears to be setting up for a rally.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FPS_Denny
Crude oil signs of basing emergeWTI Crude Oil closed higher overnight at $69.17 (3.21%) on news that production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield had been halted due to a power outage. An escalation in European Geopolitical tensions also supported the rally after the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia. A bullish engulfing candle has formed overnight from just ahead of key support $66.00/$65.00 area, which suggests further upside towards $71.50/72.50 is likely in the sessions ahead.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IG_com
2024-11-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - I talked about the previous low 66.72 extensively and today bears dipped below but bulls bought it with vengeance. We are on our way to 70 and a test of the bear trend line from the October high. I do expect the lows to be in and we go higher from here. Best for bulls would be to make 68 support and keep the market above, below I am probably wrong and we chop more at the lows. comment : If bulls get follow through to 70 tomorrow, bulls are in control again until they fail at the bear trend line (breakout above is possible). I do think the low 66.27 can hold. Right now it’s unclear if bulls are as strong as today looks because it’s only an expanding triangle over the past 5 trading days and bulls could not close today above the daily 20ema which is 20 points above us. So it’s possible that the descending triangle continues for more days before we get a breakout. Not much interest in selling this though. Will continue to long against 67. current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 66 - 70 bull case: Bulls need follow through and test 70 tomorrow. A close above it would turn the market always in long and bulls in full control then. The bear trend line is the next target to break but until that happens, 70 is likely resistance and we go more sideways. Invalidation is below 66.27 bear case: Bears want to keep the trading range at the lows going since they are making new lows. Selling above 69 has been profitable for the past week and until that changes and bulls trap bears, we can expect bears to keep trying. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral but looking for longs when it’s clear that bulls can keep the 1h ema support. Will otherwise wait for market to come down to 67/67.5 and scale into longs. No interest in selling. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying the liquidity grap down to 66.27. The price action there on the very low tf was really interesting. Basically bears just left. Two more quick retries but only made higher lows and then a giant give up bar by the bears for 123 ticks on the 1h tf.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Neutral until bulls do more. 66.72 is still the low to be broken if bears want more downside, otherwise it’s a descending triangle with clear support around 67. It does look like bulls need an event to help them. Every small rip is sold and it’s a matter of time until one side gives up and we see another breakout. Last thing I want to be is bullish on this but until we have a daily close below 67, it’s huge support. Quote from last week: comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls. comment: Huge support around 67 and bears need a daily close below for lower prices. Bulls a daily close above 69 for 70 and potentially 70.4. No more magic to it and I won’t make stuff up for the fun of it. Market has no direction for weeks and the range is tighter than my food exit. As long as market does not drop below 66.72, bulls are ok but it’s really tough to make money as a bull in this. If bears break that price, we go 65 next, followed by 63.5. current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle) key levels: 67 - 71 bull case: At this point I am too lazy to come up with something for either side. I follow the range and past pattern. Last week was bearish and support held. Next week I expect trading above 69-71. I stop being lazy once the given range breaks. Maybe long range missiles onto Russian Oil depots will help this break out. Invalidation is below 66.7. bear case: Either break below 66.7 or give up again. Below 66.7 we see 65.74 and then 65 next. Invalidation is above 69. outlook last week: short term : Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks. → Last Sunday we traded 70.38 and now we are at 67.02. Bad outlook but will probably touch 70 tomorrow or Tuesday again. Probably was just off due to Sunday-Sunday. short term: Neutral. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing worth mentioning.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil - High TideCrude oil is a very complicated market at this time - difficult to see through the fog. Given the second Trump presidency in January of 2025, Russian sanctions on exports and an ever complicated situation in the Middle East, the market appears virtually untouchable. So let's break it down. Given that Trump has been granted a second term as president as of the first week of November 24', this is the single most important variable - and I will elaborate why. The lines of resistance and support on this chart were drawn nearly a year ago yet remain relevant why? Because crude oil to the world, is priced in US Dollars. Any nation seeking to trade their natural resources is looking towards NYMEX, not because it is ideal but because it is LIQUID. This theme is virtually omnipresent in commodities and should be made note of. Regardless of what market a given entity is using to buy and sell commodities - particularly energy - it is priced given the current price of the most LIQUID index. So a sale of Russian oil brokered between China and India will bear some respectiveness to the NYMEX price of light crude oil, regardless of what product is being exchanged. So first, lets try and examine the logistics of UREX crude. As we can see, export of Russian crude oil has declined since it's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This would be expected, given that not only do EU sanctions against Russia specificy against its' ability to trade its' natural resource, but for international suppliers to qualify for insurance in transporting Russian product. This is an extremely difficult notion to quantify, and will only be approximated for the purposes of this essay. It is implicit given the energy security structure of the EU that Russian aggregate product (energy) will be supplied regardless of sanctions, however this agreement becomes more complicated and pricier for the EU when examined from a global perspective. According to the media, Russia controls the marginal barrel of oil globally. This comes as a multi- decennial effort by the Putin administration to isolate Russian oil markets from influence by the US Dollar - a bold effort, for better or worse, has succeeded. Meaning that theoretically Nthrough OPEC, Russia can starve its competitors of profit by keeping the price of oil low enough that only they can produce profit at the margin, even in spite of EU sanctions. An unflagged, or unregistered, fleet of commercial ships has emerged since 2022, which is extremely relevant to the proposed thesis. However given the opaque nature of this commercial fleet cannot be investigated, it will be assumed that they are enabling the commerciality of Russian crude oil globally, having secured a black market outside the realm of commercial shipping typically secured by the largest Navy globally, the USA. The US Navy has ceased to protect commercial shipping in proximity to Yemen, as rebel groups such as the Houthi continue their aggression towards Western flagged commercial vessels. However, it is unclear of the influence of "black flagged", or unregistered and uninsured vessels carrying Russian crude, among other potentially illegal product through the region. This is relevant, because as insurance rates have risen for global carriers, so too have the protests by major carriers against the sanctions placed against Russia. In a purely hypothetical landscape, carriers deemed illegitimate in the Western sphere of affairs have been able to transport product at a lower crude price, at a negotiable insurance rate previously commodified in the Western world. Commercial shipping insurers have at large protested against EU sanctions - unable to compete with the emergent black market. Now we will assume that a Trump presidency will resume the regularity of oil exports and pricing as dictated by OPEC - however there remains several months of "negotiations". We can assume Trump parties have influence over these negotiations going into the January inauguration, yet a critical gap remains. As any nation would, the Russians and Saudis despite OPEC have an opportunity to control without impunity the marginal price of oil - the price at which US producers of crude oil will produce a profit. Historically it would be in the best interest of these nations to produce oil within the aforementioned margins. However, given the global stance against fossil fuels, there is an opportunity for otherwise sanctioned nations to seize a great deal of power over their Western counterparts. Many refineries and wells in the US have been rendered dysfunctional under complex and opaque legal code instituted by the Biden administrations, and are unable to compete against their Russian counterparts altogether. In which case, before a "free-market" administration such as Trump in 2025 can stabilise crude markets globally, OPEC participants could force the price much higher. In spite of sanctions and a lack of negotiations, a elevated crude price would prove disastrous for developed nations such as Great Britain and Germany, who have no choice but to submit to Russian demands - or wait for US oversea exports, the logistics-intensive alternative. In light of rapid and progressive political change, the crude oil market is an absolute hotbox. It is difficult to prove with data and charts what an opaque and mysterious market this is, but one can only assume OPEC has all the data a future Trump administrations has - which indicated unfettered Russian control over the price of crude oil as long as the war in Ukraine continues. Whether peace can be negotiated remains a question for 2025. But for traders looking into commodities for 2025 - expect nothing less than chaos. The introduction of a black fleet complicated the role of OPEC immensely, who may seek over the next several years to integrate this emergent problem back into insurable shipping groups. Either way, EU sanctions have produced a long-term consequence to the market which should be on the radar of any savvy trader. Given the strength of the US Dollar and the consolidation trend in oil, any elevation in price will benefit Russians more than any other financial entity. It seems unlikely as of the time of writing the price will decline any further, as no party stands to gain below $70/barrel. An embargo as seen back in the 70s could push prices well over $100/ barrel, placing EU energy security in dire straits.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FPS_Denny
1